Tour de France Stage 1 Preview

The Tour de France starts with the yellow jersey awaiting the sprinters for the first time since 2020. Light crosswinds are forecast which could just be sufficient to split the peloton too.

The Route: 184km and 1,150m of vertical gain. Welcome to the Hauts-de-France region, literally the “heights of France”, whose highest point is actually hard to determine, a rabbit hole with various claims around 300m. The point is it’s flat despite the name and sprint stage.

There are plenty of familiar roads here from the Four Days of Dunkerque race and other races on the French calendar like the GP d’Isbergues and the GP de Lilliers.

The first marked climb of the day is by the Notre Dame de Lorette war cemetery and notable for the race because of the narrow road up, a pinch point. By itself it’s a small climb 135km from the finish but it’s the Tour and nobody wants to get caught out so it’s a stress point.

Mont Cassel is easier, climbed via the gentler main road rather than the scenic Porte d’Aire, but cobbled and probably the hardest pavé of the day, more of which below. The Mont des Cats is a real climb but Mont Noir is harder and so gets the next rating and both lie right on the Belgian border.

The climbs are notable features, for the racing there are also many changes in direction and roundabouts. Rather than list every micro-feature, note the passage through and beyond Armentières has some potentially hectic points.

The Finish: big boulevards in Lille and flat. Just before 2km to go the route turns left into a narrower road, this is relative but just means a bit less space. Then with 1.5km go to it’s left again onto a big finishing straight.

The Contenders: Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) are the obvious picks, each has a convincing case to win but none are head of each other in part because they’re all just beatable. There’s no dominant sprinter in the sport although Jonathan Milan is here to state his case.

In a second wave of there’s Dylan Groewegen (Jayco) who can still win but he’s 32 and success in World Tour sprints is fading. Jordi Meeus (Redbull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is in form and has Danny Van Poppel for his leadout which counts. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) is worth watching to see if he can find the form of 2024, this time a year ago nobody saw him as obvious pick for the first sprint stage either.

There are more riders in a third wave who might not have the speed to win a straight bunch sprint. Among them Wout van Aert (Visma-LAB) who could still profit if things split in the crosswinds.

	Merlier, Milan
	Philipsen
	Meeus, Groenewegen

Weather: the heatwave that has dessicated France has gone. In comes 21°C, clouds and the chance of rain, more likely in the evening.

The key factor today is the wind, 25km/h from the SW. As a rule of thumb 30km/h is the magic number for crosswind action but 25km/h is close and it’ll gust to more. Crucially the course has plenty of exposed points, whether just open flat roads but also some ridges between Mont Cassel and Bailleul. Plus it’s the Tour where a 15-20km/h breeze has managers stressing, it can be self-perpetuating.

TV: KM0 is at 13.10 and the finish is forecast for 5.40pm CEST. As the opening stage it’s a stressful day and events can happen but with four Saturdays and more of racing, it’s probably safe to ration things and tune in for the finish. Mont Cassel is around 4.00pm.

Postcard from Lille
We’re in Lille and the next town is Roubaix. With flat stages for the grand départ some will be wondering why no Paris-Roubaix pavé? You can imagine the temptation for the organisers, excitement would be exponential plus it promotes their spring classic to a wider audience.

Just as the fear of something going wrong is what lures in audiences, it would keep organisers awake as much as team managers. With rider safety a big topic, sending the Tour peloton onto the pavé was deemed too much.

Philippe Sudres was the Tour de France’s press and public relations chief for decades. He remarked that “a good Tour is one that starts well”. This has become a mantra with organisers ASO.

Lille is hosting the race and wants good news rather than journalists doing pieces to camera outside the university hospital. Crashes can always happen, but if it was on the pavé you can imagine the blame game. An opening weekend without polémique is better.

The race itself is sufficient spectacle and but if Tour race returns to the region for an ordinary stage or two, just as we saw in 2022 after Copenhagen, then expect some pavé.