Amstel Gold Race Preview

66 thoughts on “Amstel Gold Race Preview”

1. There is a hugely popular mass participation event run on Saturday this year. Interested in your thoughts as this is similar to the timetable of the Ronde/Tour of Flanders.

   • Always good to see people enjoying the roads and the route. I suppose for many Dutch riders the combination of the pro race and the hillier Limburg region makes for a big attraction.

   • The Amstel Radler 😉

2. Great post (is it proofread, though?).

   Michael Matthews turns into Michael Rogers, and Lillian Calmejane is rather rethoric?

   Love your blog, small things, like Jesus was on this day you might be a little preoccupied maybe? (Hopefully not in the same way though!)

   Crosswinds would be great – but surely it turns too much this race? – looking at Felline and Kelderman(if allowed up the road), possibly McCarthy as outside favs. Felline and McCarthy looks at form lately especially. Hoping for an outsider, and no bunch. Please ride according to Faith no More.

   • Sorry, hit the publish button on the phone before proofreading… after a long day standing on top of a rickety roof fitting a satellite dish and cabling in order to better watch this race and Monday’s Tro Bro Leon. Matthews and Calmejane get their due mentions.

   • Jesus was more forgiving.

   • Which FNM song: ‘Easy’? Someone ‘From out of nowhere’? Gerrans to get over his ‘Midlife Crisis’? ‘A Small Victory’ or a ‘Last Cup of Sorrow’?

3. Great to find this preview up on a Saturday evening.

   I’m hoping it will follow the trend of the spring and see some favourites attack from afar. If a small group of those riders get up the road it will be difficult to control. Matthews has shown incredible form of late, apart from the win there was a close second after a climb in Pais Vasco, the TT result was impressive over 25km with the climb at the start too. Maybe he even has the climbing form to follow an early move rather than sit tight, given how things have panned out over the last few weeks rewarding the early attackers? Of course the repetition of climbing is a different matter and we’re (hopefully) talking about the likes of GVA, Gilbert and Valverde on the attack.

   It will be interesting to see how teams play things and how it plays out – attack, attack, attack would be lovely for Easter Sunday!

4. When you look at the Amstel Gold results before they added the Cauberg finish a bunch sprint is far from nailed on. It often came down to a small group of attackers that always seemed to include Michael Boogerd and Lance Armstrong. In amongst it though there are the likes of Zabel, Zanini and Musseuw. My prediction is a small group including the riders that have been doing well over the last few weeks – so GVA, Gilbert, Naesen, van Baarle, maybe Stybar – and maybe also Matthews, Colbrelli and ‘Le Coq’ as well. Should be a good and interesting race.

   • Oh and Valverde obviously as well!

   • Interesting, the route has changed but can we see this as a return to the older days of the race? I wonder if there are still too many hills for the likes of van Baarle or Naesen? Since you mention van Baarle Cannondale have an interesting squad, no stars but several strong riders.

     • van Baarle is interesting, if Naesen climbing form is better than in E3 then he’s for sure strong enough to get back from the climbs (his Ruobaix form was very impressive, void of mishaps), but needs a small group or even solo effort to win this.
       Only if riders need to b-e agg-r-e-ssive for these two to do something, but then surely Wellens will go ahead, especially in sheit weather? Small chance of some rain I see, breeze forecast..
       Would love anyone like them to win, anyone but the usual suspects!

       Lance has small chances tomorrow.

   • I missed off the other obvious big favourite too, Kwiatkowski! I was thinking of van Baarle in my mind as quite a small light rider but Wikipedia has him at 6’2 and 78kg so maybe not!

5. Possibly the worst podium girl outfits in pro cycling! I can think of better uses for beer mats… It will be interesting to see the new finish, especially if the breeze is up from the West as the run in is exposed. It would make it hard for a lone rider to stay away unless they have a decent margin off the Bemelerberg. Matthews looks good for this.

   • Well at least they have podium girls. See others have been pressured into having podium boys. 🙂

     • That’s one tradition/anachronism I’d happily see dispensed with.

     • Would be even better to follow the growing Aussie trend, and have Junior’s there to get the chance to meet pros and generate more connection with grassroots cycling.

       • That’s a great idea.

   • Good tip on the wind thanks. However, all the classics to-date have been raced incredibly aggressively. People like Kwiat, GVA, Gilbert will be trying to bust this race open early. It will take a lot of strength and form for a sprinter type to hold on.

6. Gerrans won the Tour Down Under in 2016 actually, but yes, age and a series of crashes meant he’s never got close to the form he had in 2014.

7. That shot of Kwiato.

8. Why rest Sagan? For what? When’s his next big race after today – July? Especially considering that he hasn’t won any big races this season. This seems a decision right up there with him not doing the Olympics.

   I’m hoping the new course will make for a more interesting race. The final pound up the Cauberg was exciting, but the 250km beforehand often weren’t.

   • Inexplicable decision. His next target is probably Tour of Cali but I can’t see how winning one or two bunch sprints in this race can be a target for a rider of Sagan’s pedigree. It’s probably down to sponsor’s (Specialized) expectations to show up in America.
     I am afraid that Sagan is very badly managed. It starts with how his team is build around him (friends and compatriots but no-one who can be of any help when the racing heats up) and ends with decisions like skipping Amstel Gold. If nothing changes in this matter, he is in danger of becoming a nearly man. Given his pure talent and strength his palmares should have one more monument at least and countless other races, where he came second or third due to poor tactical decisions and lack of support at crucial times.

     • Isn’t it more a case of Sagan having aimed to peak for Flanders and P-R and needing some rest after that peak, before rebuilding towards July? He’s been there or thereabouts since MSR, after all.

       • I don’t buy that argument. Gilbert is also going strong since end of February as is Van Avermaet. Keeping the momentum going for one more week wouldn’t have made any difference. I think it is more of a case of poor management and lack of leadership at Bora. In my opinion for Sagan to fulfil his potential he needs a DS with strong charisma, experience and tactical nous. As much as I like Bora, I don’t think that it’s the right environment for him as I see it like something of a big fish in a small pond.

         • +1 like the Olympics last year – Sagan should have been there today.

         • Just so long as the checks are still cashed!

         • Nick has got a very good point, although I personally don’t like the whole *peaking* thing, but it’s not like athletes are prepared like that because professional trainers are a bunch of fools.
           What might sometimes happen is that trainers work with general protocols and received ideas which maybe don’t work with some *very specific* riders – the good trainer (or athlete himself or herself) is the one who gets the perfect tailor-made program for the individual physiology, and that may mean something different from most of the bunch.

           However, this season it’s more about GVA having a very very very special year rather than the other way around. Gilbert himself started to show some prowess in March – when he was far from the level he reached later, anyway, unable to match Alaphilippe and Démare’s climbing punch in Pa-Ni. He started to impress a couple of weeks later, to say the least: not comparable at all with GVA’s winning streak (but we may apply what I comment below about Gilbert’s 2011 season, even if GVA’s case he even more extreme).

           Just have a look to the performances of many multiskilled Classics rider when they were tackling the Ardennes after a strong pavé campaign (and the Het Volk’s curse depends on the troubles everybody’s got to bring form from February to Roubaix, not to speak of mid-April).

           Let’s speak of… GVA himself?

           Nothing relevant until 2010 included. In 2011 he could make a top-ten at Liège, but he had skipped Roubaix and never made a top-ten on the cobbles, despite riding most of those races. In 2012 he looked for earlier form showing himself up as soon as Het Volk, then peaked for Ronde and Brabantse (no Roubaix once again) but was increasingly disappointing through the Ardennes. Same goes for 2013, when he added the Roubaix: note that despite being stronger than the previous year, the early results (Het Volk, Strade Bianche) were similar, hinting at a delayed form growth. 2014 went the other way, in order to maximise Ronde’s chances: it was a second place (just as in the Het Volk in February), but that implied that the Ardennes campaign had to stop at Amstel and the Roubaix was slightly under par, too. 2015 is the last reference year, due to 2016’s accidents, and GVA started a strong build up in March (a step back at the Het Volk), then performing strongly all the way from Ronde to Amstel, via Roubaix (after taking a breath in E3). Once again, the Ardennes didn’t go further than Amstel.

           Even in the case of a rider like Gilbert, with a well proven attitude for keeping a strong form through many weeks, it can be noticed the difference between season where he looked for earlier rather than later form (2008 a fine example of the former, 2009 of the latter). In 2011 he was winning quite soon, but that was also because that year he was so much stronger than the rest that he could win without being at his very best.

         • Actually, Gilbert was a level below Sagan in Feb/early March, which indicates a later build up. But equally, as Gabriele says, different riders might hold their peaks for different lengths of time. I suspect we won’t see Sagan focus on the Ardennes week until he’s won MSR, as it seems unlikely to me that anybody could win both Monuments in the same season nowadays. Even in the past only de Bruyne and Merckx have ever done it.

     • Is Sagan managed at all? I get the impression he does what he wants. Mindless he wasn’t at Amstel Gold.

       • He’s very managed. He’s probably got a bigger entourage around him than anyone else in the sport with an Italian marketing agency handling his endorsements and social media etc.

9. That’s two down the hatch, what a star!! (no spoiler).

10. I find it hard to believe that Valverde didn’t have the legs to go with Kwiatkowski when he bridged.
    How many races has Valverde lost because of his conservative tactics? (Yes, he’s won many and may not have won today, but so often he’s done this.)
    GVA has – finally – learned that those get you a lot of 3rds.
    Rojas, evidently, has learned from the master.

    Nathan Haas still hasn’t learned how to work with other riders – did he really think he would catch Kwi and Gil on his own?

    Couldn’t believe it when Gil took the front with a km to go and assumed that Kwi would beat him no matter what.
    That, however – after all Kwi said about his thinking in the M-SR sprint against Sagan (when Sagan went too soon) – was one of the worst sprints I’ve ever seen.
    He went with 300m to go into a headwind, up a hill.
    I actually laughed in disbelief.
    Delighted for Gilbert.
    And the new course is a definite hit – now, hopefully, LBL will follow suit as so many of us have hoped for so long.

    • +1 I was stunned with Valverde at that moment.

      Rojas must have been out on his feet by the end, but still considering his lack of work, that was surprising.

      I think chill on Haas, they were all dead, it was a case of the strongest two riding away, cohesion for the remnants of a break in that situation is hard to come by. He deserves praise for even being there.

      Agreed on Gil on the front, very surprising to start with – but he completely out psyched Kwiat, counter intuitive tactics – very impressive – just a brilliant race.

    • Valverde’s flaws continue to vex me.

      99% of the time he looks imperious, and his confidence and racing style appears to have become emboldened in recent years. Yet something always goes missing inside of him during the very biggest moments, be it a major one day race or Grand Tour.

      It’s hard to pinpoint the cause, although I suspect it’s primarily mental.

    • Valverde did his Valverde’s. When you are in a group with Valverde, he always has a reason for not riding. GVA complained about “other riders” not helping bridging the gap when it was 9 sec only… Sure Valverde had Rojas in front, a guarantee against the winners of 2 monuments this year, an albasini who won a stage in Itzulia,…
      Agree with your analysis of the sprint, Kwiato launches too early in headwinds, plus a long sprint is in Gilbet’s advantage. He caught 5 meters but that was not enough against such a rider.

      • Dislike Valverde, but he’s won a hell a lot however dislikable his style, so can’t really criticise. Especially can’t use the above to level against him in terms of Grand Tours, partly because he has won one, and it’s more of a beat fair and square in those scenarios – rather than sandbagging and crippling a counter attack as he seems to often do in one days.

    • I don’t think Valverde had the legs yesterday. Kwait noted that him and GvA were both struggling so he went for it.

      GvA’s rough day might negate earlier arguments about Sagan racing Amstel.

      • (It wasn’t that rough? He was still in the top 10 no?)

      • And GVA has no lingering ‘What if’s.

        • Both true. Perhaps not rough but he was struggling somewhat; I think Sagan might have struggled more seeing how cooked he looked at the end of P-R.

11. This was the most exciting edition of Amstel Gold Race I have seen since years.

    And it opens room for questions: Was it really the new course that makes the race faster? A lighter profile brought a stronger effort for the riders. At least they rode 4 hills with full gas, not only 1

    Or to put it differently: If they decide to go on with this course- would the race become static ats some point again? Is it the change that makes a team ride a race tactically in a more flexible way? Or should they just put the Muur of Huy 10 km before the finish to make fleche exciting too?

    3 rd possibility is that they just ride more offensive in 2017. See Kuurne or Wevelgem. No sprint royale anymore

    • +1

      I wonder also whether this is first year magic and whether once teams understand it, could it start to become more predictable? I thought this with Flanders this year, I think Sagan and GVA would have caught Gilbert, and in that case the 100km break wouldn’t have worked out, would this have deterred people from doing similar in 2017? Whereas now, I expect people will try it next year and maybe fail, meaning we’ll be back to the big wait for the final two climbs before long? Will Amstel soon develop into a sprint finish? But it was great agreed.

    • I was wondering the same too. The new course worked but was it the route or the riders? One example from the past was Liège–Bastogne–Liège in 2013 when roadworks meant a course change a few years ago, out went one or two of the more famous climbs and in came some lesser ones but arguably the racing was better. One reason was because the usual script had been torn up, riders had to be on guard so they rushed to the front and in a self-fulfilling way the race began early.

      • I think it will have to be the way the race is ridden in future. If it isn’t you’ll tow a Matthews or Colbrelli to the line and they’ll win. I think it might not be from so far out, that just seems to be Gilbert’s way this year, but the last 3 climbs might become a set piece in the same way as the last 2 are at Flanders.

      • This is really interesting thank you. Maybe the answer is to have constantly rotating routes? How much extra cost would that incur?

    • I think the new route definitely helps getting more dramatic racing, but if a strong team decides to pull for a quick guy, we can also perfectly have a sprint of a reduced bunch. It is up to the riders. For sure the ones of Phil Gil, GvA, Sagan also help getting these interesting scenarii. ANother item that helped yesterday is the wind. On the top of those hills there is always a false flat section, if the wind is not favourable it helps making small gaps created on the hills bigger.
      If i had one comment on the new route is that I wold skip one of the two last climbs (they are not really steep) in order to make the eyserbosweg/Keutenberg part closer to the finish as well as the Cauberg.

      • i have been there a couple of times and it was always quite strong headwind on the final section. Even in the mild september days during the world championships 2012

12. Great race! Phil Gil shoud be the favorite on la fleche beside valverde. With his form, no way valverde can beat him in a one two sprint. I don’t know if it’s me, but i see Gilbert a lot smoother riding he’s new specialized vs the old bmc!

    • This is hard to say – I think Gilbert has lost a little in his sprint and Kwait miss timed today into a headwind slightly hiding Gilbert’s lack of top speed against the best ‘sprinters after long distance’ (ie GVA, Matthews etc) – whether he could take Valverde is hard to say? Actually I’d love to know what the speed differential is between top tier sprinters (Cav, Kittel), the classics sprinters (GVA, Sagan) and those who climb and sprint (Valverde) – how would Valverde fair against Cav in a straight sprint? Is Valverde faster than GVA? Cause I’d expect any of Cav, Kittel, GVA, Degenklob to have Gilbert these days but unsure whether that includes Valverde?

      THE BIG QUESTION – HOW FAST IS VALVERDE?

      • The muy is about positioning and that last burst of power and speed. Phil Gil is seating now in the Captain’s chair!

      • Valverde isn’t able to keep up with the cavs/kittel s or even the second string pure sprinters in a flat sprint.

13. Matthews was very disappointing today.

    • Rather his team was. If you have the fastest guy you’ve got to get him to the finish line, Sunweb should have been on the front as the break was caught to shut down the sort of move that got away and use numbers to keep the pace up and ensure a sprint finish. Instead they were MIA.

      • Kwait only had Golas, Henao from 70km mark and managed to be involved, Matthews should’ve taken things into his own hands far earlier, he still had four members of his team at the Cauberg even though they were a min down by then, but it’s more than almost anyone of the other protagonists had from the 60km mark – even if BMC were only down because of early pacesetting – he must have not had the form not to go with GVA at least in the response to Gilbert – because missing the first move is understandable, but the second also is just poor if he had the legs.

        • Matthews “won” the bunch kick which was actually competitive, so I think the legs were there, just too bad his team were out of position in the critical moments. BMC were doing early pacesetting, but where were Sunweb when it counted? Then the winning movie had so many teams’ top riders involved there was no energy in the chase, and anyway since Matthews was the favourite going in I’m sure the other riders were aware of where he and his team were at all day.

          • “Matthews ‘won’ the bunch kick”.
            Didn’t Colbrelli win that? (sincere question, I haven’t seen the race yet).

          • (Yes Colbrelli won bunch sprint – plus kinda still stand by above statement Augie, if Matthews was so so strong he should’ve at the very least been with the GVA group, with so much happening it was at least 50/50 at that point whether things would come back together and surely too much a gamble for a favourite to bank on his team bringing them back with that much quality up ahead. I like Matthews a lot, but in the debrief if he really had the legs he has to take some/most of the responsibility, he got it wrong)

14. Some classic Movistar tactics in evidence today. Valverde wouldn’t pull to close the gap on the lead group or to follow Kwiato when he bridged. And Rojas tried the whole I’m waiting for my teammate thing. Deserved nothing got nothing. Gilbert and Kwiatkowski, and GVA although he was unsuccessful, showed how to ride one day races properly. We are seeing some really top class riders (those 3 plus Sagan) really on their game this year and it’s a great watch.

    • Will he repeat his 2011 treble? The way he’s been racing and his form, he certainly can!

      • No he’s out. Apparently he damaged his kidney in the crash he had yesterday.

15. Kwiato you dummy. If you had any patience at all you would have won. Your initial burst of pace was more than anything Gilbert had left. If you’d have unleashed it at the right time you win! Here’s hoping you get it right at LBL.

    • Harsh, he made a mistake… so is life no? Kwiato usually on point in those scenarios, he’s allowed one error. Plus credit Gilbert for out psyching.

      • I thought he was a canny finisher, but not yesterday! He knew it too, with that look over the shoulder with 75m to go. Looking at the profile above I wonder if he tried to use the slight dip at 250m to get a flyer. Up against the wrong rider for that.

        • Almost look like he mis-judged the distance to the line. He did take Gilbert aback when he jumped but then Phil quickly realised that Kwiato jumped too early and didn’t panic. Maybe Kwiato should have done a recon of the finish or at least look at google map street view first (though there’s some terrible distortion of distance in street view)?

16. That was the best race of the season so far no? Between that a Flanders?

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