Tadej Pogačar had one rival remaining in Mathieu van der Poel and ejected him on the early slopes of the Oude Kwaremont. Van der Poel did not crack but the gap began to open and the world champion was away. This was the moment the race was won.
It took some time for the early breakaway to form. Eventually a group of 13 were away, notably with Silvan Dillier from Alpecin as a potential relay rider for Mathieu van der Poel and also Sainbayaryn Jambaljamts of the BH-Burgos team, the first Mongolian professional. Imagine a Flemish wrestler taking part in the Naadam?
UAE and Red-Bull were left to pull the peloton but they were halted by a level-crossing and officials when part of the peloton made it through when the red light was flashing. This is against the UCI rules which say passing when lights flash is a disqualification. But just as nobody racing looks at traffic lights when approaching a junction, nobody will look at the level crossing so there’s a grey zone for stopping time, a few flashes can allow a few riders through. The only consequence was it gave the breakaway some added time.
Amid a reported million people by the road and the strijdvlags slapping in the wind all day the peloton had to be on alert. Normally the Eikenberg-Holleweg-Molenberg section sees the race begin to open up and gives teams a chance to fire riders forward in longshot raids or make tactical moves by sending a lieutenant clear. Only Nils Politt was baring his teeth as he towed the peloton and UAE formed a 16 rider group with Tadej Pogačar and his team mate Florian Vermeersch, Mathieu Van der Poel was there, Remco Evenepoel and just in time Wout van Aert made it.
So much for anyone trying to anticipate Pogačar’s moves later, the main move was sailing away with 100km to go and little more than 20km later caught the morning breakaway. Pogačar looked fidgety here, seeming to do more work than others while rivals, notably Van Aert were sat tight.
The penultimate time up the Oude Kwaremont saw Pogačar attack and briefly we got the “big four” billing as he went clear with Van der Poel, Evenepoel and Van Aert. But it was fleeting as Van Aert was distanced. Next came the Paterberg and Evenepoel was ejected here to leave two riders in the lead.
Evenepoel was not dejected and began a long time trial to get back to Pogačar and Van der Poel. He could do nothing else as Van Aert and Mads Pedersen were behind, to continue guaranteed a podium finish. He was agonisingly close, a handful of seconds in it for a long time but in splendid isolation all the time. Up ahead his two targets benefitted from a TV moto. Pogačar was anxiously checking where Evenepoel was and adjusting his efforts to keep the Belgian away. Van der Poel was taking shorter, lighter turns but still sharing the work.
The infamous Koppenberg came and went like a mere canal bridge. With the contest now down to two it was like a roulette in a casino and betting on red or black rather than anything more complicated. Pogačar was betting on the upcoming climb of the Kwaremont, Van der Poel staying with him to win from the sprint.
As soon as the final time up the Oude Kwaremont began Pogačar stood up on the pedals and slowly Van der Poel was dropped. He did not crack and apparently had been working on just this scenario in the hope of making a steady effort to pace himself back. But he could not and while the gap was close on the Paterberg Pogačar was clear by six seconds and victory salute included, built this to 34 seconds at the finish.
The Verdict
Star power. If you wanted the stars in action you got it, if you wanted to see displays of power you got it. It was like watching a strong man contest where riders competed like village strongmen to lift barbells sagging with weights; or if you don’t like metaphors a wattage contest.
If we felt we knew the winner it was still interesting to see it unfold because rather than tow the race to the Kwaremont with 60km to go, UAE split it with over 100km to go. And for long Van der Poel was in a winning position, the reveal still came late, the final time up the Paterberg and there was only six seconds in it. But the hierarchy had been established long before.
The Ronde isn’t in danger of becoming a strength competition, it is. It lacks subtlety for this. But whether the organisers can prevent this is not so obvious, teams with the strongest riders still have an interest to make it so hard that everyone else is eliminated. Plus would Flanders Classics have it any other way, after a €395 serving of herring, wines and beer does does a ticket holder in the Paterberg VIP zone want to see Pogačar riding past first, chased by Van der Poel, then Evenepoel, then Van Aert? Would they settle for a group of twenty riding past which could go either way with the peloton behind.
Van der Poel could have tried to play with Pogačar’s nerves but he said it’s not his style. After all he wasn’t a limpet who’d latched on from the early breakaway, he too was racing to win and had to hope it was Pogačar who would crack. We may view their rivalry in columns of wins and losses but for them there’s more in terms of self-respect.
Many were keen to see how the Olympic champion might fare a in big one day race and Remco Evenepoel had a great day. Apparently he’d wanted to ride this before when at Soudal but management said no and a little more practice on the Paterberg could have seen him in contact with the lead two, if only until the next time but still. Indeed if this were a wattage contest, would Van der Poel come second or Evenepoel?
Van Aert of course finished fourth. But no mishaps this time and Pedersen still has Paris-Roubaix. This Sunday’s race looks like terrain where Van der Poel ought to be impossible to beat. But a year ago we wondered if Pogačar could cope with Roubaix.
It was interesting to me that Evenepoel lost time on the cobbles, whether uphill or flat. He was fine everywhere else. In his long TT effort he wasn’t losing any ground on the paved climbs/ramps. There is a certain way to ride on cobbles, some people float over them, some people hit every one of them. Evenepoel seemed to be more of the latter. I think he lost out, at least on second if not perhaps first, for a want of technique/skill/subtlety rather than power. Its maybe something he can work on and eventually move up on the podium.
Roubaix should be a real slugfest between MvdP and Pogacar, with perhaps Van Aert, Pedersen and maybe Vermeersch clinging on to their coat tails.