Paris-Nice starts this Sunday. Here’s a look at the GC contenders with Jonas Vingegaard and Juan Ayuso at the top of the bill but can their teams control things once the race heads into the hills?
Route Recap
Paris to Nice via the Loire and Rhone valleys. December’s stage-by-stage post looks in more detail. Monday is the only pure sprint stage. Tuesday’s team time trial stage is crucial in a race often decided by seconds. Wednesday’s finish in Uchon is tricky, gaps can open up on the steep slopes but attack too early and a rider risks being ridden down and overhauled. Saturday’s finish in Auron is a ski station summit finish with 7km at 7% and no surprises. Sunday’s conclusion has a new route in the hills behind Nice before a different finish and so is an unknown quantity for the peloton.
There are time bonuses of 10-6-4 seconds.
The Contenders
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) has been third here before and was leading the race last year when he crashed out. This is his first race of the season and a late addition to his schedule. Presumably he’s only starting if he and his team think he can win; last year’s winner and team mate Matteo Jorgenson doesn’t start. His team need the win more than he does as they search for a replacement title sponsor. The squad can put him in the lead from Tuesday’s team time trial onwards and he’s capable of defending and extending his lead but more in the sense of him being able to ride away rather than hustle for time bonuses.
Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) can almost do it all, there are still questions about his abilities and limits in the high mountains. So Paris-Nice suits him well and the form is there too. If he wants to win the big races, a triumph here ahead of Vingegaard wouldn’t justify his recruitment but it would signal that everything is going to plan. The squad look like contenders to win the team time trial which helps but are without Mattias Skjelmose who could have been a useful second foil as the Dane is out with a wrist injury.
UAE come with Brandon McNulty as leader because João Almeida is out with illness. The American gets the keys to the car for the week but how to win? He’s often triumphed thanks to the strength of his team and when rivals have marked others. He saw up close last year how UAE lost time in the team time trial and McNulty isn’t the first choice to snipe time bonuses either. A year ago Pavel Sivakov was co-leader but ended up ill but even in peak form and healthy a win would be a surprise.
Ineos come with a trident of Oscar Onley (pictured), Kévin Vauquelin and Carlos Rodriguez but the first two prongs are likely to be the sharpest for the relatively short climbs next week and sprints for time bonuses. Both Onley and Vauquelin look like one week stage race specialists who can extend their range to grand tours and have a strong chance of the win here. Both riders are new signings and keen to establish themselves with Vauquelin on home roads for the finish as he’s a Nice resident.
A stage winner last year, Lenny Martinez (Bahrain) said he broke all his power records over the winter and has shown good form so far. Normally this would mean big pressure but Paul Seixas now shoulders the weight of French expectations. But how to win overall? He can play the stage winner gadfly role, buzzing and stinging here and there but the GC looks elusive.
Second here in 2021, Aleksandr Vlasov (RedBull) was on the up then but has stalled and become more of a mountain helper. Still one rare win since then was a Paris-Nice stage in 2024. Dani Martinez has been even more discreet but it was in this race that he got his first big win.
Ivan Romeo (Movistar) could win but it would require circumstances to go his way. Movistar did finish second in the Trofeo Majorca’s team time trial and Romeo climbs surprisingly well but it’s hard to see the team winning or Romeo riding away. But if others hesitate he’ll grab the chance.
David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) has been second in 2023 when only Tadej Pogačar could beat him but he’s never quite reached those heights since and the form is short this season. He might not gladly sign today for a top-10 in Nice but it’s a result he ought to aim for.
Mathys Rondel (Tudor) is worth watching as a GC contender too as he can climb with the best on good days. Even longer shots include Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon-CMA CGM) and and Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-QS) who could benefit from a decent team time trial but Vingegaard and Ayuso should still be ahead. Torstein Træen (Uno-X) Harald Tejada (XDS-Astana) and Eddie Dunbar (Pinarello-Q36.5) can play roles too.
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Jonas Vingegaard |
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Juan Ayuso |
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Onley, Vauquelin |
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Vlasov, Rodriguez, McNulty |
Comment
There’s often little in it and we’ve seen riders like Jorgenson jostling for intermediate time bonuses on the opening day to get an option on team leadership and the yellow jersey alike.
This year’s route looks simpler: escape trouble on the first two days then the team time trial will propel a rider from the strongest team in the lead and they can defend from here on. Easy? Only any team loaded with rouleurs to win Stage 3 will struggle to control things thereafter when the race heads for the hills and squads with multiple options like Ineos can try to find openings in the hilly finishes before the set-piece finish to Auron and the final stage on Sunday is a blank canvas to exploit.
TV: France3 for locals and VPN users (email sign-up required) and Eurosport in many other locations. Most stages finish around 5.00pm CET except for Stage 7’s finish in Auron around 3.00pm.
Weather: 20°C this Sunday and staying mild with the chance of rain showers mid-week but all with gentle temperatures and no strong winds forecast.
Circumstances have conspired to make this a less interesting prospect than it might have been, although once the discussion of Strade Bianche dies down there should be a fair amount of interest in P-N. If Jonas was in perfect condition, he would be the overwhelming favorite, but it’s pretty hard to know how he will be approaching the race. Best case scenario, multiple riders are within 20 seconds of each other after the TTT and interesting tactical scenarios abound. Worst case, Jonas gets a manageable lead and defends it for the second half of the race with negative racing. I think our best hope is that Ayuso is in incredible form and Visma are forced to be aggressive. I think the GC of both Tirreno and P-N have the potential to be anticlimactic, so the individual stage wins might be where the real fun is found.
Poole was apparently withdrawn from the Picnic squad as still suffering from a viral infection. The teams looks pretty thin without him, and viral problems can persist.
Ouch. Of all teams, Picnic can’t afford bad breaks like that.