A day for the breakaway which means frantic racing for all the riders and teams desperate for a result.
Ras le col: where was the finish line? Notionally it was by the Col du Treuil at the ski resort of Superbagnères. But Thymen Arensman drew it earlier, building up a lead by the final climb that UAE could not bring back and so he had the stage won with 10km to go. At this point he could not be brought back so it was not worth trying to bring him back, a technique refined in the past by another Dutchman Bauke Mollema.
It was lively stage, the breakaway had to wait until after the intermediate sprint to happen but by then Steff Cras, ill and Mattias Skjelmose, a crash, were out of the race. Then on the lower slopes of the Tourmalet Remco Evenepoel was dropped, it was here that in 2023 that he imploded too. Unlike then though he got off the bike and left the race.
Arensman was on the attack with several climbers, including Lenny Martinez who countered to go solo over the Tourmalet and stayed away for the Col d’Aspin but he was slowing on the foggy descents. He did enough to take a lead in the mountains competition with 60 points but Tadej Pogačar is only eight points behind.
Arensman struck out solo on the Col de Peyresourde and built up a lead of three minutes by the start of the final climb. UAE had been working since the Tourmalet only once on the early slopes to Superbagnères they were not barely closing the gap. Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler barely ate into the lead and Tadej Pogačar did not set off in person. Perhaps he couldn’t, one radio station said he was having a jours sans but he matched Jonas Vingegaard with relative ease as the pair left the rest trailing before getting the jump on the Dane for the time bonus and a four second gap. The day started with seven riders within 10 minutes of Pogačar, now it’s four.
The Route: 169km and 2,400m of vertical gain. It’s almost flat to the sprint point as the race crosses the old Lauragais region which is often windy… but not today.
After Revel comes the climb to Saint-Ferréol which has been an intermediate sprint point before, a clue that it’s a short ramp. But it marks the start of the climbing as the race enters the Montagne noire (“black moutain”) hills. Sorèze is almost a mini-Carcassonne with its ramparts and then the first big climb of the day with 7km at a moderate 5.6%. There’s a similar descent to Dourgne.
The Pas du Sant could be the key to the stage, 6km long with the last 3km as the official climb and this upper part is 10% for this segment rising to 15% near the top. But the climbing isn’t over here, there’s a false flat and more climbing to get to the Col de Fontbruno.
The descent isn’t a Schuss into Carcassonne, there are plenty of flat sections and some rises, all on twisting roads where it’s hard to chase.
The Finish: the same final 25km as 2022, a gradual descent through the vineyards and orchards and the plane tree-lined roads into Carcassonne and then a flat finish in town.
The Contenders: a day for the breakaway. Once upon a time this meant some chancers going up the road and someone winning the lottery. Today chances are the winner is a Monument winner on a seven figure contract already. Talking of which Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) can do the latter but others will want to get rid of him mid-stage.
It’s notable how Visma-LAB riders are racing for what looks like consolatory stage wins now but they’re career defining for those concerned. Wout van Aert (Visma-LAB) should be a contender but looks mortal these days. But look for others like Victor Campenaerts, Tiesj Benoot and Matteo Jorgenson who all eased up yesterday, reculer pour mieux sauter.
Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek) is in great form, riding for team mates one day and still having the energy to make his own moves the next. Another American is Neilson Powless (EF) whose form is more erratic but is suited.
The local is Benjamin Thomas (Cofidis) who was caught on the line when the race visited last time. He’s a crafty rider but the climbs today might prove too steep.
Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) has flown under the radar, he might like it like this but it makes him a hard pick for a chainring.
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– |
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Van der Poel, Van Aert, Simmons |
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Powless, Grégoire, Romeo, Abrahamsen, Tronchon, Plapp |
Weather: sunshine and 26°C. The tramontane will blow but the forecast says 20km/h but look out for gusts.
TV: KM0 is at 1.30pm and the finish is forecast for 5.20pm CEST. Tune in early to watch the break form, plenty of teams are desperate for a stage win and many will think it’s either today or Stage 20 to salvage something.
Postcard from Muret
How many cycling champions can you name from Muret? There’s Albert van Schendel and his brother Antoon, Dutch riders who grew up in the area when their parents moved to work on a nearby farm. Antoon won a stage of the Tour de France in 1938 while Albert twice finished 15th overall in the Tour. Solid results, copied from Wikipedia.
Any more? Let’s cross the river because a chocolatine throw over the other side of the Garonne was home to cluster of riders who thrived in the cobbled classics. Can you name the locals from here won several editions of Paris-Roubaix, placed on the podium in Milan-Sanremo, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour of Flanders?
Wikipedia won’t help. The village of Pins-Justaret was home to Frédéric Moncassin, a daredevil sprinter who won two stages of the Tour de France in the late 1990s and wore the yellow jersey. He was also fifth in Paris-Roubaix, third in Milan-Sanremo and second in the Ronde van Vlaanderen. Not bad, but his neighbours went on to better: Magnus Backstedt won Paris-Roubaix, Stuart O’Grady likewise, Henk Vogels who had some top-10s in the classics and more, plus Jens Voigt who took Tour stage wins and finished second in Liège.
Of course only Moncassin was born here. They all shared a link as Crédit Agricole team mates and for a few years made Pins Justaret, Saubens and Labarthe-sur-Lèze home. It made sense to be together for training, especially for foreign riders on a French team. This part of France has good weather, a useful airport and more. The riders moved on, literally with local newspaper La Dépeche writing that O’Grady had gone to Monaco and “too bad for the pubs” of Toulouse.
All this was before riders started clustering in places like Girona, Andorra and Monaco. Picnic-PostNL tries to keep some riders together with housing in the Netherlands. Decathlon-Ag2r has also seen riders gather near its Alpine HQ outside Chambéry. Otherwise it’s rare, cycling might be a team sport but members often train in disparate places.
As long as they report back with training data the location doesn’t matter so much. But the obligation to train matters, many riders move now in search of consistent weather. But training together is often awkward as riders have sessions to complete and these are tailored for each rider and their needs in in the season. So when riders do get an easy day that allows them to ride together it’s not a given they want to meet team mates either. Any more than you might want to spend your free time with work colleagues.
This continues to be a weird Tour. Very curious to hear what really happened with Remco. Anyway, other than Remco being replaced by Lipowitz, feels a lot like 2024. The white jersey/podium battle is still in play, which hasn’t happened for a while. Although I don’t know whether I should feel comfortable rooting for all of the American riders, this stage at least looks likely to have one or two in the mix. Would love to see Powless make a move, but I’m not sure he came into this Tour with the required shape.
By all accounts, mainly his own, Remco is simply running on empty with nothing in the tank. Not surprising after his enforced layoff. There’s simply not enough preparation work been done.
His abandonment made me sad. That last bottle hand off to a kid… I’ve been really rooting him this year. He’s made a remarkable comeback from the winter injuries, something he’s had to do rather too often in his career. I’ll back him once again to make a comeback, but wonder if he should target an Ardennes – Giro – Vuelta programme next year. Unlikely, perhaps.
The gesture with the bottle was lovely – he was clearly in a very bad place but still had it in him to make that kid’s day. It says a lot about him as a human being. I really hope we see him back at his best in races, whether the Tour or elsewhere. Like others we’ve been talking about maybe focusing on the Tour to the exclusion of everything else needs rethinking.
I used to be indifferent towards Remco, but gradually I’ve warmed to him. He seems to be a genuinely nice guy and gracious even in defeat.
His problem is that he is competing against riders that just overmatch him, and – as for UAE/Pog – somehow has been able to find a formula that enables him to run for 7 months without any real dips in the form. Unlike basically any other rider in the world.
So what to do? UAE will likely do their magic on Del Toro and Almeida (still assuming that Ayuso is fed up and will leave), so it will become increasingly difficult for Remco to match his Vuelta crown for the foreseable future. Best bet? Go all-in on the TT. He will likely be the best ITT’er in history if he focus 100%. Better that than another 3 years of wasted GT GC efforts.
@mediummig
I beg to differ. Look at RE’s palmares the last two years.
Yes, he lost out to Gianetti and Vingo in ’24 but it’s not a bad run at all. He is 15 months younger than TP but with 64 wins to his name compared with the Slovenians 103. There’ll be plenty of opportunities to evolve, even while maintaining his TT skills.
I’m very much in the “anyone-than-TP”-fold, and I think it would be a shame to lose the guy who consistently beats TP in the TTs.
Is it also a question of trade-offs and priorities? Is it time he let go of his TT dominance in order to be more resilient overall?
Let’s see. The balance was pretty good last year – if he can be back to that form he can be satisfied. Sustaining it seems to be the challenge.
Sustaining form seems to be everyone’s challenge save for Pogacar.
UAE held up quite well as a team I thought … especially as they missing Almeida. Lipowitz actually seems to look a bit stronger each day.
If I recall correctly you’re Down Under. What time do the stages end where you are?
1:30 am or thereabouts … normally watch the first couple of hours then record the rest for next day.
1.30am finish, luxury pure luxury, 3.30am in NZ.
@LanceR I feel your pain.
Nils Politt – climbing domestique! With no Almeida, everyone else in the team has to chip in, and Politt proved his worth, chapeau!
Ineos had their GC guy help Arensmann to the win, which just about sum things up at Ineos these days.
Remco’s abandonment has deflated a bit the GC interest, but to be honest, he’s been struggling these past days. Whither now young Remco?
Glad for Lenny Martinez to show what he can do, but he still needs to use his head a bit more. The legs are doing fine.
GC guys taking it easier after 3 tough days I guess. A day for other guys to shine.
To have to admire the sport-washing team’s ability to turn big good overall riders into climbing domestiques. Same with Bjerg a few years ago.
As for turning skilled talent into winners. Del Toro has obviously learned a thing or two since the Giro meltdown….
So yesterday’s stage was exactly the same course as 1986 won by Greg Lemond.
Winning time:
1986:
1 LeMond Greg
La Vie Claire 100 6″ 6:06:37
2025:
1 Arensman Thymen
INEOS Grenadiers 210 100 10″ 4:53:3
Last climb:
SUPERBAGNERES (12.13 km, 7.63 %)
1986 | 38:46 | LeMond
| 42:07 | Hinault
2025 | 32:33 | Pogacar
| 34:27 | Arensman
Currently they are over one hour faster than back then. It’s not even the same sport.
I think you’d be hard pressed to find anything that hasnt changed significantly in 40 years. They are 15 to 20% faster, which doesnt sound too much once you consider how much knowledge and technology has changed. By the standards of today, they knew very little about how the body worked, nor about how the rider/bike/air/road interacted. The attitude has also shifted significantly about training from a young age and what being a professional athlete means.
They also used to stay up late drinking wine, if I remember correctly from the book “slaying the badger” or something like that.
Just compare a set of wheels from the then and now!
Rolling resistance! etc.
It’s not the same sport, no sport is the same forever. In 39 years it would be strange if there was no progress, no? Look at fuelling now for a start and that’s just one element. Also, you can’t compare two rides like that, the peloton will ride totally different on two days depending on weather and tactics.
Makes it hard to debate who were better riders though, would Lemond win in today’s racing I wonder?
Fausto Coppi would smoke them all. If you can do it on dirt roads with a single speed (or at best a 3-speed) and still ride out a 15 minute advantage, you would have no problem at today’s conditions.
Not necessarily. If you look at old cyclists, they used to be much heavier, with a more muscular physique, necessary to grind those big gear ratios on heavy bikes. It was also much more an endurance sport, with much less emphasis on explosive bursts. So the Grand Tour winners might more comparable to Ganna or even Politt.
You’re assuming a great old-time rider would be teleported into today’s cycling world exactly as they were generations ago. Imagine instead people like Coppi and Bartali and Merckx and Kelly and Maertens being born in 2005 and growing up with avid interests in road cycling. Some actually might not be as dominant as they were, since their bodies might have been more suited to the old racing. But I think many would be doing things that were unimaginable in the old days.
Ganna and Politt are too heavy even for racing for GC in 1949. Coppi was 68kg, Bartali was 66kg. Around 68kg was the typical weight of a Tour winner up until the last few years. Now riders are a bit lighter due to the reduction in ITT kilometers and the increase in mountain top finishes. This has only happened in the last 10-15 years, but the reduction is not huge.
Aside: the doping era which started in 1990 saw unusually heavy riders win the Tour. Riders that heavy would not have won if the sport was clean.
I think this is a crucial point, betabug. It’s not the same equipment, the same training, the same nutrition, the same science, the same mindsets, the same economic incentives, and so on. Oh, and it’s not even the same road surfaces nor even the same races in most cases.
Bannister ran the first 4-minute mile in 1954. Eleven years later it was done by an American high-school student. By the late 1970s my middling division 2 college CC/track team had two runners who had done it. In middle distance running, there were only moderate improvements in track surfaces and equipment (shoes!) in that time. Training, mindset, and exercise physiology all improved rapidly.
You’re example rather proves the point, rather than detracts from it, as the difference between Bannister and the record now (3:43.13) is only 6.8%. And running (and running tracks) have all the associated improvements in nutrition, technology, physiological understanding etc that have been alluded to in the rest of this thread – so now what ?
You’re comparing a short effort record with the timing of one day’s racing in the Tour, they’re very different things. Running is less of a technical sport and the speed differences are slower so the improvements in aero gains should have a proportionally greater effect in cycling, see the 4km pursuit record which has improved by 13%.
The sub-4 minute “American high-school student” was middle-distance, generational talent Jim Ryun. IIRC, he was c.17 yr old when he ran under 4:00 in 1964.
Ryun was subject of a chapter in the book “The Sports Gene” by David Epstein.
Epstein posits endurance athletes can have two extremities:
— “high vs low starting point” of aerobic capacity.
— “fast vs slow responders” to training.
Ryun, as 2nd year high school student in 1962 (c.15 yr old), and his FIRST year of running, progressed from a mediocre 5:38 mile to an extraordinary 4:08 (!!), and also won the Kansas State championship that spring. An *extremely* fast responder!
Yet, there are still people who insist the high school boy Ryun, in the early 1960s, in the mid-west agricultural state of Kansas, must have been “doping” .
Coppi rode 50/47 on the front and 15/17/20/23/24 on the back in 1949. They were grinding up the hills, but they had geared bikes. They ran out of gears on any descent.
I’m sincerely curious: how does one know this sort of fact? Are there histories that note this sort of thing down?
Were people as gear-obsessive back then as they are now?
You may well wonder what Gianetti could have done with a young Coppi….
Faster, without a doubt. But better? I can’t help but think that the riders of yore who raced twelve hour stages on a bike with no gears in a wool jersey whilst carrying their own spares did things the modern peloton would get the CBA representative to make a formal complaint about. I wish I could have seen one of those epic stages. Cycling is more than aero bikes and ketones.
Jumping on trains, getting your supporters to beat up the opposition, falling down a ravine and being pulled up by a bunch of inner tubes, sleeping off a drunk and then setting off in the wrong direction – everything’s peachy and there’s absolutely nothing to see here, CBA rep, stop being such a wuss!
Some of the difference is in how the initial part of the stage was raced. There was some film of that stage on Instagram recently, and I noticed that the average speed indicated on screen was saying 30kmh at a point when Hinault was on the Tourmalet. Now, this is a bit rough and ready, but it suggests the average to get from the stage start to Luz St Sauveur was probably ridden at about 35kmh. 70km at 35 vs 70km at 50 is 36 minutes difference – about half the total difference in stage time already lost before the climbing started.
Clearly these days they are climbing the cols quicker than 40 years ago, but the introduction of start to finish TV coverage has also changed how the beginnings of stages are raced and is I think a major factor in the increase in overall race average speed.
Tom J: “Introduction of start to finish TV coverage has changed how the beginnings of stages are raced.”
Yes, but it was already changing by 1990. This was when only the later part of the stages were televised. Before this date breakaways were rare, and as Tom J states, they did not really start racing before the TV started recording the race. The early part of the stage was a leisurely stroll.
One consequence of the lack of early breakaways was that the combativity prize wasn’t a consolation prize for someone in the break. Instead it went to the rider who attacked to win the stage or GC. The super-combativity prize went to some very famous riders. Merckx won it four times (in 1969 as well as Green and Polka-dot), and Hinault won it three times. Even Fignon won this award. That is something I can never see Pogi winning (what would he need to do to get it?).
Superbagneres
1979 Hainault 53:59 ( from luchoncentre ville)
One thing that seems to be unmentioned in the replies to this comment is the difference in race tactics. Getting in the break has become much more competitive, and soft-pedaling until the finale starts once the break has formed is also less common. I hear a lot of riders comment on how furious the riding is currently. That certainly increases the average speeds too, on top of all the technical and food/training advances.
Ah, didn’t scroll down far enough I see now….
I have to say I laugh at those seemingly computing that because Pog did not attack from the bottom of the final climb until the top and win by two minutes again yesterday then he must be clearly “fatigued” or is “cracking” or had a “jour sans”. Can it be he was simply being professional, felt happy to simply defend and still beat everyone anyway save a man who was brave enough to go for the win from far enough out to actually do it? Pog does not need to bring out all his guns and declare war every day. In fact, it would be stupid and self-defeating to do that. He has the gap. And there are more notable stages yet he might have an interest in winning.
Long story short: Pog has done the hard work. All that’s necessary now is to follow if that’s what he chooses to do.
Even if he’d never ever get tired, he also has a team that has to work for him.
Riders said the UAE team were up for winning the stage yesterday and told others this. But it didn’t happen in the end.
Yes, I agree. But the domestics struggled to close the gap in the lead up to the last climb, and at the bottom. Arensman was on a good day and Pogi was feeling a bit tired. So they decided not to go for it in the end.
With Remco out, who do Quickstep unleash today? Anyone like Max Schachmann for the stage?
He’s got a chance but would like a hillier course. But often after a blow like losing a leader the team will encourage riders to go for it rather than waste a day.
The team has already won three stages this Tour. Even with Remco out of the Tour, they can feel it has been reasonably successful.
It is interesting that behind the top two there are three “young” riders. There seems to be a bit of a generation perdue.
Lost generation, did you mean ?
Onley is 22, Lipowitz 24, Vauquelin 24 and Pogacar 26…
So only the ‘generation’ aged 25 missing!
Apart from Pogacar and Vingegaard what are all the rest of the 26 to 30 or so doing … prime years.
Yes, I take your point. After Froome, G Thomas, Nibali, possibly Roglic etc, the 26 – 39 gen were maybe superceded sooner than expected by younger riders in the shape of Pog and Vingegaard
I was looking through your tour notes and I saw this note: “to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the polka-dot jersey the first rider to get 50 points wins €5,000” Did Lenny Martinez win that yesterday?
Yes. It was a bit of a gimmick but he got that and the Goddet prize, €10k in total but of course this is netted off fines etc and shared among staff so he won’t touch much of it.
I really enjoyed this article, particularly its insights and dry humour. Will bookmark inrng and return now each stage.
Congrats, you found the best cycling site on the internet!
I remember thinking something along those lines. It was the tour won by Contador but later corrected to Schleck. Been coming back here ever since.
ha. that’s a good sign.
Just wait til you have Gabriele adding to the comments, which just boosts the quality even more (I still recall a comment of his from several years ago, when he perfectly summed up the tactics and strategy involved in road cycling, ie how these can be used to defeat a cyclist with superior physiology)
This site is without peer in the cycling world.
Great win by Arensman! Like his solo win in the Tour of the Alps earlier this year, it was in bad weather. On the opposite I can also remember him blaming a bad ITT on overheating. Clearly a rider who prefers colder weather. I think the same can be said about Healy, seeing how much better he was without even Sweeny having to almost drown him.
Arensman is one of those riders who over focused on maintaining his weight and altitude camps, which robbed him of all joy in the sport. He switched trainers and now takes a more relaxed approach.
This could be one of the issues with Ineos, the load on riders causing some to go stale, but also the big turnover in coaching staff too.
When Campenaerts is your last rider going up the final climb (he’s been great this Tour), it’s time to start thinking about an overhaul. Kuss doesn’t seem to be the climber her was, Van Aert has been pretty anonymous by his elevated standards and Jorgensen seems to be confirming he’s not quite cut out to be a GT leader (yet anyway).
With Jorgenson the project is meant to be a go at the Giro next year as leader. But what if Vingegaard goes there for a reset instead? It’s a long way away but you can see Visma riders racing more for themselves now.
I agree with you about Vingegaard. Unless something unexpected happens, he is likely to end up being beaten by over 5 minutes, and not win a stage. And the same will likely happen in the Vuelta. It seems that his team don’t believe Pogi can be beaten (hence sending riders into breakaways for stage wins). Surely, as you say, Vingegaard will want to go to the Giro (or Vuelta) without having to compete with Pogi.
We still have 3 HC finishes left. If Pog goes all-out (probably only Gianetti can stop him..), I wouldn’t be surprised if he open a 10 min gap to Vingo and a 40 min gap på #10 in Paris.
And ASO will be left thinking “well…..”
I very much doubt that TP himself would be interested in that. He will want a safe margin to JV, but beside that he will likely be focused on winning those 3 stages. He will win those 3 indeed, but not risk breaking himself in the effort, so I would doubt that the margins will be that large. If he can get to Paris with no more fatigue than so far, he can take a few easy weeks and do an effortless carbon-copy in Spain.
I’ll be routing for Wout to get his mojo back, the Visma squad don’t seem as well drilled as past years. As a Brit Onley is a bright point of this tour, maybe he’s the one INEOS should rebuild around if they’re staying in the sport
If ever there was a parcours upon which he’d “get his mojo back”, Tuesday’s would be glorious!
Talent, ability, class, the ingredients be it 1930 or 2025 only the time changes!
IPT will be one of many teams desperate for a result today given that the GC men will dominate the final week. Maybe it’s too hard for Stewart so Blackmore?
I was also thinking of Blackmore for this.
And if Visma are letting riders go up the road perhaps this is Victor’s turn. Despite yesterday’s success I think we’ll see Ineo attack once more. What choice to they have.
I can maybe see how an architect or urban planning designer might think that big, inset stones acting as a minor traffic separating device in the middle of a road junction is a funky and attractive little detail on the tourist trail.
How in holy hell a race organiser can think it’s a good idea to send a full racing peloton through such a junction, unaltered, is completely beyond me.
Do you wish to pay to remove the obstruction for the day? And put it back when the Tour has passed? And don’t thin they could find another route, since all roads are now like this in France.
They race on public roads. And we should be very grateful the local people have agreed to close their roads so that we can enjoy the race. Without this support, there would be no race.
ASO have removed and replaced whole roundabouts plenty of times in past tours. Do all roads in France now have those randomly set rocks set in concrete in the middle of a junction? I don’t know because I don’t live there. But if they do then I’ve managed to miss seeing them on hundreds and hundreds of bike races down the years. There’s plenty of road furniture these days and for good reasons. Road furniture in itself is unavoidable, I agree. But I’ve not seen road furniture like that. It’s guaranteed to cause a crash if someone rides into it or tries to ride over it.
So van der Poel maybe rethinking a pursuit of the green jersey? 20 pts at the int. sprint….a win puts him in the lead I believe? That’d be fun.
Milan looks toasted. The green jersey is up for grabs if anyone else wants it.
TP will take all three jerseys. He can barely avoid it…
The motopacing to pull Wellens off the front of the break was pretty ugly..
The opportunity was there for all the other riders in the break.
Simmons was pretty salty in his post-race interviews, both about the moto and the tactics of the other riders in the break. On the one hand, I think “what the hell do you expect?” On the other hand, he makes a good point about the negative racing that sometimes makes little sense. The biggest example I’ve seen was Del Toro in the Giro. I mean, you can give yourself a 30% chance to win, or a 0% chance if you don’t work. But it worked for Campy last year, so it’s hard to blame him.
It worked for Wellens, clearly.
In the words of the great Severus Snape…obviously. But both Simmons and Storer were annoyed at Campy who was playing the pointless Van Aert card. Clearly his and Visma’s prerogative, but didn’t turn out to be a good tactic.