Tour de France Stage 14 Preview

The last day in the Pyrenees and the biggest, the breakaway has a good chance today but it depends how Tadej Pogačar feels at breakfast too.

Gravity and levity: another win for Tadej Pogačar. While his closest rivals went for TT bikes, he opted for a road bike as light as could be, even without bar-tape to approach the UCI regulatory 6.8kg minimum. No race radio either, as if he was fighting gravity rather than his peers. He was still the fastest to the first time check on the the flatter part of the course.

At the finish Jonas Vingegaard was the only rider within a minute, second again this time but the result felt like an improvement compared to Hautacam, even if it leaves him now over four minutes down.

Third overall Remco Evenepoel fared worse, 12th on the day. On his TT bike he looked out of place, like a triathlete cycle touring in the Pyrenees, and caught on the line by Vingegaard. The visible became audible when he told FranceTV things went wrong 4-5 minutes in to the climb and he felt almost empty from then on. He remains third overall but only six seconds ahead of Florian Lipowitz. It’s not an easy Tour, his interrupted winter is weighing on him while Lipowitz is on the up and the two might be looking sideways at each other given the transfer talk.

Things though were easier at the other end of the race. The time cuts were changed in the morning from 33% to 40% on request of the CPA rider union, supported by some teams. This saved seven riders but surely should have been planned long before rather than sprung on everyone at the last minute. The time cut can be part of the Tour’s lore and we’ll see what today brings.

The Route: 182km and 4,950m of vertical gain. A visit to Pau again, it’s just a useful base for hotels and if everyone is staying here then it might as well start here. Today’s stage copies the route from 1986 where Greg LeMond got the upper hand on his team mate Bernard Hinault to win.

57km across the plains before Pierrefitte-Nestalas and the where the road starts climbing up the Gave de Gavarnie valley. If today is for the climbers the first hour will be hard going as they try to infiltrate the breakaway all while turning a 54T chainring or bigger.

The Col du Tourmalet is a long steady climb, 19km and climbed here via the more scenic side before a reciprocal descent, the drag up to Payolle and then the shorter side up the Col d’Aspin, all regular and then a longer descent and some valley roads.

Today’s course has few surprises or traps. Especially the Peyresourde which is climbed again after yesterday’s stage but this time to the pass rather than the right turn to Peyregudes. The descent is long and more gradual, often on big wide roads.

The Finish: 12.4km at 7.3%, right? Wrong, the first rule of previews is not to use the roadbook but to know the terrain and the Col du Treuil from Luchon is a more like a 16km climb with some steep roads out of Luchon just to get to the Tour’s official start point of the climb by the bridge in Ravi.

You can haggle over a few hundred metres here or there but an extra third counts. This makes it a long climb, a 45 minute effort and it is irregular in the second half with some 10% slopes and steep all the way to the line.

  • It’ll be lined with fans and the focus is on the road but this is a scenic climb if you’re visiting, the view from the road looking across to the mountains is sublime, it’s not some industrial ski-station summit finish

The Contenders: another mountain stage, another win for Tadej Pogačar (UAE)? He sighed on French TV when asked if he’d win three stages in a row, saying the goal is to win the race overall, a nod to the breakaway. But that was yesterday and he’ll sound out his team mates to see if they’re up for it. So he’s the obvious pick of course.

The breakaway does have a very good chance as long as it can get away and build up a lead, if it’s 50 riders again with too many passengers while several teams have still missed the move then it may not happen. Simon Yates (Visma-LAB) has a stage already after being able to sit on a move, it’ll be harder this time and those he beat above Le Mont-Dore in Ben O’Connor (Jayco), Thymen Arensman (Ineos) and Michael Storer (Tudor) have a good chance.

Ben Healy (EF) can climb well from a breakaway but he might do better to rest and pick another day that really suits. Carlos Rodriguez (Ineos) is outside the top-10 and well down on time. We’re now in the stage of the race where someone might be N-th overall and their team will toil behind the breakaway to defend this.

Pogačar, O’Connor
Storer, Rubio, S Yates, Kuss, Skjelmose, Arensman

Weather: all change, 18°C and cloudy with the chance of rain.

TV: KM0 is at 12.15pm the finish is forecast for 5.25pm CEST. Tune in early watch the breakaways form.

Postcard from Superbagnères
The Tour de France is a palimpsest and today it gets to write a new story on the climb to Superbagnères. The last visit was in 1989. The long absence has been logistical, the Pique river had rickety bridges unsuitable for the Tour’s gigantisme and and new bridges have been installed. Now the Tour can pass today and trucks to supply the buildings at the top the rest of the year.

1989 is often held up as the best Tour de France ever, others say 1964. Fortunately Nobody has to decide between them, both vintages can be savoured today. Just as 1986 and 1987 were good too. 1989 is celebrated today for the eight second winning margin in Paris in favour of LeMond. But that was the conclusion, it was all that came before that made it so good. It started as an open race where some had the previous year’s winner Pedro Delgado as their pick, others liked Charly Mottet. Pre-race previews were uncertain, to read them today is to read a list of contenders with little ranking.

Neither LeMond nor Fignon were favourites, both had been troubled by serious injuries and the notion that their best days were long past, even if Fignon had just won the Giro which then finished three weeks before the Tour started. LeMond recovered in the Giro too with second place in the final time trial. Especially as his ADR team weren’t supposed to start the Tour. The Ariostea team had been invited but in late May decided to opt out of the Tour so LeMond and his ramshackle ADR team were asked if they’d like to start.

The climb to Superbagnères saw Laurent Fignon taking gaining 12 seconds on Greg LeMond to take the yellow jersey by seven seconds, before LeMond reclaimed it, then Fignon for the final days until the Versailles to Paris time trial and that eight second difference. If only things could be so close today.

97 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 14 Preview”

  1. I wonder if Lidl-Trek will come up with a plan to get Milan some needed points for the green jersey. Otherwise when was the last time that we crowned a triple yellow-green-polka dots winner?

    • It’s only happened once before – 1969 with you know who – though there was no polka dot jersey then, but the climbers’ competition existed.

      Apart from Merckx, the only rider to win Green and Yellow in the same year is Hinault in 1979; Pogačar is starting to write a story this year of similar domination to that edition. Will we see only two riders within 30 minutes by Paris?

      Laurent Jalabrrt won green in 1995 and was fourth overall the same year, the last time a green jersey winner was also a genuine contender for the overall.

      Mountains + yellow in the same year is naturally rather more common: it has happened in 1938 (Bartali); 1939 (S Maes); 1948 (Bartali); 1949 (F Coppi); 1952 (Coppi); 1959 (Bahamontes); 1969, 1970 (Merckx); 2008 (Sastre); 2015 (Froome); 2020, 2021 (Pogačar) and 2022 (Vingegaard).

    • Milan at the intermediate sprint? The sprint point is 70km from the start and the road is already starting to climb. It will be very difficult for Milan to gain many points today. His team may do better to let the break go early so it has a chance to get to the finish before Pogi.

      • The valley road to Luz Saint Saveur is only a drag, peaking at maybe 4-5% gradient, so won’t be a problem for Milan. His & Lidl’s bigger problem will be keep a break in check until that point.

    • Merckx is the only one to do it at the Tour, but if I recall he also did at the ‘68 Giro and Rominger and Jalabert did it at the Vuelta. Besides crash/illness, chasing the green/dots is probably the only way Pogacar loses this Tour. Would love to see him try!

  2. @cp – a few days ago you noted David Millar mentioning in commentary that Jonas was on a bad day and I questioned this in the comments thinking it may have just been par for the course of Pog/Vin’s current form – but have since heard multiple experts agree with Millar and yesterdays performance also suggests similar so clearly I was wrong and Thursday was more a jour sans than a true representation of the current level of both riders. It seems Vin’s performance on Thursday was apparently significantly below his best numbers during 2024’s Plateau De Beilles. Interesting to know whether it was heat, his own teams pacing, stress or Pog’s early attack that caused the dip? Impressive bounce back in yesterdays TT though!

    • This is a great bit of knowledge.

      I’m feeling pretty good about my pre race Olney post right now! (Laughing emoji) but I think expecting at podium against this kind of opposition in his first GC TDF is asking a lot – it’s one of the fastest editions of recent years and the climbs of the final week are monsters.

      A top5 is above even highest expectations and marks him out as a serious talent. A top3 would out of this world. My hunch is Lipowitz is stronger (but also older) and Roglic as well as Remco may make a comeback as the race grinds on and experience tells.

      Olney could easily lose huge time on Col De Loze and this race is already a success – in my eyes he’s already exceeded Pidcock as a serious GC prospect.

      • In my mind, Pidcock is not a “serious GC prospect”. Instead, he is a competent hilly puncheur and a rider for breakaways in the mountains. And he is wasting his time trying for GC (his effort at the Giro this year was embarrassing). Of course, others may disagree.

          • I think he left Ineos partly because he didn’t want to grind out a race result by riding steady for three weeks. But he could be suited to the Vuelta with its 20 minute climbs.

            As ever a grand tour contender is paid a lot more than any other type of rider so you can see incentives to try.

          • Nobody farts around in MTB races….Another ‘dumb roadie’ comment……Entirely predictable on here.

            There are cycling disciplines where it’s not just about watts, w/kg and other boring nonsense, but actual skill & technique……

    • If it was he’d surely have been nicknamed ’Cube’ by now. 😉

      Unfortunately it’s Edgar though he is riding a Lapierre Xelius DRS…

  3. After Pogacar and Vingegaard Roglic was by far the best of the rest yesterday. Does that mean he’s improving and can aim for third in Paris.

    P and V have the first two places sewn up but third to tenth is fluid and interesting.

    I had Onley as a punchy LBL type. He’s surprised me.

    It almost looks as if Pogacar could have won the race as a one man team. Possible?

  4. Surely today is a day to celebrate Gs last tour with a reprise of 2011, leading the break over the Tourmalet before finishing nowhere.

  5. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Vingegaard pips Pogacar today. His TT was stronger than I expected and it’s a big ask to expect Pogacar to not have one unspectacular day.

  6. The silence in the media and complete lack of questioning of these performances is just astounding. A VAM of over 2000 mh, estimated power of 500 W, peak form from March till October, winning on all kinds of terrain and crushing the opposition like they were CAT 4 riders is just unbelievable. Guess we need to wait 10 more years like with Team Sky where thankfully everything is coming to the surface with Rozman, Schmidt and Aderlass. Personally I cannot be arsed anymore to watch any races which Pogacar enters.

    • I’m in the same boat. In times of optimization and dialing everything to the t I just can’t believe there’s such a physiological difference between top cyclists that can serve as an explanation to one winning successive mountain stages with margins this great.

      • The gaps between the winner and the rest of the top 10 on this relatively short moutain time trial are comparable to Chamrousse in 2001 and Alpe d’Huez 2004. The difference is those were 32 and 15,5 km long and much tougher! Pogacar was faster than anybody else on the first time check after the flat part while riding the on a road bike, whereas the others were on TT bikes as even Mr Ring noticed. I don’t know what needs to happen till people start raising their eyebrows.

        • That Michelangelo…… what a phoney ! everyone makes a big fuss about that ‘David’ monstrosity and completely ignores that Buonarroti had a power cutter when all the other sculptors had to make do with a chisel.

          That phoney bit of marble ‘sculpture’ should be ground down for road chippings , who enjoys looking at something that is so obviously just a BIG CHEAT?

    • No-one is saying anything since there is absolutely no evidence of any wrong-doing by any of the leading riders. Of course, we can’t be certain they are clean, but we have to accept there are no actual grounds for believing they are doping (aside from the remarkable performances).

      Too many people have an image of cycling that comes from the doping era (c.1990-2007). Performances were mostly close, riders did not peak until late 20s, and only rode to win during a small part of the season. Clearly this does not apply to Pogi.

      What does clean cycling look like? To see this we need to look at the “pre-doping” period 1945-1990. In this period whatever they took did not affect performace. During this period around half Tour winners were clean and half doped with speed. Every top rider in this period broke through to the elite by the time they were 23 at the latest. The top riders performed all year, winning throughout the season (e.g. classics+Grand Tours). And the very top riders could completely dominate the peloton in some races (see the Tour performances of Coppi, Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault). What Pogi is doing is in line with what an elite rider in the pre-doping era looks like.

      If racing is clean (and no-one knows for sure), then this is what clean racing looks like.

      • If anything, modern sports science and salaries make it more likely that a superior rider can dominate year round ad nauseam. Pogacar and Van der Poel being very obvious examples. They have coaches and doctors waiting on them hand and foot so that they know exactly when to train, eat and rest and how much to do of each. And they don’t have to flog themselves in loads of lesser races because they don’t rely on appearance money for pay. So they are less likely to have issues with fatigue. As a result when they turn up they are in a better position than their predecessors to take advantage of their massive good fortune in having better genes than everyone else.

      • Just when do you think corticosteroids and other hormone mediators started to be used in pro cycling? Have you ever heard of “rééquilabrage hormonal”? And when did blood “optimisation” started to be a thing in pro cycling?

        • I was also planning on mentioning Duplantis. Sometimes just somebody comes along that absolutely dominates a sport. Edwin Moses was unbeaten on the 400m hurdles from 1977 to 1987.

          Or it is a small group, like Federer/Nadal/Djokovic and Messi/C. Ronaldo.

        • Pole vault is interesting in that it’s a niche sport that attracts those who aren’t quite the fastest and aren’t quite the strongest. Duplantis was shrewd in his career choice… his 100m is good but was never good enough for olympic gold etc, so he adjusted accordingly. Not everybody has that mindset.

      • ‘Doping’ has always happened John. It may have been ‘simpler’, whether that’s amphetamines or champagne but people have always looked for an edge. Doping didn’t start in the 90’s…

    • I try very hard to avoid cynicism about cycling performances, as I think it can be an easy & lazy trap to fall into, and I strongly believe based on my own experiences racing as an amateur, that there’s a lot more to bike racing results & performance than simple physiology and watts per kilo…but I must admit that I’m struggling with Pogacar 2.0 (ie the rider he has been since the start of 2024) and moreso with the cycling community’s apparent blind acceptance of it…

      I don’t agree with John’s comment that there’s no grounds to believe doping might be taking place – I think there’s circumstances that warrant questioning, and of course the lack of direct evidence has never stopped such questioning of other riders over the last 20 years!
      I also don’t think a comparison of Pogacar & MvdP is fair – MvdP has obviously found a formula to achieve his highest level in one-day races, but he’s not dominating each day for the whole year; in fact he is clearly struggling with the pace of modern racing in stage races – a pace which is largely being dictated by Pogacar.

      • Interestingly, from my experience of amateur bike racing I couldn’t disagree more. Everyone trains, everyone tries their best, everyone hurts. Its just for that effort certain people are able to go faster. Obviously in amateur racing there are more variables, such as work, children and whatever else, that might mean someone with superior physiology isn’t able to do their best.

        • Interesting…so from your racing experience, you don’t think other factors like psychology, skill in positioning, cornering, bike handling (ie things that allow you to conserve energy), an ability to remain calm and relaxed (ie not wasting nervous energy), mental focus & reaction times, tactics & timing, and fuelling/hydration had an effect on the race outcome? It was all just down to underlying physiology?

      • @Davesta totally agree with you. John’s comments are strange with regards no grounds.
        And there is no way MVdP can be compared to Pog – just look at his efforts this Tour and in one-day races earlier this season. He loses in a way Pog doesn’t.
        I have no idea if Pog or others are doping but it’s worth someone having a look.

        • I see MVDP having normal ups and downs, as would be expected. I am suspicious of anyone who has zero issues with recovery for months on end.

          • In the last couple of years when has MvdP had a down? I’ll obviously concede that he isn’t a stage racer and isn’t ever going to win a mountainous race. But when has he ever turned up for a race that he’s considered a favourite for and not blown the doors off it? He never has a ‘it just wasn’t my day’, that someone like Evenepoel might have, in any cyclo-cross race, any addition of Milan-Sanremo, a cobbled classic or a world championship road race that suits him.

          • Come on Richard, you know exactly what I mean. He focuses on relatively few races where he is able to be incredibly strong. He isn’t doing it week after week, stage after stage, all different kinds of stages and races, for six straight months.

    • I find separating the genuine concerns from the conspiratorial fantasies hard to do… are there currently areas where doping is likely outpacing the testing and are seriously concerning the anti-doping authorities?

  7. The CPA, the teams, and ASO must be urgently reeducated on the great sportive potential of time-cuts applied with severity. It would add a good deal of drama to almost every stage, it would enrich the narrative of the race, and it would make arriving to Paris much more of a feat. It would reward committed, enduring riders, over riders with less resisrance and watts. This on the side of scales of making time-cuts really relevant and selective. Anything at all on the other side??

      • Yes, and the idea that Cav showed less effort and less commitment in making those time cuts as often as he did is not credible.
        I’d hope we can all agree that there should be some jeopardy for the likes of Cav and Merlier, but also that riders like that have plenty to offer a GT and there is a balance to be struck.
        I’d be very surprised if Pogi and his obvious and confirmed dominance in this race was not the deciding factor. Thus 33% would be considered adequate in normal circumstances but against a rampaging and motivated cannibal who had just crushed everybody for two minutes plus on the final climb the previous day it could be asking too much just for the sake of sating the bloodlust of some. This could also explain why the decision was last-minute rather than a long time in advance.

        • > I’d hope we can all agree that there should be some jeopardy for the likes of Cav and Merlier, but also that riders like that have plenty to offer a GT and there is a balance to be struck.
          > I’d be very surprised if Pogi and his obvious and confirmed dominance in this race was not the deciding factor. Thus 33% would be considered adequate in normal circumstances …

          A good way to strike the balance could be to tighten the time cut on mountain stages by one or two percentage points, but take the time from the rider finishing 30th instead of the winner.

          This should be reciprocated by tightening a couple of the special rules that apply to sprint stages. Go back to counting splits of one second and restrict the application of the 3km rule to only riders who come down in crashes – GC riders concerned about mechanical failures should choose their equipment with that in mind.

      • The way Cavendish was saved from time-cut elimination back in 2011 was a scandal, and left a big asterisk next to his green jersey and his “35” wins.

    • The super lenient time cut yesterday (after lobbying) was pathetic. The Tour de France is a race. Why should sprinters or anyone else be effectively given a day off whilst the top guys still have to give their all? Had the cut stayed at 33% I believe seven guys would have been cut. Hardly a disaster for the race.

      • Although if Vingegaard had won and the normal time cut applied, only Mezgec and Merlier would be out.

        They used to apply points penalties if a large group finished outside the time cut – ie a group too big to boot out. Perhaps they should have done that for those between 33 and 40% behind?

      • I assume organisers are hoping sprinters can be in the mix for the final stage around Montmartre and does not fizzle out now that GC is all but done.

        • People are just getting fed up with sprinters, the way they condition the race, and the way the rules are taylored and the goalposts moved just for their sake.

          • Well we won’t have to worry much about old-school sprinters with the new climbing in Paris. The way the race is going we’ll see a Lipowitz win on the Champs.

  8. In this spirit, I am favour of the rule of eliminating two riders every day: the last-placed in the stage (within the time-cut), and the last-placed in GC.

    • They did the latter once, in about 1980 ish, as the organisers felt riders were trying too hard to be the lanterne rouge, so from about the fifth to the third last stage the last man on GC was eliminated every day. There was a guy who was last one morning so he attacked from the start (in the days when this sort of thing didn’t generally happen), was away most of the day, got caught near the finish, and he was kept in the race in recognition of his efforts. Then he got eliminated the next day instead.

  9. 2 chainrings for Pogacar seems incredibly optimistic for the breakaway. I would give him 4. There is a chance for the breakaway if they get organised early, aren’t constantly chased by teams who missed it and don’t contain anyone in a decentish GC position. It would also require UAE and Visma to do what they never do and just chill out. I think its more likely that Pogacar will accidentally win.

    • I think the thing working in the breakaway’s favour could be Pogacar wanting to keep his teammates close by. In that case, the peloton will travel at Wellens’ or Yates’ speed, and not Pogacar’s, thus giving the breakaway a chance.

    • At least he *finally* tried to attack Pog! But with everything that’s happened, his injuries, his wife’s statements, etc., the spirit seems a bit muted.

      Don’t get me wrong, this is still a very watchable and satisfying race.

      • He “finally” attacked just like he has on every other non-sprint stage, and lo and behold he lost more time. I would love it if he would not attack again and make UAE earn the Cavendish record instead of handing it to them on a silver platter.

  10. Pogacar is young and seems to be capable of out-classing the opposition. He seems to win as he likes and looks super comfortable.

    Are we in Merckx territory here?

    Could he eventually beat Cavendish’s record?

    • I said to a friend before this tour started that it was my impression that Pog very much intends to take Cavendish’s TdF stage wins record, and that we’d have evidence of that if he racks up wins in the first week. With 5 stages last year and four already this year, it’s unlikely to be “eventually” (as in late in his career). My bet is that it could be in 2028, and more likely in 2029 (before he’s even 30!).

      We’re definitely in modern Merckx territory.

      • I think it would help all debates about whether or not Pogacar makes the tour boring if he shot for 2027…as he said, he doesn’t care if people think he’s greedy. He’s paid to win. That would be an enthralling pursuit to watch IMO.

        Your 2028 bet seems more realistic though…

    • If he wanted he could have yellow, green and dots here and at least two of those easily. Merckx territory. That’s without considering Cav’s record, the Monuments record, number of yellow jerseys, wins in other big races, etc. which must at least be on the radar. Do all that and then he just has to win Paris-Tours to be the goat’s goat.

    • If you look at the stats of young Merckx, he was way more dominant than Pogačar, which is hard to believe. However, in 1969 Merckx suffered a near fatal crash on the track – which actually killed his derny rider – and after that “he was never the same” according to insiders. Mind you: he still won four Tours after that…

  11. Oscar Onley for the stage win? If only because the last winner here was also a Scotsman, Robert Millar. An unrealistic pick perhaps but it’s still great to watch a local-ish boy doing so well.

    And big thanks to Inrng for all the previews (and so much more) here and across the year, we really are so lucky to have such informed content which only adds to my enjoyment of the sport.

  12. Having been a bit flat at the prospect of a dominant rider era (not sure why as this is the history of recent GTs) i’m more upbeat after yesterday. Jonas has got a bit worse and and Pog a bit better, if Jonas was flying and still getting left standing then i switch focus to other parts of the race. I’m curious as to why Jonas has got worse, is he going to be another rider that suffered a big crash and never gets back to their peak level or has something in the training and build up to this years tour not worked out. At present the risk of Pog comes from within at some point his team mates will want more opportunities, it might just be me but he also seems a bit more prickly this year – not surprising but minor pains add up.

  13. Evenepoel is the easiest rider to read in the entire peloton. If he has a bad day, like yesterday, he has those sunken, hollow eyes, like he hasn’t slept in a week. Also more fodder for the “Remco can’t do steep climbs” argument.

    If Pogačar is as good today as yesterday, even riders of the level Arensman/O’Connor/Mas will need 6 to 7 minutes at the foot of the final climb for a stage win.

    In other major news: the merger between Intermarché and Lotto sounds like it is a done deal?

  14. Remco struggling again. Perhaps he’s really a one-day rider? Can’t manage cumulative fatigue in a GT? (His Veulta win notwithstanding)

      • But that was back in December. And didn’t happen before his similar capitulation in the Vuelta a few years ago.

        My sense is that he’s among the best one-day racers (LBL, Olympics, WC etc) but struggles with recovery/resilience in GTs

    • At this point, the rumors of Remco transferring to Red Bull or Ineos will have been refuted, no?
      Lipowitz seems RBH’s future GC star.
      Also not obvious why Ineos would gamble on Remco either, their GC bet on Pidcock didn’t pan out.
      Remco has been held back by a weaker team, but that doesn’t explain the collapses.

      • Pidcock was never a GC rider and never wanted to be. Ineos tried, and failed, to convince him otherwise. Remco missed most of winter because of an accident and has no team. We are not seeing him at his best.

    • Pog will soon revert to the “I have to look tired”-stuff from the Worlds. Puffing some cheeks and pretend to look worried… 😉

  15. Can we, perhaps, leave the doping conspiracy stuff at the door? At least until there is some evidence? I love this blog, particularly since it’s not The Clinic, and we’re currently at the “we just don’t know” stage. It’s absolutely nothing like the Armstrong era, where, even as a relatively casual enthusiast, you’d have to have been completely blind not to see some very odd shenanigans. I get some commentators are peeved at the dominance of a rider, but let’s not start on conspiracy theories. Ta 😉

    • I agree. Being cynical is just a lazy way of trying to look clever.
      Right now we have very little actual evidence to justify finger pointing or tedious posturing online. If we get a Festina or a Puerto style bust, that changes everything. The Sky investigation may turn up something substantial, but even that feels like very old news now.

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