A mountain time trial. We seemed to witness one yesterday and a repeat result looks likely.
Hautacam’s razor: has Tadej Pogačar won the Tour de France? No, he must reach Paris. It’s just the most obvious outcome now. It’s hard to see the plot twist where Jonas Vingegaard gets back four minutes and then defends this; or any rider further down the GC is allowed to take more time and keeps that. Of course an accident could change things but anybody in the business of predicting this should suggest which stage it’ll occur and how.
With today’s stage going to the location of a James Bond film shot, it’s as if 007 has blown up the villain’s lair halfway into the film, it all feels like a bit of a spoiler. We can’t begrudge Pogačar but the suspense has been punctured.
He had help from others. A 50 rider breakaway included Ineos Carlos Rodriguez so EF and Uno-X chased; then Visma-LAB tried to test Pogačar on the Col du Soulor only for them to implode. Perhaps it was worth trying but the results were cruel, at times they succeeded in ejecting their team mates. Whatever the “Plan” they keep referring to has been it did not survive contact with their rival.
On the early ramps of Hautacam Pogačar got a lead-out from Jhonatan Narvaez and without getting out of the saddle rode away. Jonas Vingegaard could only partially match the acceleration in part, picking up speed but not enough to stay with his rival. It was so early on the climb that for a few minutes it looked wise to hold back but soon the Dane’s body language was telling, his head dipping, the pedal stroke slowing. He’d lose two minutes, with Floran Lipowitz closing in at the finish.
There’s still sport to be had. The contest for third place looks tight, Florian Lipowitz is riding well enough to give Red Bull management doubts about signing Remco Evenepoel, or at least they ought to have some by now. We got a scrappy contest with Lipowitz, Evenepoel, Oscar Onley, Tobias Halland Johannessen and Kévin Vauquelin all in a podium race and, THJ exempted, white jersey contenders too. But this is a hard sell.
The Route: just 10.9km but with some details. The start has a flat road leading into a small unmarked climb and then a descent and some twisting roads to Estarvielle where the road begins climbing.
Soon after is the right turn on to the Col de Peyresourde with the first time check. On the way up there’s a steep section through the village of Loudervielle but otherwise this is the steady part of the course up the pass and then taking the right turn to Peyragudes, all on a regular road where the slope eases to 6%.
The finish is only 400m long but it’s the Altiport runway, 14.4% average and reaching 19.5% about a third of the way in. Riders need to save something for here as hold at the same pace as the previous kilometres will make it this section feel long, being able to sprint up can gain time.
This is a very specialist effort, there hasn’t been a mountain time trial in the Tour since 2004. The 2023 Giro had Monte Lussari but there were 10km to the foot of the climb, today has 3km. So while modelling a ride up a climb with few distractions ought to be simple, there aren’t many precedents to copy from for coaching staff.
The Contenders: Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the obvious pick. When thinking about this day ahead of the race it looked most suited to Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) with the Dane not having to worry about trying to follow and match the explosive moves of his Slovenian tormentor but his form, yesterday and the Caen time trial alike suggests he’ll be the runner-up. Still to paraphrase Greg LeMond from 1989, “if he has a bad day and I have a good one“, it’s possible, just. It’s hard to imagine another rider out-climbing both of them.
Note the time cut is 33% today, normally it’s 25% in ASO time trials but it was adjusted before the start of the race. Some sprinters will have to go all out, this is no active rest day.
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Pogačar |
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Vingegaard |
Weather: 25°C and sunny.
TV: Matteo Vercher starts at 1.10pm and Tadej Pogačar starts at 5.05pm CEST. He starts two minutes behind Vingegaard.
Postcard from Luchon
Luchon is at the foot of the Col de Peyresourde, down the other side that is tackled today. But before Luchon, you can turn left to climb the Col de Balès, also known as the Port de Balès. It’s almost 20km up to the pass at 5.5%.
The novelty of the Balès is that it is a relatively new climb. For years it was just a service road for ski lifts and a forestry track. But in 2006 it was tarmacked on the south side to make a full road. Some might lament the pastures and open spaces becoming a highway but the relatively good news is that few have reason to drive over the pass, it’s no shortcut. So it’s there for cycling.
Much of the impetus for this came from François Fortassin, a local politician who died in 2017. He started out as the mayor of Sarp, a village at the start of the Port de Balès and became a sénateur, sitting in the French parliament’s upper chamber. Thanks to influence at the top and the bottom he managed to get the road over the pass reclassified a route départmentale, an official local road. This confers a legal status on the road and defined obligations in terms of gradient, surface and signage and why all roads in France feel the same as they’re made to defined standards.
The Tour came over the pass in 2007 to celebrate this. It was no accident as Fortassin was cycling fan and presided over the “Association des sénateurs amis du Tour de France”, the “friends of the Tour de France” group of senators. This group has been quietly influential, a network of top politicians in support of the Tour de France. And by extension close to the Tour’s organisers ASO. This is where things get tricky as politicians don’t want to be in the pocket of a company but they’re keen to be linked to the party every July which is enjoyed by millions… but also entwined with roadworks, the police and all the tiers of local government in France. This works both ways, politicians linking up with all sorts of agencies but also giving ASO a network of political contacts and access. So just as Fortassin paved the way to open a road, the Tour gets a path into power too.
I don’t know, watching Lipowitz et al could be interesting. I’m curious who might have a chance of winning the Tour after the earth has crossed the 1.5 degree threshold officially…
Any idea roughly what a winning time will be today?
Moncoutié won an ITT climbing to Peyragudes in 2010, but it was five km longer. His time was 33:07. Pog and McNulty hold the KOM for the climb on Strava at 20:53 for the 7.5km climb. I’ll guess Pog wins in under 25 minutes.
600m climb VAM 1800, 20 mins, plus 3km flat, 25 sounds about right, maybe 24:30
When I first saw this stage my estimate was that someone like Pog could go under 25 minutes. So even with a 33% allowance that would make the time cut around 33 minutes, which seems really tough. This is going to be a hard day for Milan et al
Is 3km too short for a bike swap?
Ronan discusses the TT strategies here https://escapecollective.com/optimising-for-the-tour-de-france-mountain-time-trial/
“This post is for paying subscribers only”
Yes, because it’s not flat and there are corners as well. There are still gains to do the first part on a TT bike but they’d be lost in braking, swapping bikes and having to accelerate again. The consensus seems to be not to swap but to tweak the road bike.
The Port de Bales is a fantastic climb but the descent to Sarp is even more epic. I believe this is where Thibaut Pinot’s descending yips first became evident in public?
Yes, beautiful climb. When I did it, the descent to Sarp had recently been given a top dressing of stone chippings…was enough to give me the descending yips too!
Lipowitz looks like the coming man at the moment.
Does the ITT to La Planche des Belles Filles from the 2020 Tour not count as a mountain TT?
I believe inrng was referring to something like a pure mountain TT. That stage had some 30km of flat/rolling hills before the climb…
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-20/info/profiles
Exactly, an uphill finish but lots of regular riding to get there. Same for Combloux or Sallanches-Megève before, not a straight uphill climb but with more etc.
Rodriquez being in the break meant another fast and furious run to the climbs, and in 30C that obviously meant the plans for the day all went to pot and we were left with another junior style racing of teams blowing up, teams chasing their own guys etc until one guy raced away to win.
If Visma know Vingegaard is not 100%, then their tactics make no sense. I suspect Visma have tried to get Vingegaard more like Pogacar with a strong “kick” and be more “aggresive” have messed things up – Mrs Vingegaard’s “Cassandra” proclamation seems to ring true.
Barring misfortune, Pogacar can follow wheels to Paris (not that that is like him) and be the winner of the GC. Others can fight for the podium positions, top 10 etc which the media will follow now with increased interest, but the current situation is something that the race organizers must have dreaded happening. Maybe soon we’lll have 2 weeks of racing like the first 10 days this year.
Good question.
Brings to mind the discourse around Pogacar’s crash and what counts as a “racing incident”
This was meant to be a reply to waldo above
Typo Jhonatan Narvaez
Tell his parents 😉
Lipowitz or Evenepoel to take second place today, though I had Vingegaard starting to chip away at Pogacar’s lead yesterday. The armchair unexpert.
I was dreading a day where they all followed each other, with Tadej trying an attack quite late and Jonas just about following him …. so, I was wrong too, yesterday was more spectacular, but got us the result we all have seen before.
Monte Lussari was two years ago.
It was interesting to note how much things have changed yesterday. Generally through the time I have been watching the Tour (since 1997) mountain stages have been a race of attrition where there would be a moto watching riders getting dropped one by one out of the back of the lead group. And if the top man attacked everyone immediately jumped on their wheel and stayed there until they couldn’t. When Pogacar blasted off yesterday (it was like one of them rocket launches where bits peel off living the main pod) via Narvaez only Vingegaard made any attempt to follow, and quickly realised he couldn’t. The rest know to even attempt to go with him involves dipping way into the red and risking the kind of blow up that involves a painful crawl to the line. So really nobody is even attempting to beat him, because it’s impossible. There are a lot of big mountains this year and Pogacar has already won 3 stages. He could easily top his haul from last year.
In my mind they used to think about attacking with about 2 km to go to thr top … then they started having a think with about 6 km to go.
Now they blast off from the bottom of the climb. What didn’t work for Carapaz worked like a treat for Pogacar
I wonder if this will be Jonas Vingegaard’s last race? Given he has won it twice doesnt seem much point in going on.
Visma were very poor collectively, where was WvA? Thoughts must be turning to transfers, Oscar Onley?
As Inrng said is it really worth Red Bull paying out for Remco when they already have a German rider who looks as if he can win GTs
Kevin Vauquelin did better than many predicted, still dont see he can ever win the race so why are Ineos interested? Ineos were poor again yesterday but then so were most of the teams
We’ll see for Vingegaard. He’s caught in a difficult place, still better than all the riders in the race… except for one so he gets the glare of the limelight of being dropped all the time.
Just as when Pogačar got crushed in the 2023 Tour and needed to reset and focus on the Giro instead, the chances of Vingegaard doing the Giro next year now look higher. For Pogačar the Combloux TT defeat was a defining moment, it lead to several changes in the team. It’s hard to see that for Vingegaard, as if he’s been optimised already and the current version is hard to improve.
Both are slated to ride the Vuelta.
If today is a repeat of yesterday then I dont see how JV can come back. His wife clearly feels it is all too much, he has earnt enough money to not have to work properly again, why not retire to rural Denmark to concentrate on his family? Difficult to see where the motivation can come from, especially with next generation already snapping around his heels. To misuse a quote from British politics “you were the future once”.
He’s 28 , so theres still plenty to offer. The point of being a professional athlete and the motivation is clearly very different to the rest of us. As long as he doesnt go on beyond his declining ability like Froome….Jonas Vingegaard is the second best rider in the world, he good keep winning races where Pogacar isnt involved…..Giro/Vuelta double maybe
A slightly different fall the day before yesterday, and Vinny wins his 3rd TDF.
There’s just too much uncertainty in the TDF to pack it in just because you can beat No. 1 in a head to head contest.
Chances of TP catching JV. He took minutes over the climb yesterday…
Visma-LAB got some of that Mike Tyson quote: “Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face.”
There’s a non-negligible chance that Pogacar wins the green jersey given the remaining parcours. Only one potential sprint stage left (Stage 16, and given the way every day is being raced, that’s not nailed-on) and while there’s some early intermediate sprints, a few will be eliminated by breakaways. Whereas Pog has another 5 mountain finishes (including today) that he could score highly on.
Something to keep the interest up if the yellow jersey is considered done.
if he wins too many jerseys I’m sure the organisers will change the rules to maintain interest in the other competitions – both for audience and participants
Lipowitz having a great race, and surely has great potential, but suggesting that RedBull shouldn’t hire Remco because they have Florian? Remco gives you a proven winner in world championships, monuments, classics, GT stages, GC.