A big day for the breakaway but if the move can’t get clear then it risks being caught by the GC contenders. Today’s course is hard, and harder than the profile and its labels suggest.
Siesta Fiesta: an expected afternoon of torpor got a jolt when Jonas Rickaert attacked from the start and seconds later Mathieu van der Poel jumped across. This caught everyone out, from Lidl-Trek to those dozing in armchairs alike.
It looked like they’d just go for the early intermediate sprint at KM24. Only they planned for more, the idea was to get the combativity prize for Rickaert for the day. They had a four minute lead and kept going… and did not expect to stay out so long.
On a day when many expected to yawn, the open mouth seemed to come from Gianni Meersman, the Alpecin-Deceuninck manager interviewed from the team car by FranceTV. He seemed briefly lost for words when asked what the move meant for Kaden Groves’ sprint chances later on, as if Rickaert and Van der Poel had conspired to attack but not let in the team management on this.
For a long time Lidl-Trek were chasing alone. They had to do enough to cap the lead but all while saving riders for later, there was no point burning up riders to bring the duo back for the advantage of others.
Crosswinds added further to the suspense. First with the bunch splitting under pressure. Second because when it regrouped on sheltered parts the gap to the two leaders widened with the GC teams easing off and no sprint teams taking up the work.
With 6km to go Rickaert was spent and left Van der Poel to go solo. It set up a nail-biter finish. Remco Evenepoel even did a turn on the front for his team. So did other teams who’d normally be expected to lose out in the sprint but contributed to the effort.
Van der Poel was caught inside the final kilometre. With 175m to go Jonathan Milan launched and so did Tim Merlier who got level and then pulled clear for the win to finish a stage ridden at 50km/h.
For Merlier it’s two sprints contested, two stage wins after missing a split once and puncturing two days ago. Arnaud De Lie took third place, a result for someone who has had a difficult season. For all the action, João Almeida quit the race after injuries two days ago, a podium contender and a precious helper for Pogačar out. We’ll see how Rickaert and Van der Poel fare, panache yesterday surely means aches today and the first climbs could be rude.
The Route: 165km and 4,450m of vertical gain, most of it Romain Bardet’s back yard, he’ll be surrendering plenty of Strava KOMs today. There’s little flat road in the first half which makes chasing hard, teams that miss a move will struggle to deploy their rouleurs to help bring it back.
This is a hard course with plenty of climbing and surprises because the labels given to the climbs by the organisers are for illustration only. If anyone just looks at the roadbook they risk getting the course wrong. Teams use software like Veloviewer these days precisely to minimise this risk. Here’s the course in bullet points / recon notes:
- There’s long spin to the town of Riom for the neutral start and then almost the only flat roads of the day to Châtel-Guyon.
- The first climb of the day is over 4km long and starts climbing in town and chased by a lumpy road to Charbonnières. It was a different road but the same place where Julian Alaphilippe attacked in the 2018 Paris-Nice and imploded, the lesson of the day was that the climb was too long for him.
- It’s past Volvic and home of the bottled water factory which can produce 56,000 bottles an hour, 1.74 billion litres of water per year shipped across France and around the world. Here starts the unmarked climb to Tourtoule, 4km at 6% and as hard as the previous one
- Next is the intermediate sprint in Durtol then the city of Clermont-Ferrand and the Baraque climb is hard going, 5km at 7.5% but with 10% at the start and some 12% midway and hairpins too, a 10 minute climb for the fastest. It’s a decisive point in the course because if the break isn’t gone here then a lot of riders could be dropped including GC riders on a bad day. It’ll be familiar from the 2023 route as the Baraque climb leads to the foot of the Puy-de-Dôme
- The route drops back to Clermont-Ferrand and then back out to Charade, the roads used in the French championships in 1998 when the 10th rider was over ten minutes down, it’s a steady ascent with no surprises.
- The next climb is much harder with double-digit gradients out of Ceyrat
- There’s another unmarked climb to the Col de la Moréno, 2.5km at 5%.
- The same again for the road to Rochefort-Montagne amid the volcanic peaks and craters
- The Col de Guéry is really an 8km climb and has 10% towards the top as it winds up past the rock formations
- There’s an unmarked climb after Murol, 3km at 7%
- The Col de la Croix de Saint-Robert is penultimate climb of the day is 8km long with the final 5km at 7%.
The Finish: a descent via hairpins into Le Mont-Dore. Then it’s a wide straight road with a steady gradient all the way to the line, almost for once the climb’s label matches the terrain with 3.3km at 8%.
The Contenders: every breakaway specialist who is suited to the mountains will have picked today which means… Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the first pick. Because if the move takes too long to form there’s a good chance it never happens or just gets a slender lead, so the little glutton will set his team to work and he goes for the stage. We saw this scenario a year ago on the roads to Le Lioran… where Jonas Vingegaard won but that day Pogačar overdid it, today’s finish is less tricky.
Ben Healy (EF-Easypost) has a stage already and can do it again. His win was impressive for several reasons, one was how he went in several moves before the day’s breakaway went clear while plenty of riders could only manage one attack before having to try and cling on to the raging peloton but he’s only 3m55s down on GC. Neilson Powless is one to watch too.
Others who can win from the break have to be able to climb. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain) is suited. So is Roman Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) but there’s a lot of climbing for him, even harder for team mate. Valentin Madouas. Tudor have a triplette in Marc Hirschi, Michael Storer and Julian Alaphilippe but if they make the break winning is hard, especially for the latter.
Pablo Castrillo (Movistar) was 10th in the time trial and climbs well, Ivan Romeo has a shot too. Ben O’Connor (Jayco) lost seven minutes yesterday and 15 minutes down already so has room and probably the need to right things. IPT have outsiders in Joe Blackmore and Alexey Lutsenko.
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Pogačar |
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Powless, Healy, O’Connor, Storer, Castrillo, Blackmore, Martinez |
Weather: sunshine and clouds, 27°C. There’s a chance of rain later in the stage.
TV: KM0 is at 1.25pm the finish is forecast for 5.40pm CEST. Tune in for the start to watch the battle for the breakaway.
Postcard from Clermont-Ferrand
Today’s stage circles Clermont-Ferrand where this evening there will be a firework display in the Parc Montjuzet to celebrate le 14 juillet. Today is France’s national holiday to celebrate the creation of the republic.
What could be more French than a Tour de France stage on 14 July? A French winner today. 15 French riders have won on this day, the last was Warren Barguil in 2017. There’s a reasonable chance of a French win today, more so than most days. This is because there’s no dominant sprinter nor time triallist, which explains results so far. Once the race reaches the high mountains we can expect the GC contenders to get results. So today is open to plenty, including many French riders but others too.
It might be a special day but this doesn’t make French riders any quicker. It’s not like anyone in the peloton needs to be prodded to try win a stage. Indeed the pressure can be a problem, “I hated this day” said Jérôme Coppel, an ex-pro now working for RMC radio. He wanted to win but it meant added questions from the media when there was enough to focus on already.
Home success is good but it’s not essential. There seem to be more articles in the foreign media about the lack of French Tour winners than in France. For many, if not most, in France the race is a festival first and a sporting contest second. As Jean Durry wrote over half a century ago “the Tour is a phenomenon in its own right, that of happy summers”. It’d be happier with a stage winner. But what if no French riders win a stage this year? It’s happened before, in 1926 and again in 1999. As they say in French, jamais deux sans trois.
Will be interesting to see how Evenopoel fares against Onley, Jorgenson and Lipowitz.
Agree. Podium battle should come alive. But the framing of this question seems to underestimate Evenepoel. Intentional or not, this is often how people speak about him. And I partially can see why. I think he’s looked strong on this Tour so far, and apart from a missed move early on has been more astute in positioning than he often is. I think he’ll do fine today. As will the others, I hope, but it’s for them to measure themselves against him.
Though… How can Visma use Jorgenson to aid Jonas? Send him on an attack to draw out Pog, who is down a helper?
Maybe by getting between the yellow jersey and his feed bag? Getting desperate now.
This reader still thinks Vingegaard will overturn Pogacar in the high mountains. That could start today and, if P merits two rings, V merits one or more.
I have never really liked MVDP but yesterday was on the edge of my seat cheering him on. He deserved the win to go with the glory.
Altitude does make a difference. 1300 meters is not high on a relative basis.
I am hoping a french rider wins.
I think you’re right to think Visma may have been planning all week for this and will start their assault today. Aside from riding hard all week to wear out Pog for week three, pushing him in advance of today makes a lot of sense.
And I don’t think it’s an outrageous shout to think Jonas will turn around the gap in the mountains, he’s an exceptional rider and two time winner who was returning from injury last year. You may well be right and if so we should all be excited as it will be an incredible Tour.
The only thing I would say is if you turn out to be right it won’t really be much of a case of ‘I told you so’ rather than a bit of a contrarian luck as all the evidence we’ve seen for well over twelve months points in the other direction aside from Jonas’ injuries last year, ie: Pog dropping Vin at will on every climb since ‘24, Vin openly admitting he did his best climbing numbers last year, many armchair DS’/expert highlighting Pog’s new level, Jonas himself noting Pog’s new higher level (see Netflix TDF and elsewhere) etc etc etc… so the expectation that Pog will ride away with the win makes a lot of sense given there’s very little evidence outside of gut feeling in Jonas’ corner.
But that’s the beauty of sport! We never know! And if Vin does turn this around it will be one of the great victories that we’ll be lucky to witness!
Yes. I think Visma are in a bit of a ‘nothing to lose’ position and may as well go all in whenever opportunity arises – and they can make that opportunity for themselves. Jonas has looked sharp enough in responding to Pog’s attacks on shorter climbs, and Jorgenson is another card to play. Evidence from the Giro suggests they have the appetite for some swashbuckling riding! Could well start today.
I assume Bardet will be in the team car today. I wonder what help he can provide Onley.
Bardet won’t be in the team car but rather the motorbike. He was announced to be working for Eurosport as the moto liaison for the entire second week.
The Little Glutton. Superb!
Yesterday two big guys rode 50 km/h for the whole stage. Seriously impressive.
While watching this I was thinking back to the final chase in Paris-Roubaix. It seems ridiculous that a rider who is 10kg lighter than MVDP could threaten him on a flat road. That should be impossible. But the team of Gianetti and UAE makes it possible.
Not even got to the first rest day and Mauro Gianetti crossed off my Tour bingo card.
And Evenepoel is even lighter than them both, and still faster on the flat. Jurgen Foré makes it possible. Have I done this right? 😉
True. UAE makes a lot possible unfortunately.
If Milan could learn to sprint with his head and chest bent down a few inches lower, his results might be different against Merlier.
Very good article today (behind NY Times paywall) re race day nutrition at EF Education. By coincidence, their interviews and reporting largely took place on the day won by Ben Healy.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6488731/2025/07/12/how-to-fuel-tour-de-france-winning-ride-ben-healy/
Interesting point about the Alpecin team car. Shows who’s really in charge in that team. I wonder if it would have panned out the same had Philipsen still been in the race.
I think todays stage looks potentially very good. If it were in the Vuelta it would be called an ambush stage!
For sure it would have been different if Philipsen was still in. Green for him was a stated team goal, as well as stage win & jersey with Mathieu. With the second goal achieved and the first one evaporated, they basically had nothing left to lose. Some think they could have gone for green with Mathieu instead but I think he’s not the kind of rider that can be motivated to save himself all day and go all out for a 5th place in the sprint jsut to build up points over 3 weeks.
I still cannot believe a rider of Mathieu’s stature is not the autocephalous single leader of a team, and still accepts to be leadout man. He should be wearing the green jersey, Philipsen or no Philipsen.
Watching this years Tour on (HBO) Max is such a pain in the neck. It looks like through this merger or acquisition with TNT the English commentary while streaming in the app is no longer British but American for the most popular races in the calendar – it started with MSR as well as other spring classics, and continues during the Tour. I tried connecting through VPN but the app won’t let me in. Do you have any ideas how to revert to the British commentary? Listening to Hatch and co. really elevated the experience.
Apologies for going (slightly) off-topic, but since the blog is followed by many well-informed readers I thought someone had already experienced this problem and found a solution.
Try using a web browser rather than the app. I have a “German” subscription and that has an option for international ie English language commentary. This is different than the UK commentary
OK, I’ll try that but in the meantime I found a whole thread on reddit where MAX/Discovery+ subscribers from different countries where looking for “Eurosport A-team” that has suddenly gone missing during this year’s Tour. Someone reported it works as usual in the Netherlands, while in Sweden or Germany (or in Poland, like in my case) it’s unfortunately “Marty and Brian” (“B-team”). The story goes it’s because of the subscription model in the UK and the need to intertwine the race broadcast with the ad breaks.
I can switch to English commentary within the app as well but it’s the American B-team (“Marty and Brian”) I’m trying to avoid.
If you’ve got VPN, two good English language options are ITVX (UK free-to-air, last time this year), with Ned Boulting, Matt Rendell and David Millar, plus a decent rotation of other ex-pros, or SBS in Australia, with some good Aussie commentators and ex-pros (Matt Keenan, Simon Gerrans etc). You have to put up with advert breaks for both.
So how many cycling fans in the UK are paying £31 a month for TNT sports then ?
Rob Hatch is the best but the rest of the commentators on there I can take or leave
I’m watching the last year of the free to air ITV coverage which is pretty good apart
from the long ad breaks
Not having a rest day today means that we have almost got to the halfway point with no break, that must impact upon the fatigue levels especially as the racing has been so intense. Has all this impacted on Tadej Pogacar? A bit dubious but no doubt the loss of Joao Almeida is a blow and UAE were not the ever present force yesterday, Tim Wellens was dropped before the end, Tadej Pogacar on his own, not at the front. I think a big fight for the break today, I dont think UAE will willingly chase but Visma might simply to force UAE to do so. Recovering from a mechanical or puncture is going to be problematical
I think losing Almeida could be a problem because so far Yates and Sivakov haven’t looked sparkling so once the yellow jersey group is reduced to ten riders will Pogačar have any team mates there and one who can be effective? He can manage by himself… and possibly just attack out of defence but it’s harder and more risky now for him.
Is the relative anonymity of Yates and Sivakov by design to save them for the second half of the race? Today does look a good one to test UAE though – looks more difficult to control than the conventional mountain stages, although my armchair predictions have been poor so far!
This is going to be a very difficult and demanding day. The roads in the area tend to be ‘grippy’ and there is very little flat. I understand why ASO has to use some stages that are on the dull side, but only the wind added some suspense. Looking forward to an exciting day!
Hoping for a French 1,2,3 today 🙂 This is a Leg Breaker of a stage!
What is nonchalant Roglic up to? Hiding and managing his watt’s in time for an assault in the mountains and gaining opportunistic time here and there to close the gap? Perhaps this is the tactic as he knows he can’t take on the top two favourites via conventional means. Or just now on a lower level, accepting his fate and “enjoying” a lap of France.
It is hard to see him suddenly springing to life … probably more a case of seeing how well he can hang on.