Tour de France Stage 10 Preview

A big day for the breakaway but if the move can’t get clear then it risks being caught by the GC contenders. Today’s course is hard, and harder than the profile and its labels suggest.

Siesta Fiesta: an expected afternoon of torpor got a jolt when Jonas Rickaert attacked from the start and seconds later Mathieu van der Poel jumped across. This caught everyone out, from Lidl-Trek to those dozing in armchairs alike.

It looked like they’d just go for the early intermediate sprint at KM24. Only they planned for more, the idea was to get the combativity prize for Rickaert for the day. They had a four minute lead and kept going… and did not expect to stay out so long.

On a day when many expected to yawn, the open mouth seemed to come from Gianni Meersman, the Alpecin-Deceuninck manager interviewed from the team car by FranceTV. He seemed briefly lost for words when asked what the move meant for Kaden Groves’ sprint chances later on, as if Rickaert and Van der Poel had conspired to attack but not let in the team management on this.

For a long time Lidl-Trek were chasing alone. They had to do enough to cap the lead but all while saving riders for later, there was no point burning up riders to bring the duo back for the advantage of others.

Crosswinds added further to the suspense. First with the bunch splitting under pressure. Second because when it regrouped on sheltered parts the gap to the two leaders widened with the GC teams easing off and no sprint teams taking up the work.

With 6km to go Rickaert was spent and left Van der Poel to go solo. It set up a nail-biter finish. Remco Evenepoel even did a turn on the front for his team. So did other teams who’d normally be expected to lose out in the sprint but contributed to the effort.

Van der Poel was caught inside the final kilometre. With 175m to go Jonathan Milan launched and so did Tim Merlier who got level and then pulled clear for the win to finish a stage ridden at 50km/h.

Embed from Getty Images

For Merlier it’s two sprints contested, two stage wins after missing a split once and puncturing two days ago. Arnaud De Lie took third place, a result for someone who has had a difficult season. For all the action, João Almeida quit the race after injuries two days ago, a podium contender and a precious helper for Pogačar out. We’ll see how Rickaert and Van der Poel fare, panache yesterday surely means aches today and the first climbs could be rude.

The Route: 165km and 4,450m of vertical gain, most of it Romain Bardet’s back yard, he’ll be surrendering plenty of Strava KOMs today. There’s little flat road in the first half which makes chasing hard, teams that miss a move will struggle to deploy their rouleurs to help bring it back.

This is a hard course with plenty of climbing and surprises because the labels given to the climbs by the organisers are for illustration only. If anyone just looks at the roadbook they risk getting the course wrong. Teams use software like Veloviewer these days precisely to minimise this risk. Here’s the course in bullet points / recon notes:

  • There’s long spin to the town of Riom for the neutral start and then almost the only flat roads of the day to Châtel-Guyon.
  • The first climb of the day is over 4km long and starts climbing in town and chased by a lumpy road to Charbonnières. It was a different road but the same place where Julian Alaphilippe attacked in the 2018 Paris-Nice and imploded, the lesson of the day was that the climb was too long for him.
  • It’s past Volvic and home of the bottled water factory which can produce 56,000 bottles an hour, 1.74 billion litres of water per year shipped across France and around the world. Here starts the unmarked climb to Tourtoule, 4km at 6% and as hard as the previous one
  • Next is the intermediate sprint in Durtol then the city of Clermont-Ferrand and the Baraque climb is hard going, 5km at 7.5% but with 10% at the start and some 12% midway and hairpins too, a 10 minute climb for the fastest. It’s a decisive point in the course because if the break isn’t gone here then a lot of riders could be dropped including GC riders on a bad day. It’ll be familiar from the 2023 route as the Baraque climb leads to the foot of the Puy-de-Dôme
  • The route drops back to Clermont-Ferrand and then back out to Charade, the roads used in the French championships in 1998 when the 10th rider was over ten minutes down, it’s a steady ascent with no surprises.
  • The next climb is much harder with double-digit gradients out of Ceyrat
  • There’s another unmarked climb to the Col de la Moréno, 2.5km at 5%.
  • The same again for the road to Rochefort-Montagne amid the volcanic peaks and craters
  • The Col de Guéry is really an 8km climb and has 10% towards the top as it winds up past the rock formations
  • There’s an unmarked climb after Murol, 3km at 7%
  • The Col de la Croix de Saint-Robert is penultimate climb of the day is 8km long with the final 5km at 7%.

The Finish: a descent via hairpins into Le Mont-Dore. Then it’s a wide straight road with a steady gradient all the way to the line, almost for once the climb’s label matches the terrain with 3.3km at 8%.

The Contenders: every breakaway specialist who is suited to the mountains will have picked today which means… Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the first pick. Because if the move takes too long to form there’s a good chance it never happens or just gets a slender lead, so the little glutton will set his team to work and he goes for the stage. We saw this scenario a year ago on the roads to Le Lioran… where Jonas Vingegaard won but that day Pogačar overdid it, today’s finish is less tricky.

Ben Healy (EF-Easypost) has a stage already and can do it again. His win was impressive for several reasons, one was how he went in several moves before the day’s breakaway went clear while plenty of riders could only manage one attack before having to try and cling on to the raging peloton but he’s only 3m55s down on GC. Neilson Powless is one to watch too.

Others who can win from the break have to be able to climb. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain) is suited. So is Roman Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) but there’s a lot of climbing for him, even harder for team mate. Valentin Madouas. Tudor have a triplette in Marc Hirschi, Michael Storer and Julian Alaphilippe but if they make the break winning is hard, especially for the latter.

Pablo Castrillo (Movistar) was 10th in the time trial and climbs well, Ivan Romeo has a shot too. Ben O’Connor (Jayco) lost seven minutes yesterday and 15 minutes down already so has room and probably the need to right things. IPT have outsiders in Joe Blackmore and Alexey Lutsenko.

–
Pogačar
Powless, Healy, O’Connor, Storer, Castrillo, Blackmore, Martinez

Weather: sunshine and clouds, 27°C. There’s a chance of rain later in the stage.

TV: KM0 is at 1.25pm the finish is forecast for 5.40pm CEST. Tune in for the start to watch the battle for the breakaway.

Postcard from Clermont-Ferrand
Today’s stage circles Clermont-Ferrand where this evening there will be a firework display in the Parc Montjuzet to celebrate le 14 juillet. Today is France’s national holiday to celebrate the creation of the republic.

What could be more French than a Tour de France stage on 14 July? A French winner today. 15 French riders have won on this day, the last was Warren Barguil in 2017. There’s a reasonable chance of a French win today, more so than most days. This is because there’s no dominant sprinter nor time triallist, which explains results so far. Once the race reaches the high mountains we can expect the GC contenders to get results. So today is open to plenty, including many French riders but others too.

It might be a special day but this doesn’t make French riders any quicker. It’s not like anyone in the peloton needs to be prodded to try win a stage. Indeed the pressure can be a problem, “I hated this day” said Jérôme Coppel, an ex-pro now working for RMC radio. He wanted to win but it meant added questions from the media when there was enough to focus on already.

Home success is good but it’s not essential. There seem to be more articles in the foreign media about the lack of French Tour winners than in France. For many, if not most, in France the race is a festival first and a sporting contest second. As Jean Durry wrote over half a century ago “the Tour is a phenomenon in its own right, that of happy summers”. It’d be happier with a stage winner. But what if no French riders win a stage this year? It’s happened before, in 1926 and again in 1999. As they say in French, jamais deux sans trois.

96 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 10 Preview”

    • Agree. Podium battle should come alive. But the framing of this question seems to underestimate Evenepoel. Intentional or not, this is often how people speak about him. And I partially can see why. I think he’s looked strong on this Tour so far, and apart from a missed move early on has been more astute in positioning than he often is. I think he’ll do fine today. As will the others, I hope, but it’s for them to measure themselves against him.

      Though… How can Visma use Jorgenson to aid Jonas? Send him on an attack to draw out Pog, who is down a helper?

        • I thought it was a bottle.

          But anyway: this is the kind of story that has two sides and all too often fans can be a tad too eager to take one side´s story as gospel truth. In this case as proof of “the other side´s” evil intentions and unsporting actions.

          • I think it is “Jorgenson” rather than “Visma” who caused the problem. On the whole, Visma and UAE get along reasonably well. There will always be tensions since they are the two key teams in the contest, but they mostly seem to deal with it without too much drama: it is easy to make more of small incidents than is warranted.

          • Yes
            They do this a lot, like they’re the only ones getting bottles”: Fuming Tadej Pogačar tells Visma-Lease a Bike to “pay respect to everybody” after pushing Matteo Jorgenson in Tour de France feed zone clash

            There is a clear picture in road.cc but I can’t seem to attach it

  2. This reader still thinks Vingegaard will overturn Pogacar in the high mountains. That could start today and, if P merits two rings, V merits one or more.

    I have never really liked MVDP but yesterday was on the edge of my seat cheering him on. He deserved the win to go with the glory.

    • I think you’re right to think Visma may have been planning all week for this and will start their assault today. Aside from riding hard all week to wear out Pog for week three, pushing him in advance of today makes a lot of sense.

      And I don’t think it’s an outrageous shout to think Jonas will turn around the gap in the mountains, he’s an exceptional rider and two time winner who was returning from injury last year. You may well be right and if so we should all be excited as it will be an incredible Tour.

      The only thing I would say is if you turn out to be right it won’t really be much of a case of ‘I told you so’ rather than a bit of a contrarian luck as all the evidence we’ve seen for well over twelve months points in the other direction aside from Jonas’ injuries last year, ie: Pog dropping Vin at will on every climb since ‘24, Vin openly admitting he did his best climbing numbers last year, many armchair DS’/expert highlighting Pog’s new level, Jonas himself noting Pog’s new higher level (see Netflix TDF and elsewhere) etc etc etc… so the expectation that Pog will ride away with the win makes a lot of sense given there’s very little evidence outside of gut feeling in Jonas’ corner.

      But that’s the beauty of sport! We never know! And if Vin does turn this around it will be one of the great victories that we’ll be lucky to witness!

      • Yes. I think Visma are in a bit of a ‘nothing to lose’ position and may as well go all in whenever opportunity arises – and they can make that opportunity for themselves. Jonas has looked sharp enough in responding to Pog’s attacks on shorter climbs, and Jorgenson is another card to play. Evidence from the Giro suggests they have the appetite for some swashbuckling riding! Could well start today.

    • I agree that V may well triumph but I don’t expect it will be today, Visma will keep making the race really hard, increasingly so in the mountains and will pick one day to try and put 5 mins into Pog (col de Loze?)

      • I’m a little shocked anyone would put their money on a Vin outdoing Pog based on recent evidence but each to their own! We’ve seen stranger but even so I’m in the 85%Pog 15%vin or ‘anyoneelse’ camp as obviously anything can happen.

        Today is a bit of a wash out, Visma definitely trying something but when you try and it doesn’t come off it can look a little half hearted – some attacks from Kuss and Jorgenson going nowhere so Yates can ride for the stage which I expect he’ll win. Especially with Healy leading everyone out currently… love Healy but his tactics are wild sometimes.

        Maybe Visma have a plan for Loze but could be similar to today, you can have all the plans in the world but if the legs aren’t there things fall flat quickly. Visma’s plan to ride hard makes sense though, what else can they do.

        One big thing for Pog is losing Almeida leaving only Yates as his true mountain domestique while Vin has Jorgenson, Yates and Kuss when things get serious, fortunately for Pog only Jorgenson is a threat outside of Vin on GC.

        • apologies Healy, i forgot he was riding for yellow, have become so used to his riding on the front and helping his breakaway competition

        • I thought today was perfect for Visma. Got a stage win in the pocket, didn’t lose time, exposed Remco’s weakness. I think they have no shot for the win as long as something weird doesn’t happen to Pog, in fact I expect it to be over after the TT. But they’re doing everything they can while not putting all their eggs in one basket. I expect more of the same after the rest day, although they will definitely take one or two big swings at some point.

    • Bardet won’t be in the team car but rather the motorbike. He was announced to be working for Eurosport as the moto liaison for the entire second week.

  5. Yesterday two big guys rode 50 km/h for the whole stage. Seriously impressive.

    While watching this I was thinking back to the final chase in Paris-Roubaix. It seems ridiculous that a rider who is 10kg lighter than MVDP could threaten him on a flat road. That should be impossible. But the team of Gianetti and UAE makes it possible.

  7. Interesting point about the Alpecin team car. Shows who’s really in charge in that team. I wonder if it would have panned out the same had Philipsen still been in the race.
    I think todays stage looks potentially very good. If it were in the Vuelta it would be called an ambush stage!

    • For sure it would have been different if Philipsen was still in. Green for him was a stated team goal, as well as stage win & jersey with Mathieu. With the second goal achieved and the first one evaporated, they basically had nothing left to lose. Some think they could have gone for green with Mathieu instead but I think he’s not the kind of rider that can be motivated to save himself all day and go all out for a 5th place in the sprint jsut to build up points over 3 weeks.

      • I still cannot believe a rider of Mathieu’s stature is not the autocephalous single leader of a team, and still accepts to be leadout man. He should be wearing the green jersey, Philipsen or no Philipsen.

  8. Watching this years Tour on (HBO) Max is such a pain in the neck. It looks like through this merger or acquisition with TNT the English commentary while streaming in the app is no longer British but American for the most popular races in the calendar – it started with MSR as well as other spring classics, and continues during the Tour. I tried connecting through VPN but the app won’t let me in. Do you have any ideas how to revert to the British commentary? Listening to Hatch and co. really elevated the experience.

    Apologies for going (slightly) off-topic, but since the blog is followed by many well-informed readers I thought someone had already experienced this problem and found a solution.

    • Try using a web browser rather than the app. I have a “German” subscription and that has an option for international ie English language commentary. This is different than the UK commentary

      • OK, I’ll try that but in the meantime I found a whole thread on reddit where MAX/Discovery+ subscribers from different countries where looking for “Eurosport A-team” that has suddenly gone missing during this year’s Tour. Someone reported it works as usual in the Netherlands, while in Sweden or Germany (or in Poland, like in my case) it’s unfortunately “Marty and Brian” (“B-team”). The story goes it’s because of the subscription model in the UK and the need to intertwine the race broadcast with the ad breaks.

        I can switch to English commentary within the app as well but it’s the American B-team (“Marty and Brian”) I’m trying to avoid.

        • I think if I had the option for “B Team” without advert breaks rather than “A Team” with advert breaks then I might opt for the former, as the advert breaks are driving me up the wall!

        • I have no idea who Marty and Brian are, but in the US we are forced to watch Phil and Bob plus a really annoying studio show on Peacock. It’s such a huge drop down from the Eurosport coverage we get to watch for the Giro.

          • Agree, Peacock’s broadcast is execrable, nevertheless I subscribed for 1 mos @ USD$14.99 for the nearly ad-free stream. I don’t watch it until my evening, so am able to fast-forward past the dull and low-information “studio” portions.
            I’ve read this is the last year of Peacock’s Tour coverage in USA. I fear it could be even worse next year.

    • If you’ve got VPN, two good English language options are ITVX (UK free-to-air, last time this year), with Ned Boulting, Matt Rendell and David Millar, plus a decent rotation of other ex-pros, or SBS in Australia, with some good Aussie commentators and ex-pros (Matt Keenan, Simon Gerrans etc). You have to put up with advert breaks for both.

      • Except Boulting is terrible, often being clueless about what he is watching and calling it out wrong – eg he will shout excitedly when X is attacking when in fact he’s moving ahead of the peloton to pick up his food bag. He should have stuck to being a reporter.

    • So how many cycling fans in the UK are paying £31 a month for TNT sports then ?

      Rob Hatch is the best but the rest of the commentators on there I can take or leave

      I’m watching the last year of the free to air ITV coverage which is pretty good apart
      from the long ad breaks

  9. Not having a rest day today means that we have almost got to the halfway point with no break, that must impact upon the fatigue levels especially as the racing has been so intense. Has all this impacted on Tadej Pogacar? A bit dubious but no doubt the loss of Joao Almeida is a blow and UAE were not the ever present force yesterday, Tim Wellens was dropped before the end, Tadej Pogacar on his own, not at the front. I think a big fight for the break today, I dont think UAE will willingly chase but Visma might simply to force UAE to do so. Recovering from a mechanical or puncture is going to be problematical

    • I think losing Almeida could be a problem because so far Yates and Sivakov haven’t looked sparkling so once the yellow jersey group is reduced to ten riders will Pogačar have any team mates there and one who can be effective? He can manage by himself… and possibly just attack out of defence but it’s harder and more risky now for him.

      • Is the relative anonymity of Yates and Sivakov by design to save them for the second half of the race? Today does look a good one to test UAE though – looks more difficult to control than the conventional mountain stages, although my armchair predictions have been poor so far!

        • Is the relative anonymity of Yates and Sivakov by design to save them?

          I think this is true for Yates, but I don’t know for Sivakov. I don’t think they are worried about Pog being alone in the last 15km of stages like today since he is excellent at positioning (and the UAE domestics have been dropping near the end regularly in week 1). The worry must be whether Adam Yates will make the last 5-10 riders in the GC group in the high mountain days. And on the last climb, they might not be keen for Adam to pace the GC group.

        • Sivakov has been dropped today, twice. Made it back on the descent first time, but not now. Perhaps ill?

          Meanwhile, Campenaerts and S. Yates are in the break for Visma…

          • I’d heard that as well as the crash injuries, Almeida was ill. Not sure how much to attach to this but seeing Sivakov today reinforces that, he looked bad. Pogačar was strong today but his team did a lot of work and then got dismantled in the final hour.

  10. This is going to be a very difficult and demanding day. The roads in the area tend to be ‘grippy’ and there is very little flat. I understand why ASO has to use some stages that are on the dull side, but only the wind added some suspense. Looking forward to an exciting day!

  12. What is nonchalant Roglic up to? Hiding and managing his watt’s in time for an assault in the mountains and gaining opportunistic time here and there to close the gap? Perhaps this is the tactic as he knows he can’t take on the top two favourites via conventional means. Or just now on a lower level, accepting his fate and “enjoying” a lap of France.

    • After a bad crash, formerly top racers never regain their previous form (eg, Egan Bernal, Chris Froome). I wonder if the cumulative effects of Roglic’s many crashes and abandons have had similar consequences?

      • I should have written “SOME formerly top racers never regain their previous form”. Vingegaard injuries last year were very severe, yet his return to form has been remarkable. Surely age has a big effect on injury recovery. Younger is always better.

  13. In 2021 JV rode in support of PR
    In 2022 & 2023 arriving as GC contender l, we all know what happened.
    In 2024, JV rode with One lung fully operational.
    So, whilst both were arriving fit, JV 2 – TP 0

  14. In 2021 JV rode in support of PR
    In 2022 & 2023 arriving as GC contender l, we all know what happened.
    In 2024, JV rode with One lung fully operational.
    So, whilst both were arriving fit, JV 2 – TP 0

    • Not quite. Pogačar’s preparation for 2023’s Tour was disrupted by his broken wrist at Liège-Bastogne-Liège at the end of a busy Classics campaign.

      Also, ever since Tadej’s first day of racing in 2024 and his 82k solo at Strade Bianche, it’s clear his performance level has gone up. A lot.

    • I mean Vin also punctured both lungs last year so by your couch punditry did he ride on no lungs? I think Vin rode on two fairly operational lungs since has been very open that he did his best numbers last year so I think it’s fair to all riders to say the best man won in 2023 and 2024 and stop the petty squabbling. We’re watching a golden generation, let’s celebrate all their achievements rather than throw shade like teenagers.

  15. Off topic but how is Qinghai worth 75 more UCI points than the Tour of Austria? If teams have the budget like Astana does it’s easy to get points by doing these way off races.

    • Agreed that Astana takes award for getting points in off-the-beaten-path races, and have some of their guys peak for early .1, .pro races.

      They have done well in some WWT races,=,

      In addition, they have been opportunistic, going after points in the Non-podium positions.

      Right now, Astana has 126 races on their schedule for the year: Uno-x, 70, Jayco 72, Tudor 74, Picnic Post 76, Cofidis 105, Arkea 107. This doesn’t consider race days. For non-WT races, the one-day format provides more shots on goal. Obviously, Astana is going for it.

      (There is a slight advantage for the French teams as they have all the French races on home soil, where they statistically have done better in past years.)

      I think there was an expectation that we would hear about funding for next the years during the tour, which likely means, tomorrow the rest day, for Lotto, B&B, Total Energies, Alpecin, Intermarche and maybe more from others likes Unibet, or the new Hincapie team.

    • Politics presumably. There are a few long-standing ProSeries races in Asia that never get startlists of commensurate quality eg. this, Hainan, Langkawi, Japan Cup. Add Beijing/Guangxi in the World Tour and it becomes a relatively high proportion of races run in that federation.

      The situation is not exclusive to Asia, of course, and it could reasonably be argued that the whole ProSeries smacks of a dog’s dinner anyway but it seems most marked there and it doesn’t appear to matter at all that some of those races consistently attract either no or very few of the World Teams.

  16. JV had a duty as a racer to attack Pog on that last slope (last 3k), but just couldn’t be anywhere other than on Pog’s wheel.

    • JV did exactly what he should have done, perfect racing. We’ll find out soon enough if Pog has any weaknesses, today would have proved nothing (unless JV attacked on a climb that suited Pog to a “T” and shipped a few more seconds).

      • I think it’s like a 15-round heavyweight boxing match. JV is just hanging around, losing the early rounds and avoiding the knockout. Visma getting in a few body blows here and there, looking for opportunities. I personally don’t think they will find them (and thus you are correct!), but I think they have done really well to be where they are considering the absolute disaster JV and MJ had in the TT. I see Remco as a more realistic focus, and maybe even a Remco v. Jorg battle at some point.

        • The intriguing thing is seeing Visma send a rider up the road regularly on stages. Yates got the win today but on other days it’s been pointless.

          And yet the futility evokes the 1980 Giro where every day the Renault team would go for the intermediate sprint and set up Pierre-Raymond Villemiane for the win here. Day after day. The rest of the bunch thought they were mad chasing this small prize. Even the Renault riders weren’t sure but team manager Guimard – him again – told them not to argue but do it.

          Until one day when the sprint point was at the foot of a mountain pass. Guimard told them to go for it… and to press on. So the peloton looked on as Renault went beserk for the hotspot sprint. The team went into a long lead-out, all but one Renault riders peeling off one after another and launching Bernard Hinault into the climb and only Panizza could follow, the likes of Moser were caught out. Hinault toppled Panizza and won the race.

          The tactical coup is memorable but it was Nicolas Perthuis who mentioned it the other day in L’Equipe’s podcast in terms of Van Aert’s attack out of St. Malo the other day.

          Are Visma doing the same by patiently firing riders forward to? Or just reduced to stage hunting? We’ll see.

          But the Hautacam finish could settle plenty, tactical finesse is one thing but if Pogačar crushes the Dutch team under his heels it’s another.

    • Colour me presumptuous but I’d guess both he and his team see his duty as a racer somewhat differently to how you do. They have a bit more invested in the concept too.

    • Are you sure that you weren´t looking at a slightly loosely worn helmet after the race?

      But anyway, the only way to find him a helmet that would look good is for EF to find a new helmet sponsor…

  18. Surprised JV didn’t ride to claw back more time on those behind him once he and Pog had the gap. He makes a big effort and all only takes 6s when he could have pegged back all other GC riders by 30+

  20. JV only interested in beating / trying to beat POG. Can’t see it happening myself. I think POG will ride a conservative race for him now as he wants to add La Vuelta to his CV too. He doesn’t need a team around him. He will just use Jumbo

    • Jumbo left the building at the end of 2023. (It just gets more confusing if some people refuse to use the new names while others do their best to keep up.)

      Pogacar doesn´t need a team around him until he needs one. (It may not happen in this Tour, but it will happen in some other race.)

  21. Just so there’s no confusion, while I may have posted a few Anon Y. Mous things long ago, the current fellow doing it here is NOT me.
    I read the recent posts asking me to return but emailed Mr. INRNG to explain why I was declining the request. Vive LeTour!

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