Who needs the Alps and the Pyrenees? The Tour’s reached the first rest day in the city of Toulouse and the time gaps are wide. It’s been a lively, long week.
Christian Prudhomme called these opening stages a trompe l’œil, an “optical illusion” as to glance at them was to imagine them as flat days for sprinters but several have proved to be GC days. Is the general classification with Tadej Pogačar over a minute clear of Jonas Vingegaard an illusion or a settled fact? We’ll get answers in the coming days.
Despite few mountains – yesterday’s Massif central had some but changed little – Tadej Pogačar has now got a minute on Remco Evenepoel and 1m17s on Jonas Vingegaard. 26 seconds comes from time bonuses. Remco Evenepoel lost time on the opening day but otherwise he’s the only GC contender to take time on Pogačar in a direct contest: the Caen time trial won by 16 seconds. Pogačar has aced the first week with two stage wins and no mistakes, while others have fallen away.
There have been skirmishes between UAE and Visma-LAB. The Dutch team haven’t been able to set a trap or an ambush, the first (long) week and the windy stages were not, or could not, be exploited. It’s not like Pogačar is some waif at risk of being blown away in crosswinds. Visma’s repertoire so far includes driving a hard pace to Vire where… to try and keep Pogačar in yellow. The idea is to sap the Slovenian with admin duties, but with enemies like this who needs friends?
Yesterday’s attacks in the Massif central from Matteo Jorgenson came to nothing in terms of time gained but counted more as they left Pogačar isolated. João Almeida is out with injuries but there were reports he was ill too. Pavel Sivakov had a rough time yesterday, dropped and in the gruppetto. Adam Yates was dropped on the final climb. Is there an illness doing the rounds? If he can stay healthy Pogačar could run out of team mates in the Pyrenees. With Matteo Jorgenson over a minute and a half behind him overall Visma can’t play the old 1-2 too convincingly yet.
Vingegaard is shadowing Pogačar, matching all his attacks but over a minute down. There’s so little to go on that parts of the media are venturing into psychoanalysis, as if the form is inscrutable so what about his mind, is he passive-aggressive marking Pogačar by tracking him; or just unable to do more? It’s looked more like the latter but so far there have been no long climbs.
Red Bull tandem Florian Lipowitz and Primož Roglič are over three minutes back. They’ll soon find terrain to suit but at the risk of being runners-up to Pogačar and Vingegaard. The team and its backers crave a win at the Tour as in a stage win but the path to this is not obvious. A podium finish is possible for either but Evenepoel can repeat last year’s place and implies Matteo Jorgenson takes one for the team.
Ben Healy is another winner of the first week, a stage win and now the yellow jersey. He probably won’t keep it for long but there’s nothing to lose. He could dare to go in the breakaway on Thursday to Hautacam while UAE and Jumbo watch each other. If he surrenders the lead then he can keep on targetting other stages, plus he’s now second in the mountains competition, 16 points with Lenny Martinez on 27.
The points and mountains competition have been entertaining already, or at least delivered extra story lines. Martinez sports the jersey like his grandfather once did but he’s only got 27 points and there are nine HC-rated climbs to come, each one has 20 points, except the Col de la Loze which has 40.
Jonathan Milan leads the points competition with 227 points, next comes Pogačar on 163, then Biniam Girmay on 151, Tim Merlier on 150 and Mathieu van der Poel on 128. All except Girmay have had stage wins but the Eritrean has a route to a prize here. The points competition and the location of each day’s intermediate sprint takes on added meaning now given the next sprint stage is Valence on Stage 18 and that’s it. Many sprinters won’t make it over the climbs tomorrow – if they didn’t know this before, some will clock it on their rest day rides – and Paris now has repeat climbs of Montmartre.
On a good day you can see the Pyrenees from Toulouse and while tomorrow’s stage looks fun it’s Thursday’s stage to Hautacam that is on the horizon. Extrapolating from the Critérium du Dauphiné suggests Pogačar can deliver a knock-out attack. But the weakness of UAE in the mountains is notable now and with this, a sense that the gap observed in June has narrowed. Or is that an optical illusion too?
What a great first week and first week of Inrng reports.
This week (and this season) I’ve come away with the impression that Pogacar has now evolved into his final form. Unmatched on almost any terrain, there are just three riders who can hope to beat him. MvdP on the ‘Flemish’ types of terrain, Remco in TT’s, and Vingegaard in the high mountains. Only, on the last point, that is still to be proven this year.
Much to look forward to. I’m ready for more racing, and to see if Healy can hang onto the jersey a little longer, a la Voeckler.
Generally, riders don’t have long in their period of absolute grace. When they are able to do essentially anything. Alaphilippe was briefly able to win bunch sprints, time trials, punchy races and contend for the yellow jersey. Van Aert was fairly briefly able to win time trials, mountain stages and sprint stages. Valverde’s period of contesting bunch sprints, GC and classics was also a relatively small part of his career. It will be interesting to see how long Pogacar stays on this wave of all conquering dominance, before having to concentrate on just one thing.
This is such a good point, and so nice to be reminded of the thrilling racing that trio have served up over the years.
I would say that Pogacar has hit higher peaks in each area than any of the above, so perhaps when the decline begins we’ll be slower to notice. Placing in reduced bunch sprints rather than winning, margins of victory diminishing, a jour sans or two in GC’s but not quite bad enough to lose outright etc etc.
But, barring illness or injury, I don’t think we’ll need to worry about that for a while.
Tadej should be rooting for Healy to emulate Voeckler too. With UAE seemingly weakened, it’ll be to Tadej’s advantage to keep Healy in yellow as long as possible so as to have at least a few days of EF + UAE vs. Visma.
“there are eight HC-rated climbs to come”. The HC climbs are nine!
Fixed, it’s a lot either way.
A fascinating race so far, though get the feeling that there has been a lot of hoopla without much substance. Not sure the desire to create “entertainment” for viewers at home actually makes for a more interesting race, maybe better to let things slowly build to a climax, it is a three week race after all. Oscar Onley deserves a mention, Thursday will show whether he can keep “hanging with the top guys” once the road starts going properly up. Kevin Vauquelin looks as if he will fade (do Ineos see a future GC contender?). Would Remco Evenepoel really benefit from moving to Red Bull? Maybe they can pay him more money but cant see they will give him any more support than he has currently, the assumption must be that he is fighting for third unless there is a crash or other incident.
For the fight for yellow, as Inrng wrote yesterday, Visma will keep on “annoying” Tadej Pogacar which might in the end be a successful strategy, especially as UAE seem to be suffering but equally he could simply ride away up Hautacam and effectively end the race.
Hard to please. Most people are entertained watching the World Champ and last year’s Tour winner trade blows on relatively flat stages in the north of France. Or seeing the World Champ on do-or-die move on a sprint stage. It’s been a lively long week.
If I were Remco it’s an absolute no brainer to move team.
Whether it’s Ineos or Red Bull it’s a win-win-win as far as I can see?
First he earns more.
Second he gets more support.
Third other riders take the pressure off.
But fourth – and the reason I’d take the money if I were him – is that as it stands there’s a chance in some people’s eyes that he might one day compete with Pog/Vin for the TDF and they’re willing to pay for that. There’s also a significant chance he never competes with Pog/Vin nor younger riders coming through which means this is likely to be his most lucrative contract which means you’ve gotta make it count should he never fulfil the dream to win the TDF.
My personal opinion is his best chance to win will be when the current two dip or have a mishap possibly at some point in the next five years before Remco also starts to dip and he needs to be there to snap up the opportunity – similar to Bernal and Evans wins between dominate generations. Especially with SexyAss now on the horizon.
All reasons to move but with it comes expectations and fewer excuses, he’ll have more pressure to show up in July and perform whereas right now he’s got a little pressure release valve with a TT win and sharing duties with Merlier.
I am wondering what sort of time differences we might see in a 10.9 km uphill time trial with a nasty final 900 m.
The illness thing is a bit of a worry.
It’s 11km but a good 25-30 minute effort so there can be significant gaps here. It’s short but also packed with tricky details like the flat start, the small hill, the main road part of the Peyresourde, the more mountain road feel further up in the village and the cruel altiport ramp you mention to finish. It’s not easy to pace.
Notice how almost single handedly Onley is helping Picnic move away from Cofidis and the dreaded drop. It seems that almost every day Picnic are reaping valuable points with Cofidis (or Astana) hardly scoring. Picnic must be praying that their talented youngster keeps his form.
Helped by Cofidis having a discreet Tour so far. Crashes for Coquard and Izagirre, Buchmann’s lost time but it looks hard for him to go in the breaks, Aranburu was a big signing and delivered in the Basque County but looks off since, can he turn it around for the Vuelta?
Cofidis not scoring here or elsewhere. Astana have also been discreet at the Tour, but not in China where they have snaffled up 400+ points in the, ahem, Tour of Magnificent Qinghai.
Onley has done well so far with around 280 points. If he gets a good GC placing, then the Picnic will turn into a banquet, but it’s a risk for the team that might not pay off.
Agree with most guys here it has been an interesting first week but can anyone actually challenge Pogacar? In other news I was really impressed with Mathieu van der Poel over a few days. Yes he is not yet old like most of us “old skool” cycling fans but him and Wout are moving into “the old guard team”. However they are still surprising the pro youngsters and the other teams from time to time.
Come TDF what else can you show us!
Something interesting I learned from a local club rider yesterday, is that Ben Healy is only Irish because he had an Irish grandfather. He has lived in Kingswinford, Shropshire for years, just down the road from me, and completed as an amateur in many local club time trials.
Maybe the piece of paper says Irish, but in reality he is British.
Two firsts for the Brits after a hard day in the volcanic Massif Central!
Dan Martin was similar if I recall. English father and Irish father but grew up in the Midlands and, like Ben Healy, has a noticeable Brummie accent! In Dan Martin’s case, his Irish credentials, in cycling terms anyway, are slightly enhanced by his mother being the sister of Stephen Roche.
Healy’s a good catch but what Ireland really wants is for Pogacar to dig up some Irish ancestry on the Slovenian version of ‘Who Do You Think You Are?’. (A hitherto forgotten ancestor called P. O’Gacar, perhaps?)
Like the time triallist Philip O’Ganna.
It’s also a question of heart and he’s opted for Ireland twice over it seems, presumably a passport as well as sporting nationality.
It’s also notable how many riders that came up through the British system are not riding for Ineos these days.
Ironically, wanting to get out of the country he was born in makes him even more British.
Healy has gone on record saying that he opted to ride for Ireland when the British system preferred to support other British riders rather than him. It was only then that he decided to race for Ireland. There is nothing wrong with doing this, but he did not really choose to be Irish rather than British.
As an aside, it is difficult to know which teenagers will later turn into top riders, and there are only a limited number of riders who can be supported. The nice thing is that it worked out for Healy in the end.
What about the beard? How long since the yellow jersey was worn by a bearded rider?
Every stats cyclist should know this: Alaphilippe 2021. Unless Adam Yates had one in 2023 on the opening day?
Alas, no: he only had something you might call a handsome stubble.
I posted in an earlier thread that I thought that it may be closer than people thought as far as Pog vs. Vin goes. After that week I just cannot see it being any closer than it is right now. I re-watched highlighted from Col de Granon in 2022, and realistically that is the only way I can see Pog being beaten. And even now, LAB have a weaker group than they did that day. Hard to see what stage that could happen.
In other observations – how sad for Remco when he attacked yesterday that Pog just watched him be reeled back, he did not feel that he needed to cover. Speaks volumes as to how highly (or not) he is rated.
How close it will be depends on whether Vingegaard can match Pogi in the mountains. Before the Dauphine, I thought it would be 50-50 who would win. The Dauphine performance by Pogi was remarkable and rather shocking. I am not sure I believe that Vingegaard has improved by enough to drop Pogi in the Tour. I guess the next week will show us.
That’s not really true though. Remco never got much of a gap so there was no real threat to Pog at any point in that brief foray.
Tomorrow should be fun, and a good way to get some kms back into the legs after the rest day. Imagine the carnage if they went straight into the Hautacam stage! I fully expect carnage anyway, as it appears that things are playing out as expected: Pogi is a step above JV, and JV is step above everyone else. Who will even be in the podium picture Friday morning? This definitely feels like one of those Tours where the top 10 will change dramatically in the third week as riders pick up (and drop) minutes at a time in bunches spread all over the mountains.
Given what most agree to be the lay of the land – one question: If you’re Visma with a stronger team and potential to isolate Pog, what do you do once you’ve isolated him?
The reason I ask is – if hypothetically Pog goes into Hautacam with no team mates (I assume Yates will be there but just for the sake of this example) would you ride hard as Visma and risk giving Pog a lead out to attack solo, or actually ride slow and constantly fire riders up the road which would again risk Pog just riding away solo but might also have the longterm benefit of tiring him later in the race for another Visma attack?
Or do you go back to 2022 an attack on the penultimate mountain of a stage and see where that leaves you for the finale?
It’s quite an unusual scenario having a stronger team but still facing the (likely) stronger rider. I do not know what I would do as Visma, their ‘go hard at all times’ tactic does make sense even if there’s a chance it ends up looking like a lot of effort for little reward.
I think they will hope to repeat 2022, with Jorgenson in place of Roglic. The problem is, unless he’s on a bad day, Pog can just ride away from both.
Yes, this is what I keep thinking: is UAE/Pogacar really concerned about any Visma rider other than Vingegaard? Why would he follow Jorgenson (or Yates)? I haven’t looked through Jorgenson’s records,but can he really excel in the big mountains for days?
At this point I’d like to see if Pogacar can break Cavendish’s record in the next 3 years… rolly-eye emoji.
Getting rid of all the UAE riders means that there is no one left to “launch” Tadej Pogacar, which I think that happened on both of the climbs in the Dauphine. Not having Joao Almeida makes this more difficult too. It does give him a small advantage as he does not have to make the first acceleration and helps get a few metres of distance. I suspect that is part of his “irritation” that he cant quite ride the way he wants to. I suspect we will see a few more days of Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss, & Simon Yates doing rolling attacks and WvA and Victor Campenaerts getting in the break Question is at what point does Jonas Vingegaard join in or Tadej Pogacar gets so fed up that he tries to put an end to it (Visma’s hope is if he does he will over commit and burn out like on Le Lioran last year, no sign of that so far though)
I don’t think the Hautacam stage is quite hard enough for Pogi’s domestics to be dropped before the bottom of the last climb. I expect they will be able to launch him at the bottom, if this is where he wants to attack.
I think there is a much better chance Visma can drop Pogi’s domestiques early on stage 14, 18 and 19 since these are genuuinely multi-mountain days. Stages 18 and 19 also look ideal for the satellite rider strategy. Visma, in my opinion, are playing a long game and stage 18/19 is where they will go all-in to win the Tour.
There is a legitimate question of whether there will still be a race for yellow after the TT. If the Hautacam and TT stages go the way the recent Pog-JV battles have gone, Pog’s lead will be so big that Visma won’t be able to throw anything at Pog that he has to worry about. If, on the other hand, JV is able to claw back a couple of seconds (or only lose a few), it could get really interesting. But I can’t help remembering last year, when all the talk of tactics and team strength were essentially moot points.
They’ve got to play the long game and hope to tire Pog enough for Vinny to drop him and find a big enough lead somehow to take yellow – Vinny may only get one shot at that, This is of course assuming that Pog doesn’t get ill, crash or have a mechanical at a bad time.
Lenny Martinez dad raced also and rode the Tour. He was Miguel Martinez,
Le Petit Mig in the days after Big Mig.
He switched to MTB later.
Excellent Tour so far. W the big days still to come.
His grandfather gave a great interview the other day, talking freely about contracts, his pay at the time – less than half the minimum wage, he saw the Tour as a holiday as he got pay and accommodation – and in-race deal talk that would make Dries De Bondt blush, as well as a version of events regarding Michel Pollentier’s doping control bust that I had not heard (Pollentier tried to pass the control by hiding a rubber balloon with clean urine under his armpit with a pipe taped on his arm).
https://rmc.bfmtv.com/podcasts/le-poids-du-maillot/episode-4-mariano-martinez-les-pois-en-heritage-d-un-atypique-besogneux_EN-202507030102.html (in French)
Thank you for that.
It’s a pity I don’t speak French.
I’ve heard of that balloon trick, though I heard it was a condom.
Not sure it was only Pollentier playing that game.
He was extremely successful on the MTB; Olympic champion, World champion & World Cup Overall winner all in 2000.
With 10 XCO World Cup wins, he’s still ahead of Tom Pidcock who is on 8…….(as is Cadel Evans).
It’s hard to see from where a French stage victory might come. Démare, Penhoët and Coquard are well short of the best in a sprint, Martinez can’t hope to match the top climbers, while, for the punchy stages, Grégoire and Vauquelin seem to be fading. Some magic from Alaphilippe is unlikely too. Breakaway good fortune is required.
I still think Vingegaard will unseat Pogacar on the long high climbs.
I have to say, the pink nose strips are some next level trolling on the part of Visma. I don’t know if these mind games have any effect, but they’re entertaining.