After an opening week where Tadej Pogačar took time gains here and there, the first summit finish settled things. Jhonatan Narvaez leads out Tadej Pogačar at the foot of the climb to Hautacam. Seconds later the rainbow jersey will attack and Jonas Vingegaard cannot follow. The Dane tries to pace himself, holding at 20 seconds for several kilometres but cracks, losing over two minutes and almost being caught by Florian Lipowitz.
The first week saw a series of stages described as an “optical illusion”, as to glance at the profile was to imagine a series of sprint stages. Only we saw Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar duelling for the stage wins in Boulogne and Vire with Jonas Vingegaard in third place. With hindsight this was the best of the GC battle, intense in the moment but promising too as they were inseparable and this suppressed memories of the Dauphiné.
The Dunkerque stage did look like a dull one bound to end in a sprint and the peloton knew it, nobody wanted to attack. But the day wasn’t incident-free as Jasper Philipsen crashed out after riders tangled in the intermediate sprint, he was wearing the green jersey at the time too.
The Stage 5 time trial went to plan with Remco Evenepoel winning ahead of Pogačar but the surprise was Vingegaard having an off-day, beaten by two of his team mates and losing over a minute to Pogačar. Still Visma-LAB tried to stay upbeat, talking of “the Plan” but presumably being this far down à la pédale wasn’t on the drawing board.
Stage 6 to Vire showed the “Tour effect” where riders raged to get in the breakaway with intensity and duration not seen at other races, wave after wave of many of the best riders in the world trying to crack each other. Ben Healy was able to make several attempts and got into the right move and won from there while Van der Poel took yellow by one second.
The stage to Mûr-de-Bretagne avoided a bunch sprint and saw Pogačar win the stage ahead of Vingegaard. Inseparable again but with hindsight Pogačar was always ahead and even on these relatively flat stages he was filling up his lead with time bonuses. That day also saw João Almeida crash out.
Stages 8 and 9 were for the sprinters. The first to Laval saw Jonathan Milan stampede to the line, his big upright style isn’t the most aero but this is less costly in an uphill sprint and he got his maiden win.
Tim Merlier replied the next day but the expected procession to Châteauroux was ruined by Mathieu van der Poel who went on the attack with his team mate Jonas Rickaert for the whole stage, a ruse to give Rickaert the combativity prize almost turned into a stage win and prompted insomnia for anyone hoping for a Sunday siesta.
Stage 10 saw Ben Healy in the breakaway again and this time he towed it to the line as he stood to gain the yellow jersey. This gave Simon Yates almost a free ride to the line and he took the stage. Once again Pogačar and Vingegaard duelled, once again Pogačar won, once again they distanced the rest.
Stage 11 was non-stop, the “Tour effect” again with more combat than a John Wick box set. Jonas Abrahamsen managed to win despite attacking from kilometre zero and having to ride at over 50km/h on the flat for the first hour or more. He held off a chase move from Mathieu van der Poel with the Dutchman launching on the festive cauldron of Pech David.
All changed at Hautacam on Stage 12. It was this halfway point in the race and still the race for the yellow jersey hadn’t started. A 50 rider breakaway got away on the plains, then on the Col du Soulor Visma-LAB got to work but unfortunately for them the pace dropped more of their team mates than rivals. Onto the climb to Hautacam and Pogačar got a lead-out from Jhonatan Narvaez and, without getting out of the saddle, rode away. Jonas Vingegaard could only partially match the acceleration in part, picking up speed in response but not enough to stay with his rival. It was so early on the climb that for a few minutes it looked wise to hold back but soon the Dane’s body language was telling, his head dipping, the pedal stroke slowing. He’d lose two minutes, with Florian Lipowitz closing in at the finish.
This deflated the suspense and rather than the nagging doubt of a slow puncture it was as sudden as tire blowing off a hookless rim. All the skirmishes of the first half of the Tour were rendered irrelevant, the inseparable duo now over three and a half minutes apart.
The chart above shows the GC standings of the top eight riders overall relative to Pogačar across the 21 stages. All riders fall away, even on the opening stage in Lille Pogačar is on the right side of the split in the crosswinds while others miss.
The gaps widen amid the hilly finishes in the opening week, Pogačar taking time bonuses while others lose out in splits. Stage 5’s time trial is crucial because Vingegaard has an off-day, losing over a minute and by now he’s the only GC contender on the chart within two minutes. More of the same on the hilly days to Vire and Mûr-de-Bretagne. The gaps look small compared to what is to come but it’s always in one direction, everyone is falling away: nobody takes a second on Pogačar.
Hautacam is the first summit finish and Vingegaard loses over two minutes here so he’s now three and a half minutes down. For the rest of the race his line is steady, no dramatic losses but only one gain, imperceptible on the chart but on Stage 18 he gets a six second time bonus while Pogačar gets four. Anecdotal but this is the only moment Vingegaard would take time on his rival, it was that one way. Beyond this another anecdote where Vingegaard finished behind Pogačar on every stage except for this and two sprint stages where the pair were in the bunch.
The other riders are included on the chart. Showing these riders serves two purposes, first to illustrate how everyone fell away and kept going, the y-axis had to be extended like never before. It’s similar to 1997 or 1984 to see less than 10 riders within half an hour; 1979 had only four. Second because the lines don’t cross very often. If riders were soaring one day and falling the next and the chart looked like a spaghetti bowl the GC would be more entertaining. Only here things were stable, the only sharp move is Primož Roglič after his all-nothing-move on Stage 19 costs him.
The hope was Vingegaard would have a clear run at the race but his condition seemed worse than 2024. We saw this in the Dauphiné and then at the Tour and that’s the conclusion UAE’s staff took too.
Did Visma settle for second place? The constant talk of “the plan” proved a Micawber-like hope for something to turn up rather than path to victory, the hope that Pogačar would fade in the third week rather than a moment to seize the race. Visma-LAB rode hard to put Pogačar in yellow on Stage 6 and yes there’s the fatigue of the daily media round but this was hardly the way to overturn a race. This turned into small a public relations issue, raising expectations among fans rather than moderating them. They gave it one last try on the Col de la Madeleine during Stage 18 but could not overturn the race. Rather than attack until he could no more in the reckless hope of cracking his rival Vingegaard played it more rationally.
Vingegaard also had two off days. If he had performed on par in Caen and at Hautacam then the gap at the top would have been closer. It never seemed reversible but if things had been closer what would their relative state of minds have been? It could equally be that Pogačar would relish the duel and win more.
No grand tour seems complete without riders complaining about how the latest one is the most tiring edition ever. But absent enough TSS scores for now (a measure of fatigue based on power data) 2025 was hard, the speed was high on many days – the 2025 Tour de France was the fastest with an average speed of 42.84km/h – as even some sprint stages took on the air of a one day classic. There were long transfers this year too which made it harder.
It seemed especially tiring for for the GC contenders. Kévin Vauquelin spoke to various riders and relayed a consensus was that those going for GC were fried by the opening long week, the physical effort of having to compete day after day and the mental stress on the windy days too when normally they’d have stayed quiet in the peloton. This can explain some of the big gaps in the top-10, but so does the top-10 itself, the final ten to reach Paris are not the world’s ten best stage racers either.
The points competition saw Jonathan Milan’s challenge come from Tadej Pogačar. Tim Merlier beat Milan in every sprint they contested, the Belgian thwarted by splits and crashes. Jasper Philipsen crash in the intermediate sprint on the third day denied a closer contest. The sprints were good, but if nobody attacks before then the organisers will try to avoid them.
The mountains competition didn’t catch fire, arguably one high point was the opening stage when Benjamin Thomas et Mattéo Vercher sprinted for one point on Mont Cassel. Lenny Martinez tried to go for it but spent more days in the jersey as a clothes horse for the competition leader Pogačar. He’ll be remembered for multiple sticky bottles on the Glandon but his bid also came undone because of erratic riding and the suggestion he needs to descend as fast as he can climb.
The white jersey proved to the the most keenly contested. Florian Lipowitz is the first German on the podium since Klöden in 2006 and continues his Wundersaison after white jerseys in Paris-Nice and the Dauphiné and can clearly improve, including easing back on the kamikaze moves. By contrast did Oscar Onley ever attack? He exceeded expectations and rode steadily throughout to fourth place which is just what his team wanted, he’s collected well over 1,000 UCI points this month when his team had scored under 5,000 this season as they try to stave off relegation. Kévin Vauquelin was a revelation too, if not for the performances which many knew he could deliver but the way he took on leadership and seemed to revel in the media when he’s lacked confidence in himself before too.
Final notes for Thymen Arensman grinding uphill to two stage wins, getting ahead of events, unlike Ineos management with the doping/trust story that we should return too now the pile of maps and route notes is tidied up. Alpecin-Deceuninck are still searching for a co-sponsor which is astonishing given their success and having the one rider who can topple Pogačar, if only away from the mountains.
The flipside of the “Tour effect” mentioned above is wilting romance, no local rider on a raid, no wildcard team to upset the odds. Among the weakest stage winners were Arensman who’s been top-10 in the Giro and Valentin Paret-Peintre who’s won a Giro stage and beat Adam Yates in a straight uphill finish in Oman. Yes Uno-X won but they’re a team with plan and a pathway and could be in the World Tour soon too. Teams struggling to get noticed really need to find a niche to occupy to stand out.
The Verdict
Tadej Pogačar took time everywhere he could and the more opportunities he was given, the more he grabbed them. This was fun in the first week and the opening 11 stages made for one of the liveliest starts ever to the Tour. But Hautacam saw Tadej Pogačar land the knock-out blow on Jonas Vingegaard’s ambitions.
Vingegaard then matched Pogačar to create the impression of a duel but it was one-sided, he was able to follow Pogačar but could not get back time, while all the other GC contenders fell further and further away. His Visma were strong at times but never able to bend the race to their will as they could before, illness at times hampered them and UAE shared this problem at times too even if both squads enjoyed multiple stage wins. He’s due to race the Vuelta but we’ll see if the winter brings a reset and different objectives, perhaps the Giro next year instead?
It made for a topsy-turvy race where the best days were not the hotly-anticipated summit finishes – Mont Ventoux excepted – but most of the other days in between. The first long week was a thrill, the skirmishes were enjoyable in the moment.
The “Tour effect” meant Boulogne, Rouen, Vire, Toulouse, Carcassonne, Pontarlier and Paris hosted superb stages, if this blog picks five highlights of the season that’s seven contenders already. But they were lively because UAE and Visma-LAB didn’t or couldn’t control them. What would have raised them to a supreme level would be to see the GC contenders at work too, so Ben Healy, Jonas Abrahamsen and others up the road going for the stage while a second contest behind saw the GC contenders making moves on the road to Toulouse or Pontarlier.
Newspapers have published siesta guides for Tour viewers but this looks redundant. Only Dunkerque and Laval were soporific. This is almost a problem as a quiet day’s viewing allows riders to recover. Transition stages ridden at 50km/h sap everyone forced to keep up; while the baroudeurs can go in the gruppetto in the mountains and this year benefitted from extended time cuts.
Pogačar has exhausted the superlatives. He is now at the risk of exhausting some fans because of the lack of a contest although it’s notable how many children lined the route with Pogi signs and UAE jerseys and TV audiences in France have surged. He says he should be back at the Tour again next year but note the conditional tense, this uncertainty. Because if he does start in Barcelona next July things will look rather certain again.
Spot on and lovely commentary, as usual. Thank you! Thoughts on the new format for the final stage now that it’s done and dusted? I found it to be one of the most exciting bike races of the year so far. The rain was an added bonus, giving it the distinct feel of an early spring classic. I will admit to also having a soft spot for the traditional procession on the Champs so I could go for a schedule where we alternate years perhaps? One year on Monmarte the next on the Champs?
It looks like Montmartre could be back and for several years too but it’s a lot to ask to close parts of Paris for a Sunday, it might look like a tourist village but means closing roads, blocking access, even public transport etc… but apparently it required the intervention of the French President to help make it happen and he was “enchanted” (delighted) by what he saw on TV like the rest of us so there’s support to make it happen again. Le Parisien newspaper reports ASO will try and get a multi-year permit for this to happen.
Like many the idea of alternating isn’t bad, it gives the sprinters something to aim for and is still a thrill but an abbreviated one.
As the Strade Bianche became an instant classic, so too has the climb to Montmartre.
The GC was neutralized for the stage. And given how narrow the roads are, I think if GC is not neutralized there could be chaos on the stage. There will be splits in the peloton with GC riders losing minutes. Will we be fine with changes in the podium on the final stage due to crashes and splits in the peloton? If not, will they need to neutralize the GC every year? If they do that then is it really a stage race (why not neutralize other stages where there are splits in the peloton, such as the stage to Boulogne)?
If the stage has to be cancelled if it’s wet, it is not safe. The Montmartre climb is not suitable for the tdf and should not be included.
Remember it’s the same for the Champs-Elysées, when it has rained before times have been taken on the entrance.
Pogi is not the only person who has exhausted the superlatives, M.Inrng has too. This is simply the best place in the cycling media, I am always very grateful for the huge effort it must take to write with such style and knowledge both of the teams & riders and of the geography & culture of the places the races pass through.
I know that one is supposed to be in awe of the riding we are seeing but I feel something is missing. The TV audiences might be up but the racing is not supplying a great narrative. Longer sports need that narrative (Test Match cricket is another) and tension needs to build over the three weeks to a grand climax. Here it was all over by the halfway point. No amount of breakneck chases through villages and twisty lanes can replace the tension of a grand finale, the Giro provided exactly this just over a month ago. Perhaps the Tour has had less of these as the stakes are higher and once one rider gets into the lead they tend to defend and it is often the strongest team who then smoother the race. Endings like Andy Schleck’s astonishing win on the Galibier, followed by Cadel Evens’ grim determination or Tadej Pogacar’s TT up Belles Filles are sadly not common enough.
Not sure it helps the riders either, the effort that was put in in the first week must be to the detriment of the performance levels in the third week. Not a lot of point in watching processions slowly climbing up to ski stations.
Where was WvA hiding all race? There was no sign of the rider seen in the past and in fact a few weeks before at the Giro. He was the only rider to have ridden (a fatigued) Tadej Pogacar off his wheel but saved for the last day. Maybe all is not as it seems in the Visma camp?
I must say I ended up feeling that the race was (to use a phrase popular here a couple of days ago) rather a damp squib. The over enthusiasm of the commentators masking a certain hollowness of a French institution loosing some of its identity in the pursuit of ratings and money.
As it says in the blog, at least 7 candidates for a 5-strong, end-of-season Raceday of the Year post. Sometimes it can pay to turn the kaleidoscope round and see those over-rated 😜 jerseys as a backdrop to the daily drama, renewed afresh at every stage. I thought there were nearly 21 full days of excellent bike racing.
Re: Giro. Stick Pog in there and it would have been over before they left Albania. Take Pog and JV (who put 6.36 on the next guy) out of the Tour and it might have been a nailbiter, young guns Lipowitz and Onley against old hands like the Yates bros, Remco and Almeida if they’d stayed healthy. A nailbiter with the nagging sense of “but these weren’t the best in the sport.”
While I agree Schleck’s Galibier and Pog’s Belles Filles TT’s are too rare and the sport overall should force occurrences like this less infrequent by modernising across the calendar/overall structure – you all have to also remember that both those ending are all time greats and in a sense they are rare for a reason? Asking for that every year is also probs a bit greedy and not how sport works?
If you look at many races before an after those (having watched them!) they were equally dull in some ways to this year – which I actually don’t think was too bad.
In terms of grand narratives, I feel like this is a different question in the one thing we *do* have right now is a grand narrative – no two riders have ever finished 1st-2nd for five tours in a row, so this is possibly the greatest rivalry in the history of the Tour. The narrative is there even if the competition fell flat this year after the TT but if Vingegaard can beat or run Pog close next year or the year after this era will soon become the one people talk about ad infinitum.
How do you make showdowns like those two you mention more common? Someone in here made the comparison with test cricket the other day, and it is quite a good one. A lot of test matches are fairly humdrum, and an entire series of them can be fairly humdrum before building up to one big moment. A narrative and tension are built over time and can’t be forced. A close fought test match coming down to the last run or wicket is a great thing and remembered for a long time. The same thing in T20 (a much abbreviated ’fast food’ form of cricket) happens much more often and is forgotten the next day. When something is contrived it is never as satisfying as the real thing.
Pogacar is just better than everyone else, and I don’t see how making him race Vingegaard more often or in different places at a different time of year will help that. He has a great rivalry with Van der Poel in races where the hills are just the right length for Van der Poel to not get dropped. You could make a whole year long series based on races on short climbs spread across the whole year but as soon as those two were retired and replaced by two great sprinters or two great climbers the whole concept would be obsolete. Plus, the idea of racing ’more often’ has probably been exploded by the fact that none of Pogacar, Van der Poel or Evenepoel raced the Giro, yet only one of the 3 barely made it to the finish here through a mixture of illness, exhaustion and mental fatigue. If you want the full on racing you’ve got to let people rest.
I just don’t want to bore everyone here a wholesale redo of the sport and an exhaustive post! Because I’m talking about something from the ground up to change sponsorship, calendar, teams, everything, which is completely impossible as it stands – so your argument will absolutely be correct – small tweaks, incremental change will do nothing – but as it stands we’re watching a sport fishing in a very small pool of (mainly European) talent for a disorganised and random calendar where opportunities, injuries and even team survival inhibit so much development, on the micro scale of individual riders and the macro scale of moving the sport forward as a whole.
If you approach what we know currently as pro-road racing it’s true there’s very little space for change or improvement, but if you think bigger with a complete change across the board that retains the link to cycling heartlands/grass roots there is a far better version of the sport out there where we’re not sitting around half the sports active-calendar year knowing our heroes are off camera at training camps or peddling half gas at warm up events while we make do waiting for a few monuments or the TDF (even though I watch all races, even the smallest) only to moan after that the Giro was ‘not the top riders’ or the Tour was ‘a washout’ etc etc.
Nothing will ever be perfect as that’s sport – and cycling is better for periods of slow burn boredom but it could be dramatically better than it currently is and if those improvements were part of a structured proposal so that the same structure could go to supporting suffering organisers, teams struggling to stay afloat, rider safety, womens racing etc etc – the entire sport could grow as one rather than each element limping on in constant states of upheaval/distress outside of those events owned by ASO.
The big issue is that all elements would need to be tackled as one at once with investment which will only likely happen with Saudi money following a protracted Golf-like civil war which is the last thing I want to see.
But change always comes whether people like it or not – my fear is that change will be forced rather than guided by people with the sports best interests at heart.
ps I noticed recently on strava many of the top times being taken by Chinese riders, so I assume at some point we’re going to see a Chinese rider/team (maybe even this version of Astana) come and dominate the Tour, will be interesting to see where that takes us!
You talk about race organisers, riders and teams.
But the key people are the people who own the roads on which the riders race. Without them, nothing happens. But you keep not understanding this key group and what they want from allowing the races to run on their roads.
I can remember when many of the top times in swimming were being taken by Chinese athletes… it didn’t work out that well..!
“I just don’t want to bore everyone here a wholesale redo of the sport and an exhaustive post!”
and then proceeds to do so!
And I enjoyed every second!
I agree with most of this. It seems to me that the ASO folk are trying a bit too hard, lots of almost Hollywood style hype, “fastest ever”, “best ever”, “most amount of climbing” etc. The media is part of this too with often over excited commentary (Rob Hatch is particularly prone to this, though he is only doing his job). But in the end something deeper is lost, much like T20 cricket (which I never watch) v Test Match cricket (or perhaps MacDonalds v traditional French cuisine).
I am not against change, I understand that “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change” but the process needs to be mindful of the history and culture. The Tour is more than a bike race it is part of modern France, the long slow “boring” transition sprint stages allow for the race to pass through more villages and small towns. The Tour doesnt have a stadium but the largest sport event in the world has the entirety of France (and a bit beyond). I am sure some management consultant somewhere has thoughts that the sort of crowds seen around Montmartre could be a source of income, if so the start of a very slippery slope.
Making Pogacar race Vingegaard more often…
I don’t think this would make cycling more interesting. What is interesting is the rarity if the event (leading to anticipation), and the fact we don’t know who will win. But after the Dauphine we were certain that Pogacar would win in the mountains. I am not much interested in seeing it again at the Vuelta, where only exhaustion will lead to another outcome.
To be honest – I will watch the Vuelta if it’s a Pog or Jonas walkover or if it’s something completely different with next gen or second tier (but still excellent) riders, I’ll also watch every other race I can get my hands on – my love for cycling is insatiable, ill watch at its most boring or at its most interesting so I’m a ride or die in the truest sense! Being able to waffle here with fellow fans makes the experience so much more enjoyable that its wasting away on a sofa/indoor trainer.
Small correction: “Seconds later the yellow jersey will attack and Jonas Vingegaard cannot follow” <- but Pogacar wasn't in yellow on that day (as can be seen in the photo)
Rainbow jersey of course. This message will self-destruct later to tidy up comments for the rest.
“…stage of mind…” should be “…state of mind…”?
And a happy thank you for the insights, as always highly appreciated!
Fixed, thanks. This message will self-destruct later to tidy up comments for the rest.
The moment the tour was won was probably the first day a young Tadej Pogacar picked up a bike.
He’s obviously good but the 2024 Vingegaard could have run him closer and that Vingegaard was still the one who recovered from big injuries and so perhaps not. In a way this still holds out the prospect of a duel… but rendez-vous in the 2026 Dauphiné, but not sure they dare clash then.
The news of Vingegaard being not at his 24-level has eluded me (and I cannot open the link in the text). What is that all about? I think Vingegaard himself has reported of “best ever numbers” this TdF, however that might not necessarily be true off course.
I’ve noticed Vingegaard is quick to finish a race and report his numbers to the waiting media but it’s not obvious in the moment, you often need to download the data and double-check, see what the numbers are for a particular duration, check the calibration etc. UAE will have done more numbers based off their data for Pogačar…
…but maybe we don’t need a sports science doctorate here, Vingegaard was slower than two team mates in the time trial, he blew up on Hautacam for trying to follow Pogačar and was almost caught by Lipowitz. While in 2024 he was among the best in the Gevrey-Chambertin TT, and if the story was of him taking a pasting at the Pla d’Adet and Plateau de Beille he only lost about a minute and was well clear of the rest.
@Inrng Boths seems to be true. Vingegaard reported that he was perplexed. He is seeing his best ever numbers, but also having those offdays witch he never had before.
Was last year’s Vingegaard better or this year’s Pogacar a step above? Hard to tell, and JV said he was on his best form ever. In any case, it probably doesn’t make that much of a difference. Seems like only another Pogacar could put up a challenge.
My second favourite stat of the race was that Vingegaard hasn’t actually gained time on Pogacar on the road (ie not time bonuses) on a Tour stage since the Col de Loze in 2023.
My favourite stat was Movistar managing to get all their riders to finish in the top 15 on a stage, and none of them managing better than a fifth (Rubio at Courchevel)
Enjoyed both of these.
Movistar are confusing me currently, both they and Ineos did not have a rider in the Top10 which seemed unthinkable until recently.
Pablo Castrillo their major signing finished 110 and was a complete non event surprisingly. It’s also strange that he was an Ineos target and it’s hard to see which could’ve been a worse team for him between the two who rarely seem to be able to develop a rider in the recent past.
I heard about Movistar’s incoming investment and obviously Ineos now have Total Energie but what I keep wondering is if Visma/UAE and now Red Bull then soon to be Decathlon are the best funded teams, what is the money being spent on to make them so much better?
In years gone by Sky and others seemed to simply buy huge talents and helped them train better to ascend to their peak (Porte, Kwiato, Poels – all high GC finishers previously). In a sense UAE and Visma are doing very similar but with both Movistar and Ineos we are now seeing the inverse, where strong prospects seemingly get worse? A Yates is a good example looking at his jump to UAE, and many young talents seem to be stagnating are both Ineos and Movistar: Sheffield, Rodriguez, Castrillo etc etc.
I want to emphasise I’m not talking for a second about drugs or cheating as I don’t believe that’s the difference maker. Also some of this may be just luck, Castrillo or Rodriguez being ill or similar etc – but it does seem overall that both UAE/Visma are doing something that Ineos/Movistar aren’t beyond simply money? Or is it just that they are buying better riders and Castrillo was not the talent I thought he seemed last year? Even if the A Yates conundrum still confuses along with some others dramatic improvements.
Still maybe Visma and UAE have as many drop offs as they do wins (Ayuso, even Jorgenson this Tour) so it’s simply a numbers game? And the single big difference is the earlier acquisition of riders before their mid20s where both Visma/UAE have better modelling for riders who might turn into world beaters?
Anyway it’s just a bit of a confusion for me currently!
I wouldn’t write off Castrillo yet, he had a special Vuelta but looked strong at times in the Tour, the level of competition is just much higher.
Movistar have new owners and will be spending more on performance, they’ve struggled to have all the support staff and resources for training camps etc. And Juan Ayuso is a likely arrival at some point and he’ll force them to up their game.
Ineos by contrast spend a lot on performance but seem to have huge churn in this, people come and go and anecdotally this is hard for the riders who stay because it’s harder to build up relationships with a coach who has arrived but then has their eye on moving elsewhere halfway into the season.
Oh I hadn’t written him off, just surprised we saw nothing of him!
It just feels weird recently when you get excited about certain riders who seem to have the capabilities to go far and they’re just eaten alive by the current generation or seemingly go backwards after bad transfers…
The difference between the level of the tour and other races is actually quite a good issue to highlight, as we see the same riders winning both the Tour and Vuelta (or at least prominent riders in both) but the breaks now seem totally different and sneaking away for a breakaway win in the Vuelta is far easier than the Tour so no barometer on whether someone will rise up the ranks.
I don’t think this is a new phenomenon – regression to the mean has always existed…Riders obviously get noticed when they have standout performances, and that often leads to a transfer (and often a nice, chunky salary). But it’s very hard to predict their ability to repeat those standout performances – did they perform that way because they have a high base level and so will repeat it time and time again, or was it a once-in-a-lifetime event and they’ll never get there again.
It’s hard to know currently which camp Castrillo falls into, but there are plenty of examples of riders over the years having a magical day, or three weeks, and never managing to repeat.
One of the many problems for both those teams is that they have been or have allowed themselves to be worked over and played off each other by Acquadro for years, competing for hyped hispanophones like Castrillo. The Carlos Rodriguez saga last year was arch-Acquadro. Meanwhile, UAE get Ayuso, Torres and Del Toro.
He’s almost the Human Resources manager for several teams, with roles at Ineos, UAE, Arkea etc. I’m always surprised this exists, that if you’re rider you chose an agent who also represents your rivals but can appreciate running a “stable” works and so here he can exercise influence as well.
@oldDAVE. Not sure why you’re surprised by Movistar – they’ve been the comedy act of the peloton in recent years while Ineos lack direction.
As for progress, it’s not an inevitable linear line from point A (rookie) to point B (GT winner), as in any sport. So much can happen to end at point C (average GC performer), point D (becomes a domestique) or point D (disappears almost without trace).
So yes, it is partly a numbers game and partly a fingers crossed situation.
Yeah, I know Movistar havent always been the best run or most efficient (even if I hate writing that as I’m no insider and solely going off of media reports!) it’s just where they are now is still a long way behind and is very surprising. I think Anoymous has a slight point re Acquadro but even then I feel like money+shift to youth are the bigger factors and I’m just a little surprised to see so many riders go backwards at both when training methods now seem far more open source than they once were, and Ineos in particular were once at the head of the marginal gains movement. Yes riders have good and bad years, contract bumps, illness and all these things have always happened – I guess I’m just a touch surprised in this particular era how things are playing out exactly as always despite so many things changing.
It was revealing to hear Matteo Jorgenson talk before and after his move from Movistar to Visma. In his last year at Movistar he was paying for training expertise and altitude training camps out-of-pocket and felt that that gave him big improvements in performance. All of this came from the team at Visma and he continued to improve.
Thanks so much for all the coverage, your coverage is as peerless as Pog himself.
I do think WVA’s final stage victory merits a mention even if the official times had been frozen at that point. A win of both force and skill given the conditions.
@Greasy Wheel can only echo your sentiment regarding WVA.
I think with the Tour at the moment there is a distinction to be made between great racing and a great race. The racing on a day to day basis is excellent. There were one or two stages that weren’t up to much but the majority were full gas and action packed. The race though, in terms of suspense, when it really gets down to it for the GC, isn’t up to that much. Pogacar is too good tor that. In the end he won easily with his hands in his pockets whilst not feeling that great. He seemed a bit bored to be going through the motions in the mountains rather than duelling with Van der Poel on bergs. As superior as Pogacar is, Vingegaard is as superior again over everyone else. And Evenepoel doesn’t seem quite able to hack the intensity of it all for 3 weeks, on top of the training required and the need to stay upright. Overall though I enjoyed it, if mainly for the spectacle and the theatre of it all. The final stage was an excellent addition/modification in that regard.
For me there were two issues.
(a) Full gas racing every day meant the GC riders and their teams were totally cooked for the big mountain days. They need a rest on quieter days to be able to race full-out on the GC days. Normally the quiet sprint days, in particular, allow riders to recover.
(b) There seemed to be a bit of illness which affected the GC-teams. For UAE, Almeida crashed and Sivakov was sick. Yates and Soler underperformed (were they sick too?) Similar for Visma (Jorgenson and Van Aert both said they were ill, for instance). The consequence was they could not pace on the mountain days to set up the principals for their attacks.
Yep, agree. It was a Tour for the purest, lots to talk about but all bubbling under the surface aside from a few stages. I can imagine the data nerds really going wild for it – working out what speeds and repeats now crack the best and brightest over a three week period.
total aside:
I wonder whether the TDF/ASO have a data dept? As in when they’re creating a route whether they factor in possible average speeds and w/kg outputs in an effort to create a Tour that’s either extremely hard or mildly hard to create more competitive racing? It feels like it would be way too hard to predict and overly complicated but I wonder how much new tech has seeped into route planning or whether it’s still purely traditional ‘few hills here, few sprints here’ etc.
in fact I’d kinda love to see a big data model of a TDF route – just for fun someone whips up an algorithm using top riders of different types data and all recent routes and starts to model possible outcomes with different prompts for various routes.
You’ve hit the nail on the head for me there Richard S – the Tour had great racing, but wasn’t a great (GC) race.
There were a lot of stages worth watching, with fierce battles and intrigue. But the GC race took a while to begin, and then was over in a flash.
Our host has talked about ‘tapas cycling’ in the Vuelta. This TdF was perhaps like an all-inclusive buffet – lots of tasty dishes, but none of them really go well together to make a well-balanced meal!
Looking back, it was only a year and a half ago when we were wondering if Pogacar would win another Tour, having lost twice in a row to Jonas. And speculating that he was doing the Giro knowing Jonas had the beating of him in the Tour. Seems a long time ago now!
Hautacam was clearly when the race was won, but I would argue that the stage to La Loze was emblematic of the entire GC contest. Visma absolutely blew themselves up to try to get the advantage over Pog, but he just waited it out and Vingegaard was too tired to actually attack on the final climb. It’s important to note the massive gaps in the top ten in this race. Vingo has been criticized for not being aggressive enough, but he and his team absolutely walloped the rest of the competition. Pog was just such a huge step above the rest that nothing touched him until the finale of Stage 21 when it was just for fun (for Pog).
Actually, I’m thinking that it may have been won on the early stage (can’t remember which one) where Pog attacked on a steep climb, Vinny went with him before sitting up because he was getting cooked, only to realise the top of the hill was really close and he could make it without totally blowing up. On the Hautacam, he knew he would blow big time if he tried to follow more than momentarily.
Good point. Hautacam essentially put the exclamation point on what we were already seeing. It never looked in doubt after that.
Huge credit to Pogacar for making a race of it in Paris and showing off the yellow jersey at the front. He didn’t need to do that, no-one would have criticised him for sitting back in the Geraint Thomas group. He validated and enhanced van Aert’s win by his actions which did carry a not insignificant risk.
That depends on whether at the point the race was neutralised he was declared the winner and didn’t need to cross the finishing line to collect the final yellow jersey. I don’t know what the rules in place were.
I suppose not even ASO can proclaim a winner WHO didn’t cross the finish line.
Just a huge thanks to Mr. Inrng – every morning the previews set the day up. I’d got into cycling through the Channel 4 (UK) highlights in the early 90s – so sad to see such brilliant professionals, via ITV4, finish – but being signposted to this blog in about 2010 made it my first sporting love. (Hat tip to the ProCycling Manager game and Podium Cafe VDS game for making me aware of all the smaller races.)
During lockdown, and in various quiet personal periods, I’ve gone back and re-read this site from the start. It’s an amazing on-the-scene record of cycling as it evolved. All I can say is thank you.
Slick Slovenian Scores
Dogged Dane looks to Spain
Game German Grows
The course itself was probably adversely affected by the queen stage being slotted into the third week beside two other tough stages.
this didn’t get the love it deserved, was my fave comment here
Cadence 66 – the Clown Prince of inrng
I loved it too!
As ever, thanks for the excellent commentary, and those wonderful postcards!
I do not mind a race where someone stakes a marker early and challenges others to go get it. It can make for a tactically interesting chase, playbooks torn up and rewritten when something doesn’t work, flailing around if nothing works. If something works, great, it forces the quondam leader to adapt; if not, it can still make for compelling racing.
Quondam, thank you. Word new to me. Expanding my vocabulary is a side benefit to the best men’s pro cycling site!
Hey, Mr Rng set the bar high around here — gotta keep up!
About spot on review of the Tour.
The crazy speed from day 1 meant by the first delayed rest day, most guys seemed drained. Even van der Poel wondered how guys recovered after one after one “classic style” days. Maybe the parcours lead to this as hills and climbs always in the last 50 km or so (and the threat of crosswinds), meant GC guys and sprint teams clambered to be in the front, scared of losing time or position in the peloton. As the hope was to make the race as interesting as possible in the first week (in the dreaded flat lands of western France), it backfired as there was too much and fatigue set in early. Also Pogacar’s unusual ability for classics style and GT racing meant his dominance was present from day 1. (the only parcours I can think of that would neutralize Pogacar’s first week rampages, would be an old fashioned first week of sprint stages.)
Breakaways were either 30, 40 guys or nobody. A chance of a stage win and everyone goes, a sprint finish certainty ,a rest day (apart from van der Poel’s and teammate’s day off the front). The days of a couple of minor teams sending a couple of guys up the road for TV exposure are well and truely over. I suppose we can put it down to invitees who are just as good as some WT teams.
It has been mentioned that the Tour might not finish in Paris every year. Not a bad idea as it could be a Grand Depart instead and finish up on the Tourmalet or some other mountain. Would seem fitting for a Tour winner to be crowned on a peak’s top.(not that the VIP’s, I imagine would care for it!)
Maybe it’s time to scrap the bonus seconds at the finish, so GC guys are not so interested.
52 seconds in total for Pogačar, 34 for Vingegaard and 4 for Lipowitz for what it’s worth.
Yeah, when did this become a thing? It wasn’t that long ago that only the Vuelta did it. I’m not sure its necessary. Maybe if your first stage is a bunch sprint so you can have some sort of GC, but thats all.
They started in 1932 when the first three got 4-2-1 minutes and if the stage winner was solo and clear by three minutes they got an extra three minutes.
Reading about the 1964 Tour de France the stage winner got one minute and this had a big impact on results. It was at the end of the 1960s that the bonuses were shrunk to seconds instead of minutes.
But they must have dropped it for a while. It wasn’t a thing say 10-15-20 years ago, or was it?!
From 2008 or 2009 to 2014.
They also used to give time bonuses mid-stage on mountain summits. Heads would explode among the KOM-should-be-a-breakaway-consolation-prize lobby if that was reintroduced 🤣 Or could it be a route for Lenny Martinez to win the whole thing? 🤔
Vingegaard seemed to be making a point of getting involved in sprints this year, as though his team had decided every second would be critical, but it’s not often that bonuses end up being decisive. In hindsight, if Vingegaard had avoided getting involved and stayed fresher for the final week he might at least have dropped Pog a few times and had stage wins, if not exactly done a Yates in the Giro.
Wasn’t it cunego who won the white jersey in 2006 I didn’t think anyone from Germany had won since ulrich in 1998
Yes, but the podium for Lipowitz as in third overall. I dipped in and out of the German media and you could see/read the enthusiasm.
The media coverage on Lipowitz in Germany is remarkable. It looks as if Lipowitz is helping the german public to overcome Team Telekom’s ignominious past. Even Jan Ulrich is now a welcome guest in television studios again (after apparently getting some personal issues under control).
The big question for me coming out of this Tour as an Irish/Brit is Oscar Onley…
There are many riders around 23-25 who seem to be rising the GC game but aside from Del Toro none as young as Onley, and those who are seem to have gone backwards (Cian Uijtdebroeks etc) – which leads to the big question: can he keep improving to rise to the P/V level??
It feels so hard to guess now – previously you’d say 4th at 22 would make him a title contender in the coming years but things have changed so much is that true anymore?
The level of P/V is so high that you wonder even at 22 whether making that kind of leap by 25 is possible? Would we already know if he had that capability in him by now or should we hope/believe large improvements are still possible as reach mid20s? He’s improved dramatically since 2024 so hopefully such a leap will come into 2026 maybe with a new team.
I’m chuffed having gone deep on predicting he’d finish high (one of very few predictions I make to ever come to fruition so will be dining out on it for a while…) and 4th exceeded my wildest expectation, despite Roglic, Jorgenson, Almeida, Remco, Rodriguez all likely underperforming or withdrawing.
Yet even as a fan I’m not convinced we’ve seen enough to believe he’s really got what it takes to crash the top2’s party? That jump is still ginormous but at least I’ll be following his progress with interest now, this winter and a possible new team then next years early stage races are going to be important.
If anyone here were his ARMCHAIR DS what you y’all advise?
I’d say go to Ineos as leader, have Arensman, Bernal, Ganna/Tarling, C Swift, B Watson, A Lawrence as loyal domestiques while beating Vauquelin (if he signs) and Rodriguez (who I assume will leave soon) to sole leader – then shadow Pogacar all year learning as much as you can about following him and the power needed to do so.
And hope Ineos’ kids don’t suddenly start firing: AJ August, Schmidt, Leonard (who seems more of another TT specialist).
I’m equally intrigued by Onley. And kudos to you who gave him a shout before the start. 😎
The coming years will be interesting. I know I’ve earlier scoffed at the idea that Vingo would stop his career early, but I’m not so sure anymore. If Inrng is correct and his figures were better last year, I simply don’t see him go for the Tour anymore. He will probably chase the Giro and/or Vuelta for a few years. And Pog seems to hint that he might wind down, come 2028. So I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the last Pog-Vingo Tour. This will leave Pog with a comfortable margin to grab the next 3 tours unopposed before retirering and for a new generation of riders to fight it out in his shadow. Onley, Lipowitz maybe Jegat, Vaquelin and the expansive young UAE-crowd.
Vingegaard is 28; he will likely start to decline at about 30. So he likely has another two years of absolute peak performance. Pogacar is 26, and likely will start to decline in 2028/2029 (he may also be burnt out by then given he started at age 20).
Riders, if the sport is clean, need to break through at the age of 23 or younger. This is when adult males become fully developed, although some develop earlier (such as Ayuso). Onley is 22, so is the right age, with room for improvement since he didn’t start so young. He will likely be at his best in five years time. Pogacar and especially Vingegaard will be past their best by then. But who knows what other riders might appear.
A note of caution, using Onley’s excellent and thoroughly-deserved 4th place as a way of exploring a broader point.
Inrng mentioned in another post how, for all the justified kudos attached to Jegat’s 10th place, nobody would suggest that he is anywhere near the Top10 stage racers in the peloton. He is by no means the only surprise in this year’s Top10 on GC. There is always an attrition rate of GC contenders in Grand Tours. Big riders get sick, have crashes, downturns in form, jour sans, or come as support riders.
Remco, Almeida, Jorgenson, the Yates twins, Rodriguez, Mas – that’s a stellar list of guys who didn’t make the Top10 here but might be expected to do so multiple times if you reran the race 10 times. To reiterate, this happens in every GT.
Allied to this, the look of a Grand Tour Top10 is usually shaped in the second week. Who has ridden well and finished up there in the first mountain stages? Who has bombed and will now concentrate on stages or dots or has already gone home? Which teams will now ride for their guy to stay high on GC even if it wasn’t the plan beforehand and he will have to struggle mightily with an unexpected scenario which may be completely new to him? See eg. Vauquelin in this race. In this way, there is not so much a competition to get into the Top10 for much of the race as there is to steel yourself to staying there. To reiterate, this also happens in every GT.
So it can be very difficult to extrapolate from a dataset of 1 the future trajectory of young riders placing Top10 in a GT. This may be anecdata but here is the list of riders who have finished 4th in the Tour since 2009 – Wiggins, Gesink, Voeckler, Van Den Broeck, Contador, Valverde, Nibali, Adam Yates, Landa, Roglic, Buchmann, Landa again, O’Connor, Gaudu, Simon Yates, Almeida, Onley. Up and down, hit and miss.
If there’s one thing I would highlight as in Onley’s favour looking at his future career it would be not so much the achievement of 4th in itself as the way he achieved it. He looked to me like he grew into the role, came to accept it and he wore it with assurance and maturity in the 3rd week. There was a short period a year or so ago when he went to races as Max Poole’s helpmate and I wondered if he was about to spin down the plughole of the Spekenbrink system. That should not, must not, happen now.
I did try to note exactly the above by mentioning those riders who either didn’t finish or perform. My instinct is we’re this Tour to go to form Olney’s 4th is more likely 8th-10th, which is still a massive achievement for a 22 year old. He needs to back himself now to do more.
@oldDAVE. Onley has 12 and 8 minutes to make up on Pog and Vinny based on the Tour GC. That’s a huge gap to bridge and given he did not attack once during the Tour one he is unlikely to close even with pretty big improvements.
His best bet may be to hope their powers wane or they burn out – Vinny is a bit older than Pog – as he comes into his prime (while crossing his fingers that other riders haven’t overtaken him).
Yeah. Truthfully this is what I think also. I’m just hoping…
Sadly so. While 4th in the Tour is a fantastic achievement, I think there are already several young GC riders out there who are better than him – Lipo (obviously), del Toro and Torres among them. Romeo may rival them.
Ben O’Connor has finished high on GC multiple times, but I suspect that if he was forced to race like a serious contender that would not happen again. It will be interesting to see how Lipowitz and Onley advance (or don’t) in the GC hierarchy.
Mrs Beaton said “first catch a rabbit”. In Onley’s case I think he first has to catch Lipowitz.
Very good writing throughout the race. Thanks.
Thanks to Inrng yet again for the masterful coverage that increases enormously the understanding of a pretty average race-reader like myself.
With regard to the race as a whole could it be the case that Pog, and indeed others, finished distinctly more fatigued than previously?
I don’t have the stats to prove that, but Pog’s demeanor in the final few days suggested it.
Will there be a full analysis of the final stats at some point. It might give us some useful pointers.
That was very much my impression, too. Time will (likely) tell.
Another that wishes to thank inrng again for the fabulous daily insight.
Also the comments section, always worth reading for further insight and respectful, actual discussion (where else do you get that on the internet nowadays?!)
Thanks inrng again for fantastic coverage again, year in, year out!!
How about this for the combat fatigue and boredom, choose 4 towns/cities in France, have 4 stages around each town and then day off as they move and repeat, you could have town in North, Town in Centre, Alps, Pyrenees etc and final day in Paris. No daily transfers etc.. set piece stages (which Pog likes, none of this defending the jersey rubbish – he wants to race!)
I think this years Pog listened to the noise around the tour about him winning and dialled down his aggression but we ended up with bored Pog basically just waiting until the end of the stages for a quick dig and that’s it.
No doubt he could have taken every jersey (bar white) but it wouldn’t have been too popular with the sprinters on an already reduced parcour for them.
He is an extremely smart kid, possibly the best we have ever seen who just wants to race his bike (See the final stage when nothing at stake just having fun and racing). It really isn’t his fault that when he decides to attack very few riders can follow him and by default snags all the points in all the competitions.
The idea of being based in one place is good… but the Tour has to travel around the country more so it’s hard to do. That said there are times when riders get several nights at time in a hotel which is good but this can come with longer transfers, eg Toulouse for the rest day, but then back out of the Pyreenes to Toulouse after the stage, a long drive.
The Tour de Romandie puts riders in the same hotels all week so riders get the same room and don’t have to pack for a week which is welcome but means some days the stage starts or finishes close to the hotel but on most it’s a long drive on the bus. There are advantages and disadvantages.
@IanPa Pog maybe became the new Froome – great time trial, hit them hard early in the mountains and defend to the end!!!
Pogacar and this idea that he just can’t help himself is, to me, a very strange conceit.
He’s not thick; he’s not an ingenue; we know he has a big hand in saying where he rides and with whom; his public relations skills are not small. We know and happily acknowledge that he targets certain races which he very much wants to win eg. MSR and Roubaix. We know and happily acknowledge that he sees sporting revenge as a strong motivating factor eg. Hautacam and Loze in this race where he had suffered in previous editions.
Was he ‘just’ having fun and racing on that final stage with nothing at stake? And that as some sort of adrenaline rush after saying beforehand that he wouldn’t get involved. Or was he very keen to go with Prudhomme’s dream and be the guy in yellow winning solo on the Champs, a historic, iconic image for the ages? And that in spite of the real risk of crashing out in the rain and losing everything.
He’s an astonishingly good bike racer. He’s almost as good at projecting an image of himself to the rest of us. Don’t forget that he was reported to be livid a few years ago, after he’d won his first two TdF, about Roglic being more popular in Slovenia and that he saw overturning that as a major motivating factor in his career. Like Contador, and unlike Armstrong, he very much wants to be liked and, also like Contador and unlike Armstrong, he’s succeeding in that too. It can be a very helpful trait in negotiating life.
Blimey, this is a bit of an overwrought post after KevinR just made a good comparison? IanPa is allowed his opinion, no need to shout him down.
None of us are inside Pog’s head – if some think he wanted to share out the wins after being pricked by backlash or some think he was tired can’t we just say each to their own and leave it at that? None of us really know?
And the psychology feels a tiny meh –
‘Projecting an image of himself’ – we all do that? You can leave it to the intelligence of commenters here to believe or disbelieve as they see fit?
‘livid… about Roglic being more popular’ – where did you get this? Even if true he was 21 in the public eye for the first time, it’s a fair enough reaction, nothing sinister.
‘Was he ‘just’ having fun… go with Prudhomme’s dream and be the guy in yellow winning’ – can’t it be both? you’re allowed to have fun and be ambitious? They’re not exclusive and neither seem particularly bad?
‘We know and happily acknowledge that he sees sporting revenge as a strong motivating factor’ – do we? I think you’re going too far here, he might say ‘yes it would be nice to win where I once lost’ but that doesn’t make it a strong motivating factor. Maybe you’ve noted it’s a part of his motivation at times, but my gut feeling is that most assume (understandably) the fun of competing is what gets him going and again there’s no need to patronise those people (including me) who are able to understand that other factors/motivations might also play a role. My feeling is all sporting motivations can be myriad and even fleeting – revenge one day, history the next, general fun the next, survival the day after… no one is saying ‘fun is his only motivation’, and even if it were only revenge or only writing history, none of these seem particularly bad either, we all need something to get us out of bed!
‘he very much wants to be liked’ – again, yeah? most people do…
‘It can be a very helpful trait in negotiating life’ – I mean, this is fairly general and opening a whole can of worms on most human interactions since dayzero, so broad it’s sort of meaningless?
also I think ingénue is specifically for women? I may be wrong, apologies if so.
Most of the cyclists in the race care much less about individual climbs than the supporters. For most riders, the climbs are much-of-a-muchness: one 40 minute climb at 7.2 percent is just like another 42 minute climb at 7.1 percent. They really don’t notice the differences too much.
Dear me, Dave, that was a bit of an overwrought response.
ha this made me laugh – although would have more impact if you’d not overwrought the overwroughtness first!
It’s difficult to express sufficient gratitude for what you do here Monsieur Ring.
Like commenter Shearman above, I came across this site in 2010 and have been a daily visitor ever since. Even back then it felt like an outlier in an online world in which everything was becoming increasingly commodified. Nowadays it feels almost impossible that something this authentic exists.
We’re so very lucky you’ve chosen this humble blog as an outlet for your considerable talents.
Thank for your fantastic blog.
I don’t mean to talk your post down. But I believe the Tour was won when Gianetti was allowed to stay in the sport, many years ago.
It is not really a contest is it?
I can see why he attracts suspicion but he’s hardly the only team manager with suspicious past. One of the Roodhoft brothers has a doping conviction but nobody seems to raise this when Van der Poel wins… and that’s just starting with A for Alpecin, we go through the alphabet of teams to end with XDS and find Vinokourov etc.
It’s always suspicious to me when a rider begins their career with decent results and then transforms into a perennial grand tour contender. Lance Armstrong is a good example of this phenomena. There is a rider like this in the current peloton but his name isn’t Pogacar.
And his fish slinging numbers were insane
It is reasonable to have concerns. But there really is no evidence for any kind of doping in the current peloton. Maybe something will emerge in the future, but until it does, lets just enjoy the spectacle.
Nairo Quintana’s doctor’s trial has seen the doctor convicted, he’s now appealing but if he doesn’t overturn that then Quintana will likely face a hearing.
I wasn’t going to comment, as I had already added my thanks to the well deserved paean of praise for this blog. It just seemed a shame to let the last comment be a sour slur, after the enthusiastic and informed discussion above.
Adding my voice to the chorus of gratitude for your work, Inrng, which is absolutely exceptional. The depth of knowledge, the ability to filter out the noise and really read the race and it’s racers, the staggeringly broad and virtuosic cultural references, the delight in the niche and the quirky, the sheer wit (in multiple languages), and most of all the generosity to your readers: this really is a unique place. Thank you, as ever. Bonnes vacances!
There seems to be considerable speculation that Pogacar is losing enthusiasm and contemplating life after cycling. It’s hard to know if this is founded or simply the blogs desperate for copy to fill their post-tour columns.
If his passion is waning that would be unsurprising. Bleak altitude camps, food intake and weight checked to the gramme, a sports scientist huddled over a laptop spying on his zonal efforts and – heaven help – cake and coffee stops. Add to that the dangers of a tense and pressured bunch on roads littered with chicanes, speed bumps… Will near twenty-year careers such a those ‘enjoyed’ by Poulidor, Zoetemelk and Kelly continue to exist in the near future? Maybe the current rewards – at least at Pogacar’s level – make them unecessary.
I’d guess that’s a QTWTAIY. Some won’t feel the need, sure, for the reasons you mention and others too but it’s likely that there will always be some – maybe fewer, but some – who , if you like, live for the bike to a significant extent. Sagan, for example, definitely didn’t. But Valverde definitely did and does. His fingernails had to be prised off the hoods and I’d be surprised if he needed the money at the end of his career. Take almost any off-season in G’s career – would many people have put large sums of money on him having a twenty-year pro career when seeing him out on the lash and piling on the pounds? Yet here we are.
Also, there are other rewards than money that can be gained by staying in the game, of course. Personal motivation is a strange, wonderful and individual thing.
You’re right Mr (or Ms) A. Some will always feel that their love of the sport is enough to offset the discipline and danger which are integral parts of pro road racing. Who will they be? Recently-retired Kristoff had a long career in the modern peloton.
Apologies for the dropped ‘n’ in unnecessary!
Many riders have made statements at conclusion of Le Tour which mostly reflect their cuurent exhaustion from the entire process of the race. See what he says at the end of the season.
I think that there is also a flip side to this. Everything you mention sounds overbearing and a nightmare for most people who want a bit of freedom in their life. But it is also in a way taking all the pressure of life off you. All the day to day thinking and planning that most of us have to do doesn’t apply to anyone in the pro peloton, or any other professional sportsman really. Some will become completely reliant on it and unable to perceive of life without it and will have to be forced to retire when they don’t get a contract. Even then they’ll keep doing gravel races and triathlons, and only the odd fleck of grey hair will differentiate their appearance from their heyday.
factor into that, that the best riders now go straight from juniors into senior competition, so are at their max from aged 19/20, rather than being eased into things through the U23 ranks. Possibly they will then lose those 3-5yrs at the end of their careers through injury/exhaustion/boredom?.
it’s a funny conversation this one cause we’ve all been thinking it but no one really knows yet… I kinda think it’s a lottery and they could easily go longer with better recovery etc all that cherry juice! It seems fair to assume careers might be shorter as you say but also fair to go the other way. When Pog’s winning his 15th Tour we’ll know!
Pogacar “is now at the risk of exhausting some fans because of the lack of a contest” – for the first time ever I stopped watched Le Tour to play Snake on my phone!
One would need to do a comparative analysis of both previous tours (and Giro plus Vuelta for good measure) but a true sign of Pog’s dominance is that only one other GC top 10 rider even won a stage this year (Ben Healy, 9th at 28 minutes down). So the field was excessively polarised between stage winners and GC chasers with only Pog doing both.
I don’t know what to make of this but as others have said it’s clear that JV wasn’t really at the races this year. And time bonuses were a non-thing, all the gaps being just too big.
FWIW the final placings of the stage winners were, in order to: dnf-dnf-148-1-dnf-9-1-146-148-18-71-1-1-12-37-41-146-11-12-86-67
146 and 148 both appear twice, but there are no other 3 figure numbers. The gambler’s fallacy.
Or the sprinters revenge 148 and 146 are Milan and Merlier!
Enjoyed this take JM87 – would just like to see how it compares to a bigger selection of Tours
Thank you for another year of engrossing and insightful coverage and beautiful prose.
Beyond personal ambition or ambivalence about competing in the Tour in 2026, what role does politics play in persuading Pogi and JV to the start in Barcelona next year?
@Anon CA
“Beyond personal ambition or ambivalence about competing in the Tour in 2026, what role does politics play in persuading Pogi and JV to the start in Barcelona next year”
It’s an interesting question. And I think it has changed the last month or so, based on the results from the Tour.
As I see it (and it’s my own gut feeling without much hard evidence..), Vingo probably peaked in 23-24. Even with his horrendous crash in early 24 his numbers in the tour where better than ever – and better than this year (I believe Mr Ring himself supports this view..). Pog has moved in another direction. Somehow he has been transformed to a Pog 2.0 without any real dips over the season in both 24 and 25 – if you count out his moody and snarly appearence in the 3rd week’s tour. And I see little to convince me that this will change come 26.
Contrary to others in the blog, I don’t see Vingo end his career just yet, even though it might come earlier than his contract at VLAB indicates. But do I see arguments for Vingo skipping the Tour next year. It was pretty obvious to me that neither Pog nor Vingo had the spring in their steps as in 21-24 and if Vingo is on a downward trajectory I can understand why VLAB (and himself) might want to focus on a Giro-Vuelta double instead. UAE will obviously still aim at Pog doing the next 3 tours and then a – plausible – career end at the ’28 olympics. And without Vingo it should be walkover for Pog if can maintain something close to this form. And with no Vingo he can just do the 99% he will need to win the handful of stages without going deep. Vingo, who has never been nowhere near Pog’s ability to run a 7 month season at peak, will be able to run the 2×2 months his physique will permit. And can retire at the end of ’26 or ’27 at the latest with 1-2 GT’s more under his belt. If we wins the Vuelta this year and the Giro in ’26, why should he continue? And for VLAB a Giro win will ranke higher than 2-3 second places in the Tour.
So let’s see. I’ll keep this at look back in a few years. 😉
Pogacar: Tired at the end of a gruelling Tour, recovering from a crash which injured his arm, with a cold. The weather is awful: wet and cold. His mountain team had fallen apart meaning he couldn’t race for stage victories: and he doesn’t enjoy the passive way Jonus often races. He finds the circus around the Tour exhausting. He isn’t his usual cheerful self. He just needs a break.
Vingegaard: Sickness in his team means they fell apart in week 2-3. But going to the Vuelta this year which he will almost certainly win. Next year he may very well do the Giro. He will definitely be back at the Tour next year: in his own mind two bad days is all that stood in the way of parity. He hasn’t given up on winning the Tour just yet and he is certain to come second if he doesn’t win. And he enjoys racing Pogacar, whom on a personal level he likes.
I think people are over-analysing things. Neither are on the point of retiring.
I’ll split the difference between MM and John on this.
Overall, I agree with MM’s points about JV and TP’s developments, but I highly doubt Visma would want JV to skip the Tour. He remains, as he has been for the last five tours, the only rider capable of closely matching TP. If it weren’t for his two bad days, the margin between them could have been minimal. I’m sure he’ll give it another shot next year, possibly attempting the Giro-Tour double.
With all due respect to the rest of the field, it would be a disaster for ASO to have only TP as a contender. As much as I admire him and his style, pro cycling doesn’t need a walkover or a 10+ minute winning margin in the most high-profile event on the cycling calendar.
The last sentence highlights a paradox of sporting achievement and its appreciation. Short-term? No, maybe not. Long-term? Yes, probably.
In the moment, race organisers, administrators, fans, media can all bemoan the downsides of over-dominance and frequently look at ways and means to level the playing field. But looking back across the history of a sport – any sport, cycling and its Golden Ages and GOATs included – we celebrate and glorify the over-achievers, the truly dominant, and both bow to and aspire to their greatness.
@ Anton @ Anonymous.
Anonymous is very right that sports often rise with a dominate figurehead despite longterm fans getting aggravated by walkovers.
At the same time many podcasts I listen to have highlighted this year’s TDF actually fell in ratings. Unfortunately extrapolating solid arguments as to why from this are extremely difficult and perversely you might even argument to even say they ‘fell’ is misleading…
But I think Pogacar being Slovenian is in the mix somewhere… were he American or French it would be a very different story. Even though it feels a shame to say this as Slovenia is a great country and it’s nothing to do with them nor Pog they happen to have a small population and pro cycling has too small a reach or lacklustre infrastructure to bring eyeballs from elsewhere when the big nations are going through dry patches.
As for 10min+ winning margins… I do think it’s often forgotten how many Tours have been won dominantly, in my long watching history it’s the vast majority – this is the norm, 2011, 2020 were the anomalies… so I doubt the management is fretting too much about large winning margins (even if I agree with you maybe it should be more of an overall priority).
Also we should probably note that Pog did not win by 10mins, he actually won by just over 4 and rode defensively to protect this lead so if we take it that Pog is the most dominant rider for a long time and even he’s not winning by 10mins, I don’t think ASO have a huge amount to worry about giant winning margins. Although you might argue the difference between 4 and 10mins is’t necessarily the number itself it’s the nature of the victory.
I tend to agree.
Overall, TP has been a great asset to cycling, but his dominance isn’t always beneficial. Personally, I’ve skipped a few races, including this year’s Strade, because I assumed it would be a walkover. Of course, my preferences don’t matter if millions of others are tuning in to watch him dominate, but I’m not convinced that’s sustainable in the long run. People admire GOATs, but will they stay glued to the screen for hour after hour of one-sided dominance? Long-term, probably not.
As it is, and as a German, nothing would make me happier than seeing Lipowitz crush TP on the first climb of the Tour ’26. 😉
Oops – the above was to Anonymous. I’ll answar oldDAVE later. I’m a rookie understanding the way the reply here works…
->oldDAVE
I’m not sure how viewers and listeners kept up with this Tour. After Hautacam, I focused on Lipowitz rather than the TP-JV duel, though I can only assume that several million Germans did the same.
I agree with your take on TP/Slovenia. Although many, I believe, saw the ’22 battle between TP and JV as one of the greatest Tours ever, even though Slovenia and Denmark aren’t the biggest nations in Europe (and I say this with no negativity—I love both countries and have traveled extensively in both).
My point about the winning margin wasn’t so much about the minutes but the level of competition. I enjoy watching TP win and appreciate his aggressive optimism, but—and I might be in the minority here—I skipped the last hour of the Worlds last year because, in my opinion, it became too embarrassing. Cycling needs that mano-a-mano dimension to remain interesting in the long run. If the Tour lacks this to some extent, then what?
Of course, none of this is TP’s fault, and I don’t think ASO should—or realistically can—level the playing field. It is what it is. However, my point is that if JV doesn’t race in ’26, I’m pretty sure the event will be far less exciting and will impact media and spectator engagement. As much as I’m rooting for Lipo… 😉
ps think you nailed it.
@John sorry – think you nailed it.
Just to chip into this, but Vingegaard is almost certainly not going to do the Vuelta, then the Giro and then the Tour. That would be 4 back to back grand tours, which no serious contender would do.
I think if him not doing the Tour next year became a serious proposition then ASO would have to get their cheque book out and make it worth his while. Pogacar on his own , unless they amend the route to be a 3 week tour of Normandy and Brittany, would be an absolute non event.
Vingegaard doing Tour-Vuelta in 2025 and then Giro-Tour in 2026. This is two grand tours for two years. I am less sure it is a problem then you, and many GC riders do this kind of programme. It is not three grand tours in a year (only two), and only one each year against Pogacar. I guess we will find out next year.
PS. There is, in my view, no chance that ASO would pay a rider to attend the Tour. They never have before. That is something only the Giro does.
PPS. Vingegaard is already 28. He is running out of time to tick off the Giro: if not next year then when? Without Pogacar he should not find it too challenging to win it. Riders generally pass their peak around 30 (ignoring the Doping Era [c.1990-c.2007] and the immediate post-doping period, when they peaked later due to how doping worked). He will have to do it soon if he wants to make sure it is on his palmares.
Ahem Froome did it and nearly won all four
@Samuel G, do you think in hindsight Froome would take 5 Tour wins or 4 Tours, 2 Vueltas and 1 Giro?
The Giro gave him the greatest day of his career and a renewed respect of cycling diehards who’d fallen out of love with the previous few years of walkovers – but 5 Tours is what etches your name into the pantheon of greats!
I think Richard S does have a point about 4 Tours in succession but at the same time this new generation might cope better with the demands of this given new recovery methods etc, especially knowing JV is step beyond most competition as Froome was not during his Giro/Tour double attempt, unless on of Pog’s lieutenants makes a step over the winter.
@john, @anton, @anonymous, @oldDave
Thanks everyone for the comments! I appreciate and understand your perspectives.
That said, I still believe the team’s (and the rider’s own) assessment of his position in a potential GC battle carries more weight than you might think. So, I’m sticking with my prediction, fully aware it might come back to haunt me in 11 months. Vingo will *not* ride the Tour next year. 😉
Vingegaard has clearly hinted that he wants to ride the Giro. Next year seems like the obvious choice. In that case, his participation in the Tour will likely be reviewed after the Italian job.
I think he’d be interested in taking on the Tour again, but not at any cost. His family issues are still a factor….
Thank you for great commentary. A brilliant write up.
As a newcomer this year (I only discovered the site just before the Tour), I have to add to the praise. This blog stands unmatched in the cycling world.
Just out of interest did anyone watch San Sebastián?
Great to see Ciccone get a deserved win. Hope to see some more deserved luck for him in coming months.
Wondering whether people tuned into this or the Tour Femmes given the choice? Or neither.
It’s fair to be cycled out following the Tour and I suspect if anything more were drawn to a remarkable stage on the Madeleine. Excellent of PPV and France, it’s a joy to see the Tour Femmes go from strength to strength.
Although I also wonder aloud as always what sense this all makes to have so many great races overlapping or drowning each other out, Sebastian seems to have suffered most now the Tour Femmes is finding its feet, a few years ago it seemed like the perfect Tour digestif but now it’s an afterthought to the women’s brilliant finales. I guess just another bizarre quirk of an absurd schedule.
Don’t see any live racing, not being robbed by tnt subscription not now not ever!
By sheer coincidence, I came across the live feed (I had completely forgotten it was happening), and it turned out to be an incredibly rewarding race. I really like Ciccone, and the race itself was one of the best and most unpredictable on the World Tour this year. Along with the Giro, it’s on my “best-of-the-year” list.
Agree it was unpredictable in the sense that one thought, say, 30kms out that not even the UAE tactical brainiacs could screw up here. UAE Brainiac Hivemind: “Hold my beer!”
😉
Mikkel Bjerg has—at least in Danish media—been quite critical of Jan Christian. He’s been portrayed as a rather unlikeable and not particularly smart individual. Paired with Del Toro, who still seems to mess up occasionally, it created an intriguing dynamic…
I missed the live broadcast, but the recap looked interesting. I enjoy watching Del Toro (probably the only UAE rider I care about), with his tendency to either shine like a star or completely mess things up.
I wish Ayuso could rediscover that do-or-die mentality he had earlier. I really hope he leaves UAE as soon as possible and joins a decent team.
Del Toro is still only 21(!) yrs old. Can’t expect him to automatically have the tactical experience of a mid-to-late 20s racer.
@Tom – I absolutely agree! That’s also why I like him as rider!
@MediumMig – I agree here as well. I’m not sure about Ayuso. According to Danish TV reporters (though I can’t recall which one), he’s not part of the Pogacar clique at UAE. However, since he’s heading to the Vuelta as a shared (?) captain, he still has the team’s support. With his contract not expiring until 2028, I’d be surprised if he suddenly switched teams.
UAE own the rights to Ayuso for the next three years, but it just means that anyone wanting to buy him out will pay a hefty premium. I can think of a few teams who might be desperate enough to spend big for a legitimate gc threat…
Why is everyone blaming Del Toro for the stupid move Jan Christen did?
Torito sat fine with Ciccone until Christen decided to bridge to his teammate, bring Powless with him, attack every and fade.
I agree with most of this. The UAE tactics were odd, but the real issue was Jan Christian, not Del Toro. Christian has immense talent, but he’s riding recklessly.
One more thing to add to the latest thread. There seems to be a general understanding that Juan Ayuso might leave (or at least wants to leave) UAE. I’ve come across several discussions on other blogs and media as well, but they lack substantial evidence. It’s understandable if he feels pressured and isn’t one of Pog’s favorites, which could put him in a tough spot. However, is there any concrete evidence or statement from him to support this?
The only real evidence is the following:
(a) There are several GC riders at UAE (Alemeida, Ayuso, Del Toro, A.Yates) as well as Pogacar who want a chance at leadership in a Grand Tour, and can at least podium. There aren’t enough opportunities to go round (even if Yates is likely done as a GC-rider at grand tours after this year).
(b) Ayuso has hired a new agent to help or replace his father, who was previously acting for him. This may-or-may-not be a prelude for attempting to move to another team.
Additionally, not really proper evidence since it is no more than my impression, but to me it looks like some of the other riders in the team don’t want to domestique for him.
Some people also claim that Pogacar doesn’t want him as a domestique, or that Ayuso refuses to act for him. But I don’t think this is really true. While Ayuso was not particularly helpful on several stages at the 2024 Tour (to the ire of A.Yates and Almeida), later in the summer he was exemplary as a domestique for Pogacar at the two Canadian classics. Too much, in my view, has been made of what happened at the Tour last year.
Thx John – good points!
@Ryan
Agree with John’s points.
There’s been plenty of speculation in the Spanish media since ’24, and Ayuso hasn’t helped by giving evasive answers about his relationship with Pogacar, even directly stating that they are not personally friends. Ayuso is incredibly talented but equally ambitious, and as John hints, he has likely stepped on a few toes at UAE. While I don’t think there’s any concrete evidence of deeper issues, Ayuso is professional enough to do what’s required of him. However, my gut feeling is that he’s understandably worried about being pushed down to fourth in the UAE hierarchy, and if that happens, he’ll leave as soon as he gets the chance.
In my opinion, it may be best for all concerned for Ayuso to move to another team. This isn’t because Ayuso is a bad person or bad colleague, but more because there are simply too many condidates for GC-leadership and too few GT opportunities. Understandably, this can cause tensions between the secondary leaders, which I think has happened at UAE.
To me, the ascent of Del Toro is a very important piece of the puzzle. UAE simply don’t need all the gc talent that they have. The question in my mind is how interested they are in helping him continue his career elsewhere.
It’s funny the amount of airtime Ayuso gets – although a 3rd and 4th at the Vuelta at 20 and 21 is impressive so I guess it makes sense despite the missteps at last years Tour and this years Giro (whether bad luck or self inflicted).
In all the above it feels like a few points aren’t factored in:
1) leaving the best team and all their training methods isn’t an easy sell to jump onto Movistar where he’ll have weaker backroom support and rider support – as far as I can see he’s in a better position to win any GC currently at UAE than he would be at MV. So in a sense what’s the attraction?
2) Money. Not just his own pay check but presumably if he wants the kind of trainer support he gets at UAE then he’d need to invest some of his own pay check at MV, so why go for pos net less money, more stress, weaker support?
The only argument I can see for him leaving UAE is that it’s crowded and he’s getting lost in the mix and Pog’s shadow. Which is a good reason but if he does leave I would firmly expect his level to drop at least initially before he worked to refit the team to his standards, if he has the energy and management support following their new funding boost. All is possible but it’s a lot to ask if a 22 year old.
I find in life that if you’re unsure it’s always best to wait so if I were Ayuso I’d wait another season, see where he places in this Vuelta and next years Giro in the hope of better results. Then see how Movistar are doing, at which point if things go to plan his value will be higher following the dip of the last 12months, his contract will be closer to finished and the prospective team might be showing signs of life so less work/stress when he arrives.
If conversely he’s failed and his GC ambitions are looking miserable or Movistar are still floundering, he already has a contract till 2028 and maybe it’s best to see it out and regain form or become a deluxe domestique.
Moving now to me only really makes sense if he’s nervous of ever being able to compete at the top and Movistar are offering a huge contract that he decides is the best he’s likely to ever get so has to take.
All good points. My persepctive is that Ayuso is a bit young to become a “deluxe domestique, and not yet ready to give up on his own ambitions. This is typical of younger riders; great domestics tend to be nearer the end of their career and have given up on their own ambitions (often because they have achieved as much as they can).
Ayuso’s problem is that he might not even get to go to the Giro next year, and then he could be stuck riding the Vuelta with Pogacar as his only Grand Tour. Moviestar have some rich backers: I believe if they have a serious GC rider on their books (and I would suggest this holds for Ayuso) then they can find some more money to support that rider; but the money will only be there if they sign a top GC-rider.
oh yes I wasn’t saying become a domestique now, I meant if things don’t pan out in the coming years dependent on the decisions he makes…
Because yes deluxe domestiques usually make the switch later but that’s not always true especially during the era of a dominant rider/s – look at Almeida, he’s still young and was furious when asked to work for Remco (justifiably) a few years ago at the Giro but then made the switch to UAE to be a domestique for Pog at the same time as developing into the rider he’s become.
Wout Poels is a good example from the previous generation, he was 25 when switching to Sky despite some very promising results similar to Almeida and probably won more/did more as a domestique than he would have riding for himself.
Ayuso is possibly on a different level as a junior to both but if he fails to make Top10’s consistently in the coming Grand Tours he may end up at a similar cross roads at a young age where he knows he can’t race the best over three weeks but he can have the power to win one week races and help in Tours – similar to Ritchie Porte maybe.
He may also win this Vuelta, win next year Giro and go on to be a great, who knows currently so probably not worth the airtime!
I agree with what you are saying. Although I think some people like to become domestiques at a young age since they do not like the stress of leadership, where lots of people’s jobs depends on your performance (Kuss is a good example, but there are many others).
Further remark: Vingegaard is 28, Pogacar is 26, Almeida is 26, Evenepoel is 25. If you were going to bet on someone who is 21-23, I think Ayuso might be someone to bet on. Who would really be a better bet for the future? Unlike some of the others at that age, Ayuso has podiumed grand tours and won several big one-week stage races. He also gets stage wins. And at that age, there is likely improvement to come.
Aside: on a personal level, I don’t think he will turn-out to be the best of the riders in his age-group. But I can understand why someone else would think he is worth taking a chance on. At the very worst he will get the sort of results Remco gets in stage races.
I agree that Ayuso is a little over sold. He’s good but amongst the current crop of GC men 2nd, maybe even 3rd tier. A substantial investment in him certainly doesn’t guarantee a Giro or Vuelta win, or a Tour podium.
At UAE he is obviously subservient to Pogacar, as anyone would be. But he may also now have been jumped in the pecking order by Del Toro, and is about on a par with Almeida. So if Almeida gets the better of him at the Vuelta he may be 4th in line. Leaving and being GC leader somewhere else would be good for him I think, but not at Movistar for the reasons you have stated. He’d be in danger of being Mas Mk II. He might be better served by joining whichever of Bora and Ineos doesn’t get Evenepoel, or indeed Quick Step if they want to maintain a GC threat in the absence of Evenepoel.
Leaving and being GC leader somewhere else would also benefit the fans of the sport, as it’s problematic to have so many potential GC stars hoarded within the same team. So in that sense, I certainly hope that he makes a move sooner rather than later.
I think you also need to take into account his psychology – a happy rider is a fast rider.
If Ayuso is unhappy on UAE for whatever reason – due to conflict with others, or just feeling like he’s undervalued – it could explain some of his underperformances…in that sense, a move to a different team could result in a performance boost