After previewing the mountains competition, time for the points competition and the green jersey contenders where a tricky course awaits the pure sprinters.
Do the maths
As ever, the pedant knows “it’s not the sprinter’s jersey, it’s the points competition” but the expert knows the flatter stages offer far more points:
- Flat stages (Stages 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,11,15,17,21) 50-30-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3 and 2 points for the first 15 riders
- Hilly finish / Medium mountain stages (Stages 6,16,20): 30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2 points
- Mountain Stages + individual TT (Stages 5,10,12,13,14,18,19) : 20-17-15-13-11- 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
- Intermediate sprints: 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
Note how the points scale rewards wins on the flat stages, 50 points for first, and just 20 for third; while third on a hilly day, even atop Mont Ventoux, actually offers marginally more points for third place down.
How to win?
There are two broad methods:
- Win a lot: First is for a sprinter to enjoy a winning streak and by virtue of three or four stage wins they’ve got 150 or 200 points from this alone, plus more from placing on other stages and from contesting intermediate sprints. Mark Cavendish won this way in 2021 thanks to four stages, likewise Jasper Philipsen in 2023
- Place n’raid: The other was typified by seven time points competition winner Peter Sagan who would place in the sprints and gain points on days when the pure sprinters were thwarted by gravity; he even won the green jersey once without a stage win along the way. In 2022 Wout Van Aert did not win a bunch sprint but instead won solo, took an uphill finish and time trial too to become the first rider and last rider since Sagan to get over 400 points
2025 route
This year’s route has no intermediate sprint placed midway in a mountain stage where a versatile rider in the Sagan-Van Aert archetype can get away over a first or HC-rated climb and score when rivals are just trying to stay with the gruppetto.
However the pure sprinters have it much harder this year. There are only five obvious sprint stages: Stage 1 to Lille, Stage 3 to Dunkerque, Stage 8 to Laval, Stage 9 to Châteauroux and Stage 17 to Valence. Not long ago they’d get five chances in the opening week alone. The other days, including the Paris finale, now have a sprinkling of climbs in the finish. And yet many of these days that will exclude some sprinters are still labelled “flat” and so offer 50 points to the winner.
The Contenders
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) has the bar set high, just one stage win won’t be enough as he has a whole team in his service. He’s had multiple stage wins in the past and won the points competition in 2023 too, in part because he can handle some hilly finishes. Mathieu van der Poel (pictured) can offer him a lead-out that no other sprinter gets too. This is where it gets interesting because Van der Poel is a contender for several stages and can score a lot of points on days when some sprinters won’t so it’ll be interesting to see how the pair function. Nobody is expecting beefy spats, more questions of priorities and allocation, for example would both go for the day’s intermediate sprint? Van der Poel has had discreet tours before but has a lot to like in the opening week and beyond but it depends on motivation and team management picking between the two.
Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) makes his Tour debut and is arguably the stand-out sprinter, if only because of his towering size and stampeding style, he should win one stage and can take more. This physical presence is impressive but his win rate is variable, he’s not yet the finished article. He’s the bookmaker’s favourite for green which is understandable but questionable too. He can handle short climbs but one test might be the mountains where tight time cuts await and his size is a challenge if it’s hot. Thibau Nys is another debutant and there’s a similar story to Alpecin with the team deciding who to back for hillier finishes.
Would Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) sign today for the opening stage win and the yellow jersey and nothing else? Possibly, he’s almost a local and like many has been eyeing this day since the route was unveiled back in 2023. He’s certainly in form and arguably the quickest sprinter in terms of speed and torque in the final 100 metres. He shares resources with Remco Evenepoel’s GC aspirations. A win the points competition is harder to see as he doesn’t climb so well.
Three stages and the points jersey for Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) in 2024 but he hasn’t had a win since so a repeat looks hard. He didn’t have a sizzling season before last year’s Tour either so could surprise again. He won the points competition in part because he was good on the hilly finishes and this range helps for the green jersey again.
Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco) is still delivering at the highest level, just not as often and so a stage win is likely but a tilt at the green jersey harder, especially as the mountains are a challenge.
A points winner in 2022 Wout Van Aert (Visma-LAB) hasn’t won a Tour stage since. He still can, and his versatility means he’s an obvious contender for green again but that summer seemed a peak and his multi-tasking to win for himself and help Jonas Vingegaard along the way looks hard to replicate so he’ll have to be more selective.
Jordi Meeus (RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe) has a tour stage to his name, for the anecdote he might have won the last ever Champs Elysées sprint so he can beat the big names but he’s an infrequent winner.
Among the others, Mike Teunissen (XDS-Astana) won the opening stage in 2019 but it’d be a surprise to repeat. Pascal Ackermann (IPT) could get a win with the right opening but the names mentioned already make it hard. Is Arnaud De Lie (Lotto) a sprinter? He might contest some sprints and the opening week’s hilly days suit but he’s been struggling all season and struggling to match the expectations that his rise had created. Marijn Van den Berg (EF) is good in hilly finishes but proabably to the point of sitting out on other days to bet everything on one win. Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain) can pop up to win but tends to win 2-3 races a season and is still after his first grand tour stage. Never say never for Alberto Dainese (Tudor) but a Tour win would be an upset. Paul Penhoët (Groupama-FDJ) a bantamweight sprinter for hilly days still searching for a World Tour win. Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-B&B) might have a win left in him but it’s a big ask to deliver at the Tour, especially as he’s prone to being bumped off a wheel these days.
Uno-X leave Alexander Kristoff behind but in come Søren Wærenskjold, Stian Fredheim and Magnus Cort and the ability to use each one on different days, with Wærenskjold as the dragster for flat stages but a valued lead-out into uphill finishes.
This is the Tour so Tobias Lund and and Pavel Bittner aren’t here for work experience but the Picnic-PostNL pair will find it hard to find a way through.
The third team with choices is Cofidis where Bryan Coquard has been close to win in the pastt but he’s 33, his win rate dropping and having to rely on guile. He’s done well for points, consistently chasing intermediate sprints. But this time we’ll see if Alex Aranburu and Alexis Renard could tread on his toes, or ideally place as well and score.
Finally we get Tadej Pogačar. He’s been fourth and third in the points competition before. But a long way behind, in 2022 Van Aert had 480 points and Pogačar was on 250. The year’s course suits him the most, the opening week could tempt him to go for stages and so he can start scoring and there are 50 pointers for him here. Plus if no sprinter gets a hat-trick of wins then he could be closer going into the third week but it’s still hard, five stage wins like last year delivers 30 x 5 = 150 points. The path to victory could mean he’d have to get involved in the intermediate sprints too, while he’s a glutton for results that would risky.
I think Lidl-Trek should have brought Pedersen. He could have gone for the more hilly finishes, leaving the flatter stages for Milan. One or both could then go for the green jersey on top of that.
That would have been a lot more exciting – and I daresay bring them a lot more coverage – than Skjelmose presumably riding for a top ten.
I also hope that MVDP is allowed to ride for himself on the lumpier stages, and isn’t made to lead out Philipsen on those. But I daresay he will have to do that, as they’ll want Philipsen to take green. (The points jersey used to mean a lot more before it wasn’t so skewed towards sprinters.)
Lidl-Trek have to manage their talent and share out opportunities. Pedersen at one point probably thought he should go too and his form in the Giro showed he’ll be missed but as well as giving Milan priority a times there’s Nys to manage as well and he’s promising.
We’ll see for Van der Poel, it’s just an impression but he doesn’t seem to enjoy the Tour much but his team and their sponsors need him here. A green jersey would add to his achievements, he’s capable. It’s always a surprise to remember he has only one stage win to his name.
I’m very interested to see how Nys does. But I think they could have Milan, Nys and Pedersen. Theuns or Simmons could be left out.
I’d like to see MVDP go for green – this seems a pretty ideal parcours for this attempt, and it would seem only fair after he’s dedicated himself to Philipsen a fair amount in previous Tours.
Can’t see an American sponsored team leaving the US Champ at home.
Simmons rode well in the Tour 2 yrs ago.
Van der Poel is a great one day racer. The daily grind ain’t for him. I can’t see him going for anything other than a stage or two and a glory day yellow.
He’s helped Philipsen a lot and attacked on a number of stages – sometimes stages where he had almost zero chance of winning, so I can imagine him working at it. He’s likely to finish the race anyway, so the only extra work would be not pulling off after leading out Philipsen in sprints. And he could go for his own chances – maybe even in Paris.
I agree with you, and also with Inring above when he says that MvdP doesn’t seem to enjoy the Tour (aside from the beginning 2021 Tour, where he got his only TdF stage win out of 5 Tour starts). On paper he seems like an easy points jersey winner, but there’s nothing theoretical about racing a grand tour
I think the key to the points jersey is the placing of the intermediate sprints. With two exceptions, the peloton only have to climb a Cat 4 at most before the intermediate sprints this year. The two exceptions are stage 10 (need to climb a Cat 2 although only 4.1km at 6.3 percent) and stage 20 (climb a Cat 3). This will mean, almost certainly (in my opinion) the jersey will go to an out-and-out sprinter, and will be won by contesting the intermediate sprints.
Interestingly just been listening to the Cycling Podcast and their theory was that it was very unlikely that the green jersey would be won by an out and out sprinter. The thinking was MVDP would be strongly placed. I think it will be an intriguing competition.
Yes, I thought that too. But looing at the intermediate sprints, there seem to be only 2 stages in which sprinters will not win any intermediate points: the big mountain stages have the sprint in the first 25 km, for example. Even though there are very few sprint stages and lots of stages for puncheurs, competing in the intermediate sprints will get a lot of points.
I do agree that the tension in the competition will be whether MVDP can get enough points to hold off the sprinters.
It’ll be hard to get that winning streak of 3-4 stage wins that has helped the eventual winner of late. As you say the intermediate sprints will count a lot, it’ll be interesting to see which sprinters contest them and which sit them out in the early days of the race.
This –
‘Note how the points scale rewards wins on the flat stages, 50 points for first, and just 20 for third; while third on a hilly day, even atop Mont Ventoux, actually offers marginally more points for third place down.’
– is classic UCI. Doesn’t make sense within their own system.
Note the UCI don’t set the points, it’s down to the organisers and why each race has its own points scale, eg the Giro is more sprinter-friendly with 50 on flat days but only 25 on hilly days and just 15 for mountain stages etc.
Mea culpa. I’ve fallen into the trap of blaming the UCI for everything.
I still can’t see the sense in rewarding 1st place more on flat days and 3rd place more on hilly days.
‘Jordi Meeus … might have won the last ever Champs Elysées sprint’ – do you think the new route might be permanent fixture then?
I’d like to see them do this and the ‘traditional’ route on alternate years – always good to have variety.
It will depend on how the Paris stage goes (a major crash will kill the idea). And also if the city government are happy with the disruption.
So much of the race design these days is driven by the need to provide “good TV”, I suspect much will depend on the outcome of the final stage. If (very small chance) there is “GC action” then there will be pressure to repeat it. On the other hand if we see the stage won by a break with the bunch rolling in behind then it will be back to the “sprinters world championships”
Yeah. I’d like to see the stage finish rotate – maybe that will happen, they should give this ‘new’ finish a chance to find its place over a few editions. Then, when we do get the ‘sprinters world champs’ it will feel even more special.
But at this point I’m quite interested in having it mixed up a bit. I wouldn’t be against a split stage – a morning TT followed by the trad crit sprinters stage. Or even just a flat out TT in 2029, celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Lemond/Fignon finish. Make it nice and long, something for Remco to aim at.
(My pick for Green – and MvdP powered Philipsen. If it ain’t broke etc etc).
It might be the crashiest-looking first week (actually nine days) of a Tour I’ve ever seen, so there’s a decent chance we get a surprise winner.
I’d be terrifed as a rider facing up to such consistently high-risk stages. Meanwhile, the UCI is worried about handlebars
Don’t narrow handlebars lessen one’s ability to control the bike? (I know nothing about riding.)
This year’s course doesn’t look worse than 2021 or 2023 and there are some things to try and mitigate the risks, but they’re on the margins as it’s the Tour and so maximum pressure.
On handlebars, the worry has more come from riders about this asking the UCI to act, the idea is an example of a dilemma issue where riders know narrower bars might help make them individually faster but if lots do it puts them collectively at risk because of the handling risks. It’s one measure the UCI can take, it can’t go too much further and isn’t addressing the root causes.
Similarly before the Tour starts there’s a big sports science forum, Science and Cycling, and among the things from nasal breathing to mini cranks and much shorter warm-up protocols, one of the keynote speeches was from RedBull’s Dan Bigham on speed and safety in the race and the short version is that restricting gear size won’t make much difference, 0.3% of the speed. Instead the big increase comes from aero bikes and clothing (side note: Luke Durbridge said he visited a wind tunnel and these days he’s almost as quick on road bike as a TT bike and given his Giant TT bike is itself advanced it shows the massive gains, and one factor among several why speeds are higher). But the UCI will struggle to outlaw aero road bikes, politically impossible.
Bigham said having tires that explode less (looking at you, hookless rims) and having helmets that are tested/approved for more realistic crash test scenarios seen in racing would have a bigger impact on rider safety.
Interesting stuff, thanks. It defies belief that these tyres are used. This is a point on which the riders need to get together and refuse to ride on them.
In a recent Flemish podcast young rider Dries De Pooter (that chap speaks very well, he should get his own talk show some day) was also strongly opposed to restricting gearing as a means to limit rider speed. He was singling out the TV motor bikes as a an important reason for high speeds. Apparently in the recent Kopenhagen Sprint race the TV motorbike basically paced the peloton around for the whole day. It’s plausible but I’m not sure if this is true, I guess you really have to be a part of the peloton to know if it impacts the speed so much. In general criticisms on bikes and cars in the races are often heard from riders. Dries by the way has also often criticised his colleagues for unsafe behaviour, so I don’t believe he’s just looking for a scapegoat outside of the peloton.
Commuting all the time in a city here: You definitely notice a strong effect if there’s a motorbike within a few lengths ahead of you. Even going uphill in the alps, at lowish speeds though the switchbacks, I could notice a draught effect following motos.
Have just been scrolling down the start-list and was surprised to see Groves name there. Trying to work out if it is to boost the sprint train or to act like a spare tyre.
No start for Brennan.
Brennan is very young (as is Seixas). I am actually very glad the teams are insisting on slowly introducing him to adult racing.
I would like Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco) to go well but it does not climb enough to win the green jersey if all the competitors win.
But if he is wearing those glasses you have in the side profile photo above with some sort of vulture construct in the middle than no i don’t want him to win. Those glasses go with the Dark Vader helmets in the looks to stupid to be allowed category.
Dylan is a hill detector and Jayco are a team who rarely get the tactics right so I think you are safe.
With the new lumpy Paris stage and the extremely hilly final week or so I reckon some of the heavier, hill averse ‘pure’ sprinters – Merlier and Groenewegen as examples – will be starting this Tour with a similar sort of attitude as Cipollini used to.
Yes, sprinters have hauled themselves through the mountains because of the promise of Paris. We’ll see, they still have a chance in Paris and team management will be whispering this to them.
What about the Britons? Jake Stewart seems to be on form, is fast and copes with a hill quite allright I thought. Fred Wright is in a similar position. Do they stand a chance or are they too versatile (a.k.a just not fast enough either on the flat or the slopes) to focus on the Green?
Quite possibly answered your own question succinctly (sadly – I’d like to see Fred in the mix)!
Agreed, the risk is falling in between two objectives and the level is high. Lewis Askey was great on the roads of Dunkerque in May but it’s another thing to repeat in July.
I do think they’ll make perfect points-hunters material for fantasy TdF teams 🙂
Pogacar walking away from the Tour with the yellow, green and polka dot jerseys would be quite an achievement. Tadej is not shy of challenging himself, so.. you never know. 😉 Wonder if your leftish-field tip here might come in, interesting!
Without contesting the intermediate sprints, Pogi will not be able to win the Green Jersey.
I’ll be cheering for Girmay to be in form. I liked the way he won in 2024. It’ll be interesting to see how the yellow card system impacts things. I think if it had been in place in 2023 we might have had a different winner.