Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 8 Preview

The final stage and almost a summit finish. In the past this has been the most frantic stage of the week. Pogačar looks invincible but it’s wide open to win the stage.

Encore: the early breakaway of 15 riders was kept close, it never had more than two minutes. Romain Bardet lasted the longest, in large part to say adieu to his road racing career on a course where his wife and children were roadside and his father, from whom he got the passion for cycling, was waiting at the finish.

A third stage win for Tadej Pogačar. This time he had to stand on the pedals to attack, a good twenty pedal strokes to open up a gap on Jonas Vingegaard and Florian Lipowitz, with the German soon unable to follow the Dane. From here the race resembled a mountain time trial with the lead three on GC all riding solo. Pogačar eased up before the line allowing Vingegaard to halve his 30 second deficit at the flamme rouge, but all the more difficult for Vingegaard. He could see good power numbers, we could see a rare grimace and efforts but – while well ahead of all the rest – he just can’t get on terms with Pogačar.

After the finish Pogačar hinted it was unsporting of rivals to try an attack downhill after Visma-LAB accelerated over the top of the Croix-de-Fer. This seemed to have stung him into revenge; but his rivals must complain that it’s the uphill attacks that are unsporting.

We should note some of the other spots, Lipowitz the best of the rest, THJ in fourth place, ahead of Remco Evenepoel, for the Norwegian to bound up to fifth overall. Carlos Rodriguez doing his Dauphiné remontada which bodes well for the Tour, on his relative terms. Paul Seixas finished 11th.

The Route: a stage that rides up the Maurienne valley, a rare place that doesn’t get its name from its river (the Arc in case you need to know). The race treats the valley like a boarder in a halfpipe, swinging up the sides to avoid the main valley roads, notably with the climb of the “Col de Beaune”, which is actually the Col de Beau Plan, and featured in 2019 when Julian Alaphilippe won the stage finishing just below.

The Finish: Mont Cenis was turned into a main road by Napoleon and retains an engineered feel, it’s a steady climb, almost 10km at 6.5%. The route flattens for five kilometres out to finish by the lake on the Italian border.

The Contenders: a good day for the breakaway, today’s course is short but there’s room for a move to stick. Ben Healy (EF) has tried several times but seemed to shut things down if it wasn’t working, no point saving things today.

–
Pogačar, Van Gils, Buitrago, Healy
Barré, Traaen, Dunbar, Latour

Weather: sunshine and good chance of thunderstorms, 28°C in the valley early on.

TV: KM0 is at 13.25 and the finish is forecast for 17.15 CEST. The final two hours will be broadcast live.

69 thoughts on “Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 8 Preview”

  1. Thunderstorms? Hope not!
    I’m guessing a breakaway win – unless UAE want to make a point to Visma.

    Pogacar has stormed away when it mattered, with only the TT as the thing to work on. Otherwise, plenty to work on for the rest – what happened to Lenny Martinez? New team teething problems, or maybe he needs more carbs per hour.
    Visma team looked good until it really mattered, then … Lipowitz should get the third podium spot, which Remco has struggled to hold onto (he seems to never be on a par with climbing elite), and young Seixas has proved his promise.

    • Armchair analyst here, so I don’t know what Remco’s climbing ceiling is, but in some ways he reminds me of Pog pre-’24 — does not like heat, and is uncharacteristically aerodynamically sloppy. For a guy who is so clean and disciplined in the TTs, he’s a mess uphills: skinsuit unzipped, sunglasses in the helmet, body position open instead of compact. That could easily cost a minute or more on the long climbs. That might be due to heat in part, maybe heat training is in order. I don’t know if he’ll ever be one of the great climbers, but he’s already a very good one and ISTM still has a fair bit of room for improvement.

  2. Unsporting to attack on a downhill? Really? What am I missing here? They can attack whenever they want, not up to him to decide.

    • There is normally an “informal agreement” among the GC riders that if the GC group gets to the top of a climb together and there is another climb to come, they will ride the descent gently since that is safer. It is one of those informal agreements in cycling, like not attacking through the feed-zone, or letting people in an early crash get back-on. Or the GC leader signalling the end of break-formation by taking a nature break.

      • I’ve heard of the other informal arrangements you mention but not about riding the descent gently- learn something new every day.
        Makes no sense to me though, if one is capable at descending faster than anyone else, surely that is a skill to exploit as much as being a good climber is a skill to use to your advantage?

  4. I found Pog’s interview after he won a little uncharacteristically un-joyful, and a little whiny, for someone who is head and shoulders above his competition, and wins with such ease.
    I remember Pog attacking Jonas downhill a few times in the Tour, and so I assume he has done it to others in other races.
    A few commentators have mentioned that Pog “eased “ up in the last km, and I know he mentioned it himself. Or maybe he actually got tired – it has happened in the past.
    To me, comments like this are a little unfair to Jonas, and diminish his efforts.
    He finished 14 seconds behind Pog, let him have that, please

    • Agree.

      It probably happens to major sporting (and other) stars. The stress of years of pressure, not only in sporting sense, but also the need to control yourself in such a media-rich environment… he is less and less young and carefree and it tells. Life at the top is hard, you are alone there.

      I really like what I see of Vingegaard off-race, though. He seems humble and joyous and gracious to his rivals.

    • There is normally an “informal agreement” among the GC riders that if the GC group gets to the top of a climb together and there is another climb to come, they will ride fairly carefully down the descent. It does not apply of they are “racing” (similar to slowing after a crash etc to allow the in the incident to get back on).

      Pogi felt this informal rule applied in this case, and that Visma were taking unnecessary risks. Visma could legitimately claim they were riding hard to stop Sivakov (and others) getting back on. I think it is just a difference in interpretation of the race situation.

  5. Hopefully Pogacar will grow bored of his own dominance soon and consider a career change, find something that actually challenges him.

    • I have had my fingers crossed since the start of the Giro.
      His daughter telling him to wear mitts at the start and Bardet complying even though he doesn’t usually in the mountains was touching.

  7. “We should note some of the other spots, Lipowoitz the best of the best,…”

    Freudian slip?

    I mean I am a huge fan myself (as is the German media – in one piece it was not already seen as certain that he rides the TdF but also that he is not a domestique for Roglic but instead has a “joker” role) but I guess “best of the rest” was meant.

    Thank a lot for the daily previews, looking forward to the daily tour previews.

    • He’ll be a super domestique at the Tour with a good chance of becoming the leader!

      Sadly, it looks like Remco’s hopes of winning another grand tour are diminishing. He doesn’t quite have the legs to be up there with the very best climbers (despite all his work to change that) and there are a whole load of young riders coming through who are more than his equal in the mountains.

      • The other major factor for Remco has to be the loss of Landa after the Giro crash. We keep looking at groups with several Visma and UAT jerseys but just the single Quickstep one. Surely races like this have got to be bigger motivators to leave for Red Bull or Ineos than the paycheque?

        • I think so too. Everyone tries to improve their own chances but Evenepoel is obsessive about this. There’s misfortune but even at their strongest Quickstep don’t look able to dictate the racing in the way UAE and Visma can and that must grate.

      • I agree. Remco is an astonishing TT-er, and a great Classics rider but has never convinced at GTs – even the one he won. Maybe I’m wrong (obviously), but I wonder whether that third at last year’s Tour was his maximum

        • For next 3-4 years, seems plausible everyone will be racing for 3rd place, behind TP & JV.
          Isaac del Toro seems to be the next, young, up & coming super star.

      • I still think Remco can win the Giro or Vuelta if neither Jonas nor Pogi are there. He would not necessarily be the favourite but he would have a good chance.

        He might also win the Tour late in his career if Jonas and Pogi start declining at around 30, and Remco can keep going: he is younger than both. But I do agree that there are new riders coming through who look like they would be better climbers, so I do broadly agree with your comment.

      • It seems to me that Patrick Lefevre more or less retooled the entire Quikstep team a few years ago, to support Remco’s GT ambitions. Around the time they did their five-year contract. No more Wolfpack, no more focus on owning the spring classics.

        One wonders if PL hitched his wagon to the wrong horse! I do miss the old Quikstep. (Though, I would suppose that if they had retained the Wolfpack focus these last few years, they may have been stymied by MVDP and Tadej?)

    • Fixed, thanks. As you say he isn’t or wasn’t certain to do the Tour, we’ve read the same pieces, you’d think he now starts for positive and negative reasons, above all because he’s been so good this week, but also because the team need a good news story this summer and they’ve not had much this year.

  8. For all the writing off of Evenepoel, let’s not forget he had a very serious accident in December and missed a large chunk of his winter training, where the foundations for the season are laid, as a result.

    • All true but his coach said he was lighter and fitter, this didn’t help. Evenepoel gets such scrutiny, there are almost daily pieces about the titles he gives to a Strava ride, what colour frame he is riding, there are jobs transcribing his Instagram videos into newspaper articles etc… so when the coach makes declarations like this it raised expectations massively.

      • I’ve been impressed this week with how he handles that pressure – he’s very articulate & intelligent in interviews. Sure, he’s probably had some coaching in handling media, but for a young chap with the weight of a nation on his shoulders it’s quite something. It can’t be easy having your every move scrutinised like that.

  9. I was proved wrong on Remco, surely. I was expecting him to do much better going up hill this year, but he is not. Sad, as I was anticipating a more varied set of options for the Tour outcome.
    Jonas did good but was, again, overmatched. In Danish media he was quoted saying this was his best ride ever if going by the numbers. He expect to build slightly more towards the Tour hoping “slightly” to be enough to follow and beat TP. He has not surrendered.
    How does TP retain that level for so long??? It is very very impressive, though if he can hold it for 3 weeks is difficult to say. He has proven it before, but his spring this year was more intensive. A dip of form must be incoming at one point.

    • Could be he’s just better, even if not in top form. Should be fresh for the Tour, he’s not had that much racing this year really. He probably wears out his competition more than himself.

      • Absolutely, TP is quite remarkable and his intermediate level is what every other racer strives for just once in their carreer. He certainly looked extremely relaxed yesterday in the final 9 kms.

    • The end of the Tour is a long way away. I guess there is always the chance the Pogi fades in the last week of the Tour (even if I believe he probably won’t). This has to be the thing that Visma hope for.

  10. I think the background to Pogacar’s comments about the hard riding over the top of the Croix-de-Fer primarily relate to the importance of the race. All the GC teams want to get to the TDF in one piece. Compared to the TDF the Dauphiné is a small prize. A chance to tune up fitness in a race situation, and try out some team tactics. If you win, great, but it won’t be remembered for long. With this background, there is no need to push riders to their absolute limits. I take Pog’s comment as being directed to the team manager(s) and tactics not the riders on the road.

    • I have to admit even as a Pogacar fan I am surprised how much his level rose last year and seems to now exceed Jonas?

      Maybe Jonas will come good at the Tour, but every indication suggests Pog is a long way ahead now and without injury will be very tough to beat come July.

      I’m not suggesting anything untoward I’m only saying it’s a surprise how easily he’s able to distance the one rider who’s previously tested him currently.

      I guess many thought/knew/sensed that Pog had yet to train himself to his peak pre2024 and it seems to have proved to be the case, impressive what some heat and altitude training can do! Also his lack of team support cost him in 2022 and now it’s much harder to see similar happening once you factor in domestiques like Almeida, Yates, Del Toro and others in the coming years…

      It all makes sense but still to see it in action and see Jonas flailing is a surprise.

      The promise of a nail biting super close contest feels a long way off this summer without some mishaps for Pogacar.

      • Yeah, if it only had been Vingo having a bad day or two, it could be explained away but given that Vingo himself seemed to outrun the rest with ease (and if I understand correctly also claim he is in the form of his life), the results are even more depressing.

        But at least we got a good Giro. 😉

        BTW: there seem to be some really bad blood internally at UAE. Spanish rumours is that Ayuso is so fed up he will leave as soon as possible, and I heard that Bjerg and Jan Christen almost came to blows today. The pressure to dominate in the shadows of Pog may be too much for at least som of the team.

  15. Morte de Dieu! That must have been horrid. I hope you had some help clearing up, the kitchen must have looked like something from Blaze. When DH had a similar though much less serious injury, I kept finding blood spots for weeks afterwards. No wonder the investigators nearly always manage to find scene of the crime evidence.

    Please take care xx

  16. Enjoy the TdSuisse whilst you begin to recover and hope you’re back to full fitness ASAP! 🤞 As ever, thanks for all your great work.

  18. Remco has grown on me a lot this week and I think he handled adversity well. I saw some fan footage of the crash and it looked a lot worse than he made out, so I have no doubt that will have caused him issues and maybe cost him a podium.

    It would be really interesting to see an Indurain-era style route with a couple of 60km or 70km TTs thrown in. Could Remco take enough time to give him something to defend in the mountains? Probably not but I’d like to see that race.

    • Its a wonderful idea. And it seems that is almost the only thing that could open up the GC. But again – given that Pog could afford to throw around 50 sec to Remco in the TT, and still beat him with 4+ min overall in a week-long race it probably would make zero difference in the end.

    • I think the GTs should really be thinking about diversifying without adding a bunch of giant mountains that only a few people will factor on. I’ve generally been against races where time bonuses and TTs make all the difference, but honestly nothing could be worse than watching one person ride away from everyone and put the race to bed on one stage. Finestre was amazing not because Yates destroyed everyone, but because tactics ended up being so important (Yates was also super strong, to be fair). Long medium mountain days and long flat TTs put more riders in the mix than a 130km watts/kilo test. I know that TTTs are “unfair” to the weaker teams, but I really miss the days when a team like BMC could put together a monster TTT with the kinds of riders who don’t always feature in the later parts of GC stages. And Movistar had a great TTT in the Vuelta a couple of years ago, so it’s not always totally predictable either.

  20. Away on holiday and just catching up INNRNG. Thanks for everything in the blog and sorry to hear about the ‘kitchen incident’. Heal soon and well.

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