More Alps and the Mortirolo.
Gran Bretonico: a humdinger of day, the Alps delivering. It didn’t start out so exciting, it was pouring at the start and several riders crashed out. Josh Tarling slid out and was abruptly stopped by road furniture and this looked bad; Alessio Martinelli fell and wasn’t stopped and this looked worse as he plummeted into a ravine and need a mountain rescue crew to lift him out. Egan Bernal crashed, Richard Carapaz too, so did Primož Roglič and he was out of the race.
A big break was up the road and they got almost ten minutes. UAE weren’t in a hurry to chase and we’d later see why.
It was on the Santa Barbera climb that the Giro’s “fight for pink”, to reprise a now-abandoned phrase, got going and we got a brawl. Ineos and then EF set the pace and Juan Ayuso was dropped, in part because he slowed to change clothing but this wasn’t the place to do this but he was quickly distanced, “in crisis” reported Italian TV. Max Poole and Michael Storer tried a move but struggled to get clear. Bernal was distanced but he didn’t crack and paced himself back.
On the final climb Yannis Voisard led solo but was overhauled and XDS Astana tandem Lorenzo Fortunato and Christian Scaroni rode away with Fortunato gifting the stage to his team mate. We can count UCI points, but qualitatively with performances like this team belong in the World Tour.
Behind Simon Yates launched the attacks after a long pull from his team mate Wout van Aert. This shook things up, and for once Isaac del Toro was struggling to jump on every move. Richard Carapaz surged and when he’s at his best nobody can get on terms. Derek Gee paced his effort to keep Carapaz in sight at the finish, while Yates kept the pressure on Del Toro and the Mexican wilted. He’s still in pink but now with only 26 seconds on Yates and 31 on Carapaz, both will be keen to test him again. Carapaz can be forgiven for waking up this morning having had pink dreams.
Best of all the stage didn’t prise apart the overall classification, it reset it, it compressed it with Del Toro retaining a slender lead but he’s going to have a tough time now. Two contenders in Carapaz and Yates are within range, Gee is close too. Today could be a respite but Friday and Saturday’s long ascensions look set to further test the idea that Del Toro is amazing over 20 minutes but has rivals over longer durations.
The Route: 155km and 3,800m of vertical gain. It’s uphill from the start but nothing severe to Cles, home of former world champ Maurizio Fondriest and then onto the Passo Tonale. This is the harder side but it’s a relatively gentle 6% which is steady but sufficient to start softening things up.
After the descent to Ponte di Legno, then the valley road to the foot of the Mortirolo. This is the “easy” side via Monno but 12.6km at 7.5% so plenty.
The Finish: 40km off the Mortirolo and the valley road to Bormio. But the climb to Le Motte is tough, 3km at 8% and with some steeper parts. Then back into Bormio for a twisty finish in town including a left-right-left series inside the final 500m.
The Contenders: another day for the breakaway. EF and Visma-LAB will want to pressure Isaac del Toro but today doesn’t supply the best terrain, it’s almost better to let the Mexican stew in the lead and if he can make the finish he’s got a chance. Richard Carapaz (EF) could strike out today but he might prefer to watch and wait, and besides again EF don’t seem likely to mow down the breakaway.
For the breakaway a lottery, some usual suspects in Lorenzo Fortunato and Wout Poels (XDS-Astana) plus Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL). Rémy Rochas (Groupama-FDJ), along with Luke Plapp , Chris Harper and Paul Double (Jayco) seem like contenders. Lorenzo
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Poels, Rochas |
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Jayco, Del Toro, Fortunato, Bardet |
Weather: 22°C at most and an increasing chance of rain by the finish.
TV: KM0 is at 13.00, the Mortirolo begins around 15.15pm and the finish is forecast for 17.15 CEST.
Postcard from Bormio
Why Bormio? Why not, but it’s the host of the downhill skiing events for the Milano Cortina winter Olympics in 2026. Presumably a few crumbs of the Olympic budget have been brushed towards the Giro. And it’s working if you’re reading this and associating Bormio with Olympic skiing.
Could cycle-cross appear in the winter games? It hasn’t, largely because of the basic rule that stipulates the games have to take place on snow or ice. But CX can take place in snow or ice rather than the mud of a municipal park in Belgium. Two winters ago we saw a round of the World Cup go to Val di Sole, a ski resort.
Just because it can happen on snow doesn’t mean it qualifies. The International Olympic Committee is open to new events but CX is limited to a few countries – read Belgium and the Netherlands – and not target markets, especially as the Dutch are glued to speed skating already. The IOC really wants to find Indian and Chinese fans.
The big driving force here is the UCI itself. It’s cycling’s governing body to promote the sport but crucially it gets the bulk of its funding from two sources: the road worlds and the summer Olympics. Add the winter Olympics and it’s not quite a third leg of a stool but it’s extra, and significant so you can see why the UCI is incentivised and more.
The good news today is that Bormio won’t have a snowflake or ice crystal within range of the finish line.
Pellizzari was the revelation to me … he looked right at home on that last climb.
As IR suggests, Del Toro must feel it’s over now. A young rider weakening after sixteen stages of hard racing in difficult weather is no surprise and with intimidating stages to come. The podium looks like Carapaz, Gee and Yates in that order – or more surprises to come?
A stage for Bardet would delight his team and please much of France. Me too.
Still got my fingers crossed for a Bardet win (and I’m not French). I reckon you’ve got the right podium but slightly wrong order – Yates 2nd and Gee 3rd.
Any news on Ayuso?
Surely he had to be ill or something?
He’s had a few crashes and has a quite deep cut on his knee/ankle that keeps re-opening. Sounds super uncomfortable and understandably knocks of few % off your abilities.
Yes, probably the knee injury. With hindsight he’s been always a few wheels back and slow to move on things, probably sore. It’s too early to look ahead probably… but remember a Giro or Tour that goes wrong can be salvaged at the Vuelta, only he’s got Pogačar to ride for. They could be joint leaders etc but the team is often built around Pogačar when he shows up.
This is turning into a very entertaining Giro. Its almost a shame there isn’t another week! Yesterday’s stage was UAE’s worst nightmare, it confirming Del Toro’s greenness and Ayuso’s lack of form. Carapaz looks the form horse now if he can prevent an off day, with Gee and Yates not far behind. Pellizzari looks like he’ll be moving up too now he’s free of shepherding duty. Caruso is doing his usual thing of working his way up the GC without anyone noticing.
Its worth noting that with Caruso and Tiberi there or thereabouts, Pellizzari on the move, Ciccone looking sharp until taken out and Fortunato uncontested in the mountains jersey this has already been a pretty good Giro for Italy. Without Ganna and Milan there to dominate their fields too.
Re: the UAE nightmare. How prepared and invested in this Giro are their super domestiques?
Del Toro isolated far too early today. Are they warming up for Pogi and the TdF? Or will Vingo and Visma be seeing opportunities to similarly isolate Pogi in July
Matxin was clearly determined to go all in for Ayuso, and the guys looked to be starting on a good form. Then apparently it still is not “miracle form” as seen in other teams in the past. Which might affect the TDF, in a way or another, although Pogi looks like a bit less conditioned by his team’s performance. In a tight competition, the team’s weight does matter, anyway.
Add to the above poor tactics (a classic I always counted on, as written here multiple times) and, as I also had commented recently, the mere fact that some athletes are better in doing their gregario work if needed, no matter for whom and to what ends, while others lose more easily personal investment, be it only at a subconscious level.
It’s turning out to be a decent giro for Italy, yesterday was the first Italian stage win I think. Until this week it felt very slim pickings
I think Del Toro will loose the jersey already today, the stage is hard enough if the other contenders want to put pressure on him.
And I think they’ll want to go hard and test his weakness, even if it’s not the perfect stage to do it, especially as Carapaz is a racer – he won’t cross the finish line wondering.
I agree with this. My feeling is a large break will be let go, then later perhaps a ‘GC’ selection will be forced on the Motirolo. Yates is also a racer, and there are riders sniffing a podium or good top 10 that will be motivated today and for the rest of the week.
Not least the Picnic riders – be nice to see Bardet and Poole try something together if the action develops later in the race.
What a stage.
I had a feeling Del Toro was under pressure on the Santa Barbera climb but he’s quite hard to read. The mountains never lie.
You’ve got to love Carapaz. The guy embodies panache. Pellizzari’s star contune to rise.
The carnage in this Giro has been hard to watch but it’s the most fascinating Grand Tour from a competition perspective in quite some time.
The best GT stage for a while certainly since Jonas Vinegegaard won on the Granon (shame about the crashes). Its shaping up to be the best GT for a good while. Isaac del Toro isnt out of it yet but how much did yesterday take out of him? Will Juan Ayuso now take up domestique duties (and where does that leave him in the UAE hierarchy)? Will there be redemption for Simon Yates on the Finestre? Richard Carapaz looks like the favourite to me but the Fedaia must be in the back of his mind. Egan Bernal was impressive, missing the last little bit needed to win GTs again but he finished in front of the pink jersey despite crashing and being dropped a couple of times, is a tilt at the Veulta on the cards?
Today has a feeling of anti climax but hope not.
Just a thought – Finestre redemption for Yates isn’t accurate. He’d fallen apart long before the climb.
True but the Moto images of him struggling terribly on it were agonising, iconic and ingrained in the memory
JC,
What is the Fedaia?
Bernal is certainly travelling in the right direction. Ineos did suffer some heavy blow yesterday: Rivera out, Tarling out, Arensman scrapped his knee and would likely be hobbled.
To really move forward, Bernal would need to ride much smarter than he has been so far. On the other hand, he could subscribe to the altitude of go break or go home and treat the rest of the Giro as a training camp to test himself. Either way, things look good for Vuelta.
Although a generational talent. Not having Pog in this race (or even Vin) makes it so much more exciting and open as the gaps between the riders in terms of talent are narrow. Keeping the GC more inclusive.
How much can you really read into del Toro’s bad day after a rest day?
That said, I’d love to see Carapaz win it all. Ever since he rode away to win in ’19 (was it?) I’ve rooted for him.
I’m not sure you can call it a bad day?
We don’t yet know what kind of rider he is, whether he is a true climber or more of a WVA engine – so yesterday could’ve actually been a very good day for him?
As INRNG mentioned the thinking is his 20min climbing power is amazing but his 40min less so, that could be age, but it could also be body type and he’ll always be a Pidcock, Kwiatowski etc type rider…
My impression of yesterday (despite enjoying) was that the level at this Giro is quite low?
Without a firing Roglic or Ayuso (who’s yet to prove himself) it may be a very exciting race but both Carapaz and Simon Yates are far below the best GC riders so I guess it’s up to audiences to decide – do you prefer seeing a race of also rans or a clash of the titans which may dissolve into a walkover?
I genuinely don’t know, and am enjoying this Giro but if Carapaz now ascends to win (even though I like him) it’ll be hard to truly feel this was great race and worthy of three weeks dedicated watching?
It feels normal that there are some riders in every generation above others but the distance between Pog/Vin and even Remco then everyone is gargantuan…
My thoughts are similar to this which is why I tend to look for the emerging riders. Obviously this includes Del Toro but now also Pellizzari.
Doesn’t look like Del Toro is a pure climber but has the ability to gain time in other terrain. Will be interested to see what happens tonight.
Interesting observation. Yates’ & Carapaz’s previous grand tour wins, and the fact that they’ve already dispatched of the two pre-race favourites – one a multiple grand tour winner, and the other the Next Big Thing – are indeed clear indications of their utter mediocrity. Hard to understand why they even take part in the sport tbh…
Interestingly, Wout Van Aert, who must be woefully out of form to be struggling against such a low-level field of riders, posted some power data on Instagram a few days ago – he hit a new 10min power pb, of 518 watts. What an absolute club rider!
Sorry – you are right to point this out.
I went overboard and hopefully you have/can see from my previous comments that I laud and enjoy riders of all levels – I’m well aware both Yates and Carapaz are exceptional and shouldn’t have commented so disparagingly.
The actual reason I made this comment – **and should’ve explained further** – was a recent comment from Gabriele that he feels this is a weak era of GC rider. This has been playing on my mind as I find it very hard to gauge whether it’s true or not…
Is this a weak era?
or is it just there are two stand outs?
or is it the same as every era that there’s standouts?
It was watching this Giro yesterday that I started to come around to Gabriele’s point… just thinking of both Carapaz and Yates regularly being left in the dust by Pog and Vin and even before by riders from the previous generation like Froome and Dumoulin…
But things aren’t really that clear cut… because –
Adam Yates TDF podium in ’23 was probably reached with higher numbers than either Froome or Dumoulin ever achieved. And Bernal raced on a level with those riders in ’19 and is now far behind Carapaz, Yates – even if this may be more down to his crash than the ascension of those riders.
So really we can never know, and maybe I’ve come around to disagreeing with Gabriele again!!
Either way – your point still stands – I shouldn’t have been so emphatic as the riders at the top here are outstanding and shouldn’t be forever compared to Pog/Vin.
The level of GC athletes is not measured by w/kg figures because those depend a lot on historical context.
Figures are (moderately) useful to compare a set of athletes within a reduced number of seasons.
Same for sprinting, not just peak watts.
This is the big confusion about cycling as a mere powermetre competition.
For example, a great GC athlete is consistent both within a race and through the seasons.
Or finds a creative away to put pressure on rivals – be them even stronger – picking their weak points and his/her own strong ones, then choosing terrain and trying to shape accordingly the distribution of efforts. But at the same time keeping difference low on unfavourable terrain (solid defence).
Then you need to be able to perform athletically at top level, of course, but that’s just part of the equation. Otherwise it’s like saying the best basketball players are just the tallest and who jump highest (extreme example). Partly true? Yes, but very partly so.
Carapaz is IMHO among the best we’ve seen in the last handful of seasons. What he’s lacking is consistency, especially through the season (including recovery and training periods…) and through seasons (partly as a consequence). Bernal is a great racer but he’s been having issues on the athletical side for obvious reasons. You can check yourself the Yates against the above, or Landa (great cyclist anyway), or R. Porte, Enric Mas (pfff), the Dutch (better as gregari indeed), who else? Pello? Gaudu? Meintjes? Gall? Dani Felipe? Buchmann? H. Carthy?
…My hopes are rather about still young athletes like Almeida or Jorgenson (or Remco, though all those craahes…) being able to grow along a traditional curve, as, after all, Vingo and Pogi did.
I’m a bit on the fence with this?
Not sure I completely agree – but that may be because we’re starting from an unknowable premise: ‘is this a weak era for GC riders’ *(as you said the other week). Similar to how we can’t compare Merckx with Pogacar, I’m not sure we can compare either riders from today with riders from 2015, nor even the same riders who’ve raced both eras and been forced to develop to keep up with the new blood…
But in a weaker moment yesterday I succumbed to agree… and have now seen the light thanks to Davesta and have revised my opinion!
Although I agree with you that consistency has been Carapaz’ issue, even if I also think at his best he can’t compete with P/V. I also likewise look to Almeida and Jorgenson, and also Remco to see if they can crash the Slovenian/Norwegian party in the coming years. I like that you highlight Almeida as I feel like some have yet to realise quite how good he is.
I disagree that Pog grew along a traditional curve though?
I assume your argument is he got better at 26 and that he was working from a higher baseline than others, but still his early results are way off a traditional curve.
Part of me also disagrees as to whether this is a sport based around numbers or not – because for our fandom it’s better to believe there’s more mystical forces at play and there are always hidden factors but there is also a brutal truth that you cannot win certain races without being able to do certain numbers for a specific period of time? Yesterday’s INRNG article clearly stated Del Toro’s 40min output may not be what his 20min output is and we saw plain as day that prediction come to fruition. You watch Zwift Academy and it’s made abundantly clear what numbers they consider each level of professional needs to hit to be either a winner or a domestique or something else. Human factors still exist like nerves, bike handling, crashes etc which is why we watch – but when it comes down to it, if you hear current riders talking about Pogacar, they talk about his numbers, that’s the headline, they know his bike handling and mentality help, but the numbers is what gets them because they know this is a w/kj sport and that’s fairly unavoidable however much is nice to believe in its folkloric charm?
You can win a race with great tactics, great bike handling, avoiding crashes – but you can’t even be at the start line if you cannot do X amount of Watts for X amount time: it is the fundamental factor however mechanical it sounds.
@oldDAVE I must notice you failed to grasp several point including examples, so I’ll leave it here, no offence intended of course! Thanks anyway for your time and interest.
Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit, but you took my reply in good humour, and with honest reflection, and that’s to your credit, fellow Dave!
Avoiding any sarcasm in this reply, it’s an interesting point you raise – my sense is that every era (if indeed you can define a period of say 3-5 years as an era) seems to have a standout GC rider, whether that’s Indurain, or Armstrong, or Contador, or Froome, or Pogacar / Vingegaard…
What I find particularly remarkable about that, is that there are so many factors – achieving peak form, avoiding illness & mechanicals & other bad luck, riding & performing consistently for 21 days in a row etc – that go into winning a Grand Tour, that anybody is able to repeat Grand Tour success with any regularity!
There’s obviously some secret formula (both a set of skills, and an ability to reach peak performance at exactly the right time) that the top guys are able to follow, otherwise we wouldn’t see them repeat their successes time and again…Roglic is an interesting case study in this though, where he’s performed & succeeded with such consistency in the Vuelta, but has been largely unable to replicate this in the Giro and Tour. I wonder why?
As Gabriele notes below, Carapaz is a phenomenal rider when he performs, as are both of the Yates brothers, as is Bernal (albeit surely still half a step below what he was in ~2019 because of his injuries), as is Landa etc…but for whatever reason they lack the consistency and repeatability of the standout guys like Pogacar & Vingegaard…so in that sense, I do think this Giro is on a level that, whilst not comparable to Pog vs Ving (because, let’s face it, they are on another level), is up there with the top battles we’ve seen in other grand tours or the fights for the podium behind the standout riders. And for me that makes it hugely enjoyable, and pleasingly unpredictable – in that sense, it reminds me of the 2019 TdF, which I enjoyed immensely!
Reportedly (I don’trust those generic internet sources who get enthusiast with whatever you assume you can “calculate” while at the same time losing perspective on, say, how a stage was raced, how much altitude gain had you had before, the weather etc.), you’re pretty much right… although not completely, from my POV.
Nobody can come even close to the figures produced by Pogi, Vingo and Remco last TDF. At the same time, Pellizzari’s final climb would have placed him at some 4th place on PDB 2024 (I read 6.3w/kg for 44 minutes, a lot of that alone), so the level is “high”. Carapaz figures (in this case official ones of his Wahoo from the Castelnovo stage) are equally good, especially on 10 and 20 minutes. Yesterday were good but not exceptional (6.2 w/kg for 44 minutes), more like a 4th or 5th place with A. Yates and Almeida TDF version, consistent with his values last TDF when he entered full form or even better. Worth a final 4th to 6th in GC at TDF 2024.
That said, this Giro figures are also consistent or even slightly improved when compared to Carapaz’ last week in 2021, when he kept the wheels of Pogi and Vingo.
Also note that Pogi’s figures on, say, Prati di Tivo (35′) at the Giro 2024 were similar to Carapaz’ yesterday. Foscagno too, but you must necessarily consider high altitude, so that was really worth more.
(Of course Pellizzari wasn’t this good last year, which is pretty much logical. And I doubt he’ll keep this level given the sheer quantity of hard work on unfavourable terrain he’s been swallowing for 2 full weeks as a one-man-team-of-gregari.)
In case we imagine them (their version *yesterday*) travelling in time to Giro 2024, current figures would have allowed Carapaz and Pellizzari (as seen yesterday) to keep way closer to Pogi than anyone, probably keep wheels for a long long time on most hard stages. But the whole dynamic would have changed, Pogi maybe would have had to leave aside training on 2-3 occasions. And, as I said, I’m not sure they’ll stay as consistent.
OTOH, Pellizzari got to the third week of this Giro under very peculiar circumstances. He worked a lot, but perhaps many times to stay with Rogla he could avoid those 110% moments. Hard to account for all that.
And another huge fail in most common w/kg calculation if they intend to evaluate performance: they don’t consider the huge impact of having to attack. Climbing at a steady pace, even extremely high, is immensely more efficient than putting in a brutal dig as Carapaz does then resisting all the way up. Gee and Carapaz end up with similar w/kg (a little better in Carapaz’ case) but the former’s performance, as good as it was – one or two step above what you showed at last TDF – was worth a bit less because it was more efficient, as he didn’t have to manage those power spikes.
I usually love numbers, but maybe that’s also the reason why I feel they’re a modest proxy for a more comprehensive analysis.
So, it’s the dilemma many have sketched out. If you have Pogi or Vingo, nobody is at their level. Not even close. And I mean Pogi or Vingo 2022-2024 (Classics don’t work to evaluate the same aspects, although, well…). No competition. Enjoy the Bolt show, as Fra said, which I greatly do. And thankfully we got two of them so we can have a couple of week of tension, at least.
Remco is still a bit of a strange object, extreme lack of consistence. He’d have lost his only GT if he had to face current Giro level, but how can you compare that to last TDF? Nobody else could ever come close to the figures he put out then. Was that forever and always? Did the crash spoil that step up?
But the level of the rest is very high, they also notched up big time. And they went into this Giro with what for now looks excellent form. They’d give Pogi 2021 a hard run for that yellow jersey, not to speak of Vingo (again, pure theory on a single day, i.e. just speaking of *abstract* level as you’ve asked, will these guys keep it?). So, well, as “humans” or better said as “champions” they’re putting in great results who’d have, for example, brought to commanding performances in the 10s. Rogla would have lost his Giro and one of two of his Vueltas against this *abstract* level of performance, if you should (not really correctly) extrapolate.
What can you do with the above? Dunno. In this decade I enjoyed a lot Giro 2021, 2024 (and Giro 2020, too,wasn’t it for the first couple of often boring weeks), Giro 2025 for now, TDF 2022, 2023, 2024 (not 2021 and 2020)… and several Vueltas too.
So in my case it’s hard to find a clear pattern.
If you ask Mig, Ryan Felt, Other Craig and many others, you’ll get very different answers…
By the way, didn’t understand at all your possible comparison between WVA and Del Toro… (2nd sentence above)
I´d be interested to see your list of the GC riders that are clearly above the top competitors in this Giro.
Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel are, of course, on everyone´s list, but surely their absence doesn´t turn this Giro or, indeed, any race into a race of also rans?
In my opinion one could look at the start list of any GT in recent years and find that names of riders who would have been podium or at least Top 5 candidates were missing.
Watching Evenepoel tackling Finestre and bleeding time to the likes of Carapaz would be interesting.
Is he even a dominant GT rider material (yet)? I am not so sure he should be able to regularly beat the likes of Carapaz and Yates, especially considering the amount of TT kms and the demanding climbs of contemporary GTs.
I am to be corrected, probably. 🙂
The riders completing for the Maglia Rosa this week are in the very top 99.9% of bike racing population. The top 10 of a grand tour race is very much rarefied company. There exploits on a bike are amazing in the context of even a avid recreational cyclist/racer. Carapaz has a Giro, Olympic Road Race, Tour de Suisse, TdF KoM, stages wins etc.. Yates has a Vuelta, and multiple GC stage race wins and podiums; they are no amateurs. Sure what has Derek Gee in his palmarès? Not so many prizes, but you need to start somewhere? They are riders who have dedicated the majority of their years to exploit their natural talents to reach this level. OK they are not Pogacar, but then who else is!? If the same view was taken with football you’d be watching Barcelona vs Real Madrid every weekend which would soon become boring. The excitement this week is seeing these riders take the spot light and see some genuinely high quality competitive and entertaining racing.
You have that the wrong way around. I’m nearly in the top 99.9% of the bike racing population, and I’m a 50-something mostly recreational cyclist. You must mean the top 0.1%.
But I agree with your broader point. These guys are at a very high standard and it’s been an interesting, unpredictable, at times dare I say exciting Giro. A real race too, which most events featuring Pogacar aren’t, unless you count the contest for second place.
Thank you for looking past my basic statistical error!
Top 99.9% of recreational cyclists (i.e., the kind who might put their rides on strava), or top 99.9% of cyclists who engage in competitive racing? Cause the latter category is a slim fraction (less than 1%??) of the former category. To be in the top 99.9% of all racing cyclists would be quite an achievement, and to be there into the 50s, wow. 😉
Actually it’s the 0.001 % who have the to potential to become world class athletes (in any sport) or to put it in another less statistical/mathematical way: Out of one million people only ten have the genetic ability to get to the top of the world!
I would add to these points, the age old cliche that ‘you can only beat those people that turn up’…
Pogacar & Vingegaard chose not to participate in this race. Equally, there’s approximately 7 billion people who choose not to race a bike competitively, but we don’t diminish Pogacar & Vingegaard’s wins because there may be some undiscovered talent somewhere in the world that could have beaten even them.
That’s a crass point perhaps, but it highlights that even those that prefer to see Pog & Vinge participate, judge a race on its own merits (rather than engage in hypothetical comparisons) when those two are there. I personally like to do the same when those two are absent.
Obviously this logic has its limits in terms of entertainment value – I won’t follow my local cat 3/4 road race with quite the same level of interest!
But the guys in this Giro are producing some great ciclismo, and I hope there’s a few more days of it to come…
In this forum we’ve had similar previous discussions about the differences in what fans enjoy in a bike race: is it an absolute level of athletic performance (e.g. Pogi attacking >50km and putting the competition to bed)? Or is it finely balanced competition and complex strategy?
My vote is firmly for the latter: I love how inter- and intra-team dynamics interact with the parcours and the weather to produce unpredictable outcomes (particularly when the racing goes down to the wire). I don’t care if “Pogi would have won if he were here”: this year’s contest is infinitely preferable to Pogi’s 2024 dominance. And as others have noted, Carapaz, Yates et al are hardly also-rans!
The ability to survive is also, always, key to GC success. Nibali may not have won the 2014 TdF had Contador and Froome not crashed out. But they did, and he did. Sometimes it can diminish the spectacle if crashes eliminate all of other contenders, but at least in this Giro we still have a beautifully poised GC battle with only several days to go. I can’t wait to see what happens…
This is a lot more fun!
One chainring for Jayco? Presumably that should be Plapp?
Three Jayco possibles have been consolidated into one.
Yes, just open to many riders and including from them. XDS Astana too. Lild-Trek with Verona and Konrad maybe as well.
As I wrote many times before, only races without Pogacar are worth watching. Brilliant stage and Friday and Saturday look very promising.
Roubaix, San Remo, The “Beer” Classic in Limburg…?
Were races with Usain Bolt (and similar dominant athletes) worth watching back then?
I enjoyed watching Usain Bolt, but only for that minute or so the whole performance would take. Some of the Pog races this year has been great – MSR, PR, Amstel and even Flanders – but others such as Giro and Tour and Worlds last year and the two latest Strade B not so much. Actually immensely boring. If you with 99% certainty know who will win, pro-cycling is not that exiting. At least not enough to set away hours to watch it.
To repeat myself: I understand and appreciate that some find it fascinating and enjoyable to watch the pre-predicted rider win by a pre-predicted 5 min margin, but I really don’t think it works the way – say – it works for the Usain-bolt type sports.
We may miss the some of the top competitors in this Giro, but the race has been absolutely magnificent, and I would guess that the casual viewer who happens to follow it this year, will come away much more enthralled than those who watched the yawning Giro and Tour last year.
Get your point, but it’s quite daring to say that anybody knew in advance “with 99% certainty” how the TDF or the Worlds would end up, even less so during *the most part* of those races themselves.
Fans or “antifans” might have expressed fears & desires in the form of extreme predictions which in hindsight proved right (or wrong), but if you read expert analysis all around, plus observe team decisions by other riders and DSs, consistent with explicit declarations, it’s pretty obvious that until PDB the TDF looked very uncertain. Many even expressed the idea that Vingo was actually favourite.
When things changed, you *only had 6 stages left* (with an open, passionate fight for 2nd place and stages, by the way – but we can leave that aside).
If the parametre is the one you expressed above, it doesn’t stand against the TDF reality. If you were disappointed by the actual outcome, that’s a different matter, but that specific race doesn’t comply with your description for its greatest part. And if you dismiss a GT because 6 stages weren’t worth watching, well, you got a long list without Pogi – a longer one, probably.
As for the Worlds, we shouldn’t apply hindsight, either. Pogi being so superior to Remco on a Classic like open terrain (uhmm, as seen at Amstel this year, yeah) wasn’t really a fact as it looks now, although Pogi was top fav. MvdP was considered a possible top outsider (and actually podiumed). It was a strange race, Mads Pedersen 13th, and the likes if Skujins or Q. Simmons in top ten. Not as much as a Liège as rather a hybrid thing, Brabantse, Amstel. It was not obvious in advance, but interestingly *less so during the race* (which makes it more worthy even). Remco and Mathieu thought they just won when Pogi went, and he felt he’d been too daring and “shot in his own foot”. Then the rest made several mistakes (the way Belgium chased, then how survivors dis-organised – all due to DSs and riders failing to make accurate predictions on the events), which anyway you couldn’t know in advance, just as things looked open again when Pogi faltered a little.
I’ll just quote somebody with a keen eye for cycling: “Tadej Pogačar attacks with over 100km. The winning moment? Yes, but this time with hindsight as for some time the result was uncertain. It made for a gripping race especially with the chase behind and the battle for the lower steps of the podium.”
(In the PCS game with several thousands of players, as many put Remco and Pogi in their list, 1.8K pickers each. Out of the top 5 picks Pogi gets barely 50% of stars, Remco 22%, MvdP 14%… a clear fav, yet far from a clear-cut prediction. Heads or tails. And that was before the race, becoming less clear even when it happened)
I agree 100% with you on Strade and last Giro (that is, I still liked them, but your personal point stands), and you could easily add a couple of Lombardia or three, and an Amstel (evidently not last one…) or a couple of Lièges and more. But including the 2024 TDF and the Worlds when you had more evident examples to make your point suggests that what creates the impact seems the emotional reaction to the eventual outcome, rather than the actual development (or predictability) of the race as such.
Of course the “99%” is to paint it very black and white. But you get my point. Pro-cyclings biggest (IMHO) attraction is the close and unpredictable nature of the race. And there is a very fine line between having some top-dogs dominating the show while the race still maintains the dynamics, and having 1-2 of them dominating to an extend that they enter most races as favourites and fullfill that predicition. And I’m not saying it is something that should be – or could be – fixed. Its the nature of cycling.
My point is more that I enjoy sports and I enjoy seeing the greatest within each sport perform at their top. But also that this comes second to the dynamics and sheer exitement of a close contest. Regardless of which sport. And if I want to introduce anyone to why I think pro-cycling is the king of the hill in human endurance, I would much rather have them watch this years Giro than (probably) anything Pog has been racing in the last couple of years. Yes, he may the GOAT but the races will be much more about him, than about the nuts and bolts of cycling. Just as watching Nadal demolish a first-round opponent in French Open some years back was “interesting” and impressive, but more about his capacity than what top tennis could be. Which is also why, even as one of Rafa’s absolute fans, I was always more into him fighting with the skin of his teeth in a hard-court match, than the walkovers on clay. And I think that for the average “casual viewer” if you want, that would also be the case.
I do understand the fascination of the star performers. But how many of those that would sit through a 1 minute Usain Bolt stunt, would – in the end – sit through a 5 hours Pog stunt? Which is my whole point. Athletics can “sell” on their top performers and the dynamics as the background. Pro-cycling has to sell on the dynamics of racing and the individual performers as the background.
It may be a bit convoluted but I hope you get the beef. 🙂
I agree that you can’t compare road racing to Usain Bolt-type sports, because the latter don’t have anything like the same degree of strategy and complexity. For those I would include most athletics (track and field) events (except running races of 800m or above, which are very strategic), swimming, weightlifting, or anything else in which participants are seeking to achieve ultimate athletic performances: the audience wants to see the fastest/strongest/highest. I guess much of track cycling could also fit this category. In these cases, if a standout athlete is not participating, you know you the fans are likely not going to get what they came for.
I appreciate witnessing Pogi/Vin/Remco (etc) put in an all-time impressive performance, especially when it combines with strategy and uncertainty of outcome (e.g. Worlds 2024). But much less so if this puts the contest to bed long before the finish (e.g. Giro or Strade 2024, etc).
+1
Taking advantage of this post to notice that Mig put a +1 to a good Worlds 2024 appreciation 😉
I also like top performances in cycling as they belong to the building up of a palmarés and are part of a more general historical perspective. The full evaluation if what an athlete achieves in cycling is often a whole career, not the single event or gesture, but these latter do give meaning and solidity to the whole.
But this is all very personal and theoretical.
What I care about more is not getting confused by hindsight about what a race *actually was like*… predictable? Void of any strategy and dynamics?
This just doesn’t apply to TDF 2024 or Worlds, while it sure does with other races won by Pogi. This is my issue with Mig’s analysis.
That said, Pogi had 8 race this season for now, 4 have been made immensely more interesting thanks to him, his qualities and and his racing style (Sanremo, RVV, Roubaix, Amstel). Hadn’t Pogi been there, they’d all have been more predictable and one-way, less strategic even.
2 were clearly worse, Strade and Liège.
Finally, various factors got on par, IMHO, at UAE and Flèche (races which normally won’t get much better, so having Pogi adds interest anyway – and the Flèche for some reason doesn’t appear to have been extremely predictable beforehand, either, as a decent number of people also saw some side options for Remco, Skjelmose or Pidcock).
No
That is a great picture (the pink jersey with head bowed). Chapeau to whoever captured it, and Mr Ring for picking it.
No name for the photographer, just from the RCS supply. There were a few of this moment but one with the head down. Another was good with his head up looking at the gap growing, a pained face (here)
Cycling as a long-distance sport refuses to die, in the face of those who want it to be a middle-distance sport. Mezzofondo vs gran fondo.
Stage 16 justified the TV from km 0 as a drama filled day – both big pre-race GC favourites out of the GC reckoning, the “next big hope” struggling and a couple of guys with a previous Giro nightmare look to make good.
Pellizzari has been let off the leash so it’ll be interesting to see if he can take advantage of his opportunity. Lots of guys looking for something in the last chance saloon so if UAE take it “tranquilo” and the GC guys take a day off to recover, then the break should take it. If Del Toro starts to suffer though, it’ll be who has some energy left from yesterday to “carpe diem”!
Enjoying the postcards. Is the Mortirolo going up the Contador road?
Eventually no
Agreed. The road was resurfaced weeks ago with plans to tackle it and there were graphics on the race website marked with the turn onto it… but no longer. Another day presumably.
And the RAI preview had included it ROTFL (they had to broadcast it all the same because it’s sponsored)…
Wow this is getting really exciting now!!!
It is indeed. Almost three weeks proof that the absence of the world’s top three riders doesn’t prevent a thrilling race – maybe their absence enables the it. More thrills to come I think. Despite today’s show my final podium is still Carapaz, Gee & Yates in that order.
It feels completely up in the air to me. I seriously wouldn’t count Pellizzari out of a chance at a podium place. I expect riders to absolutely blow up on stages 19 and 20, it’s just a question of who. There is also still a chance that someone will get away a la Froome and take minutes off of the entire peloton. Loving it!
Fun fact.
What does mass public like best, a Pogi show or a serious catfight among a good set of good athletes?
In Italy, apparently… both, equally. The Sunday mountain stage 15 in 2024 got essentially the same exact viewing figures as the Sunday mountain stage in 2025. Same for the Tuesday working day mountain stage!
2.15 M and ~20% share on Sunday
2 M and ~25% share on Tuesday
Considering that national athletes competing high in GC are a scientifically proven (seriously) boosting factor, these are very fine figures.
Before you say “ok, Italians always watch the Giro all the same”, well, no, the viewing figures in 2023 we not this good (less share on the weekend and both data being quite lower on Tuesday). 2023 began better than 2025 but then went on a downward curve at the end of the 2nd week and from then on. 2024 started better than 2025 and kept a slow growing curve while 2025 grew faster. I hope that Finestre will equal or beat the excellent figures produced by Pogi’s Grappa.