Stopped by the side of the road, Tadej Pogačar tries to get his chain back in place after a crash, leaving Mathieu van der Poel to ride away. This wasn’t the precise winning moment as Pogačar could still hope to catch his arch rival… but he never did. Once again the two riders dominated a race, while misfortune seemed reserved for others.
Overnight rain had plenty of starters nervous of the wet cobbles ahead. Jonas Abrahamsen was the first to attack but the peloton was raging at 60-65km/h as riders tried to break away. A move of eight went with Jasper De Buyst (Lotto), Kim Heiduk (Ineos), Markus Hoelgaard (Uno-X), Oier Lazkano (Red Bull), Jonas Rutsch (Intermarché-Wanty), Abram Stockman (Tietma), Rory Townsend (Q36.5) and Max Walker (EF).
Arkéa-B&B missed it and chased, given they won’t going to win they at least needed a rider up front but the team was weaker than the break. Then Tadej Pogačar came to the front en patron and the breakaway was validated. But they were only allowed three minutes.
As the bunch approached Troisvilles for the start of the cobbles a crash saw many fall, including Wout van Aert, and Jaspers Philipsen and Stuyven. This began Paris-Roubaix as an elimination race, as one by one riders were being undone. Positioning only counted for so much and it was “devil take the foremost” at times too. Just as Ineos surged to the front on the first pavé their leader Ganna punctured and he’d spend the rest of the day chasing.
Haveluy to Wallers is the section before Arenberg, still over 100km to go but like last year it was a determinant sector. Mads Pedersen attacked, then Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar came past him. Once on the tarmac Pogačar stood up on the pedals to add some more damage.
Arenberg was next. Pogačar took the lead and Van Aert tried to follow but seemingly the effort to follow cost him as he started to lose ground. Van der Poel came then took the lead, slaloming perilously past riders from the early breakaway like they were bollards. Nils Politt punctured here and that was the last Pogačar would see of his team mates.
Once out of the forest Van der Poel looked around then attacked but was caught. Then just as a group with Van Aert made it across Van der Poel attacked again, surging from a long way back in the group and opening a gap. Pogačar followed, so far so normal but he looked to be on the limit, grimacing and contorting himself into as low as position as possible and it took time to close the gap. Only Philipsen, Pedersen and Stefan Bissegger could follow.
This quartet though only lasted so long. As Pedersen rode in the rough on the side of the cobbles he punctured. Then Bissegger did too and they were down to three.
Philipsen had been distanced on these cobbles but rejoined Van der Poel and Pogačar, in the moment he seemed to be floating. The world champion was chaperoned by two faster sprinters, he couldn’t afford to reach the velodrome with them. FranceTV’s moto reporter Thomas Voeckler, a man who knows a thing or two about economy in a breakaway, was admiring Pogačar’s turns for their economy, he was doing just enough to keep the trio together but no more.
Philipsen howeever was struggling on the Mons-en-Pevèle sector and Pogačar used the false flat after this to distance him for good. Van der Poel wouldn’t work so Pogačar had to press on. This worked and 175 riders were reduced to a duel with the two star riders of the spring classics.
But the elimination race was not over. On the Pont-Thibault sector with 38km to go Pogačar took a corner too fast and rode into the grass verge. He unclipped his right foot and planted it in the ground and did a forward roll. Upright and seemingly unscathed he was trying to get his chain back in place bu losing time before the team car arrived to give him a fresh bike.
It all cost him no more than 20 seconds. The scenario wasn’t a disaster. He had Van der Poel in sight and could even try to wear him out at a distance, to keep the Dutchman in sight and turn it the race into a time trial. He soon had Van der Poel at 15 seconds, 12 seconds even. But back on the pavé and Van der Poel was carving the corners to take time. Then Pogačar seemed to be winning on the tarmac. This duel was intense and the gap was still 22 seconds some 15km after the crash.
But as the gap rose to 30 seconds, the advantage was turning to Van der Poel. Still no cushion because if Van der Poel punctured or, improbably crashed, then Pogačar would be back in his slipstream.
Only here Pogačar stopped to change bikes, as if in search of a solution. It might have been imperative but this was ruinous. Instead of a Formula-1 style pit-stop or a cyclo-cross bike swap he was left standing idle at the side of the road. As FranceTV’s Voeckler observed, the UAE mechanic needed to unpick Pogačar’s third bike off the roof amid the racking instead of grabbing the usual stand-by and so by the time he got to the spare out precious time was lost. It felt an age but was only an elevent second wait, but add stopping time and re-accelerating and the gap was 45 seconds. Then 50.
And that was that. Van der Poel did puncture on the Carrefour de l’Arbre but had enough of an advantage and a quick swap so it cost him almost nothing. Approaching Roubaix at one point Pogačar’s second place seemed in play as he was struggling but the chasers were kept away. Van der Poel was straining and his efforts ensured he had the velodrome to himself for a victory lap. Pogačar came in to a roar from the crowd.
Behind Pedersen lead in Van Aert and Florian Vermeersch and the Dane won the sprint to make the podium with Van Aert in fourth, the story of his spring classics campaign.
The Verdict
A thrilling race. We rightly wowed at Milan-Sanremo for the “long range” move on the Cipressa, here the attacks began with over 100km to go thanks to Mads Pedersen, then Van der Poel and Pogačar traded attacks.
Paris-Roubaix is an exceptional race in many ways, most obviously for the brutal course. The cobbles create jeopardy, eliminating Pedersen by puncture was cruel. Pogačar’s crash though was more handling error rather than misfortune, after all Van der Poel made it around the same corner but an unsatisfying aspect as it prevented a direct contest. But the slender gap between the two provided plenty of suspense, a mano a mano at distance for some time with Van der Poel increasing his lead with every turn on the cobbles.
Van der Poel delivered a satisfying win, his third in a row. Arguably the strongest rider, he also won thanks to agility, both staying upright and augmenting his advantage in the corners. His Alpecin-Deceuninck team were strong in applying pressure and opening the race early, to their advantage and spectators alike. Lidl-Trek looked even better but one puncture and their plans were deflated; Pedersen on the podium seems fitting for the spring but it’s striking again how this trio have excluded the rest, from other contenders to entire teams. In a race where fate plays such a role they still stood on the podium.
At times Pogačar looked like an imp against golems but he took the fight to the classics contenders, even making moves on the pavé and the win might have been within his grasp. Had he not crashed then he might have found a way to unpick Van der Poel, we’ll never know. But everything else being equal, had Pogačar not crashed then he’d have been with Van der Poel when he punctured on the Carrefour de l’Arbre and so he would have found himself in the lead. Of course it’s not so simple but to settle the what-ifs? he’ll have to come back and try again.
Great write up and race as usual. I agree with the “what if scenario” between VdP and Poggie but if neither of them had an incident then MvP would have won a finish sprint between them.
Either way my boy and I enjoyed the coverage and the result.
PS my boy unearthed my Inner Ring cycling cap and is wearing it now for sunny days when he goes riding. Yes my head was a tad too large when you sold these years ago 😉
The “what if” might infuriate some because it didn’t happen and it’s impossible to tell, something else might have happened entirely by the Carrefour de l’Arbre or Van der Poel would take a different line as he was on a wheel so many never have punctured etc etc etc.
But events just left things open, it’s more the promise that these two riders could keep the duel going for longer.
The first batch of caps were a tight fit so glad it fits someone today.
Glad I’m not the only one that gets a squeezed head in those caps!
Same! I still have mine, but way too tight to wear unfortunatley. I still have the kit though, socks and arm warmers as well.
I loved my cap to death, so for the last few years it serves as a pouch to wrap keys and cash in that I ram in my jersey back pocket. Another run would do well… hint hint.
haha about the Inrng hat – love that your son has taken it. That’s a great age for them to love the things their parents like.
I agree, great race and write-up.
The what-if’s will keep use going for the rematch in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, etc…..
Yeah – “he’ll have to come back and try again” is a delightful phrase to keep us going another 364 days!
As seen on the Velon video, Pogi was complaining about the front disc brake rubbing a little. DSs suggested him to wait a bit but he asked for an immediate swap. I could easily make a point about disc brakes, but I suspect that in this case it might have been just that strong feeling of your bicycle not running smooth when your legs are fading big time after a long top effort, aka “phantom flat”. Contador used to open up his brakes at the beginning of any decisive climb ^___^
If they were going to stop you’d think they’d tell him to wait while the mechanic readied the bike so the swap could happen faster.
Having raced with a wheel rubbing a brake it is disquieting. Even if it isn’t robbing you of power, it gets in your head, especially when you’re close to the limit. It’s also has caused me to be physically nauseated and only later, did I realize my brake was rubbing. So not all in the head. And all of that is with rim brakes, which you could fix in some manner, on the fly. With disc brakes, and that horrible “tick, tick, tick” sound that would suck especially when you knew you had to make up time due to your own mistake. Turns out he is human.
After I have watched again and again in various replay speeds the moment Pog’s bike flipped over, I could make against disc brakes the point of an accidental touch of Pog’s left hand on the brake lever. He came tantalizing close to avoid the flip, but his front wheel stopped rolling. Either by something on the ground, or by the aforementioned touch. Having myself fallen victim to all of the above (and then some), I tend to believe that the disc brake is to blame. Unless of course if he controls his front brakes with the right-hand lever.
They’re spinning knives! Remember that old chestnut.
Oh spin doctor, your knife is dull.
But surely an accidental touch of hand on the brake lever would have stopped the wheel of a rim brake bike rolling, too – and just as abruptly!?
For the same input, disk brakes produce much more output than rim brakes (because of the hydraulics, not the disks per se). This probably is a good thing, I am not suggesting some type of brakes are “better”. BUT, my personal experience tells that this can sometimes be a problem, when you grab on anything for your life. Then again, may be it is this way only for me.
The race had slightly boring tactical parts going on for “too” long once most selection had been made, but both the final chase, while it lasted, and that moment after Arenberg when the top dogs were trading atomic attacks as if sprinting to an imaginary finish line – the actual one being over 70 km away – were anthological.
I had cleared my diary for this, even turning down some last minute plans with friends. And, well, I was pleased I did. Perhaps not quite the battle for the ages we had all been hoping for, but not far off.
My heart broke for Pedersen who surely would have gone all the way with the other two, but it was frustration that overcame me when Pog took the needless (I think) bike change. Gabriele makes a good point, above, about that feeling that “something else must be wrong, not my legs”. I don’t know who was in the car for UAE? Perhaps they’ll come back with some hardened classics types in there next year, who can help with these calls.
The Brits… Another debut of note, Brennan impressed me a great deal. Evidently co-leader with WvA. Though when he dropped off he must have really dropped off, coming in a fair way down. Then again he’s 19 – surely the furthest he’s ever raced, and on the most punishing of terrain. Was pleased to see Fred Wright bag a top ten, and to see the lesser-known Pidcock among the OTL finishers. There’s some pride to be had in that.
But now with Pog down to ride Amstel, Fleche and Liege, with more varied opponents to take on in each (including the return of Remco) I wonder if I’ll ever socialise again. What a Spring.
I think he got the best you could ask, really, in Baldato runner-up in both cobbled Monuments, 8 times finisher in Roubaix 50% of them top-10s (and once 11th), 12 times finisher at Ronde with his top results 2-2-4-6. Mostly a gregario during a big part of his career but one knowing what’s this all about (supported by also experienced Marcato).
In fact he called going on, but if your rider insists repeatedly you must also take care of respecting him if it’s not life or death (I guess that one the episode happened everybody really knew that the race was gone, no matter what they might say).
Well there we go. Thanks for that, it has passed me by. I’m old enough to remember reading about Baldato’s exploits in Cycling Weekly in the UK, before catching him winning on the Champs in the Channel 4 cycling highlights! He must have been young then.
To the other point mentioned about Amstel. I suppose we’ll see, but Pog seems to be collecting all the races he can. Cannibalising a complete palamares from specialists who thought they were safe….
We’ll see what Pogačar does next, down to ride the Amstel but I would not be surprised if he skips it.
Brennan almost appeared a potential top five at one stage behind VdP, Pedersen and Pogacar, and might have had a better sprint than any of them… but 260km is a long way at nineteen – or at any age! He looked at ease in good company and on the cobbles too, and could be on IR’s chainring ranking for 2026 with a little more experience and stamina.
Enjoyed reading this JV.
Exactly the kind of tone and thoughts that are pleasant to skim through (and I’d say makes the world a better place!). Anyone who even starts this race (or tbh any race) has my full respect.
Although I have to admit I’m not expecting anyone to challenge P should he race the coming weekends! Healy and Pidcock might surprise, and Remco is a wild card but it seems far fetched he’ll come back at 100%.
Remco’s declarations (pretattica?) is he’ll race Ardennes only to find racing pace, then build up gradually towards TDF with some short stage race. The Classis target should be only Lombardia.
Amstel after a tough Roubaix is devastating, I’d skip if I was Pogi. Ronde + Amstel work decently, the Roubaix not as much. Sagan 2018 is the last good double performance I can recall obviously with the standard calendar.
I agree. I was shocked Amstel was on his schedule if I’m honest.
Thanks oldDAVE, I’ve always come here to enjoy the balanced tone and general enthusiasm for the sport from Inrng and the commenters alike, so good to hear I have contributed to that.
Chapeau to all of us.
Question, why was the UAE car allowed through to give Poggie a fed when he was clearly ponking ? It was only a 30-40 second gap between the lead and the chasers?
I thought the UCI rule was 1:00 minute before the leader cars were allowed to follow.
Thanks
There’s no minute rule but it’s become a convention. Paris-Roubaix more frequent interventions seem tolerated, subject to the commissaires and regulators approving it, ie in the right place, other vehicles not in the way and then getting back out of the way. Bissegger got a spare wheel quickly too when he punctured from the group as they allowed the Decathlon team car across briefly.
Wooden spoons for those above who mentioned Brennan.
Like in Strade TP overcooked on a corner. He was closing down MVDP but a flat and bike exchange ended all hopes.
Again, after 1/2 way thru the race zero teammates helping him.
Good race!
On both occasions, he had an off-road Champion following him; a coincidence?
Excellent race. A shame that Pog overcooked it as I think he could have made MVdP work for it to the line. Also that Mads punctured when he did. Though in the end neither event would have changed the podium … probably. I like how races are getting so intense early on and that Pog was willing to take on the big boys in their backyard– you get the feeling he’ll add this to his palmares sooner rather than later.
This race would have been a procession without Pog so I hope Remco comes back stronger than ever for LBL and that someone will show up for Lombardy. At least make the guy work his 9th and 10 monuments.
On MVDP’s bike swap before the finish…. MBW (my beautiful wife) says he didn’t really have a problem, just did not want to ride the E-bike into the velodrome…
(she’s from a long line of smalltime conspiracy theorists, but hey, who knows?)
It seems the old boxing saying about a good big man always beating a good little man applies at Roubaix. Pogacar looked well and truly jolted and jarred. I suspect this led to his error.
Went to bed with about 80 km to go expecting to see a cracking final two hours in the morning but it all fell apart a bit. Just the nature of the race I guess.
I look forward to a Roubaix when Mads has better luck.
Right? Many saying it would have been same outcome if he hadn’t flatted but I think MvDP would have more easily dropped Pogs on future sections than Mads. And Mads would have been an obviously bigger sprint issue for him as well.
It is indeed one of the curiosities of life that bad luck happens to everyone, except Mathieu Van der Poel.
100%
I think it was Gary Player who said “the more I practice the luckier I get”.
MvdP has been practicing for the secteurs for a quarter century or so.
Punctures aren’t always ‘bad luck’ as many watching road racing seem to imply. In the off-road disciplines, they are usually because of poor riding, poor lines, poor set up.
Riding in the gutter increases the risk of getting flats – and guess what – Mads suffered.
MvdP has very little problems in Roubaix, but was really pushing it the Carrefour when he didn’t know what the gap was – and guess what – he flatted
That’s a good point and I was going to reply this was hinted at in the paragraph above about Pedersen puncturing but think some of the text got overlayed when pasting in the photo code. Anyway you could see Pedersen on the sides of the pavé where the greatest puncture risk lies and soon after he punctured, but it’s hard to prove the link of course, for all we know he might have picked up a shard of glass on the tarmac two minutes before etc.
Out of curiosity was there any censure or fine for the UAE cars’ driver after he came perilously close to riders in getting up to Pogacar for that bottle/gel? That was some pretty hairy driving, no?
No, I saw the bulletin but none. Tudor had a car thrown off the race for info.
I think that kind of driving happens regularly during races we just don’t see it – I don’t think they did anything particularly wrong or unusual.
In all honesty, despite (like most cyclists) not being a car fan, I actually feel almost sorry for the team car drivers in races as it looks terrifying trying to avoid the riders while doing their job. Luckily most are ex-riders so appreciate the threat/power of a car even if mistakes sometimes happen.
ps for more on this great podcast with Geraint Thomas and Luke Rowe talking about driving ParisRoubaix for the first time – sounds awful!
I think perhaps that Paris-Roubaix is a celebration of Bleak.
I watched the race in the company of two friends who have become cycling fans only in the past two years and mainly through following the Tour.
Both were under the impression that according to that famous unwritten rule van der Poel should have waited for Pogacar!
I had no luck whatsoever trying to explain that it is one thing when the yellow jersey has to stop due to a flat or is caught in a pile-up and quite another when one of two competitors already racing full steam for the win crashes due to his own error. Or that in Paris-Roubaix fate and luck are essential parts of the race and that a P-R without bad luck striking big favorites is quite unimaginable.
PS One of the two is an ardent Pogacar fan and he was adamant that his hero would have waited, if the roles had been reverse…
Maybe if a fan had stepped out and checked Pogačar? Even then would or should MvdP have waited, probably not.
Yes. There’s absolutely no way MVDP should have waited for Pog. I personally ended this race fairly satisfied as many of the debates or what-ifs felt mostly answered…?
Should MVDP have waited?
No. Pog crashed himself and in a race like Roubaix no one would begrudge MVDP for riding on. Were Pog to have been taken down through no fault of his own it would be different but this was an open and shut case.
Would Pog have beaten MVDP?
Doubtful. The way MVDP eeked out the gap in a straight fight during those 10km before Pog’s second bike change and the way he closed an earlier gap on the cobbles to Pog, had me thinking the writing was on the wall well before the crash. Either by dropping Pog or outsprinting him I think MVDP had this.
Would Mads have beaten MVDP & Pog?
This is possibly more debatable and I wish we’d have seen how good Mads really was on Sunday, but going on past evidence in a race of this level with M/P at their best Mads is yet to overcome them, plus both M/P had issues of their own and Mads was not able to close back in (despite his coming at a worse moment), so I’m happy to imagine it’s still unlikely he’d have overcome both M/P had the three been together with zero issues.
Would Ganna have been a threat without preArenberg puncture?
Ineos executed a great plan early but were undone by bad luck. Even without the chasing back though it’s a stretch to see Ganna having an influence in the outcome.
There’s probably more what if’s – Styven, WVA – but I just don’t see either having a say in the win Sunday without a completely different race scenario (ie both we up the road somehow and playing a team game).
I would’ve been nice to enjoy MvsP to the end but doesn’t stop it being a great race as Roubaix always is. I just wish races that deliver this consistently weren’t so rare in the calendar.
Is Roubaix delivering consistently? Yes, to me, but not as much in the middle (decade) term. And some fans had their legitimate perplexities about 2023 & 2024. It’s a lot about tastes and benchmark.
Hayman’s was the only highlight in a string of mediocre editions starting with Cancellara’s last and until Sagan’s in 2018 (not included). Like one out of five. Then things got better again.
Of course, I personally love Classics and especially cobbles, so I liked many of them all the same, but some of those races really felt lacking.
2013-2022 despite some 4 great editions wasn’t an excellent decade as a whole, and people not loving long solos might extend that to 2012-2024.
I insist, nearly half of the editions being very good is absolutely satistfying to me, and personally I am able to appreciate some lesser edition, too, but 2000-2012 was a better vintage, all in all.
The above is true for a lot of races, Monuments or not, GTs or not. The shockingly good level of the Giro 2010-2019 isn’t there anymore, nor was it as good before, especially 1999-2003. Similarly, the TDF has slowly turned away from the awful 2012-2018 period (probably only one good edition in 2015 and a mere couple of decent ones in 2013-14), with better but still “flawed” editions (for different reasons) in 2019-2021, them a couple of great ones – or three, ir depends.
No need to speak about Sanremo…
I think that we should adjust expectations and accept that race quality ebbs and flows through time depending on the riders “interpreting” them and so many other factors. What’s important is that cycling – *precisely because of* its intrinsic variety – normally offers a number of great races essentially each and every season. That’s not obvious, and it’s not true for every sport, either. If cycling was a sport of same athletes battling out a series of varied but essentially similar “format races” à la F1, Hammer series etc., we’d have all the same bad batches and probably even fully flawed seasons.
It’s biodiversity vs. monocultive, the latter offers peaks of production but it’s self-destructive in the middle to long term.
I had the subtle feeling that MvdP for a moment or two (or three) had that idea of waiting Pog passing through his mind.
His interviews mirrored that in a sense: what he must have been thinking about the headwind while racing, and the basic fact of even mentioning the sheer possibility of waiting, something which as many have said really has no place at all in P-R.
Just impressions of course, probably rinforced by MvdP not looking on the road as if he was going flat out from moment zero, but only a little later on, which might also be his usual strategy of leaving a bit of a bait then killing you out (as seen on E3 recently, among so many other occasions).
If he really thought about waiting, even a passing thought (not that he actually did, obviously), this would tell a lot about his lucidity, his sense of control even against a formidable rival and… the different attitude held towards Pogi vs. say Wout.
Yes. I agree. He said it in his interviews as you say.
Somewhat related: the U-23 race was won by the 19-year-old Dane Albert Withen Philipsen and the 21-year-old Swede Jacob Söderqvist made it a 1-2 for Lidl – Trek.
(In fact there was some debate whether the two should have made it more of a race for the victory…)
PS Winning a big race in a junior category is of course only a hint of a promise of winning *some* big race in the elites, but both riders should certainly be on everyone´s list of young riders to follow.
PPS The last – and the only, if I´m not mistaken – U-23 winner who went on to win the elites´ race was Marc Madiot.
Philipsen caught his team mate Söderqvist on the way to the finish and then beat him. I feel bad for Söderqvist.
Philipsen’s already joined the World Tour, rode Strade Bianche and the Scheldeprijs so riding the U23 race and taking it from a notional amateur seems a bit too much. It’s like joining a top music conservatory then entering a high school or village music competition and running away with it.
But it’s not Philipsen’s fault, he’s a teenager and riding a light calendar so you can see why it happens as long as the rules permit it and others do the same. They’ve been tightened up a bit so that World Tour pros can’t do the U23 Worlds.
The consolation for Söderqvist is he’s just been given a contract for the Lidl-Trek WorldTeam for 2026.
Not touched on enough, IMO, is Pog’s errors being the result of being put on the limit. MVdP was seasoned, confident and relentless. Pog’s nutrition and possible cramping, close call with the team car and overcooking the corner. He was struggling at times. Far more than I’ve seen in the past. And that’s when errors occur. Even going out of his way, risking the pilons, to get off the cobbles just for a second. He can get there at PR of course but his face showed it, he was over it, at lease with this first one.
Also completely agree.
This is why again despite MVDP considering waiting, it was totally legitimate for him to continue.
And agree Pog looked tired, but hard to imagine someone with his competitive spirit not returning. I’d be interested to see his first post Flanders interview again to see how tired he was then?
Not tired, rather angry. I think he didn’t speak at all for a while, “taking advantage” of the fact that although he had looked the strongest, he ended up… 4th, so no podium duties.
Just keep wishing Mads hadn’t punctured and what could have been. Even if he finished third he deserved to be fighting for it instead of chasing all day.
Like Pogi can’t wait for next year too.