Tadej Pogačar attacks on La Redoute to go solo and win Liège-Bastogne-Liège for the third time. Nobody could or would respond, especially as Remco Evenepoel was out of team mates and out of position.
The early breakaway of 12 included Jack Haig (Bahrain) and Hannes Wilksch (Tudor) as possible relay riders for their leaders. Notably two from TotalEnergies plus three from Wagner-Bazin. They knew they were unlikely to win so at least get up the road and be seen, a message several other teams perhaps have not wanted acknowledge all along the spring classics, sitting tight in the hope of something.
As UAE towed the bunch to Bastogne it was good to read James Odvart’s piece in French website DirectVelo published just at the same time on Sunday morning about the “struggle to exist” for many teams and riders in the face of “the mutants”. As Total’s Anthony Turgis explained it’s not just Pogačar and Van der Poel who are the “mutants” but several of Pogačar’s team mates could lead other teams and its this that makes it even harder to get the better of them.
After the turn in Bastogne Ineos had a go, first firing Bob Jungels clear and then Tobias Foss jumped across to him. Anticipation? They’d take two minutes but it proved insufficient to get ahead of events as a pattern established behind with UAE taking the lead on the climbs to wear down the peloton. The race had reached Bastogne on the slowest schedule but soon it was running well ahead of the fasted plan.
They’d ease off, sometimes vanishing on the descents to the point where it began to look like Pogačar was out of team mates. Only they were back at the team car collecting items from the buffet. Others, notably Soudal-Quickstep, EF and Lidl-Trek, often took over on the valley sections.
If the Ineos tandem up the road was a surprise, the real surprise was the lack of movement from other teams in these points. There were almost no moves when UAE were absent from the front. Easier said than done, with teams rightly shy about walking onto the dance floor in case nobody else followed. But in not moving, each pedal stroke was bringing them closer to La Redoute with nothing to show for the day, pallbearers to their own burial.
Watching walloon channel RTBF and there was a keen focus on Remco Evenepoel, after all the roads were lined and daubed with “Allez Remco”. Coming into Remouchamps and the overhead helicopter shot showed the riders approaching the climb and alarm bells rang out as Evenepoel was missing from the shot. Counting the riders almost one by one he was back beyond 50th place. There would be no duel with Pogačar, he was too far back and with only Mauri Vansevenant for help.
Pogačar looked around. He might have been told via race radio too. But absent any rivals he attacked, a seated move like on the Mur de Huy earlier in the week and this time he was away. There were still 34.7km to go and memories of the Amstel and going this far out was not part of the plan. But this time he wasn’t looking back as much if at all.
Evenepoel rode hard to chase, passing through traffic but there were too many riders. Meanwhile a quartet was up the road in Giulio Ciccone, Tom Pidcock, Ben Healy and Julian Alaphilippe and crucially they all had team mates behind to sap Evenepoel.
Pogačar started the Roche-aux-Faucons climb with over a minutes’ lead and would take ten seconds more by thee top. On the slopes Healy and Ciccone got away to reserve the other two podium steps while a group of about 40 riders came in next with Simone Velasco hitting the 440 UCI points jackpot for XDS-Astana.
The Verdict
A one-man show. There was no contest after La Redoute, more a scrap for the other places on the podium. There was little battle before either with several teams driving into La Redoute with a plan.
Baron Von Clausewitz’s “no plan survives first contact with the enemy” was better rephrased by Mike Tyson with “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face“. Here too many teams queued up to receive a haymaker on La Redoute and they got what was coming.
But what else could they have done? Perhaps taking the fight to the UAE team in between the climbs to disrupt their work, so when their riders were tired from pulling they’d be in trouble. Only UAE’s work had sapped rival teams. On a 250km course with over 4,000 of vertical gain the best rider had every chance to win, especially when backed by one of the strongest teams.
The one challenger was Evenepoel. Speaking to RTBF after he was tired and paying for the distance in his return to competition. But arguably he lost ground on the descent yesterday, the wonder is if he found the 90km/h fight for position too much and opted out? Certainly he still had some fight left on La Redoute, over Cornement and on the Côte des Forges.
Pogačar’s win unleashes a tsunami of statistics and anecdotes about Monument wins, world champions, Tour winners and of course Eddy Merckx but what stood out was he just so far ahead of his peers yesterday, that there was no comparison on the day. The thesaurus of superlatives exhausted, once again we reach for inter temporal references.
What can one say. Another superb and outstanding performance by the race favourite. I don’t think there is a rider who can beat Pogačar on a regular basis if there is climbing on the route? Can he supersede Merckx ? It is starting to look very much like it.
Vingegaard got the better of him in the 2023 Tour but Pogačar improved in 2024, obvious but it does set the scene for the summer. We should see both racing the Dauphiné.
Yes, I agree. We should wait to see what Vingegaard can do in the Dauphine and especially the Tour. Even last year, Vingegaard out up a tough fight for the first two weeks (some even thought he was the favourite after stage 11).
Even if Vingegaard wins the Tour, how could this ever succeed over the spring Pogi showed?
I’m so tired about this overrated 3 weeks over a whole year…
I mostly agree. I can’t say it’s overrated but the overall excellence in the Classics + Grand Tour mastery…I didn’t think I’d see it in my lifetime.
I just look back at the Froome and Sky days, Armstrong…and yuck. I mean, ok, I’ll give Sky some credit since they continued with Thomas and Bernal. Vingegaard is classy and so likeable, and I’m glad he can rival Pogacar at TdF, but it feels almost unfair if he wins due to Pogacar’s added exploits outside of the Tour.
Mreckx could sprint so I think he remains the rider who could do everything.
That aside I think what we have seen in the last two races is the UAE team doing a better job. They took him 200 m or so into the Mur de Huy and just bossed the peleton last night.
Take Merckx in his prime and Pogi would absolutely destroy him in a race, so he is the greater rider. Game over, end of argument.
It’s impossible to say, give Pogačar a steak for breakfast, then do a 250km race on five bidons and three ham sandwiches and some bread rolls laced with jam and he might race differently to put it mildly.
I eat that in 50km…
In hindsight, the performances of vintage riders remain all the more staggering, given what we now know of biology and nutrition.
But as for comparisons of then vs. now, best left in the pubs IMO.
You made a funny.
Tadej can sprint, just not against the top sprinters. But the top sprinters of today are far above the sprinters of Merckx’s era, it’s apples and oranges.
Really? What do you base that (rather sweeping) statement on?
I found that quite a strange race. Pogacar soloing off into the distance as if he is popping off the front of the Sunday run to check the cafe is open is nothing new of course. But despite the fact that the pace was fairly relentless we weren’t that far from having a bunch sprint finish, if Pogacar is taken out of the equation.
The sprint scenario wasn’t far off so you wonder if this might tempt Van der Poel but if this was going to be the case we’d surely see more attacks on the Roche-aux-Faucons from riders who need to avoid this? Still it was interesting to see how things bunched up behind rather than split on the way to the finish.
I was shocked MvdP didn’t ride Liege this year as he’s been 3rd there in the past and his Spring season wasn’t particularly long. He’s also been top 10 at Lombardia the only time he’s ridden it, so has a good chance of being the first non-Belgian to win all five Monuments. Maybe he will give it a go when he’s thoroughly bored of destroying everyone in cyclocross during the Winters. Surely he and Pogacar are both vying for that list, and I think both are capable.
Pedantic. Sorry.
“The thesaurus of superlates exhausted………”
superlatives???
Or have you taught me a new word?
Fixed, thanks.
Small note – Michael Matthews finished 11th. I’m a fan of his but also think he’s probably the best rider over the last decade (obvious Mads Pedersen is above more recently) not to win a Monument in his career. It’s a shame he couldn’t nab one early the way Kwiatiwski or even his country man Matt Goss managed as I feel like his level of talent has been unfortunately lost in the mix with his career overlapping so many greats. In my view could’ve maybe had just about the career GregVanA had with a bit more luck.
I had high hopes for Matthews when he started because he looked natural but he just seems to run out of sprint 10 m before the line. Colbrelli was probably a similar type … but could keep it going to the line.
Is it a case with Matthews that he’s a slight Jack of all trades, master of none? Harsh, but..
Yep exactly that.
It’s just being a jack of all trades recently feels incredibly unfair to some riders whose talent levels feel like they deserve more – WVA is probably the most obvious example. It’s incredible still to think he’s only won a single monument.
A list of the most ‘unlucky’ (I realise it’s a debatable term!) riders of recent years would be fun to write although the criteria would be near impossible to agree on as ‘should’ve won more’ is a bit of a wooly hold all!!
(Especially as I actually think Sagan should’ve likely won more! So the bar is high!)
Freddy Maertens must be the best classics rider to never win a monument (although the term “monument” only dates from the late 1980s). I actually find it extraordinary.
Great shout!
Also note – excellent brief podcast debate on boring vs not boring Pogacar with Daniel F and Lionel B on the cycling podcast. I’m firmly on the Daniel Friebe side of the argument.
I also have a slight suspicion as to whether those complaining about Pog making races boring are actually even watching the smaller races where he’s not present. **I have zero evidence of this (insert laughing emoji!)** but it leads into a theory I’m currently mulling over that (in my personal and likely laughably simplistic view) – despite races where Pog or MVDP or Remco obliterate the field becoming more regular, overall there are as many fun vs boring races as ever when you look at the that entire season?
Catalunya was great, BrabaP also good, Paris Nice was okay and that’s just a small sample – then of the races with Pog, MSR was brilliant, Amstel likewise, Flanders pretty good, likewise Roubaix – only LBL and Flèche and StradeB have been true write offs if you’re only interested in 1st place (which I’m not).
Of all those races, I’ve regularly been bored by LBL over the years, and Flèche is always terrible, personally I’m not an MSR fan, and smaller stages races are often hit or miss – so overall really I feel we’ve had exactly the same ratio of boring to great races as always, it’s just the shadow of Pog has begun to change the conversation, and maybe even the MVDP+Pog steamroller of Flanders/Roubaix/Giro in 2024 tipped the balance in a way we’re yet to recover from…
But – I guess my true underlying feeling is that the walkovers are inextricably linked to the moments of transcendent brilliance (MSR 25, Flanders 23) and those are the salt’bae magic this era/generation have over many others before that heighten my interest rather than weaken it – but I’m very aware it’s just a matter of taste and each to their own.
I just have this glass half full optimism that Pog vs Ving might yet produce an all time great TDF having already come close or Pog vs MVDP might also produce an all time Roubaix having already given us two all time great Monuments – and even if I sound greedy considering all those riders have already given us, those would solidify what is an all time great era in my eyes.
sincere apologies… one final comment.
I said a jokingly silly comment after MSR or Flanders that Pog might have secretly been aiming to win all five monuments in a year this year…
I said ‘secretly’ specifically as no one could ever make such a lofty goal publicly when they’ve never even raced Roubaix – it would’ve been extremely arrogant and probably laughable.
But now looking at him being on the podium at all Monuments to this point and knowing the hold he has on Lombardy – I’m seriously wondering whether this thought might have crossed his mind?
He can likely never better Merckx’s records seeing how cycling has changed since that era, but 5 monuments in a year would be one record that would tower above many others if he could pull it off in the coming years?
It would take huge luck but in this era, only MVDP can seemingly stop him at MSR/Roubaix and Remco at LBL – without crashes or if either of those riders is sub par it now doesn’t seem like that unrealistic of a goal?
It’s also now 10 / 9 in his monuments rivalry with MVDP, and as far as I can see all the advantages lie with Pog if he continues to race the monuments – in the next 12 months he could even land the decisive blow as you’d expect the score to be 11 / 9 by the time MSR rolls around again and MVDP will need to repeat his two wins this year just to keep up, a tall order for anyone.
Outside of crashes and illness, the wind direction at MSR and other races might actually be the make or break factor in all the above if they prohibit long range attacks the way (along with tiredness from Roubaix) it did at this years Amstel.
I think it is 9-8 rather than 10-9 right now :-). Even assuming Lombardy – injuries, boredom or bad luck permitting – is a bit of a formality, Pogaçar at least has to ride into next spring to draw level with de Vlaeminck. Add in two Amstels, two Flèches Wallone and two Strade Bianche and he is clearly the most complete classics rider for fifty years, even ignoring his stage racing prowess.
Merckx’ best season in the monuments was 1975 when he went 1,1,2,1,7. Pogaçar can potentially surpass that this year – currently he is 3.1,2,1,?
I think MSR is going to be the hardest to win. It’s the one classic that it seems you can’t just win by crushing the opposition, you have to have a bit of luck as well. In Flanders, Liege and Lombardy the terrain is hard enough to enable Pogaçar to break everyone, and seemingly even in Roubaix he has the skill and strength to do that if MVDP isn’t quite on his A game. But it’s hard to guarantee at MSR: he might win, but I don’t think you’d ever see him on the start line and call it a high probability. He’s still probably reliant on getting 10s on the Poggio and hoping the chase hesitates behind.
It seems telling that MSR is the one monument Gilbert could never win, and that Peter Sagan, a man seemingly born to win it, also failed to overcome.
There is absolutely no guarantee that Pogacar will win it. It is perhaps the best stamp on the Pog-MVDP rivalry that MVDP has thus far kept that race from him.
He *probably* will get it. But the fact that, even at the absolute peak of his career, he has thus far been thwarted, tells us that it is far from a foregone conclusion, and makes the climb of the Poggio all the more thrilling every time the peloton takes the ramp with Pog at the front.
OK. That was a fairly boring race. But I wasn’t bored by Pog. I enjoyed being witness to a greatness of a type I thought I wouldn’t see in my life. I have no memories of watching Hinault, so this is the first time I’ve witnessed this sort of true all round talent. I am sure this will be the same for many people. I enjoy it in the same way I enjoyed watching Warne destroy England in the cricket. Just pleased to be a witness.
Anyway. What on earth were Ineos up to? They’ve been doing this all spring to poor old Foss. Why?
The INEOS thing is funny because I do agree but you regularly hear people accusing other teams of ‘not getting ahead of the Pog/MVDP train’ – it’s just an illustration of you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t!
Oh, I agree. I am sure they had a plan, and good on them. But was the plan?
I don’t think it was for Foss or Jungels to solo away, so I confidently said to my family “I think we’ll see Arensmen or Rodriguez relay up to them”. It wasn’t that either. But plan B (or C?) was seemingly having Thomas go full gas into the foot of La Redoute and that was fun to watch.
So yeah, fair play to them having a proactive plan just had me guessing what it was!!
I think it’s just a case of having a man up ‘in case’ – if there’s a crash you have two strongish riders in front who were able to get away at a later point in the race without being marked in the way more elite candidates may have been.
As said below, tactics can be moot in the face of the current top tier so I just saw it as hitting out in hope to be ready to profit from the unexpected if nothing else?
My only take away is for all the couch DS’ who scream ‘get in front of Pog’ this is what it looks like, it’s not a real tactic and you can seem silly – as would be the case with Anoymous’ ‘teams collude’ advice below.
What even does ‘team collude’ mean? Ride hard in the first 150? Then you just do UAE’s work for them? Send the best riders off early? Pog could easily mark them if even any team leader would agree to sacrifice their chances to a rival to force this imaginary early break… and if those options are out we’re back to what we saw?
There are no tactics to beat a rider who’s this superior in certain types of races – but the races that remain competitive have their own failings so it’s quite a tough nut to crack and why I often prefer stage racing to one day races for the variety of winners.
Hey – they go through this in detail on Geraint Thomas podcast, very interesting.
Is it the old “What we (and everyone) is doing isn’t working so let’s just try something, anything?”
“is” should be “are”…oy
At what point will teams realize that they need to essentially collude if the want to have any chance to beat Pog.
At what point will the ASO realize they need to collude with the Tour of Turkey and pay Pogacar to do that instead?! Thats about the most hope we have of the Walloon classics becoming a race.
LOL. We’d get a situation like Majka and Pog playing rock paper scissors for the stage win there, I’m sure!
But honestly like put Bahrain or Picnic up to task of making a human chain to Pog’s wheel. Gift them some stage wins in the Giro as remuneration.
I’m only half kidding
I appreciate @oldDAVE’s thoughts on ‘fun vs. boring’ races. Good points.
Sometimes I find tactical analyses a bit moot when Tadej rides away unchallenged, in the saddle. Maybe tactics still matter, but they seem to matter less with Tadej.
Thank you.
Total aside –
there are currently 37 comments on this post (no preview)
– noticeably fewer than I expected.
compared to 68 Roubaix (plus 58 for the preview)
compared to 79 Flanders (plus 115 for the preview)
of course they are more popular races and we haven’t had comments from Gabriele to bump up the average *(apologies I seem to have overtaken the excitable mantle for this race).
last year LBL was left with 87 comments (32 preview)
compared to 97 Roubaix
compared to 66 Flanders
I’m aware that scientific studies of data say you should not go in with any preconceived ideas – which I absolutely did and was suprised LBL last year ended with more responses than Flanders (the Pogacar effect?) – but I’d love to see a general breakdown of INRNG analytics from DAY 0 to now – obviously there’s absolutely no reason we/I am entitled to this, nor should INRNG do so as it might reflect more of changing readership during the UK cycling boom than it does ‘interest in individual races’ but it would just be fun to look at what brings out the readers/commenters – I assume it’s a venn diagram of popularity of certain races overlaid with whether it’s an exciting day overlaid with popularity/name recognition of the winner.
I’m just interested to see which races peak people’s interest the least and whether the Giro’s new GC sprint offering announced today or certain races change of profile are part of a trends we can see in the audience numbers here in the lead up to the alterations – although I’m sure INRNG will reply that drawing any conclusions like this from a niche cycling blog would be pointless and daft.
Admittedly though, I am both pointless and daft.
The recent interest for me has been Michael Storer’s win and star performance of 18 year old Seixas.
I’ve followed Storer’s career closely and was likewise happy.
Interesting points – and I would like to know the stats as well.
I lost interest in LBL as soon as Pog took off, and in general (I might be the odd man out here in the blog) I’m less and less interested in races where Pog is on the startlist, so I might have added to the ups and downs on the various posts.
+1
+1
+1
+1
With me this isn’t just limited to Pogacar. Him and MvdP are effectively the same person when there is only one of them on the startlist. Or, they at least have the same effect. Whereas before I would rush around to get stuff done in order to sit down and watch the end of a bike race from as far out as possible, now I watch the race until Pogdvp attacks. Then I get on with whatever I need to do.
Re OldDave’s semi scientific study, a curve ball to consider is someone putting a controversial comment in that garners a shed load of responses that has nothing to do with the actual race in question!
Excellent point.
Data – endlessly interesting but fabulously misleading.
To bring this back to cycling, interesting to see Alpecin saying during the GCN Zwift contest (yes I’m happy to give them a free advert!) how they’re looking for riders who are in the most basic sense just *fast* now – Gianni V was used as an example of a rider who might not have all the glitzy data but because of less easily measurable factors (bike handling, pos generally more relaxed in race approach) ends up getting to the finish faster than most because he expends his energy more efficiently.
Essentially saying, no point having a massive ftp if it’s all gone but the last 20km and the finish line doesn’t lie – so sometimes the most simple question of ‘is he/she fast’ is all you need. *(sometimes)
It doesn’t have to be bad for the sport, or even uninteresting, for dominance to reduce discussion.
In the States I’m a fan of Michigan Football, and Michigan won the national title in 2023 for the first time in 27 years, the best Michigan team of the lifetime of any fan, a delightful season.
They were dominant, and the hard parts of the schedule were backloaded. All the fans loved everything about the season. But it was so consistent and predictable that the leading website, Mgoblog, titled its weekly game column “Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V” after the third week, because even with how wonderful and fun the team was, there was nothing much new to talk about.
Predictable dominance just doesn’t merit much discussion. I like what Pog is doing and am more likely to watch to see it. But after the event, what is there to say? Everyone already knew he was the favorite. The question was whether anyone could find a way to compete with him. The answer was “no.” The rest is just finding enough words to make a full-length column.
It’s not the end of the world. There’s just not much else to say.
Duluth,
“like what Pog is doing and am more likely to watch to see it.”
Its obvious that Pog is splitting the cycling audience much as he is impacting the races. I acknowledge that many feel like you – being more likely to watch races where he will crush the competitors – while I (and some undetermined other segments) are moving in the opposite direction. I wonder what that will mean for cycling – and the media markets – if Pog will run at this level for the next, say, 2-4 year.
hi
On the “Does Pog make it boring” thing…. Anyone who thinks so should sit down and watch all of Indurain’s five TdF wins.
Now THAT is boring! In five years, that I can recall, there was perhaps a single hour when he appeared to be on the ropes, when Jalabert won the stage to Mende.
I’m Spanish and I certainly agree that Big Mig’s TdFs were boring. Just as boring as most of Pog’s races.
Another good point, and sort of an expansion on what @oldDAVE said. If we look at this season, there have already been some pretty exciting races, and more to come. But if we look at past seasons, there were some pretty dull periods, too. Different perspectives. Until Tadej rides away again!
Final comment on LBL –
I’m very bored with the cycling podcast complaining about Pogacar not having a nickname when a great one seems to be lurking on various message boards;
The Anomaly.
I realise the fear it might lead people to the D word but who cares? It’s a great nickname and perfectly fitting.
The nickname game is one of the great parts of being a cycling fan even if I’m still bugged by Sky/Ineos failing to embrace the perfect monikers for their riders and trying to force FroomeDog, The Rhino and TopGanna down our throats!! Especially when Froome’s nickname was such a gift;
The Tarantula.
I wish still that would catch on so we can add it to the other recent greats:
The Shark
The Condor
The Butterfly
El Pistolero
Purito
Cuddles (so good)
The Little Prince
The Panzer-wagon
The Cricket
It’s a shame Spartacus is a bit weak and no great names ever stuck for Sagan nor Boonen (unless I don’t fully understand Tomeke? It’s just a play on his name so feels less imaginative?).
People mourn the loss of great nicknames but this generations seems as good as ever to me. Onto MVDP and Wout…
(Future warning – I will likely repost this exact comment during the Tour de France to push the above further!)
@OLDDave, as you indeed admitted, stats on ongoing events should be used with extreme care if you want to compare with “closed” ones 😉
59 and running with a monster blackout in Spain keepin’ me away (and precisely when I wasn’t at home in the islands!) isn’t bad.
^___^
At first sight, the debate looks interesting, even.