“Cyclist enters race” isn’t normally news but Tadej Pogačar’s decision to ride Paris-Roubaix this year is of interest on several levels.
The whole thing has felt like a prolonged teaser operation since he first published a video on social media of him riding in the Arenberg forest on 10 February.
Today his team announced it inside a press release about the roster for the E3, what journalists call “burying the lede”. The team’s communications are not their strongest point, their website still has a link at the top to X for the “@TeamUAEAbuDhabi” username they deleted several years ago. But that’s a luxury of long term sponsorship, they don’t have to polish every message.
The message will have reached the other riders on the team. This matters a little because when Pogačar is at a race he’s the team’s obvious leader. So his presence on the startline in Compiègne soon means the likes of Nils Politt, Tim Wellens, Antonio Morgado, Florian Vermeersch are going to have to take one for the team. They could still win but the riding style is not “more the merrier”, it’s typically “all for one” as we saw on the Cipressa.
They’re well paid for this but part of the implicit deal joining UAE has been to for Pogačar at other times and get opportunities for themselves. Now these chances shrink. It won’t lead to mutiny but it might prove frustrating and there could be a long term effect because if Pogačar doesn’t win this year but gets close there’s every chance he’s back again and again.
“The Tour de France is the priority of the season. His plan is to do the Tour de France and the Vuelta, that’s already a lot of work”
– Mauro Gianetti, RMC radio (translated)
Staying with the team, management has said out loud they’d prefer it if he did not ride. Speaking to French radio station RMC team boss Mauro Gianetti also said “if he wants to do it… …we’re not going to stop him“. This is also interesting as a team boss is saying out loud he can’t stop his rider. Would another team boss put their foot down? Possibly but equally any team that employed Pogačar would have to find ways to keep him content and motivated. Some of this is apparently mediated via Pogačar’s agent Alex Carrera. Either way it shows a rider with more clout than their team and that’s notable.
One reason why UAE management don’t want him to race is the crash and injury risk. The Tour de France is the priority for them many times over. But Paris-Roubaix’s hype can get ahead of the reality, it’s a difficult and sometimes brutal race but it’s not necessarily a crash fest or a scene of butchery. Many riders can’t race for some time after because of sore hands. Season-spoiling injuries can happen but they’re not legion.
Jonas Vingegaard’s Tour preparations were undone by the Itzulia Basque Country last year, before that Pogačar’s Tour was spoiled by a pothole in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. These things can happen anywhere. Perhaps they are more likely on the way to Roubaix. Pogačar skipping two races in the E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in order to add one race to Roubaix probably may even reduce his crash chances but it’s impossible to prove.
L’Equipe’s front page on Sunday morning ran with Le Dompteur, a noun usually applied to a lion tamer but this time for Mathieu van der Poel who has mastered the way to beat Pogačar. Roubaix could well be a repeat. Pogačar has been able to win Flanders because he’s had his team ride at warp speed into the Oude Kwaremont so that everyone is in the red and then he uses the relatively long climb – two kilometres – to pile on the pressure and crack rivals, Van der Poel included. For Roubaix there’s no climb, he has no comparative advantage on Van der Poel.
Indeed at 66kg he’s very light for Roubaix, a race has suited heavy riders and one reason for delaying Pogačar’s focus on Paris-Roubaix has been to come back later with some more bulk. Philippe Gilbert has been listed at 69kg, but might have been bigger that spring. Bernard Hinault in 1981 at a reported 65kg is the more obvious exemplar if we start fishing around in history. But so much has changed in terms of bikes that comparisons seem fruitless.
Also Paris-Roubaix is no race for debutants, even if he’s done the junior edition and raced some pavé during the Tour de France. Of all the Monuments this one rewards patience and experience. A novice can still win, see Sonny Colbrelli in 2021 but he’s the exception to the rule, plus he was 31 years old on his first go. Before that we go back to Felice Gimondi in 1966. Only this was in the pre-Arenberg era and even included the Pas Roland climb outside Mons-en-Pévèle. Today bike tech can help here as while technique still counts for plenty, 32mm tires on wide rims insulate more than an extra roll of bartape used to. All told it’ll be hard for him to win… but fun to watch.
Conclusion
What Pogačar wants, he gets. Unless Mathieu van der Poel has a say.
Do we think he might change his mind (or the team have the final say) if it’s a wet and muddy Roubaix?
I think one lesson from this is it’s up to him, if he really wants he’ll go for it. But let’s see what happens in Flanders as this could have a say, and then the weather too.
Also wet conditions could suit Van der Poel and Van Aert with their skills; but a lighter rider can have a say here too as it becomes less about brute force. Anyway lots of variables and if he’s in now, it’ll take something to cross him out.
Nibali did very well on the wet cobbles in 2014
But he had supreme bike handling skills, too, better than Pogi (who is quite good, too, just one or two steps below the Pidcock, van der Poel, Sagan… and Nibali category).
I really enjoyed Nibali but am bemused how you’ve arrived at his bike handling skills being so much better than Pogacar’s?
I’m not looking to start a long debate but do you have any proof of this or is this just your opinion?
I realise Nibali had great skills and was a brilliant descender but I’m assuming you’re going off Pog’s crashes at the ‘23 TDF and the recent StradaB?
It’s just I also remember Nibali crashing on multiple descents, especially later in his career.
As for other general hear’say that might give an informed opinion I’ve heard many comment on Pog’s lack of energy expenditure in the bunch which suggests formidable handling skills (I guess as seen by his road furniture dodge last year). Unfortunately I assume we don’t have Nibali’s equivalent data?
I should add I’m not necessarily disagreeing but just interested if this is an opinion based on fact or just you as a Nibali fan using the biased-eye-test?
As you surely remember, Nibali won some races essentially out of handling skills only (some of them “in tandem” with Sagan), plus several occasions in which they were a very substantial co-factor. Pogi not as many, altough of course I recall a couple of case in which handling skill were important, albeit not the only and decisive factor, plus others in which fine handling of the bike was a requisite of sort. As I said, he’s very very good, but a few others sit on the very first steps of this peculiar category.
Utterly funny that you consider hearsay and unspecified comments you’ve heard as “data”, OTOH I’ve heard comments about Pogi spending too much energy to keep near the front but nothing of this is really meaningful. Freire is undoubtedly that sort of athlete, Pogi, dunno, might be. Not so manifest, anyway.
As for accidents and crashes, the only serious observation would be racedays vs. number of unfortunate events.
As a side note, Nibali spends part of his spare time posting cool MTB and gravel rides (with timed descents)/videos where his skills are pretty evident even now.
By the way, if that can be put on an scale, I’m more of a fan of Pogi than Nibali’s.
OldDave – just tossing my two cents in too – it isn’t that Pogi is “bad”, but Nibali is one of those riders who was fearless and earned his reputation for this very subjective skillset.
Of course, there are situations where Nibali fell (Brazil Olympics), but the risks he was taking on a very slippery descent are widely accepted. He had some very standout rides too – the 2014 TdF cobbled Paris-Roubaix stage when Lars Boom piloted him to a very impressive ride.
Pogi clearly has excellent bike skills as well, and this is a subjective opinion, but at this point, I agree with Gabriele – Nibali belonged in the Sagan and Pidcock category, and Pogi is a slot below.
Yes – as said I wasn’t actually disagreeing just interested if it was opinion or something more.
To me as a lay person I find it a tiny bit hard to call and maybe agree but Pog’s performance at his own ‘Roubaix stage’ and his Flanders win (and maybe in a few weeks!) seemed to me as good as Nibali’s own example. But I do know the counters: Nibali’s TDF was wet and Flanders isn’t as demanding on bike handling as Roubaix.
As for crashes, I’d also accept that some of Nibali’s was from risk taking, but it then seems only fair to say Pog’s have been also?
And finally when I refer to hear’say that was more just a joke – but what I was specifically meaning was the comparisons of calorie intake from Strava data that many have pointed out and Pog seemingly needed less energy expenditure for reasons that those watching guess are either lack of nerves or/due to bike handling – despite others noting the time he spends at front of the bunch. The problem with this is it’s a hypothesis based on what might be wobbly data, as they’re all using different brands of bike computer, on different nutrition plans etc etc – but I guess the end point of the argument would be that Pog like Nibali also wins some races on the energy he conserves by superior bike handling.
It’s just totally unprovable.
So yes I would likely agree as by the end of his career I was a big Nibali fan, I guess I’m just less emphatic about the differences between their skills and wonder if Pog’s prowess in all other areas might hide that his bike handling is one of his strongest suits. But crashing in front of Pidcock at Strada I assume is going to carry more weight that anything else currently – so maybe the question is who had/has better skills between Nibali and Pidcock? How an earth do you call that one?
@oldDAVE, as for Nibali I was rather thinking his win at Asolo, the Umbrail descent, the Córdoba stage at Vuelta 2011 (team move, victory for teammate Sagan), the Porto Sant’Elpidio stage (again Sagan for the stage, this time Nibali got the overall with this move), the Appennino he won alone broadening his advantage down the Bocchetta, the (in)famous Agnello descent, the way he left behind Alaphilippe, not the tamest descender himself, at Lombardia, the descent from Trebbio under the rain for his first ever win, leaving behind two huge descenders as Bettini and Cunego… in all the above, Nibali wasn’t probably “the physically strongest man in the race”, maybe sometimes not even one of the top 2-3, but he made a *decisive winning move out of pure handling skills*. What’s even more important, they were all memorable, it’s like watching it and then remembering after years, even when they were ‘secundary’ sport events, because what was shocking was precisely “how”. Maybe I’ve even… forgotten… something which got less memorable to me personally, but even so, it’s like 1 out of 8 victories in his whole career!
In Pescara (the day Hansen won and swore “As God is my witness, the Giro won’t run any rainy stage again!”) he also impressed, despite crashing and not making a selection over most – but it was key to put Wiggins’ ambitions to an end. And what about the sterrati 2010 stage when he saved single-handedly Basso’s Giro bid?
Seriously, no term of comparison with Pogi… despite the latter being extremely good, too. Most of Nibali’s crashes came when taking extreme risks (also note that Rio was about really peculiar circumstances of asphalt/humidity/dirt which took a heavy toll in AVV’s case, too, her herself a very good bike handler), whereas Pogačar’s looked sometimes “unforced”. I also remember Pogi struggling in moving through the field both at the 2019 Vuelta and 2020 TDF, but that was probably due to lack of experience mainly.
But, whatever, CA summed it up before me, I now see. And I also see your comment, where I find several points I can agree with.
Pidcock vs. Nibali? Mmm hard to say, but as a superficial impression, and considering “out of road race” elements, too (as with Nibali), I’d go with Pidcock right now. Yet, it’s clearly about shades of the same colour, while Pogi looks for now a different step of the ladder. In fact, as for your “he’s strong you don’t notice his handling skills”, well, despite being so strong, he has already faced several occasions when making a selection out of handling skills would have been opportune for him, and some of them he even tried but didn’t succeed (others he didn’t even try). No need for a list, but I think I could provide it if sorely needed 😛
This feels like the biggest news ever.
I’ve stopped my day and am close to tears.
Hard to put into words how excited I am – but hopefully bringing childish fanboy crush vibes to a niche cycling blog of hardened procycling nerds is enough carry a wash of euphoria through the comment section.
Now back to chatting about crank lengths?
LOL – I don’t know if you’re being sarcastic or not, but I can’t wait. Tadej battles and goes for it and in my opinion, best case scenario is he comes 2nd with falls because then you know he’s going for it in 2026, and 2027 and 2028 etc.
He wants to win every single bike race on the planet PLUS come first or second in the Tour.
You have to respect that. Of course the team has to let him do this, he’s proven he will be prepared for July… plus, he isn’t a lock to win in July so he brings a lot of value by winning all season long.
Be interesting to know what the accident stays are for PR va the TdF – latter is crazy dangerous too: how many GC contenders have crashed out over the years? I say good for TP – why not do it? On the assumption that’s what the team, etc are worried about
I can’t help but think MvdP isn’t losing much sleep about this announcement after MSR.
The UAE question does loom large: how much longer will the rest of the team be content for table scraps while their leader gets to go for it whenever he desires?
Out of interest who is affecting by going for PR?
Molano was 76th last year, Navarez hasn’t contested PR, Wellens finished 15th the first time he raced last year but that’s a long way from beating MVDP, which leaves really only Nils Politt?
Politt has been quite vocal in his praise for Pog recently and seems firstly aware of his role in the team and (given he has no sprint) the large slice of luck he needs to win big a classic let alone a Monument. I even wonder if he’ll be happy now to have the leadership role at E3 (where he finished 7th last year) and maybe even have a chance now to get lucky playing Pog’s foil at Roubaix with the possibility to sneak off while the favourites watch each other similar to Terpstra in 2014?
Obviously you’d expect MVDP, Pog and WVA to be lightyears ahead by the finale, in which case Politt might reasonably say to himself he was never in the fight in the first place?
And should he get angry (which I doubt), the brutal truth is likely that a strong rouleur for the Tour is far easier to replace for UAE than a generational talent rewriting the cycling history books?
Beyond that – many of the riders you might worry about getting bugged by Pog’s voraciousness I actually feel are doing the complete opposite – many have won more than they ever did before UAE (Yates, Almeida) and have been given more opportunities than they probably expected when signing, some of which they’ve failed to grasp which would make any objection to Pog’s demands sound a little hollow?
Ayuso and maybe soon Del Torro and Jan Christen are the three who will possibly have to move on to get further opportunities – but all three are young enough to defer to Pog currently as they’ve yet to truly prove themselves, so it would be surprising if much bad blood is being stored up at this point? If one of the three improves to be a true adversary to Pog at the Tour then they have a question but that’s a long way off right now.
I actually do not see any UAE question looming?
They have the best rider, they are currently the most successful team, they just need to keep Pog happy and well supported and let the good times roll?
I agree with you regarding the chance of the other UAE riders for Roubaix but don’t forget Florian Vermeersch. Still young and he has already been second once and not “à la Silvan Dillier”…
Totally agree about Politt – complete pro, and knows he is good, but he isn’t even close to the level of MVdP.
Plus, Tadej will need 1-2 teammates to last as long as possible with him into this race…. and the responsibility to chase in this race falls on the other teams, not UAE. Politt and Florian won’t have to burn their matches. They have to keep Tadej locked on MVdP’s wheel, which means that all 3 of them are following the wheels.
This isn’t MSR where UAE is ripping up the playbook on the Cipressa – this is more of a chess match.
Wellens is a real pro too and he can help with depth too.
Sharp analysis oldDAVE. Seems bang-on to me.
The other riders’ salaries, while not completely transparent, amount to something greater than table scraps, I reckon.
Exactly. Many riders have been happy to ride in big teams, being well paid, and giving up their chances to do so.
And how many UAE riders are giving up all that much? Not too many Kwiatkowskis amongst their one-day riders. (And I’d say only Ayuso currently looks like he could possibly win a grand tour.)
If Pogi is racing the Spring classics then he is not racing the one-week stage races. This means that the GC riders at UAE have more than enough opportunities during the season. And none of them can reasonably expect to challenge Vingegaard at the Tour. Nobody at UAE can believe they have a chance at the hilly classics (but Hirschi left to get his opportunities). The big question is how many UAE riders hoped for their chance in the cobbled classics, especially Roubaix. Florian Vermeersch particularly must have felt he had a chance to lead here, and an outside chance of victory.
I would still make Pog slight favourite for Flanders, making Roubaix a mouthwatering best of three finale between him and MvDP.
Win or lose, Pogacar’s apperance in the major classics should be applauded. There have been few riders over the generations who can win or compete succesfully in one day as well as three week events.
Hat tip to a true competitor.
I think the fascinating thing about Roubaix is that sometimes it can be about sensing a moment in a race…and Pogi has incredible racing instincts. Look at DvB winning a few years ago.
I do however still expect MvdP to stomp and win because he looks imperious ATM.
Whatever about Pog’s race instincts (and I’m not so sure – a lot of times his tactics just come down to deploying his crazy level of advantage in the legs and just taking off and riding everyone off the wheels; if it comes to tactical battles he often spends too much time on the front), MvdP is one of the finest at forcing and using opportunities, and likely has the beating off Pog on that front.
Will he race every monument this year?
Unless he has got bored of Liege and Lombardia you would have to presume he will.
Even barring crashes and injuries, Lombardia is still a tough call. I guess he might try anyway to go for an absolute record-breaking 5 Lombardia *in a row*, but, uff, TDF + Vuelta + Worlds + Lombardia… after such a Spring?
Perhaps he should consider skipping the Vuelta, although a reasonable Vuelta is an excellent prep for the Worlds. But will the Vuelta be reasonable if Vingo is there? And will the Worlds be… there, after all?
Lots of question marks, which matters a lot for an athlete who’s been racing painstakingly studied – albeit loaded – calendars.
However, apparently, according to some close sources, the team hasn’t given up on persuading him last minute *not to race* Roubaix, even if after this announcement I frankly don’t know what can they come up with.
We can be excused for forgetting after the dazzling 2024 season, but both in 2021 and 2023 (to a way lesser extent in 2022) he arrived at the end of the season a bit low on his Duracell battery. Out of the 7-10 races he took on after the TDF each year, he won… “only” Lombardia, and both times leaving the impression he had to be more astute than just a brute, probably *not being* the strongest on the day.
Of course… several of those other races were tackled as a mere prep, even with instrumental long range attacks; in some of them he clearly supported teammates; others can be considered a success and an example of great form even if he didn’t win (Olympics, Superworlds). Yet, watching the races, you felt clearly he was lacking top shape, as confirmed by the ITT results (not even in absolute terms – just comparing with 2022). All in all, it’s safe to assume that he won that couple of Lombardia because it’s the perfect race for him and because he’s a great competitor, after all, not just a genetic freak.
It’s equally manifest that he went a solid step up in 2024, and yet I believe that even in this new dimension the above-sketched programme might be an issue. Much will depend on rivals, of course, i.e. if Evenepoel, Vingegaard (???) or, say, Van Aert, Hirschi (in-home Ayuso?) could ever be able to be (in a different way) the sort of menace which Roglič or Alaphilippe represented some years ago – which they aren’t currently. I suspect we’ll need to wait for some new faces, if any of them can go through a proper further evolution, dunno, Van Eetvelt, Gregoire, Tulett, Brenner/Brennan, Sheffield etc.
I think there is a good chance that Pogi does not race the Vuelta. This will happen, I think, if he has a very tough fight in the Tour: he seems to have more interest (my impression) in defending his rainbow bands and winning Lombardia than winning the Vuelta. On the other hand, if he wins the Tour easily, then the Vuelta becomes very likely. In any case, the final decision will only be made at the end of July.
+1
Re: Politt: I can’t help imagining him winning like DeVolder did in Flanders (twice), attacking solo with the group paralysed by the presence of Pog (Boonen), who is clearly frustrated that he can’t be seen to assist in the chase of a team-mate?
Suddenly, we have a Nils who is very happy the Tadej is riding…
Well I’m delighted that the MSR smirk I received from Pogi has turned into reality, LOL. I don’t think this race suits him at all, I think it introduces tremendous risk for the remainder of the season, and… I can’t wait to see what he tries to uncork on the rest! If Mattieu gets the better of him it’s gonna sting. These guys are racers before millionaires.
Roubaix Revenge sounds like a good headline!
It definitely feels like a classic spring is in the offing. You’d have Pogacar a slender favourite for Flanders (not by much at all based on last weekend) and MvdP maybe a clearer favourite for Roubaix. But he won’t have it all his own way, which will be a pleasant change. UAE are reasonably strong in the classics but I feel Alpecin-D have a particularly strong team for Roubaix with Philipsen, G Vermeersch, Dillier and an entire squadron of cx riders to call on, including Tibor Del Grosso. It’ll certainly be interesting.
You’d think in Roubaix it will be a role reversal to last weekend (and probably Flanders) where MvdP was having to absorb repeated blows from Pogacar. In Roubaix I’d expect MvdP to be very much on the front foot (to mix up my sporting metaphors) and Pogacar for once being in a position where he has to cling on.
I’m hopeful that van Aert is at full strength and can make it (at least) a three-horse race.
I’d count myself as a bit of a Van Aert fan. I think whilst he is a little way short of his 2020-2023 peak, Mvdp and Pogacar have moved on several notches in the meantime. I’d love him to challenge for and win Flanders and Roubaix, but I fear it aint happening. Not this year anyway. But we shall see how he goes in E3.
Yeah, I’m not convinced either. I think he blunted his talents working as a domestique for GC riders, like many before him.
Or by riding cross and crashing so much. It’s my biggest recent disappointment in cycling that he has not been up to snuff of late. He’s just one of my favourite riders to watch.
And WvA is off the pace today in E3. Bummer.
@cp
Can’t see any clear correlation between his CX investment and road results. In 2020 reduced CX meant hugely improved road results, but then CX was back in 2021 with the double of racing days (of course, still half of when it was his main sport – figures totally comparable to MvdP) and no apparent harm could be detected. 2022 had a bit less CX race days but way more intensity, again with no negative impact on the road activity. Same intentions for 2023 but a slight decline in both, then reducing further more the CX races didn’t look to help the following year. As for crashing, I don’t think that’s the major issue in his case. The shift in performance level was much significant than what could be expected because of those crashes.
Anyway, all the above means nothing if he achieves Ronde or Roubaix. In cycling sometimes things don’t end up being as obvious as they look now after the E3.
Have to admit but I didn’t want to be a doomer… I didn’t think WVA had a chance even before E3 today. Unless he’s bluffing or tired from altitude, I expect him to be nowhere near MVDP/POG come Flanders/Roubaix. To me, he’s was losing regularly to both MVDP/POG in last few years even before his powers started to seemingly wane in the last year, and even more so since the crash last year. He’s been very unlucky with crashes and occasional bad tactical decisions, but whatever the cause I’d don’t see him on MVDP/POG’s level any longer nor for me has been been for quite a while. Whether he can bounce back who knows, but if he does he needs to exceed his previous level by quite a way.
I would say he has been on their level sporadically. There have been moments in a few Tours de France, that Tour of Britain he won and the classics in the autumn after covid off the top of my head where he was very very good indeed. The difference is he didn’t consistently win one day races when he was at his best, he usually found a way to come second. And he has probably never been as relentlessly, dominantingly consistent as either MvdP or Pog. Especially not now, probably nobody other than Merckx and maybe Coppi have though. They’ve gone stratospheric. Also, he was and alway has been at his best in stage races.
I also feel a bit sorry for Mads Pedersen. He has an excellent palmares but in any other generation we’d probably be comparing him to the greats.
I agree with what you’re saying, but I think one can only say that MvdP has been relentlessly, dominatingly consistent in the monuments, where he’s 7 for 19. Subtract those races and his record shows that he’s been extremely selective about the races he enters, with 30-47 road race days per year and a substantial percentage of those days in second and third tier races. His apparent strategy of going all-in on just a few major races a year, while either skipping the rest or using races for tune up, has clearly paid handsome dividends in the very biggest one-day races. His record in other major one-day races looks to me about on par with WvA’s record, which is quite good, but far from relentlessly dominating. Pogacar (and Merckx and a few others) were indeed relentless and dominating, in far more races and and a much wider range of races. That’s to take nothing away from MvdP, but I don’t think he’s on a par with Pogacar as a road racer.
Just to add the sort of negative observation which oldDAVE is sorely missing, what a shame the way De Panne went down. What was an extremely interesting and peculiar case of combining Belgian racing with a final GC to keep an eye on… is now a pale and frankly unnecessary copy-paste of Scheldeprijs, carnage included (uhmmm and as a mere side note, “safety” anyone?).
I don’t know what anyone else thinks, but I feel like any kind of sprint stage/race is a major crashfest nowadays. It feels very rare to see a full peloton come stampeding into the finish and nobody go down. The final 3km or so of De Panne yesterday was a pretty tough watch, people were going down almost constantly. There’s obviously the speed, and the street furniture as factors. But also feels like a good proportion of the riders main thought isn’t where they are going, it is on making sure their sprinter/train is on their wheel. You have riders looking about, riders pulling off and slowing down… its total carnage.
And yes the old 3 days of De Panne was a really interesting race in the week before Flanders, rather than the E3 carbon copy Dwars Door.
Yes, it’s a matter if degrees. Yesterday was extreme and didn’t look to be just on riders, more structural. Isn’t the UCI and others having a look on the course? Is it accepted as “traditional” as in Scheldeprijs, even if this race as it is now isn’t traditional at all?
However, I also feel that things are going worse, studies being carried out will tell more; tech probably to be blamed (no matter what “reviews” say, I’ve ridden “next gen” aero-light-rigid bikes and the handling isn’t even close to “all around” carbon bikes from the late ’10s – they’re incredibly much faster over 40 km/h, yes, and they’re generally way worse in “guidabilità”, terribly so; my impression is of “unpredictable reactions”, but that’s probably down to my personal scarce use. And, should we say it?, whatever the strange reasons behind that, disk brakes didn’t improve safety…). I also have the feeling that having lots of younger athletes around, well, takes away experience from the peloton. Some handling skills come with genetics or general early neuromotive formation, others are learnt on the ground.
The first studies tend to lay the blame on riders, but I’m skeptical, because the tech isn’t really included as a differential factor, it gets implicitly “incorporated” in – guess what? – … rider behaviour.
The commentary touched upon the fact that De Panne is normally a windy race, which splits into small groups, and therefore doesn’t normally have the same dangers as we saw this week.
It’s not a race I typically watch, or can remember watching in the past, so no idea if this is true?
But if it is true, then that does create a tricky situation, as how much should (or can) the organisers legislate for unusual weather conditions?
Most any crash comes down to operator error.
It’s not the bikes, the brakes, the tires or the frame. Those guys ride those bikes all day all the time. They know how the bike is going to react.
If you or me rode the same course,
We would be going slower and I bet we’d be fine.
Whether it’s lack of experience, lack of respect for the others or whatever. It’s not the bikes.
Just slow down when it is necessary…
And of course only when necessary.
There’s the rub.
That’s how it’s always been, so why the generalised feeling (still to be confirmed by clear figures) of more crashing?
To put it otherwise, of course your POV is the same of the UCI research. But it’s a weak POV, as it leaves us with the same question: why do the operators are apparently incurring in more mistakes?
From my experience of riding slab sided aero bikes and deep section wheels they are prone to sudden, jerky little movements compared to thin tubes and ordinary wheels. In my experience this happens when wind/air catches them or sort of ‘lets go’ of them. For example, when riding a TT bike there is a split second when you get passed at close quarters by a lorry/bus or other large vehicle and it feels like you getting sucked into the side of it, then it passes and you are ‘released’ from its airflow. I’m pretty sure, without ever being able to quantify or prove it, that this and similar effects will happen to aero road bikes (basically a tt bike with drop bars) with air pressure changes in and around the peloton, when you pass buildings, when you pass openings in hedges etc etc. All while going faster, while trying to look for your teammates and with some knobhead shouting in your ear to move up!
Thats just my thoughts on it.
@Richard S Agreed, aerofoil shaped have non-linear dynamics in response to changing apparent wind. E.g. they can create more ‘lift’ as angle of attack increases and then suddenly stall, shedding all the lift suddenly.
Any kind of sprint stage/race is a major crashfest. Indeed.
Apologies for repeating myself, but I think Pogacar needs to work on his sprinting tactics. In M-SR, MVDP went to the left, and the other two didn’t follow and sit on his wheel. That let him start the sprint without them drafting him.
I think that’s why he started his sprint early – because they weren’t on him.
A lack of sprinting nous by the other two?
Hopefully, Ganna is also doing P-R.
Pogacar has shown this before – in the year he lost to MVDP in the Ronde (and the following riders in the end).
In fairness, I strongly suspect MVDP was going to win the M-SR sprint anyway.
Massive respect for Pogacar for doing this race.
I think he threw it away on the Poggio when he used up too much of what he needed for the final. After the attack where he gapped MvdP only to be blocked by the motorcycles, it looked like the red mist descended and he started riding desperately instead of switching to tactics for contesting a sprint.
Perhaps a case of inexperience from the team with this sort of race? The sporting director should have been in his ear telling him to calm down and save everything for the finishing straight.
MvdP rode smartly and had the most left in the tank for the sprint, which is what usually matters the most at the end of a 250km+ race like the monuments or world championship.
The myth of Pog being blocked by a moto is perpetuating.
7.5km to go, you can see that although the moto is close, Pog never slows down for it – he never gets closer than a metre to it. MVDP catches him after that because he has more power to get out of the hairpin.
I suspect that regardless of what he did on the Poggio, Pog was always likely to lose a sprint to MVDP, and he knows it. Dropping him on the climb was his best bet.
With all due respect, I’ll take the conclusion of the race’s 2012 winner and current commentator Simon Gerrans that Pog was blocked over your opinion that he was not.
I agree that it’s true that MvdP might have closed down that attack eventually, even if it was mowing him down on the flat run in after the descent. But we’ll never know.
ICBW, but I don’t see how weight – of itself – is of benefit in P-R. What would be of benefit is absolute _raw power_, to drive through the cobbles and achieve and maintain enough speed to skim over them as much as possible, rather than rattle into each of them.
I think the common wisdom that weight matters for P-R might just be people using weight as a proxy for “raw power” – bigger, heavier riders just naturally have more power skinnier ones, even if the latter have better W/kg. I think this proxy falls apart with Tadej, cause he clearly has incredible raw power too, equivalent to many bigger riders (and hence, absolutely phenomenal W/kg).
Not an expert, but wouldn’t your weight help to “transmit” raw power to the ground, as in better grip? Which is why you shouldn’t take the weight away from the back wheel going out of the saddle when you attack on any kind of cobbles (Pogi has great skills in seated attacks, of course). As I said, I’m far from sure about the physics of it all, just an idea.
Besides, but this is more complicated and just a superficial suggestion, P-R looks more a race of “physical inertia” as opposed to “violent accelerations” (all in relative terms, of course, and partly due to the above), that is, you bring an energy as a moving body which is greater with greater weight; any “obstacle” or “hindrance” not dependant on weight will take away from that absolute total value a lesser share than it happens to lighter athletes. Which is why in the wind between two athletes with similar aerodynamics, the lighter one will usually suffer more. Now, most effects related to irregular terrain are probably weight/energy dependant as a consequence of action/reaction so those wouldn’t count, but others maybe aren’t, and they’d work against lighter athletes.
Possibly an element of that to it. But I didn’t think spinning tyres was an issue over the cobbles. Maybe the odd time an extra 10% of weight might let a rider continue to drive on, where a rider beside or behind him has a little skip of the wheel – but I don’t think it’s that often, I think generally they have enough grip. I think the issue on the cobbles is just that the more power you have, the faster you can go, and the faster you go over the cobbles the smoother you make them for yourself (skimming over them thanks to inertia, rather than the wheel falling in between the gaps) and the less power you waste (proportionally).
I think that’s why Pog has done well in the past. He has that raw power to match bigger riders. So I think the weight thing isn’t quite of the importance people think.
Spinning tyres is usually countered by riding in a larger gear than would normally be selected for that particular speed/gradient combination on a smooth road.
A larger gear means the rider has to develop their power using more torque multiplied by a lower cadence (advantage to the bigger riders) which will result in an unloaded drivetrain to spin up compared to riding in a lower gear where the rider is multiplying lower torque and higher cadence.
Add in the last couple of decade’s worth of advances in frames, wheels and most importantly tyres, and pretty well any rider should be able to handle the cobbles if they just put in the work to add it to their skillset.
Pogačar has excellent handling skills in all other areas, so I don’t see him losing Roubaix in the cobbled sectors.
Advances in frames, wheels and especially tyres serve to benefit not only the racers less experienced and less familiar with the pave, but also those who already excel across it.
The slow might get faster, but the fast get faster too.
Correction:
… which will result in an unloaded drivetrain taking longer to spin up compared to riding in a lower gear …
Oh, just to be clear, cause I mentioned inertia (“skimming over them thanks to inertia”). That doesn’t mean more inertia of itself is what is the /cause/ of helping. Whether it’s a heavy or a light rider, their bike will fall into the gaps at the same rate – that’s ‘g’, the rate of acceleration. What allows the rider to ‘skim’ more over the cobbles (i.e., not fall down as much in the gaps before the tyre hits the next cobble) is the horizontal speed. The faster the horizontal speed, the less time there is for the bike to fall.
The key to that speed is absolute power, and – at the rate pro riders go – power-to-drag. So – to circle back – I guess there is a benefit for bigger riders, as they can have more power, and more power to drag, and hence more speed.
However, Pog obviously has great power to drag too.
rate of accelleration? Sigh… just “acceleration”, i.e. rate of change of speed. (rate of change of acceleration would be “jerk”).
The “into the wind” thing: I think that comes down to power-to-drag, not inertia.
The frontal area of a human does not vary hugely with skinniness, but the power does. So given 2 riders with similar skeletal structures, but different weights, the lighter rider could well have lower absolute W (less muscle), higher W/kg, but lower W/frontal area. So the lighter rider wins on the climbs, but suffers on the flat into wind.
Also, as riders get bigger (taller) their frontal area does not increase at the same rate as their weight. Consider the formulae for the volume of a cylinder and how it increases as you linearly increase width and height, the volume increases with the square of the width – in other words, mass of the rider can increase supra-linearly with the size of the rider. Power increases with mass. So power (potential) will increase supra-linearly with bigger rider.
It’s power-to-drag that favours the heavier rider on the flat, not inertia.
As I understood it, we were discussing the factors that possibly disfavour the lighter rider on the cobblestone sectors – and not the factors that favour the heavier (and more powerful) rider on flat courses in general.
gabriele brought in speed on the flat as a related factor to his theory on inertia being the difference (“Which is why in the wind between two athletes with similar aerodynamics, the lighter one will usually suffer more.”), I was just dealing with that on its own in that comment.
That’s the basic and I think we all agree about that (and, coincidentally, that’s a factor in Roubaix, too).
But I was speaking specifically of *wind*, not as a wording for riding against air resistance. That’s also a function of drag, although not the usual front one (save for pure head wind). But what’s interesting is that’s a force operating on your system which as such isn’t strictly proportional to your speed/watts/weight. To put it differently, imagine two rider who’re going the spame speed, separated in space, in the same wind. If they stop pedalling, who’ll be halted before? I’d say the lighter one, because of inertia. So that also means there’s a different amount of energy for unit of time each of them has to make for, even when they’re pedalling keeping speed at the above conditions. This is just a mental experiment of sort to try to express what I mean, no real race dynamics whatsoever, of course.
And the whole idea was intended to express the mere suspect that there might be microfactors *akin to that* at work, not that I was speaking of wind specifically. I wasn’t thinking in any specific, just conjecturing.
I agree with you, as I had said above, that all the bump and wobble thing might have the same factors at play, hence meaning they “nullify” in a sense (exactly what you explained).
Finally, spinning wheels *is* an issue both on wet and on dusty cobbles, and I agree with the points made by DaveRides above.
The race is rarely won on the cobbles, usually only lost.
Handling the cobbles is more about technique than heavy/light/etc, any rider who is determined to put in the work can handle them. Look at the way that Nibali decided that the cobble stage in the 2014 Tour de France was his chance to put time on Froome (who wasn’t a threat anyway, he crashed out well before the first cobbled sector) so he did the work on the cobbles ahead of the Tour and eventually came out with 3rd on the stage, ahead of all the riders in the field who had ever or would ever get a podium place at Flanders or Roubaix.
The advantage of outright power vs power/weight is about the other 80% of the race not on the cobbles – it’s a long flat race and therefore power to punch through the air is the key.
Pogačar definitely has the work ethic to do the preparation so he can get through the cobbles without incident. Where he has a genuine disadvantage is in the final where I just don’t see him having the firepower to come over the top of riders like MvdP after 255km of racing.
I don’t think stage 5 of the 2014 Tour should be considered particularly relevant to Paris Roubaix. It was more than 110km shorter and contained only seven secteurs (two were removed late due to the wet conditions). From memory Carrefour de l’Abre was the only five star secteur, and was placed more than 60km from the finish.
Nibali put in a great ride but I doubt it would translate to Paris Roubaix. De Ronde in 2018, where Terpstra discarded Nibali like an empty gel wrapper was perhaps more representative.
I’d agree that it’s to be seen what Nibali might have ever done in the cobbled Monuments. I suspect that, in order to podium, he frankly lacked both the very top sheer power (he always was the sort of athlete which “loses less power when things get hard” rather than having huge absolute wattages as Pogi), and lacked the violent punch, too – his attacks were based on timing not burst. Besides, he tended to take too long a time to find peak form after the winter, although he was then able to bring it on later into the season.
That said, your arguments above are quite void, precisely because a more selective race would have for no reason played against a top shape Nibali, quite the other way around. And the Ronde example, if anything, also shows that Nibali, as proven elsewhere several times, had the capacity to read the decisive moment of a race, which in those Classics is paramount.
What’s even more clear is that 2018 33 yo Nibali (in his absolutely *worst by far* season 2009-2019 according to PCS, i.e., 24 to 34, despite winning Sanremo!) isn’t a meaningful comparison for anything at all, even less for his potential chances in his prime seasons. In fact, battling as a peer with Cancellara and Sagan (and Gilbert, Ballan, Pozzato…) at the Sanremo 2011-2012 was more telling than he himself winning through cunning and perfect management of effort in 2018. Actually, if one checks Sanremo podia (not just winners), it can be noticed that from mid 00’s on it became a solid albeit not univocal predictor of pavé potential, unlike it was in the 90’s and at the beginning of the millenium.
All I’m saying is that Nibali’s great performance over a race less than two thirds the distance of Paris Roubaix and with a third the pave is barely relevant to Pogacar racing the monument to win, much less a predictor of his chances.
By the way, I have a feeling oldDAVE will just *love* the way this debate has gone… oh, the always optimist thought we’d stick to crank length
^_______^
I am only guessing but that guess would be that the bike might bounce around a bit less under a heavier rider.
That would be my guess, too: when your rear wheel is in the air, none of the power you generate (during that period of flight) propels you and your bike forward – and a 10 kg lighter rider will have such moments more often and/or such moments will last longer.
Not much, but enough to make a difference.
(Grip or lack of it may become an issue on steep gravel uphills.)
Great – then we can enjoy G-W instead.
E3 was great – and GW seems to be even more open.
And any race without the Slovenian horror is a good race.
Not that hard fir GW to be “more open” than E3, as the latter wasn’t at all! Mathieu simply crushed them all and had the raced sealed with a single attack, after closing on one or two, then sticking to the foregone conclusion, like, nearly one hour before crossing the finish line…
^____^
But, yes, it was a good race, I enjoyed it.
His team failed him in MSR. For PR he needs to suprise attack 80k – 100k out and TT to the win. Nobody cooperates anymore.
They did … just as they did the year before. I saw that Vine had a win elsewhere and was wondering why he wasn’t included.
Because he’s usually terrible in positioning and moving through the peloton, understandably