Tadej Pogačar is getting close to winning Milan-Sanremo but as many riders know and plenty have experienced – just ask Michael Matthews – close is one thing, victory quite another.
For years an attack on the Cipressa hasn’t worked, the last person to make a move on the penultimate climb that stuck was Gabriele Colombo in 1996. In fact it’s been years since anyone even tried. The pace has been so high that nobody has even moved, either unable or unwilling.
Meet Tadej Pogačar. Of all the riders he can make the difference on this climb, it where he has a real advantage over all the others.
Easier said than done of course but that’s what is a blog is for. We can imagine a scenario with UAE barging into the foot of the climb with a train of riders to launch their leader. Going into the climb in position matters so much because if someone is 40 metres down the line it’s ruinous to try and claw it back.
The early 6% gradient starts to sting and they continue the pace, the field lined out. Tim Wellens takes over and gives it everything.
Just after halfway comes the steepest part of the climb but it’s first on a long straight ramp, although if the wind is up this can be exploited. If not then soon come some bends to stretch out the field even more. Either way it’s within this kilometre that the attack has to be made.
All along UAE have placed a rider on Pogačar’s wheel. Jhonatan Narváez could be ideal, here punchy enough to be able to follow up to this point – he’s one of the few to have beaten Pogačar in 2024 and at 1m74 tall a compact wheel to follow.
Before reaching the spot where Pogačar is going to move, Narvaez eases a touch, creating a small gap. If a rival tries to come around, the moment they come out of Narvaez’s slipstream and are in the wind the Ecuadorian can accelerate a little, leaving the rival dangling in the wind for longer.
Then comes the big attack itself. A double move. Isaac Del Toro launching, a lead-out sprint for Pogačar who follows before making his move, an all or nothing attack. While he can climb faster than most, his ability to accelerate uphill mean many simply don’t follow and he’ll rely on this to scare most from even trying. Besides at this point rivals are several wheels back, it’ll take even more W/kg to accelerate just to reach him.
The top part of the climb is really a balcony road across from Costarainera to Cipressa, a lone rider here has to hope there’s no concerted chase but by now everyone is ragged.
Then comes the worst part of it all, the descent. Taking 15 seconds over the top of the climb is one thing but give up five of these and the move could flop. It’s a descent you can learn and practice for. Pogačar’s descending isn’t his absolute weapon, see Strade Bianche for a recent example. But it’s not the place to go wild on either, everyone is lined out and time gaps tend to be the same at the top and the the bottom.
Once the descent is over there’s 8,994 metres from Aregai to Bussana and arodnd the Capo Verde to the foot of the Poggio. Watch the race and this part seems go by frantically but it’s still nine kilometres and for a lone rider the danger zone. But if Pogačar is away with 15 seconds who chases? Just asking this question gifts him five more seconds.
The UAE train up the Cipressa did not just launch Pogačar, it torched plenty of others. Teams hoping to have numbers find out they’re lacking. Maybe Jasper Philipsen and Mathieu van der Poel are there but they don’t have a team mate. Olav Kooij finds team mate Axel Zingle to chase while Jonathan Milan and Mads Pedersen see their colleague Jasper Stuyven hit the front. But Stuyven vs Pogačar? Advantage Slovenia.
Pogačar makes to the foot of the Poggio with 25 seconds but for him there are only 5.5km left in the race. For everyone else there’s 9.2km to the finish line. Why the difference? Because if Pogačar still has ten seconds at the top who will be able to catch him on the descent or in the streets of Sanremo? Now who else is left to chase? Filippo Ganna and Mathieu van der Poel know they must move early, leave it to the usual spot by the Madonna della Guardia and the closed-down fish restaurant that’s three quarters of the way to the top and it’s too late. But who wants to go first? It’s these moments of hesitation as much as Pogačar’s lead that make things happen.
Can Pogačar do it? He could and that’s the tale of Sanremo, you can write a story for how each starter might win. We’ll see on Saturday.
What a great write-up, I ended up all breathless and panting trying to follow Pogi’s wheel 😊
Excellent.
Great piece! Here is mine:
UAE has since last year learned that they cannot get rid of enough fast men on the Cipressa without depleting themselves for position fighting towards Poggio.
This year, Laengen and Novak string the peloton out towards the Cipressa, with Pogacar, Narvaez, Politt and Wellens in the wheels. On the Cipressa, Narvaez and Wellens do a hard but sensible pace to ensure their joker is intact. The joker is Politt, who will string the peloton out in the last K’s toward Poggio together with Wellens and Narvaez.
When they hit the Poggio, the peloton is single file. As soon as they are on the Poggio, Del Toro does an all out 500m vicious attack with Pogacar on his wheel. This duo creates enough air behind them, that when Del Toro’s turn is over, Pogacar can launch his own effort without anyone in his wheel.
Behind, the fast men and the classics riders are to far away to catch pogacar even with their best all out effort.
But of course this is all a fiction. Because we know that this year is for Pedersen 🙂
Watching Mads last week, I agree, it may be Mads year!
UAE need to hurt the sprinters legs on the last 3 hills to help TP. Or give TP a great leadout in the sprint.
I agree – he was looking like a monster in Paris-Nice. Would be good, and a touch ironic given all the focus on Pog when he was hiding in plain sight all along! But there are a few others who will want to have their say too.
He’s up for Sanremo and the way he was climbing was remarkable to the point of wondering what this means for Saturday, has he lost some sprinting speed in order to be able to make longer moves whether on the Poggio or the Paterberg?
I would imagine so – you generally can’t have your cake and eat it!
I’m not sure what the plan was last year as they were out of position, whether it was just to sap everyone on the Cipressa so that Pogačar could have more of an impact on the Poggio. It could well be this plan again. One factor for all or nothing on the Poggio is the wind direction. It’s less steep than the Cipressa and so being on a wheel counts for more, attacking is harder. But if there’s a breeze or more knowing where the shelter and exposed parts are can also be exploited in a race where the smallest differences can count.
It was not optimal last year for UAE for sure.
Funny how with Pogacar’s dominance, Milano – San Remo becomes even more exciting. It’s the only race where he can be challenged by more than one or two riders.
The wind forecast for Saturday afternoon, is for a light crosswind from the NE / right hand side for most of the Poggio, which means a slight headwind in a couple of the early parts of the climb.
It’s only a 5mph wind forecast, so won’t make much difference, but does add a small benefit to those in the wheel, and a small disadvantage to attackers.
Alpecin have three with speed who can handle a hill or two.
Good and very interesting read, as always thanks, but I just can’t see it.
If my maths is correct Pogacar could have 40 seconds at the end of the Cipressa descent, ride at 60km to the foot of the Poggio, and still be caught there if the peloton rides 65kph.
That’s essentially why there hasn’t been a successful attack from that distance for almost 30 years. For all the media focus on Pogacar I wouldn’t be surprised if MvdP, Ganna, Pedersen and Pidcock are as or more concerned about each other.
You’re the guy who says Father Christmas isn’t real… I’m not rooting especially for Pogačar but I would like to see a new way of racing. As we agree the flat coastal road is what makes it so hard, to stay away here and have a gap for the Poggio. But if the bunch does 65km/h, do they keep this pace up from Aregai to Bussana or does it drop at times? It’s this hesitation that could help.
If Father Christmas is real Pogacar will race Paris-Roubaix! Still don’t think he’d win if he does…
I didn’t research those speeds in any detail, but was interested to see what time gap could be closed by a chasing peloton averaging 5kph faster. Even 3kph closes c. 24 seconds over the 9km. I think that’s possible for a peloton chasing a single attacker.
What would be really interesting is a royal escape on the Cipressa containing Pogacar, MvdP, Pedersen, Ganna, Pidcock and a few others. It could arise from a split under pressure from UAE but I’m not sure many would ride with Pogacar, it just makes it easier for him to escape up the Poggio later.
In 48 hours we’ll know whether Santa is real after all…!
What your maths don’t take into account (besides the supposed speeds not being accurate, i.e. they’re closer to peak speeds rather than the more meaningful average speeds for the same section…) is that speeds/times can vary a lot depending on a number of factors, some of them tactical and inter-related.
For example, in 2023 the peloton “only” averaged some 55 km/h in the flat 8.9 kms between a pretty fast Cipressa (not as fast as 2024, yet probably the fastest since 2001) and an incredibly fast Poggio (record breaking, tough the record would fall again in 2024). As a term of comparison, on a harsh wintry and windy day in 2014 the peloton rode at some avg. 59 km/h (asterisked by some issues with the data shared by De Marchi, a bit slower if anything) to get some 40″ out of 50″ back from a 55 km/h lone riding Nibali, after a very slow Cipressa – for the main group, but Nibali wasn’t especially fast, either, as he also was saving energies for a fast flat section – and before an extremely slow Poggio (both climbing times comparable to late 80s); not slow enough to allow Nibali keep his then oh-so-slender advantage. It’s like the peloton had still kept the conditioning of those previous editions with Le Manie, plus the winter feeling probably enhanced by the snowy experience the year before. But that also meant that on the flat when in need to bring Nibali back, the peloton had the energies to dig deep… only to find themselves void for the Poggio. Kristoff won over Cancellara and Ben Swift.
As if it was a technical ITT of sort, it’s far from easy to know in advance what’s the most effective power distribution, even more so, in this case, because it’s a tactical scenario when the actions of many others matter a lot. And the wind, of course. Plus the psychological factor of having somebody in sight or not etc.
It’s lapalisse’ stuff to say that’s a complicated move. On a broad range of scenarios it hasn’t ever worked for nearly 30 years. But one must also consider that Pogačar is the sort of athlete which hasn’t been around for 40 or 50 years, too.
Plus, the set of data is biased by the assumptions and habits of the peloton itself, as we’ve seen on the Poggio… the race which was once “the sprinters’ Worlds”, now thanks to the more or less successful efforts through the years by Gilbert, Sagan, Nibali, Alaphilippe, MvdP, Pogačar… without any change of course, we read Merlier saying he won’t be in because he’s got no chance over the Poggio.
Checking De Marchi’s data from 10 years ago, you notice that overall avg. “wattage” (not the right concept but just to keep it short) through the last 60 kms or so is similar, it’s the distribution of effort which can be very different (interestingly, now much less watts are wasted in the first 4 hrs, be it thanks to aero bikes or because there’s less depth in terms of athletic quality across the pro peloton, so the break is weaker etc.).
In 2003, when Bettini got his Sanremo, popular wisdom was that it was absolutely impossible to attack from the Poggio.
I believe that now a number of conditions are different enough from the last decade to make it worth exploring different angles once more. Whether it’s going to work or not and after how many attempts it’s a different issue, of course.
Just remember MvdP and Remco commenting at the Worlds about Pogačar’s attack how “he just suicided himself – now it’s between us” etc.
Sounds an ideal scenario for Pidcock to steal the win 😉
Maybe UAE should launch one of their other riders on the Cipressa, hope that there’s some willing company, then see what the other teams do.
Milano-Sanremo is my favourite race of the year… but taking the approach that everything can be improved I would take out the Cipressa and replace it with the Pompeiana, which is closer to the Poggio. Its the gap between the Cipressa and the Poggio that kills any chance of a successful attack. For something like that to happen there would have to be a major breakdown in the chase, and in modern cycling with DS constantly screaming into earholes that isn’t going to happen. Sadly.
For a move to have a chance I think UAE would have to start their train on the Capi, nail it all the way into the foot of the Cipressa and set Pogacar off to go bezerk from there so he can use the full length of the climb to get as a big a gap as possible. I’d love to see them try.
I’d like to see some variety in the course, year by year. The current course is great, but once in a while they could add Pompeiana and/or Le Manie, while keeping Cipressa.
It’s the same with the Ronde course, it’s always a good idea to mix it up so that tactics don’t become stale (with the Ronde, they could do the old course every second year… but money talks).
I like the proposal, but I think you’ve missed a key element; with the strength UAE have, surely a better strategy would be to launch two riders, so Pogacar and either Narvaez, Wellens or Del Toro, and do a two-up TT along the coast road? They can then ride flat out for as long as possible up the Poggio before Pogacar launches.
But then our host wouldn’t get to update their “winning move distance from finish” table…;-)
By the way, why Pozzato’s finisseur move was labelled as “from 6 kms out”? I think I remember him attacking with Ballan on the Poggio, indeed, but then having been brought back before going long for the win in the very finale. Going by memory, I could be wrong… mostly remember rainbow-claded Boonen celebrating his teammate’s win, which I didn’t appreciate too much 😛 as I was rooting for Boonen himself, instead ROTFL
I think the strength of UAE is being vastly overestimated in the context of this race. Not Pogacar, of course, but the rest of his team. Ineos, Lidl-Trek and Alpecin won’t be giving much away and Visma, Red Bull and Groupama (almost) also have racers capable of matching the rest of UAE in Capi/Cipressa leadouts and attacks.
At least ten if not 20 racers are more than capable of marking Narvaez, Wellens or Del Toro into a Cipressa breakaway and anchoring the move as the peloton maintains the gap. Not all would, but it would only take two or three to doom the escape.
I think this is my favorite comment on this thread. It’s possible that Pogi is so much better than everyone else that he finds a way to get away, but I don’t see his team being able to blow up the race the way they can on steeper and longer hills.
I’d love to see him try this, but I think an even better method of securing victory might be for UAE to charge up the Cipressa in order to drop others/wear them out, and then continue along that 9km to the foot of the Poggio, and for Pog to go on the Pog. UAE didn’t manage to get themselves organised on the Cipressa last year, and that hampered Pog’s chances.
I’m a bit bored of him dominating races, but this race is one where he can’t dominate from too far out – if at all. And if he did it on the Cipressa, it would be legendary.
If Pidcock is in the race, he would be the archetype to take it via blinding descent from the Poggio – as he showed again in Strade Bianche, he is the very best descender.
I agree entirely with your middle paragraph. I can live without seeing him (or MvdP) riding alone for 2 hours to the conclusion of a bike race ever again. Except here..!
I think that with Pogačar it’s actually time to “make Turchino great again”… or perhaps better if we leave that to Remco 😀
“I’m a bit bored of him dominating races, but this race is one where he can’t dominate from too far out.”
Or can he?!
I just love the idea of him saying “I will attack on the Capi” and then actually doing it. A fantasy, but if there ever a rider that could. It would cause a… Capo Melee.
(I’ll get my coat)
It’d be interesting if Pogacar and Pidcock are out ahead and they go into the Poggio descent together. Pogacar would surely have Strade in his mind and be second guessing himself, Pidcock would be looking to push his limits and force Pog into a mistake.
Anyone but Mathews or Philipsen please.
I’d quite like to see Matthews win – he’s been that close so many times.
Is a lot of the dislike for Matthews purely down to the nickname, ‘Bling’? Yes, he’s a bit of a wheelsucker, but that’s his job.
Go Bling Go
That guy is class.
He could have been Gilbert, but instead he’s just Matthews.
A far more likely outcome is UAE don’t attack at all. Everyone waits to see when they’ll go… and they don’t. A seven man leadout on the Via Roma, they fan out in the last 100m, blocking the road to let their man cross the line and get all of this over with.
Alternative scenario, not sure how likely: Pogacar intends to reward a teammate with MSR and they’re being super-clever about it.
To counter any scenario in which you believe Pogacar plans to win, you have to stay glued to his wheel. It’s a sucker move to follow Narvaez, Wellens, etc. until Pogacar starts to bridge. Do that on the Poggio and they might be able to get enough of a gap.
So while Pogacar has a good chance, UAE has a great chance.
Given that Pogacar is probably going to be the leader in every other race he does and can almost win at will, he’s not giving up that much.
If this made sense for Alpecin last year, it makes even more sense for UAE this year.
There is no way Pogacar is giving away the Monument her must win for a valid comparison with Merckx.
According to my opinion…
Now we need equivalent IR articles laying out how the others could win though for so many it’s just to hang on the Pogacar and hope for a sprint. That covers Philipsen, Pedersen, Mathews and Kooij. The more complex question is how Ganna or Pidcock could win.
Finally, how odd to have Soudal-QS without a serious candidate for victory in such a race
Since everyone is just speculating in a safe space, what if UAE tried to blow the race apart on the Turchino? With the right teammates and selection, MAYBE the last 100km could be an entirely different race.
It’s just not steep enough for me, for illustration there’s a railway line that runs alongside most of it, a regular line and not some mountain railway. It’s a big ring climb and UAE would just self-sabotage as lots of rivals sit on their wheels.
But I’d like to see them try as it would reshape the race, and if they wanted to try perhaps it would be best to start halfway and then to use the descent as much as the climb to try and split it and have riders to try and press on once on the Via Aurelia coastal road.
The only race on the calendar worth watching because the result is not a foregone conclusion.
Great writeup. I would like to see them take the crowbar to the final and stick it to the usual contenders. Having said that, I would also like Mads to win 🙂
Extremely prescient post, even though some of the details played out differently!