Tadej Pogačar is getting close to winning Milan-Sanremo but as many riders know and plenty have experienced – just ask Michael Matthews – close is one thing, victory quite another.
For years an attack on the Cipressa hasn’t worked, the last person to make a move on the penultimate climb that stuck was Gabriele Colombo in 1996. In fact it’s been years since anyone even tried. The pace has been so high that nobody has been able to accelerate, or wanted to knowing if they took five seconds then they’d just get caught.
Meet Tadej Pogačar comes in. Of all the riders he can make the difference on this climb, it where he has a real advantage over all the others.
Easier said than done of course but that’s what is a blog is for. We can imagine a scenario with UAE barging into the foot of the climb with a train of riders to launch their leader. Going into the climb in position matters so much because if someone is 40 metres down the line it’s ruinous to try and claw it back.
The early 6% gradient starts to sting and they continue the pace, the field lined out. Tim Wellens takes over and gives it everything.
Just after halfway comes the steepest part of the climb but it’s first on a long straight ramp, although if the wind is up this can be exploited. If not then soon come some bends to stretch out the field even more. Either way it’s within this kilometre that the attack has to be made.
All along UAE have placed a rider on Pogačar’s wheel. Jhonatan Narváez could be ideal, here punchy enough to be able to follow up to this point – he’s one of the few to have beaten Pogačar in 2024 and at 1m74 tall a compact wheel to follow.
Before reaching the spot where Pogačar is going to move, Narvaez eases a touch, creating a small gap. If a rival tries to come around, the moment they come out of Narvaez’s slipstream and are in the wind the Ecuadorian can accelerate a little, leaving the rival dangling in the wind for longer.
Then comes the big attack itself. A double move. Isaac Del Toro launching, a lead-out sprint for Pogačar who follows before making his move, an all or nothing attack. While he can climb faster than most, his ability to accelerate uphill mean many simply don’t follow and he’ll rely on this to scare most from even trying. Besides at this point rivals are several wheels back, it’ll take even more W/kg to accelerate just to reach him.
The top part of the climb is really a balcony road across to Costarainera, a lone rider here has to hope there’s no concerted chase but by now everyone is ragged.
Then comes the worst part of it all, the descent. Taking 15 seconds over the top of the climb is one thing but give up five of these and the move could flop. It’s a descent you can learn and practice for. Pogačar’s descending isn’t his absolute weapon, see Strade Bianche for a recent example. But it’s not the place to go wild on either, everyone is lined out and time gaps tend to be the same at the top and the the bottom.
Once the descent is over there’s 8,994 metres from Aregai to Bussana and arodnd the Capo Verde to the foot of the Poggio. Watch the race and this part seems go by frantically but it’s still nine kilometres and for a lone rider the danger zone. But if Pogačar is away with 15 seconds who chases? Just asking this question gifts him five more seconds.
The UAE train up the Cipressa did not just launch Pogačar, it torched plenty of others. Teams hoping to have numbers find out they’re lacking. Maybe Jasper Philipsen and Mathieu van der Poel are there but they don’t have a team mate. Olav Kooij finds team mate Axel Zingle to chase while Jonathan Milan and Mads Pedersen see their colleague Jasper Stuyven hit the front. But Stuyven vs Pogačar? Advantage Slovenia.
Pogačar makes to the foot of the Poggio with 25 seconds but for him there are only 5.5km left in the race. For everyone else there’s 9.2km to the finish line. Why the difference? Because if Pogačar still has ten seconds at the top who will be able to catch him on the descent or in the streets of Sanremo? Now who else is left to chase? Filippo Ganna and Mathieu van der Poel know they must move early, leave it to the usual spot by the Madonna della Guardia and the closed-down fish restaurant that’s three quarters of the way to the top and it’s too late. But who wants to go first? It’s these moments of hesitation as much as Pogačar’s lead that make things happen.
Can Pogačar do it? He could and that’s the tale of Sanremo, you can write a story for how each starter might win. We’ll see on Saturday.
What a great write-up, I ended up all breathless and panting trying to follow Pogi’s wheel 😊
Excellent.
Great piece! Here is mine:
UAE has since last year learned that they cannot get rid of enough fast men on the Cipressa without depleting themselves for position fighting towards Poggio.
This year, Laengen and Novak string the peloton out towards the Cipressa, with Pogacar, Narvaez, Politt and Wellens in the wheels. On the Cipressa, Narvaez and Wellens do a hard but sensible pace to ensure their joker is intact. The joker is Politt, who will string the peloton out in the last K’s toward Poggio together with Wellens and Narvaez.
When they hit the Poggio, the peloton is single file. As soon as they are on the Poggio, Del Toro does an all out 500m vicious attack with Pogacar on his wheel. This duo creates enough air behind them, that when Del Toro’s turn is over, Pogacar can launch his own effort without anyone in his wheel.
Behind, the fast men and the classics riders are to far away to catch pogacar even with their best all out effort.
But of course this is all a fiction. Because we know that this year is for Pedersen 🙂