With plenty going on out there events in pro cycling seem pretty tame in comparison. But here are twelve predictions for the cycling season ahead…
Who wins the Tour de France? It’s still the central question in the sport and if there was a way of knowing this today you could derive a lot of other answers to related results and beyond too. Now making a prediction in early January for events in July would be foolhardy if it involved, say, investing. But for fun here goes… and right now it feels impossible to pick a Tour de France winner, today best guess says a close contest between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar but it’s a coin toss to pick between them. Many will have Pogačar first as he won so convincingly last summer and bossed the whole season but but go back a year with this logic you’d have picked Vingegaard a year ago. Since you’re reading wanting a name, well Pogačar then. What’s striking is that it’s already a two horse race in January which is a concern if one crashes or just gets Covid in summer so let’s hope the already-a-duel-scenario is hopelessly wrong and more contenders emerge.
Star riders will race less. Is it worth doing Dwars Door Vlaanderen if you want to win Roubaix or the Ronde? Loaded with hindsight but trends can start from random events. The prediction is some top riders will be submarine-like during the season, invisible for long stretches in part to avoid the crash risk. It’s nice if Jonas Vingegaard or Tadej Pogačar can win a week-long World Tour stage race but they’ve done it already so maybe just skip it to avoid disaster. This isn’t new, take Primož Roglic who has seen the full cycle, avoiding some races so as to reduce crash risk only to crash in the Tour de France where one conclusion was he needed to race more prior to hone his reflexes. But there’s another element to bolster the hypothesis: the congestion in top teams. Leaving a rider at home (or rather atop the Sierra Nevada or Teide) means someone else gets team leadership for a day or a week and so there’s a second win here for teams needing to keep their roster of riders content.
The sprinting spoils will be shared. Jonathan Milan is the most exciting prospect right now as the potential is all there, hulking power and he can do more too, watch for him in the classics as much as the Tour de France. Olav Kooij is on the up, very fast and versatile too, plus in a contract year. Biniam Girmay can win sprints and more too. Tim Merlier is a bit more of a specialist but should keep delivering while team mate Paul Magnier is promising too. Jasper Philipsen. And more. But because they’re all so good nobody will run away with the results this year and end the season as the top dog. Especially as the likes of Milan, Kooij and Merlier have to share resources with GC contenders at big races meaning they don’t get a full lead out train either. And even if Fabio Jakobsen can come back then he too will find team mates like Tobias Lund get a chance to ride the sprint train.
Women’s races get a rising audience. For all the pomp of the Tour de France Femmes, and the relaunch has been a success, the unsaid part is it’s seen some declining TV audiences (a peak audience in France of 3.3 million in 2022, 2.5 million for last summer’s Stage 8 thriller). But part of this can probably be attributed to the Olympics and summer sports-fatigue. Now back in its slot to take over when the men finish and the audiences will follow over and numbers pick up. The Tour matters of course but the trend should see more interest in the rest of the women’s calendar and this is where a lot of the growth will come. It’s not something to happen only during 2025 but the rise of women’s racing will start to displace some lesser men’s races.
XDS-Astana get relegated. They’re currently 4,717 points below 18th placed Cofidis. Win all three grand tours plus a Monument classic and they’d still be short, it sounds impossible? Actually not so. They’re not going to win a grand tour and they know it, but fourth place in ten 1.Pro races brings 1,000 points, almost as much as a grand tour and this kind of hustle can get them points galore. We’ll look at the numbers more closely soon. The idea is they’ve been on a shopping spree and signed a lot of good riders for this score often approach. But with this plan comes the problem, several signings are on one year deals and they’ll want to shine for their own reasons, namely to get a contract next year and this means riders treading on each other’s toes. Put simply the hypothesis is signing riders is necessary but not sufficient, delivering unity and performance is harder. The safer prediction to make would be it’ll be fun to watch this secondary contest as Astana have a chance, especially in case of a déconfiture at Cofidis which has lost its two top scorers and very reliant on Alex Aranburu and Emu Buchmann feeling at home from the start.
Arkéa-B&B Hotels get relegated too… but that’s the least of their worries. I’d rather not say it aloud but as this is a predictions post, alas the team looks doomed. The squad had to suddenly jettison several decent riders at the end of last year, like hot air balloonists throwing supplies overboard to stay airborne. The exit of these riders all but guarantees the team’s demotion but the question is whether they can survive beyond the year as if money is tight now this is a concern and what would happen upon relegation. The men’s World Team is the visible part but there’s a the women’s team and a a development team as well, it’d be a pity to see a structure that was trying to build up.
Tour wildcards are make-or-break. In French there’s the phrase un choix cornélien to mean a difficult choice or a dilemma. Which teams get invited to the Tour de France? There are two wildcards and three realistic picks between Tudor, Total Energies and Uno-X. Tudor with Julian Alaphilippe and Marc Hirschi look like a compulsory pick (and the company is sponsoring ASO events) so which squad gets the last pick? TotalEnergies look the weakest squad but they won a stage last summer with Anthony Turgis; Uno-X supplied “animation” but do they merit repeat invites? Both teams could be in peril without an invite, they crave the big audiences of July. The easiest solution would be to take an extra team but that only solves this question for a year, beyond that Q36.5 are on the up and so on. In short there’s a crunch coming for teams in the second tier and it applies to those wanting to start the Giro and Vuelta too.
Safety remains a contentious topic, divisive even. Jonathan Vaughter’s Twitter rage at Christian Prudhomme shows this, it was more of personal attack rather than enquiring about the substance. Only a tweet rather than a sermon but it highlights suspicion and distance rather than cohesion: people who ought to be on the same page appear to be reading different books. With teams, organisers and the UCI holding different ideas on the ways forward any progress will be slow here, and probably fraught at times too.
You know the maillot jaune, now get ready for the carton jaune as yellow cards will prove controversial. New for 2025 is the system of yellow cards where along with fines and other penalties, yellow cards can be issued. They won’t be brandished by a commissaire towering out of the sunroof, instead they’ll just get reported in the post-race bulletin (a document that’s often hard to find, even unpublished by organisers). Get two during a stage race and you’re out. So a sticky bottle here, a sideways drift there in a sprint or even sitting up to celebrate a team mate’s win and potentially that’s it, addio, adieu, adiós as a rider can be sent home. Crucially it’s not automatic and supposed to be brandished only for relating to safety but as it’s subjective expect debatable decisions.
Calendar reform is finally unveiled. This has been promised for years and always seems to be around the corner, only for each time things to stay the same. 2025 will finally see the plans unveiled. Pro cycling does have a jumbled calendar of events, confusing labels and more, so who would be against reform? Only once the fixes are announced then preferences get revealed and the plans should prove controversial as there are bound to be winners and losers.
Staying with the politics and admin David Lappartient remains at the UCI…at least until the autumn. The International Olympic Committee will pick a new president in March and cycling’s multitasker is a candidate but he won’t make it. He’s obviously good at the behind-the-scenes ways to woo a selectorate, that’s how he beat Brian Cookson to become UCI President in the first place. But the IOC is more way more political and there are several declared candidates already, including one with the implicit backing of the current chief. If so he’ll see out his current term as UCI President which comes to an end this September… but will he decide his work is done and make way for someone else? Some of this depends on whether the calendar reform prediction comes true.
Trying to think of tech changes and there’s not much in the pipeline, no 13 speed or some emerging trend. One observation is that if last year was the year of 165mm cranks, this year is the season of gigantic waterbottles. The move to ever higher amounts of carbohydrate consumption in races means this is also de rigeur in training too. Only riders can’t post soigneurs beside the road or have a scooter following them with a box full of bidons. So look for team-issue bikes fitted with cycle-touring bottle cages to fit one litre more bottles, at least for training. The humble 500ml bidon still lives on for racing but the musette is probably on its way out, there’s no less need for cotton bags these days as staff hand up bidons with energy mix and gels taped to the bottle.
Finally we’ll see rider retirements… with a difference. Most continue in the sport until they can’t get a contract any more even if the results tail off – see Sagan or Froome – but the prediction here is for big names to walk away from the sport because they’re done, even if teams are queuing for their services brandishing fat contracts. See Grace Brown last year, she won in Liège and became Olympic and World time trial champion and quit, taking her rainbow jersey with her for the year, although at the age of 32. Expect to see more of this from younger riders who feel they’ve got all they wanted from the sport including financial security so they can leave early. But we’ll see if this happens in 2025 or if it’s more for beyond.
Plus some race predictions:
MSR – MvdP
PR – WVA
RVV – Pog
LBL – Pidcock
Giro – Ayuso
TdF – Jonas
Vuelta – Pog
Worlds – Pog
Well, the calendar isn’t that complicated, apparently!
(And the second tier of races is pretty obvious to identify, too)
Ive heard a lot of stuff along the line “can Pogačar repeat 2024” and I find it amusing. Pogačar in 2024 wasn’t some out of nowhere performance. It was part of a steady progress since 2019. And 2024 will simply be a season in that progression. Tadej is 26. He’s just entered his best years. Riders usually peak in their late 20s and early 30s. Even a bit later for GT riders.
I think Pogačar will be even better in 2025. My predictions:
MSR Pogačar
RVV Pogačar
PR MvdP
LBL Pogačar
Lombardia Pogačar
Giro A. Yates
Tour Pogačar
Vuelta Pogačar
Worlds Pogačar
I also think Pogačar will take Amstel and Fleche.
I think he could improve too, the second year of working with his new coach should bring some refinements. But staying lucky and healthy is a big ask so just repeating last year’s results is seems hard.
I had the same thought. Pogacar had incredible good luck in 2024, hard to imagine things falling perfectly into place two years straight.
Luck isn’t a thing. What you call luck is the outcome of many things, most which are under our control. The reason Roglič can’t stay upright is because he lacks very tangible skills, not because he has bad luck. The reason Pogačar has has one serious accident in 6 years as a professional is because he has those skills.
I’m not saying things can’t go wrong for anyone, of course they can, but Pogačar didn’t win on luck in 2024. He won on power, positioning, bike handling, team strength, tactics, intuition, etc.
As someone who turned off Strade Bianchi two minutes after Pogacar’s attack, I hope he is at the very least forced to find new ways to win. If he just solos off the front of the peloton in race after race, I’ll be watching a lot more junior and U23 races this season.
A picture paints a thousand words
McNulty and his ilk will be making serious bank for less race days, given your prediction.
Sad in so much as the US youth cycling is wanting for more American WT winners.
Funny you should mention more and bigger bottles. I saw an Instagram story today posted by UAE’s Julius Johansen’s gf, Tusnelda Maria Svanholmer, showing them out for a ride. He had four bottles on, two behind the saddle. I did a double take to check he was on a road bike.
Women’s racing. I (used to?) prefer it as it was unpredictable and basically mayhem. As the distances and professionalism have increased it has become more and more like men’s racing-lite. Same old predictable tactics – early squabbles, break goes, break brought back, favourites battle out win. Less left in the bunch than the men as the ability spread is still great, but nonetheless getting too scripted. Plus, in the UK at least, Marty MacDonald commentating, which is horrific to endure for more than 10 minutes.
My sense of 2025 is that Pogacar is only just coming into his prime.
Big riders riding less is interesting. Already MvdP rides very little, and this has obviously proved very successful. If he doesn’t ride the Tour so he can demoralise some mountain bikers, which races will he actually do? Sanremo, E3, G-W, Flanders, Roubaix, Amstel, Liege… the Worlds..?! 7 races days?!
I just read an interview with Niels Vandeputte, CX rider from Alpecin. Apparently Van der Poel does not like warming up for CX races. He doesn’t go to the bus, he does no recon. Basically he just gets out of the lambo, puts race gear on and goes to the start line stone cold.. And then he just rides everyone off his wheel 🙂 Haha, what a legend.
Sorry but that’s got lost in translation somewhere. In his last CX race (or one before) he said on tv he’d done three reccy laps, mostly with vanderputte following (which those of us who are particularly sad🤣) saw on screen!
PS Another excellent commentary on the year ahead. 🙏
I just read that Vingegaard has yet to start an Elite World road race championship, although he did ride the U23 race in 2018. I can’t imagine (nor think of) another two-time TdF winner never having even started Worlds in the modern era.
Just goes to show the level of specialisation post Lemond, Indurain, Armstrong*, Froome etc.
As for prediction, I predict Pogacar will not start Paris-Roubaix, nor win MSR. I’m picking someone other than Pogacar/MvdP/WVA to win MSR, and WVA to win in Roubaix, but we’ll see.
In other news I see Evenepoel has only just returned to indoor cycling almost six weeks after be doored. That’s a long break indicative of the seriousness of his injuries. Fingers crossed for his full recovery and sooner rather than later.
Doesn’t this highlight Vingegaard as the exception, rather than the rule, when it comes to specialisation these days?
Armstrong didn’t ride a World Champs after 1998 (ie after specialising as a GC rider). And Froome isn’t exactly known for his one-day prowess, having ridden about half a dozen one day races during his career…whereas today, all the top GC guys (Vingegaard excepted) seem to race, and win/podium the big one day races…
If anything, I’d say we’re in an era of non-specialisation, and (100km solos aside) the racing is a lot more interesting because of it!
I agree. The era of hyper specialisation were the days when, if you excuse a little artistic license, Freire would win Milan-Sanremo, Boonen and Cancellara won the cobbles, Valverde and Gilbert won in the Ardennes and Cunego won Lombardia!
Very good!
Fully within the artistic licence, I assume, but Valverde brought home a Vuelta besides podiuming the three GTs, and Cunego got a Giro (plus a white jersey at the TDF ^___^), heck even Cancellara was graciously awarded a Suisse
Predictions… for what they are worth.
MSR – Van Aert
Flanders – Pogacar
Roubaix – MvdP
Liege – Pogacar
Worlds – Pogacar
Lombardia – Pogacar
Stage races depend on which ones Pogacar does. I’ll predict that he will win the 2 that he does, whether that’s the Giro and Tour or the Tour and Vuelta, and that the other will be won by Roglic.
Fixed it for you.
MSR – Pogacar
Flanders – Pogacar
Roubaix – Pogacar
Liege – Pogacar
Giro – Pogacar
Tour – Pogacar
Worlds – Pogacar
Lombardia – Pogacar
🤣
Not exactly a precise prediction but I’m going to put ‘transfers’ out there.
There are riders tied to long contracts that could get itchy feet, there are teams at WT and PRT level that have slots available, there are, as mentioned, big riders on teams that will want more of a chance.
And what’s going on with Jayco and Ewan?
I’d heard Ewan was going to Ineos but that was last year and it looks like that’s been called off. Talks with Astana have fallen through too. Daniel Benson’s substack email has more on this, basically he’s homeless although still technically a Jayco rider.
Given his last two seasons, I don’t see why anyone would employ him, unless it was on a pittance. And I don’t think Ewan will ride for low wages. That’s why I think he’s done.
Predictions:
Despite Lappartient’s talk about it, budget caps won’t happen, especially not with the threat of Saudi money coming into the sport – the UCI will be too scared to aggravate the teams.
Thus, we will see the bigger teams increasing their dominance.
Caleb Ewan retires.
Roglic wins a one-horse race Giro.
Vin wins TdF.
Pog wins Vuelta.
WVA doesn’t win a monument.
Pog wins three (not M-SR).
Ineos ceases sponsorship.
Froome wins a race, cranked out of his eyeballs.
Lots of people talk lots of guff about safety, all while ignoring more obvious safety issues.
I think have to agree with you about Ewan. A shame. Let’s hope we’re wrong and he stages a revival – though given the sprinting riches detailed above that seems a slim hope.
Ineos have no business with a sprinter anyway, but Astana could maybe use some top 10s… Eeesh. Not a glorious use of a rider of of Ewan’s stature.
I think Ineos would have been wise to give Ewan a shot. He could just follow their big boys around and pick up some scraps here and there. Can’t be any worse than Viviani, and Ineos need wins, even at lower-tier races.
Surely better than current Viviani, whose role I must suppose should be sort of a tech/mentoring/pre-managing one rather than anyone expecting victories from him… (which Ewan isn’t at all apt for, I’m afraid).
But Ewan was never close to top Viviani and he himself is probably far from his best versions. Both athletes with short-lasting peaks of absolute excellence, although Viviani had less of a natural gift and much more hard homework done, besides obviously a very brilliant track career to take care of.
Anyway, Ewan will always be the author of one of the most commanding performance I can recall from a pure sprinter on the Poggio.
I think Ewan has (had) a lot of natural talent, both in terms of sprinting and in M-SR as you mention, but his ‘tactics’ in sprints seemed increasingly wayward.
What really showed his character, though, was that in his final season at Lotto, he would continually sit up once he knew he was no longer going to win a sprint, despite his team desperately needing the points.
” Is it worth doing Dwars Door Vlaanderen if you want to win Roubaix or the Ronde?”
Winning races like Dwars Door Vlaanderen turns you into the next “star” getting hyped for the monuments.
If they must have yellow cards then I think it’s a pity they’re not going to be issued by commisaires popping out of car sunroofs, as that would at least make it somewhat amusing to see!
Is there something missing from the end of the Arkea paragraph?
My prediction for 2025: Carbon monoxide usage comes to the forefront. There’s something insidious when one or two teams can be so dominant and both Visma and UAE have admitted to its usage, yet no one really knows the extent. I’m truly hoping that the riders aren’t being used as guinea pigs, but we all know the realities.
I think it could equally recede, the teams who said they’ve used it have said they won’t so much now. The feedback (a couple of chats, not a survey) seems to be it’s something that riders and staff are not worried about at all… except for the way it gets written up, eg a legitimate blood test method that many teams might like to use but it’s too expensive/logistics gets written up with a suspicious tone.
Still the sport has a long history of experimenting with gains and using legal methods for illegal gains so it’s right to watch out. Plus there are one or two people in the altitude field who… well I wouldn’t buy a used car from them but they’re not working with the two teams you mention. As said in a “shorts” piece from December, CO is koolstofmonoxide in Dutch, монооксид углерода in Russian, just in case.
Interesting takes, Mr. INRNG.
On women’s racing, I think you are right. Minor men’s races could be pushed aside for women’s races. Or – which I hope – we will have more double shows running with both men’s and women’s racing.
On the subject of Women’s racing, a joker has been thrown in as Anna van der Breggen returns to racing. This will be very interesting to follow.
On bottles, you were wise to state training rides, as UCI’s regulations still has a maximum of 800 ml on bottles.
And on Vingegaard, he has in the Danish press expressed interest in the upcoming WC, but it remains to be seen if new Danish national coach Michael Mørkøv can make him participate.
On the TdF, I would venture with del Toro in the top 5 and – if his recovery goes according to plan, Evenepol wil have a greater impact than last year. I am convinced he only needed to shed 2 kilos to be fully competitive with at least JV. TP will always be somewhat more difficult. TP’s ability to also stay upright and avoid trouble is rather impressive.
2025 predictions?
A mad race for UCI points by a few teams which will liven up the minor races.
Otherwise watching the UAE team on the final stretch of MSR will be probably intensely amusing.
Just hope the Tour winner is not decided by who does not crash in the Spring.
Wild guess. Pogačar will look again überstrong, save for some sort of accident and its consequences which will have him out for an unspecified part of the season.
Another script turn might be he’s on fine form at the TDF and proves the strongest but some freak situation puts him ten minutes down and he fails to get it all back from Vingo and Remco.