Men’s Olympic Road Race Preview

The men’s road race is this Saturday and it is the longest single event in the Olympics, at least six hours on the road. The format of just 90 starters and small teams promises a lively race with many riders left to fend for themselves by the time the climbs of Montmartre begin.

Mathieu van der Poel wants to add the Olympic rings to his rainbow bands but plenty can strike gold on this prestigious picture postcard circuit.

The Course
272.1km and 2,800m of vertical gain. It’s out to the south-west of Paris and the first climb, labelled the Côte des Gardes is the steepest of the day, 16% at one point. Then it’s via Versailles and roads of the Yvelines familiar to the opening stage of Paris-Nice each year, but with few copycat sections. After passing the Saint Quentin velodrome the race visits the Chevreuse valley, well known to Parisian cyclists as these are some of the best roads within reach of the capital thanks to the small hills and woodland.

None of the climbs in the first 200km are tricky or have traps, instead it’s the accumulation and twists and turns that will gradually fatigue. The last climb of the Pavé des Gardes is the widest of all the climbs but the road tips up enough and goes on sufficiently to make things start to feel tough. Then it’s back downhill into Paris for a guided tour of many tourist landmarks from the Eiffel Tour, the Louvre, the Canal St. Martin to the Place du Tertre and going via many smaller places such as the Café des Deux Moulins, famous for a scene in the Amélie film of 2001, and now on the main climb of the Paris circuit.

There are three laps of an 18km urban course. It’s got comparisons to the Glasgow worlds last year but that was more condensed in terms of climbing and cornering, in terms of worlds courses this feels a bit more like Leuven in 2021.

The climb of the Butte Montmartre is the tactical focus point but it’s just over 1km with an average gradient of 6.5% which tops out at 9%, no Mount Olympus. It’s cobbled with a mix of old stones and modern urban paving and it’s not wide, being at the front counts double as riders can chose the best line. It’s got a narrow descent.

Montmartre gets all the attention as the marked climb but the circuit has two other climbs, the Boulevard Sérurier is as the name suggests, a big wide road and the Avenue Gambetta has another climb, but wide again.

The Finish
After the third time up the climb the race takes a different descent off Montmartre with wider roads and down to the river Seine to cross the Pont du Carousel, hook a right to follow the river, it’s flat from here on.

With 400m to go a right hand bend and across the Pont d’Iena in front of the Eiffel tower. While some bridges have a hump this is flat leading to the line.

The Scenario
90 starters and no team has more than four riders. Why? Because it’s the Olympics where there’s pressure to cap the number of competitors overall so having 180 for just one day is too much, and no big teams in order to accommodate riders from other countries. But this means roughly 20 riders who don’t compete at the highest level and while it’s nice to see them taking to the start, the hard part for them will be featuring later. It means even fewer riders by the time the race reaches Paris and it’ll be harder to contain moves throughout.

The Montmartre climb isn’t hard by itself but with 250km done it’ll be a lot harder. The rest of the Paris circuit counts for plenty too, the big boulevards look easy with our reference points of large teams who can pull breaks back but think instead of Sanremo after the Poggio with tired riders without much support hesitant to follow each move. The large roads can almost make it easier to escape giving width to launch.

The Contenders
Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands) is the obvious pick, after a discreet Tour de France with some team work he won the Worlds last year, he’s hoping for the same. Indeed the only concern is form after a quiet July. The smaller one is he hasn’t reconned the Paris circuit and the last time he didn’t study the Olympic details led to issues in Izu. At his best he can shape the race, picking the moment to make his move but he can also win a sprint from a group too. He’s only got two team mates, Dylan van Baarle as outsider but more likely a precious helper.

If this course resembles the Leuven Worlds then Julian Alaphilippe (France) won there. He did ride the field off his wheel in the Czech Tour recently but repeating this in the Olympics is a much tougher ask and he’s clearly less explosive these days. Christophe Laporte is the obvious counter as if Alaphilippe moves he can bide his time and if Alaphilippe can’t get away then Laporte can cover moves and win from a small group.

Fresh from winning the time trial, if we can say that after doing the Tour as well, Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) can take a flyer, it’s easy to see him carving a corner on the descent off Montmartre and riding away solo for the win like he did in for the worlds in Wollongong and he’s a better sprinter these days, as in more crafty. Wout van Aert gives more depth to the team, especially after his revival result in the time trial but if he’s coming to the finish can he win the sprint, he’s got a great chance. Jasper Stuyven is also another card to play but the difficulty here is being able to make his own moves when he could be precious for his team mates.

Mads Pedersen (Denmark) had to quit the Tour de France with a cracked shoulder, hardly the preparation he’d choose and he’d like an uphill sprint but a contender all the same.

Marc Hirschi (Switzerland) is a late call up and a form pick after winning the Czech Tour. He’s adept at racking up non-World Tour wins but is this, to coin a phrase, non-selection bias as he wins when he’s not having to race for others on the stacked UAE team? Or does going beyond 200km pose problems?

Ben Healy (Ireland) is the breakaway pick in a race where teams are small to start with and will be reduced by the time the race returns to Paris. His EF team mate Alberto Bettiol (Italy) is a similar rider in method as a one-shot rider who likes to go solo. If someone does take a flyer who will be left to bring them back?

Spain have a fun team with long shot sprinter Alex Aranburu, the cosmopolitan Juan Ayuso and classics contender Oier Lazkano but… how to win? The same for the USA with Brandon McNulty, Matteo Jorgenson and Magnus Sheffield.

Biniam Girmay (Eritrea) is more than a sprinter and can cope with the climbs today but he’s racing alone which makes things harder. Jhonathan Narvaez (Ecuador) isn’t a sprinter at all but can clean up from a small group

Michael Matthews (Australia) isn’t winning so often these days but came so close in Sanremo so he’s another shot at a long race. Talking of Sanremo, Matej Mohorič (Slovenia) is an outsider for his ability to float away just when others are tired and watching each other. Corbin Strong (New Zealand) is a punchy sprinter who can handle the hills. Tom Pidcock (Great Britain) doubles up after the mountain bike title and with nothing to lose and plenty to gain as teams compete for his services.

Van der Poel
Evenepoel
Van Aert, Laporte
Stuyven, Girmay, Mohorič
Matthews, Narvaez, Pidcock, Hirschi, Alaphilippe

Weather: sunny and 26°C. A 15km/h breeze from the west means a headwind for the final kilometres along the banks of the Seine.

TV: KM0 is 11.10am CEST and the finish is forecast for 5.40pm. The race reaches Paris around 4.00pm.

It’s live from start to finish but coverage depends on your local broadcaster, they might just have a livestream on their website. Once you’ve found it the concern is the production and direction as the IOC has its in-house unit to supply the video and road cycling coverage at the Olympics has often lacked the basics like the “KM to go” caption or good direction.

78 thoughts on “Men’s Olympic Road Race Preview”

  1. Does the absence of Pogacar devalue the race or make it more interesting? I guess, both. I’m now wishing I’d booked Eurostar tickets because those last few laps of Monmartre will be epic.

  2. Of the favourites I would like to see Van Aert have his day but with the reduced numbers it is hard to see the “ride off the front” tactic being contained … and the best at that would be Evenepoel. Belgium appear to have it covered both ways.

    • Looks good for Belgium, but due to the somewhat easy terrain, guys like Matthews, Pedersen and Girmay could have a chance if the form is good. Quite open race, at least six guys has a good chance.

  3. It’ll be an interesting novelty to watch a race Pogacar isn’t going to win. Picking winners this year has generally been very easy, so for that reason I hope Van der Poel doesn’t win. Some sort of race, with drama and suspense would be the ideal.

  4. This will be quite an odd race compared to normal World Tour events. With small, or no, teams it’s possible we’ll get another unexpected winner. Jens Voight thought the distance was too much considering lack of team helpers and it’s hard to disagree with him. I’ll watch it of course but my current feelings about the Olympics are mild annoyance that they’re superseding the normal cycling calendar.
    Why is Juan Ayuso ‘cosmopolitan’?

    • I have to agree – it is an oddity. DIfferent rules apply for this race with such small teams and big distance so maybe we’ll get a ‘different’ result – ie a surprise winner.

  5. Sounds like a peloton of not more than forty riders by the time they reach km200 – maybe much less. It will make for a strange race and maybe surprise winner, with the stars lacking the support they are used to.

    A rider coming from a modest TdF yet recovered: Williams as a very long shot?

  6. is there a time cut for those riders who aren’t at the level or do they get to complete the course and hopefully not affect the outcome as mobile traffice on the circuit part (harsh i appreciate)

    • Riders will get pulled off at the circuit’s feed zone if they are more than about half a lap behind. Nobody will finish with an OTL result as the 8% time cut is far greater than half a lap will be.

      The exit of the circuit is just after the feed zone and there is also the option of skipping the circuit section completely, so many of the riders not finishing the race due to being too far behind will still get to the finish line by riding along the final part of the race route. This was the case in the London and Rio editions of the Olympic Road Race where the course also exited the final circuit for a run in to the finish.

      One of the things done differently in the Olympic Road Race is that there are usually more timing lines than in normal cycling events and the time gaps of all riders at every timing line will be published afterwards, so riders who don’t finish will at least have their time gap at the last timing line recorded instead of their result being just DNF.

  7. With no teams to speak of, and no radio, the winner is surely an independent minded rider not afraid of making a bold early move. It must be every man for himself, no?

    MvdP and Remco are my top picks, no surprise – but they’re both ‘four ring’ picks for me surely not even MvdP can warrant five on what will surely be a chaotic race. Either way, I can’t put a chainring between them (other than perhaps to allow for fatigue for Remco), and I’d have put Pog in that bracket too, not higher. Pidcock and Healy (who must win alone) a tier below.

    The true “heart” pick for me would be Fred Wright. Just imagine.

  8. Good to have credible Kiwi outside medal chances in both the men’s and women’s (Kim Cadzow) road races but I’d pick Laurence Pithie rather than Corbin Strong at this stage. Top ten at Roubaix this season certainly a breakthrough performance and shows capacity for distance after an early win in Cadel Evan’s GORR. If Pithie makes a selection Strong could be useful from a chase group if the race comes back together late.

      • Fair call and a good reminder, to me at least, that chainrings are for the win rather than placings. Strong is the more proven sprinter but over 272km/2800m I see Pithie as the better outside medal chance. As a Kiwi it’s just great to have realistic medal _hopes_ in both races, we haven’t often had that over the Olympiads.

      • And to answer the question I don’t think there’s a realistic scenario in which Pithie can win against those who would also populate a finishing group sprint, nor that he could break away in the finale. That leaves only the hope of all such racers, a Jasper Stuyven at Milan-San Remo late escape as the favourites mark each other…

        A Jelle Nijdam finish for the ages!

  9. Is Laurence Pithie a sneaky shout? Was a revelation in the early season and classics, has had a nice freshen since the Giro, and surely New Zealand is about due for a gold.

  10. Dare I ask what the considerations are / were for how many riders a country can bring? Surely some of the three rider nations could have brought four?

    • It’d be nice, but she was close to top level rider, albeit amateur at the time. It’s hard to imagine similar story in probably much more structured male peloton (and frankly probably kind of higher level, due to the longer tradition – and differing economy – of male pro racing).

    • As great a win as it was I don’t think it makes for a great race, unless such an early breakaway is on the verge of being closed down for a while in the finale, whether or not it/they eventually get caught. An early breakaway that stays clear and wins by more than a minute, not so much, other than for their country and its fans.

  11. I think the ‘pot luck’ nature of the olympic road race compared to the World Champs can be seen in the list of winners over the last, say, 12-15 years…

    The world champs winners list (listed below) to me reflects the absolute standout one-day riders of the period – only 1 or 2 obvious names are missing, in Pogacar & Cancellara…and Costa is probably the only name that jumps out as an oddity or surprise.

    Whereas the olympic winners in a similar period, of Sanchez, Vinokourov, GvA, Carapaz are all good riders no doubt, but not exactly the top riders of their era…

    So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar outcome tomorrow, with a slightly left-field winner – somebody like Laporte, Bettiol, Matthews, Stuyven would fit the bill.

    World Champions :
    MvdP
    Evenepoel
    Alaphilippe x2
    Pedersen
    Valverde
    Sagan x3
    Kwiatkowski
    Costa
    Gilbert
    Cavendish

    • Oh, good post. It’s an interesting comparison. What you can say about Rui Costa in his World Champs year, and GvA in his Olympic year, is that they were in absolutely astonishing form in those years. Career best form. In 2016/17 I would say GvA was one of the very best in the world. Only Sagan could compete.

      So, is there a rider, outside the top favourites, who has had a great year this year? Pithie has been mentioned, but has he been GvA 2016/7 good? Could he be?

    • Interesting way to compare the two races. Also interesting that you considered Costa odd or unexpected, but not 23 year old Pedersen. In hindsight, of course Pedersen was a worthy winner, and now it makes sense he has been a World Champion. But at the time I remember a hearing a lot of jaws hit the floor when he out sprinted the cagey and quick Matteo Trentin. On the other hand, by 2013, Costa had already won two of his three TDSs, all three of his Tour stages, the GP Montréal and lots more besides. Not only that, his 2014 was quite successful with a third Tour de Suisse GC win and some big podiums like Paris-Nice, Romandie, and Lombardia. I had actually forgotten he had been so good in non-Suisse GC battles till I refreshed my memory looking at PCS today.

      Poor Mads’ year in the rainbow stripes was of course effed-up by covid. Would be nice to see him get another chance to have a year in the jersey.

      • Perhaps I’m being unfair to Rui Costa, but despite a number of top level wins and GC rides, I don’t see him as one of the *big champions* of the early 2010s, but more of a second tier rider who could win on his day but wasn’t top of the favourites list week in week out.

        Pedersen was certainly a big surprise when he won, but as you say he’s confirmed his talent in the years afterwards and has become one of the biggest and best one day riders of the last 5 years. So with hindsight his name doesn’t seem out of place among others on the list.

    • Mathieu van der Poel – 28 years old (2023)
      Remco Evenepoel – 22 years old (2022)
      Julian Alaphilippe – 28 years old (2020)
      Mads Pedersen – 23 years old (2019)
      Peter Sagan – 25, 26, and 27 years old (2015, 2016, 2017)
      Michał Kwiatkowski – 24 years old (2014)
      Rui Costa – 26 years old (2013)
      Philippe Gilbert – 30 years old (2012)
      Mark Cavendish – 26 years old (2011)

      Oh, and let’s not forget Alejandro Valverde – 38 years old (2018)

    • Costa wasn’t odd to me! Backed him at $100/1 in that race. Wet weather beast and his solo win that year in an epic TdF stage was the perfect pointer.

    • I don’t this analysis stands up to scrutiny. The only Olympic RR won by an outsider since the pros entered was Pascal Richard in 1996. In 2008 Sanchez had just finished 6th in the Tour, in 2012 Vino (a clever rider with good Palmares) exploited a soft course and Carapaz in 2021 had just finished 3rd in the Tour. By contrast, over a similar time frame the Worlds has been won by Oscar Camenzind, Igor Astarloa, Laurent Brochard, Roman Vainsteins, Rui Costa and Alessandro Ballan. So proportionally both are as likely to be won by a slight outsider.

  12. I’m a little surprised by how little attention the Americans have received in the lead up to this race. All three are strong in long races and McNulty was there to the bitter end in Tokyo. Jorgenson has had an impressive breakout year as well. I would be surprised if we don’t see at least one of them in the front of the race for a long time, and with the odd group dynamics you never know how it will play out in the end. On the other hand, there’s no way any of them win if they’re in a group with any of the top favorites as none of them have the punch to ride away or win a sprint on this parcours. But I fully expect them to liven up the race. It’s the Olympics after all, what’s to lose?

  13. I’d love to see Narvaez win, he’s such a classy rider. Plus it could help heal the Carapaz situation, and give a morale boost for Ineos (at least until the end of the season).

  14. “If someone does take a flyer who will be left to bring them back?” Especially with no radios to keep track of them, and very limited team resources to do it. I won’t be surprised if the podium includes none of the favorites. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for all the best kinds of chaos (and no crashes; we’ve had more than enough this season).

  15. “Once you’ve found it the concern is the production and direction as the IOC has its in-house unit to supply the video and road cycling coverage at the Olympics has often lacked the basics like the “KM to go” caption or good direction.”

    I laughed when I read this. In the men’s TT last weekend as the final few riders came in and with all the medals still to be decided, the director suddenly decided, that now was the right time to cut away to helicopter shots of Paris landmarks rather than show the actual racing. They had the *whole* the of the TT to show these views off, but they saved them all for the very end!

    You would think that all the France Televisions crews might be available, since they’re effectively the best in the world and are right there! Maybe they’re just on a break before they resume coverage of the TdF Femmes?

    • A sudden cut to generic (potentially pre-recorded) scenic footage suggests a connectivity failure of some kind (e.g. a critical switching unit fails, team car hits a broadcast van etc) and not poor direction.

      The vast majority of the crew who work on the Tour de France host broadcast would indeed be working for Olympic Broadcast Services, because most of them would be employed by external production contractors rather than working directly for France Televisions.

      The Road Race is always going to have a lower production level than the Tour, because it is the most expensive sport to broadcast out of all the summer and winter Olympic sports even before large amounts of extra cycling-specific features are added. They would rather put extra resources into the blue ribbon sports like athletics, swimming and gymnastics where the premium 4K broadcast vans can be parked up in one place for a couple of weeks.

      The impact of the Olympics on the sports broadcasting industry is felt as far away as Australia, where the Supercars Championship was forced to avoid having race meetings during the Olympics purely because of the broadcast industry. It was nothing to do with TV ratings as the time difference means there is no clash for viewers..

      • I must agree about the TV coverage, not just of cycling but also triathlon. The TV coverage showed some (but not all) of Remco’s first move across to the break, and then nothing of his escape from the break to go off the front.

        The men’s triathlon was even worse: in the critical final km of the run, when I thought Yee would be caught to lose 2nd place, instead he caught the winner and went past for the win. But instead the TV showed a bland shot of the crowd and a bridge… Yee catching up to Hayden Wild apparently wasn’t as important.

  16. Remco was untouchable, but what a masterclass by the French to take the silver and bronze. Laporte will never have an easier ride to the podium.

  17. REMCO!!!

    I am so, so glad the organizers didn‘t listen to anyone and honored cycling with this course.

    That is exactly why Remco‘s win now is truly golden. Enhanced by the course. By the length. The small peloton. No help from outside sources from the radio. No large teams. At least 2/3s of the peloton riding as professionals.

    All this means, that Remco Evenepoel‘s win in the road race is a worthy and satisfying win.

    And I have to add: if it is solely about racing and not about teams or ds or team budget and such stuff, Remco is always in contention for the win and 99 Percent of the times he comes out on top.

    If you then widen the view and take in, that he is also the olympic time trial champion? Magnificent. Awe inspiring. He is the first to manage that and there is a reason for that.

    That he managed this is a testament to his talent. But also to his mind. Because that it never was done before surely was why he took on this challenge. He wanted to make history. Not just be a part of it. He wanted to actively shape it. Bend it to his will. And he did.

    • I realize it’s a petty thing: the win was unbelievable, and I was literally shouting at the computer when he flatted, but then that celebration? Brudder. Show some dignity or something.

      But that was an incredible watch.

      Can that really be the first ever men’s ITT/Road Race double in one year?

      • The Time Trial was only changed from a team event to an individual event for the men in 1996 and first introduced for the women in the same year.

        Leontien van Moorsel was the first cyclist to do the double under the current format in 2000, and she managed to defend the ITT title in 2004.

        Riders to win some other combination of medals in both races in the same year:
        Clara Hughes (ITT bronze & RR bronze 1996)
        Fabian Cancellara (ITT gold & RR silver 2008)
        Anna van der Breggen (RR gold & ITT bronze 2016, also ITT bronze 2021)
        Annemiek van Vleuten (ITT gold & RR silver 2021)
        * (1996)
        * (2000)
        * (2012)

        Riders to win medals in both events in different years:
        Judith Arndt (RR silver 2004, ITT silver 2012)
        Wout van Aert (RR silver in 2021, ITT bronze in 2024)

        In the RR/TTT years, no rider ever won a gold medal in both events, but five managed to win some other combination of TTT/RR medals in the same year (Viktor Kapitonov, Live Trapè, Gösta Pettersson, Pierfranco Vianelli, Mieczysław Nowicki) while an interesting quirk is that there were occasions where the same nation won both events but with the RR winner not having been part of the TTT squad.

        • Wow, thanks. Interesting.

          Any idea why they got rid off the TTT? That’s be fun to still see.

          The road gold should be a team medal, at least this year….

          • The TTT was ‘proper’ as well. 4 man teams, 100KM. If I was in charge of the world my first two tasks would be to bring back the TTT in its original form and the individual pursuit to the Olympics. I’d also bring back the 1k on the track. The Keirin, Ominium, Madison and anything that involves a BMX would be for the chute as they say.

          • Glad that no track hater like richards is in charge of the world. You can have a real TTT and real Omnium and Madison at the same time. Like it was in the good ol timws. Amen

          • There used to be so many more track events on the Olympic schedule. I believe they said there were just too many, yet when I watch (happily) the swimming, there’s a race at every distance for every stroke!

        • Not to forget that Leontien van Moorsel won another gold in Individual pursuit and silver in the Points race the very same games in the velodrome!

    • 100%.
      But I fear it will not happen, radios and bigger team sizes mean “control” and this is what team managers want in the first place …

  18. The moment of the race was Remco’s attack just as the inseparatable tandem was brought back. Excellent Belgian play.
    Very untimely puncture for Pedersen, but I guess he’d been covered too If he’d had fresh legs up the Montmatre the first time.
    It’s also great to have this small teams no radios where’s blackboard girl when I need her info race every four years. Junior racing at it’s best.
    TV coverage was the best I’ve seen in the Olympics, as it should be in France.

    • I’m sorry but no radios in a pro peloton in a World Tour race will have the opposite effect to the one you want. It will lead to even more control from teams precisely because they have less information.

      • I’m guessing that being a DS is not like being a parent? These days I know nothing of my children’s doings, aside from the occasional report by text or email, and I feel like they and I are doing so much better since they left for university.

        This year I’m trying the same thing at work: I’m a professor and I’ll stay home instead of going to work to teach or badger my colleagues in meetings. I think it’s going to work well and I look forward to hearing how my students do.

        Seriously, though, I wonder if it wouldn’t be like US football was before helmet speakers. Terry Bradshaw, the Steeler’s 4x super bowl champ, claims to have called virtually every play he ever ran in all 4 of his super bowls. Chuck Knoll said something like: “I work Monday to Saturday. It’s his turn on Sunday”…

        But that was before “technology”.

        I was bummed to hear how much the Belgians were going back to the team car for info. A distinct advantage, among others, for a team with 4 strong riders.

  19. Thanks for the preview we managed to grab a spot in front of Sacre Ceour to watch it unfold. The crowds were incredible and in good spirits as we saw on TV and so good to be part of it. I was very pleased to see the early break of “emerging” nations, which included my compatriot Rogier-Lagane from Mauritius, get their time in the spotlight on a global platform. Mauritius definitely has a better chance today with Kimberly La Court top 10 classics and P-R in 2024 as well as winning the last stage of ladies Giro.

  20. I’m surprised by the negative comments about Remco’s celebration. He was absolutely dominant, and his celebration was entirely earned and perfect for the setting. The photo of him – alone – in front of the Eiffel Tower May never be topped.

  21. Was a great race indeed, and it was given really good coverage for the groups that mattered on the road. Shame nobody got the money shot with Remco holding his bike aloft in a stance that echoed la tour behind.
    And Kristen Faulkner’s Zwift avatar finish celebration was just confusing, but chapeau

    In France the TV is not showing track cycling; rather huge amounts of basketball/basket à trois, football get priority.
    Each country gives the Games its own slant.

    The pride this country has taken in presenting its venues has been something to see. It’s given them a positive vibe at a time when otherwise the lack of a premier ministre would be hellish news.

Comments are closed.