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Three Weeks To The Giro

The Giro is three weeks away and it’s time to take a quick look at the various contenders and see where they are. Vincenzo Nibali is probably the top pick now but on reputation alone because he’s not shown convincing form. The upcoming Ardennes races and the Giro del Trentino will give us more clues but until then here’s a quick scan of where the riders are.

A reminder of the route. There’s a prologue in the Netherlands and two more time trials, one of which is uphill. There’s a less mountainous feel than recent years with four high mountain stages although the race aims very high with Colle d’Agnello (2744m) and the Col de la Bonnette (2715m) on consecutive stages. Snow will be a concern.

Mikel Landa

Alberto Contador isn’t riding, nor is Fabio Aru so the only podium finisher from 2015 to return is Mikel Landa who is now with Team Sky. The Basque climber was ill earlier this year but salvaged a stage win in the Tour of the Basque Country. Good for the morale but his inconsistency may not be and if last year’s Giro was great for him, the time trial stage was a stinker. He’ll need to have made gains in the windtunnel and then some and we’ve yet to see how he’s faring this discipline so far this season as the Basque TT stage wasn’t an ordinary effort. He’s a good prospect for the race yet a risk too and this makes things all the more exciting. Team Sky haven’t cracked the Giro in the way they’ve done the Tour de France. There should be Sergio Henao who is filling in the role of most valuable helper right now and perhaps gets his chance in the Ardennes soon. It’s possible Leopold König rides too, one of several riders who joined Team Sky with ambitions only to find themselves usurped by an even bigger signing, this time though the Czech rider can become the team’s leader through his superior time trialling skills if he can get himself into a better position than Landa.

Vincenzo Nibali

Vincenzo Nibali has won the Tour of Oman and was a big pick for Tirreno-Adriatico but there’s not much more to go on. He’s erratic, sometimes capable of great authority in a race and other times sulking with every pedal stroke. He’ll need everything to right between now and the first big rendez-vous of the Giro. We’ll see how he’s climbing when it comes to the Giro del Trentino next week. In the background there’s talk of a new team from Bahrain and it’s unknown if he’s signed a deal yet. His Giro performance could set his market value although he doesn’t seem bothered. He’ll head up a strong Astana team and it’ll be interesting to see the workplace politics, whether they all work for him or play personal cards. Several new teams are mooted and UCI points could have a high value soon if these new teams appear and want a World Tour licence. Nibali can also count on big support at home, he’s in the Italian champions jersey and enjoys a strong following in Italy to the point where his presence and in particular his success in this race will bring the crowds out.

Ever-present in the Tour de France and Vuelta, Alejandro Valverde rides the Giro for the first time. Neither a priority for his sponsors, nor worthwhile on the calendar and for a while bad for the ego given he was a wanted man by Italian anti-doping authorities. The route and the lack of time bonuses don’t suit him so much so his he riding to win or for conditioning ahead of the Olympics? With Valverde there’s never a training race. He’s going to turn 36 in the coming days but ride in the Vuelta a Andalucia where he simply rode away from everyone on the Peñas Blancas summit finish suggests he’s as strong as ever. If his programme has changed with the Giro he’ll do his traditional Ardennes races before and he’s already looking sharp after fourth place in the Klasika Amorebieta. Last year’s surprise Andrey Amador could return but won’t have as much room, he’ll be marked and probably on team duty too.

Esteban Chaves

Esteban Chaves should bring a cheer to the race thanks to the Colombian’s radiant smile and lively racing style. If he can repeat his Vuelta form he’ll be great value in the race although so far he’s been very quiet and yet to be seen on TV on a mountain stage this year. The race’s time trials don’t suit him either and he’ll have to share the Orica-Greendge team with Caleb Ewan who comes for the sprints.

Rafał Majka has surely got a Giro win in his legs. Once seen as a pure climber he’s now useful in time trials too, especially if they’re hilly. He’s experienced too, he comes free from having to work for Alberto Contador and that extra motivation of knowing his market value could soar with a win just as his Tinkoff team is set to end. So far so good… but his form is unknown and his Vuelta podium is one thing but leading a race and coping with all that comes with it is another. Tinkoff will send their A-team to the Tour de France, including Majka as a helper, but there should be enough support to help on the plains and in the mountains.

It wasn’t long ago that Tom Dumoulin was hot property after his Vuelta and more. But he and the media interest has cooled with few results to speak of so far this year. All part of the plan? Perhaps and here’s a Giro route to suit with a hilly time trial and few mountains but the major goal seems to be the Olympic time trial title. Pink and gold are achievable and if he wants a grand tour win here is the most friendly route he’s going to get this year and possibly for the next one or two seasons as well. He’ll need support in the mountains and it’ll be interesting to see who among the few climbers Giant-Alpecin have are tasked with support in the Giro rather than saving themselves for the Tour de France. His season starts now with the Amstel Gold Race on home roads.

Rigoberto Uran’s progress in the time trials has made him a real contender for the podium in the Giro and perhaps even the top step this year given the significance of the time trials. Know for grinding out results while other fall away in the final week we’ll see how he’s fared with the team swap to Cannondale and the new training regime, something which has frustrated Pierre Rolland at times. Cannondale team mate Davide Formolo is also worth watching, he took a stage last year and maybe now he’ll go for the pink jersey.

If Ilnur Zakarin is not on your radar you need to start thinking about him. The lanky Tartar rode the Giro last year and took a stage at Imola, escaping a select group on a tough mid-mountain stage but it was his Tour de Romandie victory that introduced him as a grand tour contender. This year he’s taken the big mountain stage of the Paris-Nice, albeit by sitting on the wheels but isn’t that how you win stage races? He’s also very good in the time trials. However he’s only ridden one grand tour before and that was not as a leadership contender so dealing with the pressure and being in the right place for three weeks is going to be a novel experience.

Domenico Pozzovivo will lead Ag2r La Mondiale and is a perpetual candidate but he’d surely prefer more climbing. He’s likely to be a factor in the race and not just in the high mountains but on any punchy finish. Jean-Christophe Péraud rides and the last time he tried to follow Vincenzo Nibali he ended up on the podium of the 2014 Tour de France. It seems too much to ask this time but he’s a tough ride who could easily make the top-10 if he avoids accidents.

Lotto-Jumbo return and perhaps they’ll want more of the same. Steven Kruijswijk was a hero of the race for his riding but didn’t have the rewards to show, neither a stage win nor the mountains jersey but consistent riding could see him visible again. It’s not clear who else rides, presumably Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman are being saved for the Tour de France.

Of course there’s more than the GC battle. Caleb Ewan is riding and so is Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, André Greipel, Matteo Pelucchi, multi-stage winner last year Sacha Modolo and young prospect Jakub Marecko among others. Plus there’s Fabian Cancellara aiming for the prologue and all the escape artists and stage hunters hoping for action too.

Conclusion
In three weeks’ time it’ll be the eve of the Giro d’Italia which starts on a Friday because of its Dutch departure. While every move of a stage racer during June is analysed for clues about their performances in the Tour de France there’s not much to go on for the Giro, all the more reason for this piece to look and see where the contenders and pretenders are. The trend for grand tour contenders to do one race a month at most and then return to altitude means only they and their coaches know the level of form.

Vincenzo Nibali seems to be the best pick with Rafał Majka and Alejandro Valverde other obvious names. Before it began last year’s race seemed to have only four riders in contention for the podium with Alberto Contador and then Richie Porte, Fabio Aru and Rigoberto Uran and few big names to contend with after that. This year’s race should have a deeper field and more contenders.

Comments on this entry are closed.

  • Leo T Thursday, 14 April 2016, 12:50 pm

    Small nitpick – second paragraph – “Team Sky have cracked the Giro in the way they’ve done the Tour de France” – surely this should read “Team Sky haven’t cracked the Giro….”

  • Netserk Thursday, 14 April 2016, 1:03 pm

    Hmm, I’d say Nibali has shown as much as he has been able to. In fact, he has been as good or better so far in all races compared with 2013. Even though the MTF was wrongly cancelled, he still finished 6th in the GC of Tirreno, and he would have been on the podium if not for the TTT.

    Against Landa, who also seems on track, when we compare with last year, I think Nibali’s team is the biggest concern.

  • HWSB Thursday, 14 April 2016, 1:27 pm

    Thank you. 2744m! Surely swings it in the direction of Nibali / Majka and away from the likes of Dumolin.

    May I ask:
    “…the new training regime, something which has frustrated Pierre Rolland at times”

    I thought Cannondale were all very excited about Rolland’s progress. Is that all press-release stuff to mask the truth?

    • Joel Sunday, 17 April 2016, 9:57 pm

      JV said Rolland’s training regime was straight out of 1975.

      It’s probably out of 1970 now, with a guaranteed team crash at the TTT.

  • Larry T. Thursday, 14 April 2016, 1:45 pm

    Grazie for this, you made my day. I hope for another “toughest race in the world’s most beautiful place” once they’re back in Italy. W La Corsa Rosa!!!

  • Joe K. Thursday, 14 April 2016, 1:48 pm

    As INRNG points out, this year’s Giro is open, so should be exciting. Dumoulin for his first grand tour win? Hope so, but his team is weak compared to Astana and Sky. Majka another hopeful. Can’t wait!

  • Anonymous Thursday, 14 April 2016, 2:39 pm

    What? You’re not going to touch that hot disc issue?

    Only joking. “faring this discipline” was clever. In the near future, there will be an eclectic group of religious readers, no small percentage being cute, smartly dressed, little old ladies, who will politely contest to find the word play first. They will have a scoring system; puns, double entendres, etc., make brief posts declaring their count. Others will follow with polite corrections or congratulations.

    Spring over, this part of the season is always a little low for me. But the Giro is fun, so I recover and the Vuelta and the Worlds and the rider’s team shuffling keep my interest. I would be happy if Nibali, Valverde and Uran all ended on the steps, in any order.

    Your comments made me think that, in all sport commentary, writers often talk about conditioning, health and the elusive mental component. Professional cycling seems to show, to a larger percentage, the effect of character and personality to the successes (or failures) of the individual athletes career. The Italian, Spaniard and Colombian are perfect examples of this.

  • noel Thursday, 14 April 2016, 3:25 pm

    It seems to me that Sky should be backing Henao rather than Landa… I hope form rather than contract promises guide their thinking… would be great to see a Uran/Henao/Chaves podium!

    didn’t Lampre sign that Qhubeka guy for this… can’t remember his name sorry.

    • ronald Thursday, 14 April 2016, 3:45 pm

      You mean Meintjes?

      • noel Thursday, 14 April 2016, 5:01 pm

        yeah that’s the one… haven’t heard much about him, how’s he doing?

        • sam Thursday, 14 April 2016, 7:40 pm

          he’s done nothing. he kind of reminds me of formolo in that there’s all this promise and potential but no real results yet. didnt he get top 10 at the vuelta a year or two ago?

          at least formolo won a giro stage. i think they tout some of these young potential grand tour contenders way more than they should. petr vakoc seems much more promising this year with his several wins.

          • CA Thursday, 14 April 2016, 9:34 pm

            Agreed, every year people say there are a couple dozen new potential Grand Tour winners, but there’s only 3 GT’s per year! haha. Most of the time, it’s much more rational for these guys to be touted as the next major grand tour super domestiques.

          • Festina Friday, 15 April 2016, 2:51 pm

            Yes and with that I see Popovych is retiring this year; once tipped for greatness but disappeared amongst the pro ranks.

          • Joel Sunday, 17 April 2016, 9:50 pm

            Meintjes has had a bit of bad luck with crashes in his last 2 stage races. He’s riding the Tour anyway rather than the Giro. He will go for top 10 GC there, Costa going for stages.

    • inthedrops.net Friday, 15 April 2016, 3:27 pm

      Landa prefers to ride with fewer days in his legs and he can reach top form quickly too. He should be a disaster in the TT unless Sky have taught him something magical but given what we’ve seen of him in the last year he’ll be better climbing than Henao over three weeks.

    • Charles Friday, 15 April 2016, 5:45 pm

      They should back König!

  • Joe Atocha Thursday, 14 April 2016, 5:01 pm

    Hey, Chavez got his braces off!

    • CA Thursday, 14 April 2016, 6:10 pm

      The teeth look great!

    • Augie March Thursday, 14 April 2016, 6:20 pm

      He now looks 16 rather than 14….

      Seriously though, keen to see what he can do this year as his ride in the Vuelta was really exciting (interestingly he hadn’t shown much form throughout 2015 until that race).

      • muz Thursday, 14 April 2016, 11:03 pm

        Something he’ll no doubt be quite happy about when he’s 65 and looks 35…

        • Pete Thursday, 14 April 2016, 11:27 pm

          Quintana looks on enviously at his youthful appearance…

          • J Evans Friday, 15 April 2016, 12:05 am

            I still don’t believe Quintana’s age.

          • J1 Friday, 15 April 2016, 11:13 am

            Crying right now xD

      • J1 Friday, 15 April 2016, 11:12 am

        Haha

  • Othersteve Friday, 15 April 2016, 2:06 am

    Any North Americans to keep an eye out for over the shoulders of the above mentioned?

    Ryder not planning to be in Italy?

    • The Inner Ring Friday, 15 April 2016, 9:38 am

      Hesjedal should be riding but it’s been a while since he was a top contender. At the other end of the age spectrum Joe Dombrowksi should be there for Cannondale.

    • PT Sunday, 17 April 2016, 10:36 am

      Ian Boswell is on Sky’s roster too.

  • Ferdi Friday, 15 April 2016, 6:30 am

    This Italian interlude between cobbles and Ardennes, makes me think that cobbles and Ardennes shouldn’t be separated but intertwined, so that riders can use their form to ride both. This way riders who can do both (Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Sagan, Van Avermaet) would ride them all, and these races wouldn’t be so specialised.

    • J Evans Saturday, 16 April 2016, 9:02 am

      I agree it would be great to see riders doing both, but there is only a week between P-R and Amstel; and the Brabantse Pijl is in between. Is it the increased ‘specialisation’ of riders that is keeping them from doing both rather than the dates of the races?

  • Graham Friday, 15 April 2016, 10:39 am

    Viviani not riding? Or just below the sprinters listed….

    • J1 Friday, 15 April 2016, 11:15 am

      He’s on Sky’s team list:

      BOSWELL Ian USA
      HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian COL
      HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis COL
      KIRYIENKA Vasil BLR
      KNEES Christian GER
      KONIG Leopold CZE
      LANDA MEANA Mikel ESP
      LOPEZ GARCIA David ESP
      VIVIANI Elia ITA

  • Vuelta Saturday, 16 April 2016, 1:43 am

    I don’t see how Dumoulin isn’t top pick unless his form is clearly below where it was? Time trials and few mountains, surely that’s him?

  • Michael Saturday, 16 April 2016, 11:37 am

    Another small nit-pick: Ilnur Zakharin is a Tatar, not a Tartar. I don’t want the hygienist scraping central Asians off my teeth. To be fair, the dictionary does give “Tartar” as an alternate spelling. Also, I imagine that Steak Tartare was not named for a dental encrustation.

  • Joel Sunday, 17 April 2016, 9:54 pm

    Taaramae is joint leader with Zakarin. Not shown anything so far this year though.

    Bit of a weak field on the whole.

  • Ozgur Nevres Wednesday, 20 April 2016, 11:26 am