Teams are announcing their long list for the Tour de France. The Tour is the cornerstone around which many teams build the season. Riders want to race, the prestige means just starting and finishing is a big deal. But it’s never simple knowing who to pick. The big budget teams worry about who to leave out, the smaller teams find it hard to balance the chances of a stage win and a tilt at the top-10 overall.
Firstly a rider needs to be healthy and in good form. That might sound obvious but it needs checking. The Tour is so important that riders might feel under pressure to cover-up a cold or something else holding them back because just taking to the start is an achievement and better you’re there than not, maybe that bug will clear up. Last year David Millar was axed at the last minute after he got a cold. More objectively riders can be measured these days, are they burying themselves to bring some bottles back from the team car or are they cruising with ease? A quick study of power and heart rate will reveal plenty and team management will be sitting down to review who’s doing what.
There’s sometimes talk of “riding into form” in a grand tour but it seems to be mythical. What may happen is a rider with little recent racing may need a few days of racing to get the rhythm back. Also if they’re fresh because they’ve had to skip recent training then they might not turn as stale as fast as other riders. This creates the relative impression of rising form but is probably more the story of others fading during the three weeks as past efforts and the catabolic grind of a grand tour catches up with them.
The objectives of different teams vary. A team built around a strong sprinter has to pick the right wagons for the sprint train. The later their role in the role in the stage, the more specific skills the rider needs and none more so that the leadout man. There’s communication, practice and trust making it hard to impose any last-minute changes. Look at Giant-Alpecin’s shortlist of riders for the Tour and all have been with the squad for two years or more, telling of a settled team.
If you watch a stage on TV you might see the last hour of a five hour stage. Many teams need someone who can ride on the front of the bunch for hours to help contain a breakaway and filter attacks. This often unseen role is essential and can explain why some teams may leave a star or two at home and pick a workhorse instead. We don’t know Team Sky’s selection but if you see David Lopez and Vasil Kiryienka instead of Leopold König and Richie Porte this could be part of the reasoning.
Teams that go for several goals struggle. Nine riders is a lot but divided between two goals and it’s quickly ineffective. Famously Mark Cavendish found it harder to go for stage wins in the 2012 Tour de France when the team management was focused on supporting Bradley Wiggins as the race approached Paris. Today we see Etixx-Quickstep built around Cavendish with the likes of Tony Martin and Michał Kwiatkowksi roped in to help. See BMC Racing and Philippe Gilbert’s recent mini-tirade about non-selection for July but his first person rant probably just highlights why he wasn’t on the list: as thrilling as he could be in the first week would he spend the mountain stages in service of Tejay van Garderen or go off in search of a personal stage win?
Of course few teams will be deciding whether to go for one or two jerseys now, this is not like deciding to pig out with a restaurant menu. Instead it takes long term planning and recruitment. At Tinkoff-Saxo it’s all about supporting Alberto Contador and Peter Sagan’s ambitions for another green jersey are secondary to Oleg Tinkov’s maillot jaune masterplan, since last year Tinkov made it clear another green jersey was not a priority and that the Slovak should focus on winning a spring classic or two. FDJ will try a two pronged approach with Thibaut Pinot and Arnaud Démare and they’ll have to share resources. One reason Pinot is racing in Switzerland this week is so that the two can race together for a change.
Given the Tour de France is often decided in the mountains a team with ambitions for the GC should bring several climbers to support their leader when it counts, right? Actually they often don’t bring many. A climber who can hang onto the back of the front group à la Zubeldia may well finish high overall but if they’re on the limit just to stay with the group then they’re no little use for their leader. With this in mind it’s only worth bringing climbers of the highest calibre. Take Team Sky where Mikel Nieve, form-permitting, is a good pick, but he’s the pure climber when others can do the same role and more. Geraint Thomas is almost the prototype rider because he’s so versatile, fifth on the Rettenbach glacier summit finish of the Tour de Suisse on Wednesday but first in the E3 Harelbeke too.
Instead the GC candidate needs protection when it counts, namely on the flat stages where horsepower really counts. Get a puncture with 10km to go on a flat stage and the last thing a leader needs is a herd of mountain goats tasked with pacing him back because even all eight riders plus their leader will struggle against a bunch led by several sprint trains. Think of Euskaltel if you want a picture but remember even Sky struggled to get Richie Porte back after that puncture in the Giro. FDJ’s Tour team is likely to have Alex Geniez and Steve Morabito to offer mountain support for Thibaut Pinot but that’s about it and he needs help on the exposed flat stages from the likes of Mathieu Ladagnous.
Similarly this year’s Tour de France has the Paris-Roubaix cobbles again so teams with ambitions for the yellow jersey need to think about some riders to shepherd their leader across the stones. Here there’s no point bring an artist who can float on the pavé when others sink what’s needed is a stable rider with a calm head to take care of their leader and with the legs to tow them into position in between the sectors.
If the possibility of a late puncture is there, this year’s team time trial stage is a certainty. Pack a team with too many mountain men and the leader will lose time over the 28km course. The TTT is an odd concept because it really does turn the Tour de France into a team sport, a classy leader on a modest team can lose minutes because his team mates aren’t good enough. With this in mind all the more reason to practice before.
How not to do it
There have been two old school ways:
- Pick the team on the basis of impressive performances in June. A rider who shines in the Dauphiné or Tour de Suisse is likely to impress their manager and book a place for the Tour de France
- Use the national championships that take place around the end of June as a selection event
Shine in June and you can be stale in July, the race just to make the Tour de France team means some, consciously nor not, are pushing themselves to peak in June and get burned during July. Using the national championships can indicate more recent form but it’s just a one day contest, random things happen. Deciding between two riders based on their performance on one day is a step away from a coin toss but that’s the point: a manager can’t decide between two similar candidates. It’s reminiscent of Napoleon’s story where he said his army had plenty of good generals already, what he needed was lucky ones. Napoleon lives on in some smaller teams but this is changing. Even modest Bretagne-Séché wisely announces the core of its selections months before the Tour.
Sponsor calls
Finally if it’s still too close to call sponsor considerations appear and nationality counts. A rider from one country can be a useful if small way to earn extra coverage in a target market even with winning, perhaps giving post-stage interviews to the domestic TV network.
Conclusion
A good ride in June can still catch a directeur sportif’s eye but there’s a lot more planning these days. Throughout the year starters for smaller events can be cobbled together as a result of injury and illness and sometimes teams start with fewer than the maximum number of riders allowed. Even the Giro and Vuelta can have surprise call ups. But the Tour looms large all year and many teams announce their long list months in advance.
When it comes to picking a team some are in the luxurious position where the dilemma is not who to pick but who to leave out. Among the top teams Astana and Team Sky seem particularly stage race focussed, they could bring a B-team and be competitive when smaller teams will bring their best nine and struggle. Etixx-Quickstep are still a team built for flatter terrain, BMC Racing can race on all terrains but lack the big captain while Tinkoff-Saxo’s squad doesn’t yet have the depth to match its pretensions and budget.
The mountain stages are so important but on a climb help from team mates isn’t as precious as it is on the plains where aerodynamics make sitting on a good wheel at 50km/h so much more important. Sky and FDJ won’t bring too many climbers, especially as this year’s race offers such a dangerous first week and the team time trial matters so much. Indeed with such a risky opening week the best pick is to have a co-leader just in case disaster strikes but that’s a call that will have been taken months ago.
The whole Gilbert/van Garderen situation is what annoys me about cycling. The ambitions of the teams are so small time. BMC likely won’t take Gilbert so that they can put a faceless workhorse in his place to help van Garderen finish, what, 6th? Realistically, he isn’t going to beat Contador, Quintana, Froome or Nibali and may well be bested by Peraud, Bardet and Pinot should they all stay upright and reach the finish. And that’s without mentioning Valverde and Rodriguez. Trek will probably put all their weight behind Mollema coming in at the base of the top ten too. If you pick Gilbert chances are he will win one of the stages in the first week, and maybe a later transition stage too. Van Garderen will grimly hang onto the back of the lead group on the mountain stages and get dropped with about 2km to go, even with all the help in the world. All the TV cameras will see of him is a 5 second shot of him looking like death as the main men speed off. Surely there is room for one freelance rider to pick up stage wins and some good TV time?!
it strikes me that TJ is a Bradley Wiggins 0.9 pre-release beta. He demonstrates the same attributes but with 5% less power. Can BMC bring a team that can set a relentless pace that tires the whole peloton out leaving TJ to diesel his way to victory? No!! They just don’t have a team of Mick Rodgers, Vasil Kiriyenkas or Ian Stannards. So maybe bring a jaded, after the Giro, Gilbert for some colour. If he’s in form he will certainly spice up the race for all neutrals and win a stage or two.
Gilbert’s case is odd because he’s been influential in team management before, helping a coup to oust John Lelangue. I suppose the problem for Gilbert was the opening time trial, he might have been a good pick for a stage win on the Mur de Huy but he would not take the yellow jersey and hold it. In any case his leg is broken.
A lot of criticism of BMC and faceless workhorses. Their strategy worked well when Cadel won the tour. And worth noting that Gilbert only has one Tour stage from four years ago – his success is far from a sure thing.
Cadel’s success was as much about Cadel’s guts and steadfast refusal to give up as anything. And the fact that Andy Schleck was a terrible ITTer. The fact remains, as Richard S said, that Tejay flatters to deceive. Even with a 35 second head start on Froome in the Dauphine he conspired to lose it. BMC can’t have much confidence that come JUly he will be there slugging out it with the biggest of big boys. On the contrary, “hanging on to the back” sounds much more reasonable.
Time is on his side. Sure he’s not a scintillating rider with a giant charisma off the bike but give him a long TT on the 2016 or 2017 route and he’s good for a podium.
Agreed, Inrng. I’m not a fan of his, but he’s 26!!. Cadel won at 33, Wiggins at 32, Froome at 28 and Nibali at 29. He should be given at least until after the tour 2017
Just one note here as I’m late to the thread. nationalism aside from here in California.
plainly stated, BMC sells more bikes in the US then in Belgium!
TJ is the BMC GC guy and they need to support him as best as possible. He will not win the TDF but his paycheck does not reflect that he will be on the podium at the end of the race.
TJ’s job is to help BMC sell bikes in country with 300 million people.
Talking of which, Specialized have just supplied Cavendish and Sagan with brand spanking new aero Works Venge bikes.
Very nice.
The Tour continues in its finest capitalist traditions.
This story of Gilbert’s broken leg is somewhat strange anyway. It is said this comes “probably” from his crash in the flèche, but he did an excellent giro in the mean time. Apparently, it just annoys him when climbing steps at home.
It is true that Gilbert was a good pick to win one stage or two on basis of his giro’s form, but this would have probably spent him completely for the end of the year classics and worlds. So it is maybe better to recover a bit now.
So what you need is 8 Geraint Thomas’s?
I read this article as being slanted more towards GC teams where the decisions are more finely balanced – ie you win time in the mountains, but need to balance mountain goats with “guards” for the flat and cobbles. Whereas (and although it was mentioned) life is so much easier for sprinters / teams that only go for stage wins as they pack the teams purposefully for those handful of stages.
This in a way is common sense, but leads me to thinking, How many teams actually have selection dilemmas? ie how many are genuinely going for GC? I guess Astana, Movistar, Saxo, Sky, FDJ? Possibly BMC, AG2R as well?
The dilemma I suppose for Alpecin is whether to go for a 9th roleur or chuck Barguil in? (Please go for Barguil)
It’s almost certain Barguil will ride.
Fascinating stuff, thanks. One thing’s for sure they’ll be some disappointed riders over the next few weeks, much like Millar last year.
Interesting that you raise the possibility that Porte and Konig might not feature for Sky – I had thought Konig was brought in specifically for the mountain train in the tour and Porte has always previously been Froome’s right hand man. If Porte is left out surely that’s a big blow for him as I would have thought that his Giro abandon was all about the Tour.
Perhaps you have some insider knowledge? Then again I suspect that not even Dave B is sure of what their best tour team would be….
After the Giro I cant see Porte or Konig being in the teams. Especially in Konig’s case after his complaining about his suppressed heart rate; he’s tired after the giro and maybe a liability. Porte, well can Sky afford another Jour Sans? Unless of course Froome throws his rattle out of the pram and demands his ‘mate’ joins him, in much the same he demanded that Wiggo was left at home leaving Sky with no Plan B last year. Think Froome may have used up his favours with Sky management. I’m thinking Boswell, Deignan and Pouls are good mountain picks for my team and of course Thomas – Pro-Rider 2.o.
I doubt they’ll risk Boswell, who was very impressive at the Dauphine, because it’s a big step up from that to a three-week Grand Tour. I’d also assumed Porte and Konig might be omitted after the Giro.
Froome, Thomas, Kennaugh, Kiryienka, Rowe, Poels, Stannard, Roche and either Deignan or Sivtsov, maybe?
has Stannard looked a bit below his usual self recently?.. really hope he gets himself into shape in time
One other point left out above for brevity was experience. If in doubt a team will often pick an older rider and the average age of Tour teams is often among the oldest all year. As good as someone might be in the Dauphiné, first doing a smaller grand tour helps. But then we go back to the sponsor/economics and having a US rider might be good for Sky/Fox.
I wonder if Porte would be miffed to ride Le Tour in support of Froome? After the Giro, I can’t help but wonder if he would hope to be tabbed for the Vuelta squad. If he goes to the Tour, he’s lost his shot of leading a GT squad for the year.
Apart from the shot he had in the Giro?
You can’t really compare Porte and Koenig, as Porte skipped the last brutal week of the Giro so should be much fresher than Koenig. Also, even if you believe the myth of the Jour Sans, it’s not such a problem for a super domestique to have compared with a team leader. Also given Froome’s recent win at the Dauphine, I would say his stock with Team Sky management would be as high as ever.
Surely Sky will need a number 2- incase of emergency alternative GC contender. This has to be Porte, some bad luck in the Giro but great form and like you said missed the hard last week.
If not Porte then who else? Would he also not function as a super domestique in the high mountains, climbing with the best of them.
Exactly, if Froome falls off in the first week again as he’s wont to do (stage 3 looks especially dicey for him given what happened in FW earlier this year), Porte could be a good option, probably not going to threaten the podium but like Koenig in the Giro could still put on a credible performance.
Geraint Thomas who is on the verge of winning the Tour de Suisse?
Millar’s sell-by date was long past last year. He should have been retired years ago. That he wasn’t speaks volumes about Johnny’s management abilities and it amazes me that so many were mesmerized my that whole three piece suit and argyle smoke screen.
Retired before or after his stage win in 2012?
directly afterwards. That would have been as close of chance to going out on top…
Millar epitomised another type of rider who didn’t get a mention in the piece above (perhaps because their existence is a myth?) – the experienced head to call the shots on the road when everything’s going to pieces, and to ensure the regular tasks that help shepherd the more important riders about get done. We all know that you never, ever, let your leader get caught behind a split in the peloton, but it happens all the time – having a gobby, tactically aware rider like Millar who can still do at least a reasonable job of work is one way of moving the odds in your favour. Eisel seems to do a similar job elsewhere without being an outstanding diesel or climber.
Spin 9 plates for 3 weeks and try not to smash one.
All the more awkward this year with the wild opening week.
Perfect, thanks.
‘It’s reminiscent of Napoleon’s story where he said his army had plenty of good generals already, what he needed was lucky ones’
That’s so so true.
Surely the Sky mountain train is almost equivalent of a sprint team lead-out with the strategy of eliminating all but the strongest every day and therefore a manpower priority. This in turn reduces the number of rivals and lessens the need to worry about pulling back breaks because they will be very unlikely to contain anyone of importance for the overall. On the flatlands the GC teams can leave it to the clear sprint teams such as Etixx and Giant.
On punctures, is not a spare wheel and/or chase back just as likely on hillier terrain?
Yes, but the point is that if you flat on level terrain and you have no rolleurs then you will struggle to pace your leader back to the peleton
But in the hills you may need someone wheels, more specifically someone from your team!
For which you have a mountain domestique to give you the wheel.
I believe INRNG is trying to say is that if you fill your team with just mountain domestiques, you will struggle in the scenario I mentioned above.
Exactly. It’s easy to think you need a lot of climbing support because these stages are so crucial but there’s only so much help needed here, once you have one or two helpers it’s covered.
A team of mountain guys won’t be much help in the first week of this Tour. Or in the 28kms TTT. Sky, for example, can’t afford to be losing 30-60 seconds as they have been doing in these recently.
Porte and Konig would help that pathetic Dauphine TTT performance more than any other domestique climber for Sky which has to be a big factor.
That would be the same Porte and Konig who were part of that just-as-poor TTT showing at the Giro, presumably?
You have to finish TTT with 5 riders two are not enough,you shoud know that.
I’ve always admired Orica’s ability to focus on specific acheivable targets… and then hit those targets repeatedly. Never understood why some of the smaller budget teams haven’t attempted something similar. Orica seem to be able to hijack the first week of grand tours at will.
Likewise, they do very well again and again. It’s amazing they still have that “Greenedge” or “Your name here” tag rather than the co-sponsor they want.
There has been a suggestion made that the team weren’t competing in the recent Tour of Korea just to dominate the race or because Caleb Ewan is half Korean. Some have profited the team is sniffing out new sponsorship opportunities there. I know Samsung sponsor MTN, so there clearly is interest in cycling from big Korean companies.
Samsung also sponsor Trek from memory…
It’s surprising to me that one of the large Korean car manufacturers hasn’t gotten on board with someone.
A car manufacturer advertising their products via an alternative vehicle that gets you across town more quickly, more cheaply, and doesn’t have parking issues when you get there? That might be… suboptimal.
Hyundai auto used to sponsor Team CSC back in the late nineties.
And let’s not forget Peugeot (originally bicycles), Renault and Ford did so too in Europe.
More so than Koreans, super-rich Chinese companies should sponsor some teams, but there aren’t many Chinese brands to be marketed in Europe’s consumer markets. If only there was a popular sausage making company and a Chinese rider who could ride like Eddy,….
As you say, there really are two different selection choices for teams.
For the larger teams it’s about achieving a goal of a target jersey or GC podium, but for the smaller teams it’s about having individuals who can lose a tonne of time on one day, but target a couple of stages each and try to make an impression on the race.
I do wonder what the likes of mid-tier teams, such as Cannondale-Garmin, can do. If they ‘let’ Dan Martin and Talansky lose time in week one to shine on key stages they could do well. How does that stack up against the slow return of a lower top 10 spot?
A little off topic but, it surprises me that we don’t hear more of wildcard Pro Conti teams making deals of support with a bigger team. Imagine 10 to 16 teammates supporting a GC rider when it really matters in return for a podium placing or two.
Relatedly why have rich owners never done what Red Bull did in F1 and create a feeder team (Torro Rosso), to 1. develop talent and 2. support the main team in GTs. Sky in particular would benefit: Team Sky for marginal gains Froome/Porte/Konig/Nieve stage-racing ambitions, and Team 21st Century Fox for more relaxed atmosphere and Thomas/Kennaugh/Swift/Stannard one-day and stage win ambitions.
A little tongue in cheek but, why spend $ on a feeder team when you can just introduce them to your doctor? And, really, doping testing is further behind and doping is easier than ever, I doubt a doctor is involved except for top riders.
There’s a specific rule in place to prevent the possibility of a feeder team exosting and helping out a senior team.
Feeder teams (or teams with similar links to another team) are not allowed to compete in the same event as their ‘first’ team. A few years back, there was some debate around a tour of somewhere like utah when it was realised that the ‘livestrong’ development team couldn’t participate in the same race as its senior team of the time – radioshack.
This is also why the precise rule that got porte docked 2 mins for taking clarkey’s front wheel exists!!
The reason Porte and Clarke were penalised in the Giro, were because of scenarios exactly like this.
No, I mean organized and agreed before the race or tour even starts. Or, maybe that did happen?
that would be most unwelcome.
This is against the rules.
so is doping…
Not quite sure what your point is. It is a consequence of any rules that some will try to break them. At the team level you would have to be dumb as a rock to do as this guy is suggesting. It would also be very easy to spot if every time someone needed help A N Other team always seemed to be there.
Not the brightest idea I’ve ever heard.
Very interesting thanks. Tinkoff does not need to bring many climbers knowing that Sky and Astana will chase down every break in the mountains, and Contador can just latch on the to end of their trains?
I’ll be interested to see how Sagan’s role develops this July. Is he allowed to seek the stage over the cobbles or is he there to help Contador? The green jersey isn’t Oleg’s priority but, if he doesn’t win it, does he get criticized by the owner still? If Contador is too worn out by the Giro to win, does the pressure slide to Sagan? The good news for Sagan is that he seems to need little team support to win.
Sagan’s problem may be that by the time Contador is too tired, the chances of Green may have slipped through the fingers.
Sagan dominated the green in the past couple of years with virtually zero help from Cannondale, so he’s shown that he can ‘lone wolf’ it.
Maybe he will be able to chase the green and leave Bertie with the other 7 men helping him.
And another point. Wasn’t it Wiggins in 2012 who complained that he was on such form going into the Tour that the first week of racing flatter stages made him lose some of his form as the intensity and pace was less than his training efforts in the build up?
He may well have claimed that… but if we were to believe that he would totally have us.
How many bodyguards does a team need for the flat stages? In recent years Sky have assigned just one rider to look after the team leader during flat stages rather than trying to get the whole team near the front of the peloton. It was Knees for Wiggins in 2012 and Stannard for Froome in 2013. I don’t know who was supposed to be doing that job last year, but they didn’t do a very good job as Froome was sprawled on the road every five minutes.
It was David Lopez I believe.
They’re supposed to help him stay near the front, not remind him which way to lean in corners!
It seems to me that SKY have the biggest dilemma as they have the strongest team to choose from .. and alot of people here are putting through the argument based on what happened at the Dauphine…but alot of team leaders rode very poorly at the Dauphine….its not a great (or only) indication of what will happen in a 3 week Grand Tour
It is clear a team needs to be strong on the flat/rolling stage as in the first 9 stages there is hardly a mountain in sight …Also there is a strong possibility of crosswinds & then there are the cobbles…..If you have a team full of light climbers then you may pay a high price
Next you do need climbers of course especially for the last week….At the Dauphine SKY through everything at the MTN stages …in the Tour you need to be able to ride well in the 3rd week…so stamina is an important consideration and that veers toward riders with more experience of riding Grand Tours and being strong in the last week ….
Also you need to avoid crashes and mishaps …..this is very important as we saw with SKY at the Giro ….riders who are vigilant and have a sixth sense of staying out of trouble are very useful to guide the leader or be on hand when things go wrong
A strong TTT is essential but SKY’s TTT in the Dauphins was a result of poor execution rather than strength and that can be corrected
If I were SKY I’d pick the strong men first and opt for Stannard, Rowe, Kiriyenka & Thomas
Then the mountain guys Porte (if fit),Poels, Roche & Henao
With Thomas, Roche & Heano able to swap roles as is necessary and parcours require
Konig & Nieve I wonder about because of the Giro and wonder will they still be strong in the final week where they will be required
Kennaugh is the real dilemma ….how strong will he be in the 3rd week , can he swap roles and how good at protecting the leader on the flat ..will he be consistent everyday ..I suppose you could say the same about Rowe but his leading role will be less by the 3rd week
And don;t forget the SKY riders who are prone to crashes…will they still be standing by week 3
+1 think I agree with all of the above.
In the case of Kennaugh I would think to not pick him is basically to tell him his services are no longer required by Sky.
But you pick your team based on requirement not on sentiment ..He is only 25 …lots of riders don’t ride their first Tour till later and he is still young enough to have several Tours …
How many Grand Tours has he ridden and where has he come ?? Also how consistent was he, how did he do in the last week and if you bring him who do you leave out …In my selection above I leave Konig , Nieve & Deignan out and all have very good reasons to be there also…
Not called a dilemma for nothing
kennaugh’s contract is up this year, can’t see him being left out of the team.
What about Sky’s leader for the Vuelta ?
Not Froome presumably, or will it ?
In which case it isn’t CF, you’d assume Richie Porte – who surely can’t do all three Grand Tours ?
Will Sky be thinking one Tour at a time, or with a consideration to the Vuelta ?
And will mean Oleg make Contador do all three ?
Questions, questions….
The most important race for SKY is the Tour de France and Porte is required to support Froome …he has had his opportunity at the Giro
As for leader of the Vuelta ….one tour at a time but there are lots of riders at SKY looking for the opportunity
Contador is not riding the Vuelta but who knows maybe Froome will
Ha! Froome will..
I see Froome leading the Vuelta – regardless of his result in the TdF. Cyclists only have a limited window to rack up those GT wins. I’m sure Froome knows that and if one or two of the others skip it…. its all to the good.
Konig is the man they need most for TdF,
I wonder whether they will be at a pre-Tour camp practicing TTT b/c that’s what needed to improve execution.
There is a Tour camp …probably starts Wednesday ……need to decide the team to practice TTT…of course will need reserves
Not a bad selection estimate that Maria – 7/9.
Missed Kennaugh and Konig only.
Actually that Sky team looks strong, both on the flat, TTT, and in the mountains.
Really looking forward to this now.
I put Kennaugh back in later as he is riding very well
I only wasn;t sure about Konig because having ridden the Giro
But a very strong team and should be exciting
should MTN bring their ‘all-star’ sprint squad (who haven’t delivered thus far) of their climbers (who have) ?
As they are primarily stage hunting, I suspect they will bring both. In truth, they don’y have either the horses for setting up a real spring train nor the finisher. They have enough to place their ‘sprinter of the day’ in decent position and hope for the best. On the flip side, they have a couple of climbers who will take turns trying to win from the break or maybe going after the polka dots but they’re not going to need the support of a GC candidate in the mountains.
I just don’t see TJ on the podium. He wishes he could have cadel’s results. Don’t forget , Gilbert was left out for his injury remember? 😉
Don’t forget the time bonuses !
They could be really vital this year.
Froome seems to possibly lack that punchy acceleration that Nibali, Contador and Quintana have, so he may be looking to have gruelling mountain trains, in which case Sky could load up on climbers – Porte, Poels, Thomas.
But, with the time bonuses in the first week staying away from GC contenders, the mountains really do assume more importance as podium places there are paramount.
Or will it just come to a slug fest between the Big Four over the last km ??
Does anyone have a feel for who Cannondale-Garmin (or is it the other way ’round?) may choose? So far this season, it appears the results have been sparse.
Talansky with Martin for stage wins?
Fascinating stuff, think Froome will walk it if, & it’s a big if, he gets through the opening week. Can’t see the value in Roche & I think Thomas is the nearest Sky have to a plan b.
It was easy in the old days, just pick the 9 best dopers!! (sarcasm).
Froome Porte Thomas Eisel Poels Deignan Roche Siutsou Kyrienka would be my fantasy team sky selection today. Ask me again tomorrow and it will undoubtedly have changed. Certainly don’t envy the managers and DS’ when it comes to grand tour team selection. Thanks inrng, this is going to be a useful distraction until the Tour begins
I like your team…heavy on GT experience and stamina
I guess there are going to be alot of disappointed riders whatever ways it goes
I’d go with froome, Porte, Thomas, Roche, poels, eisel, kyrienka, kennaugh, Rowe
Froome, Porte (if fit), Thomas, Roche, Poels and Deignan seem absolute certs from the way Sky have been organising so far this year. This leaves 3 spots. Will they go with Eisel as road captain? To my mind this would be a mistake. I would love to see Suitsou and Kiry there (two of the best engines there are) but don’t get the impression they both will be. Do they go with Brits Kennaugh and Rowe? For my money Kennaugh gets in over Rowe. And what of climbers like Nieve, Lopez and Sergio Henao?
My Sky TdF selection would be: Froome, Porte, Thomas, Roche, Poels, Deignan, Kiryienka, Kennaugh, Lopez.
I like this team…I think you can bring Kennaugh if you bring some stalwarts to back him up…I am not sure about Lopez though…how’s his form??…As there are cobbles prefer Stannard or Rowe although Lopez is a very good dom
Some people are suggesting solely on riders ability…but just like the TTT its should be on role and how the team functions as a whole…a few top climbers are needed but not more than 4 as become superfluous in my book
At the Giro SKY did not ride as a functioning team and paid for it …that needs leadership and that is the value of Roche as someone said earlier they could not see his value..I am pretty certain if he is picked he will go as road captain
I could see Stannard going, if only for the first week. Then drops out.
He’s had a long old season after his injury last year.
But a solid and experienced man to guide CF and number 2 (Porte / Thomas) through the cobbles and also good for the TTT.
Just watched AC’s mad descent in Route de Sud. Jesus, flying.
Who’s Sky’s best descender ?
Sorry to reply to my own point but the Queen Stage on Route de Sud did have time bonuses.
I think that is why AC really went for it on the descent. Made for great racing and spectacle again. And it has probably won him the title there.
The time bonuses is a topic touched upon here recently ; some for, some against.
But I think there’s been some great stages recently because of the time bonuses.
I feel that the Tour will really benefit from them.
I also think the Tour will benefit from time bonuses and make the racing more competitive and harder especially in the first week…..sever rollling stages have bonusesseconds and will favour riders like Vlaverde , Purito & Nibali who will try to mop them up ….The first stages do not suite Froome, Quintana or even Contador
Best thing in my opinion is for a team like SKY to try and mop the bonus seconds up by getting riders up the road …this may also influence the selection and will no doubt decide alot in some team
Fro instance Valverde & Dan Martin should, if no adverse events get alot of those bonus seconds from the rolling stages and help their leadership case
Great review thanks Inrng,
No question this is period of time that separates the good DS’s from the not so good DS’s
Lots of homework and rider evaluations going on this next week.
Wondering about the Option B thing. Do GC teams seriously plan for Option B?
In reality, they either became a resource of power struggle within team (Contador as BigTax’s option B for example) by stolen team leader’s glory out right or by having people wondering if the B option is actually better than the team leader (Froome and Wiggo); Or they just fall flat and didn’t deliver. In my limited knowledge of cycling History, I can’t see any Option B that worked the way they are supposed to work.
Mostly, somebody bought along for other reasons got talked up as option B by purely coincidence.
My guess… Eisel, Thomas, Pouels, Roche, Stanard, Froome, Porte, Kiryenka, Kennaugh
I’d bet on Kennaugh riding for Sky, all things considered.
For all this Sky selection chat, Movistar will have an interesting dynamic. Will the self-styled best rider of his generation be happy to ride for Quintana?
So glad there is at least another team riding this years big race!!
I doubt Valverde will be happy riding for Quintana …and I imagine those first stages will really put the cat among the pigeons for Movistar as Valverde could end up in yellow and may have the team ride for him…gossip says he is more popular in the team than Quintana
actually, as much as we Brits love to do the Sky thing to death… Movistar, Saxo and Astana all have interesting choices to make.
Movistar put Anton, Visconti, Inxausti, Fernandez and Izaguirre all in the Giro, Saxo similarly with Rogers, Basso and Kreuziger, and Astana with Kangert, Landa, Rosa, LL Sanchez and Tiralongo. So I would guess there is going to be quite a lot of doubling up away from Contador.
I really like the shape of this Tour though with the first 9 days looking so different to what follows. Nibali showed last year how much you can take on a flat stage if you focus on it (which I guess inks Boom and Westra onto their teamsheet), and I can really see Maria’s above dilemma for Movistar unfolding if Valverde gets going on the cobbles, or in a windy split and goes into the 1st rest day with a couple of minutes on Quintana, yellow jersey or not. Do Movistar target 1st day yellow with Dowsett/Malori, or is that too secondary to their grander plans?
Does a surging Sagan wait for Contador on the cobbles or in the wind? G did a huge turn on the cobbles last year for Porte I recall… lots to mull over…
AValverde always is always No1 in HIS team in his mind. Will AV send NQ up the road on a suicide breakaway as the sacrificial lamb (to Sky’s deight) again, as per 2012, if he’s feeling challenged for team leader? In 2012, the problem was that the day after NQ’s solo neither AV or NQ had the legs to put an isolated Froome to the sword! NQ then rode past AV on GC in the final week but had already lost too much time to Froome after his solo.
Surely by now AV should get flicked by most of the other GC riders as surely they’ve learned his tactics by now? AV is predictable the way he races. There’s only so many time you can let the same guy guy refuse to work, claiming he’s pooped, then watch him either jump you 200m up the road or win the sprint from your group! (i.e. TDF 14, Romandie 14, Wc RR 14, LBL 15)
Quintana also attacked on Mont Ventoux, but got reeled in by Froome.
Quintana is still the most exciting prospect for me. I hope his team do ride for him as really think he could destroy everyone in the mountains with the right tactics and support…