Who Will Win The Dauphiné?

Friday, 5 June 2015

Last year’s race was one of the best races of 2014 and coming on the back of a thrilling Giro means this year’s Critérium du Dauphiné has a lot to live up to. But all the ingredients are in place with a varied, mountainous route and startlist packed with big name contenders for the Tour de France.

In order to think about the winner, let’s first look at the route:

  • Stage 1: a hilly circuit race around Albertville, home of the 1992 Winter Olympics using the lower slopes of the Col de Tamié
  • Stage 2: is for the sprinters via a first category climb along the way
  • Stage 3: 24km team time trial
  • Stage 4: for the sprinters but with disruptive late climbs
  • Stage 5: a mountain stage with the 2,250m Col d’Allos before the Pra Loup summit finish
  • Stage 6: a hilly route with the Vercors plateau before the uphill finish in Villard de Lans
  • Stage 7: a giant mountain stage with almost no flat and a summit finish at Le Bettex
  • Stage 8: a route up the mountain valleys before the uphill climb above Modane

In summary it’s for the climbers as there’s no individual time trial. Even the sprinters’ stages have climbs and the second half of the week is one mountain stage after another. There are time bonuses of 10-6-4 seconds for all stages except the TTT.

The Contenders
Now for the picks. It feels a lot like a stone-age cave dweller looking up at the skies: you can see plenty of stars but have no idea what it all means. Chris Froome, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa and others light up the startlist but who knows what shape they are in? Many coming into the Dauphiné having spent May training so there’s no form to guide expectations, at times it sounds like a summer sale as riders announce they’re “I’m at 90%”. Others come from the Giro and could be rinsed but a few will carry strength into this race.

Chris Froome

Chris Froome is the obvious pick. Froome’s form isn’t known and he’s had a mixed season, beating Alberto Contador in Andalucia but being dropped on the climbs in the Volta a Catalunya before finishing third in the Tour de Romandie. Briefly unstoppable in stage races things went wrong this time last year when the “Crash Froome” side emerged and he’s far from the certain prospect of previous seasons, and all the more interesting for it. He’s won this race before as a stepping stone to his 2013 Tour de France win. He was giving it everything in last year’s race before an innocuous fall late on a stage left him sore and at a disadvantage. Now he can get back into winning mode again. Sky are likely to do well in the team time trial and could place a rider in yellow from Stage 2. This is almost a problem as they’re forced to defend for the rest of the week but that’s still a luxurious position. It’ll be interesting to see how the team fares as a whole too. Is Nicolas Roche playing a supporting role and can Peter Kennaugh, still 25 for a few days, show more of the promise many see in him?

Alejandro Valverde returns after a long rest. He’s a voracious rider and the only major grand tour rider who enjoys one day races. A one day race with plenty of climbing and time bonuses is well within his grasp. But as an old-school Spaniard will he want to win this race? For years riders feared peaking too soon and delivering in Dauphiné meant turning stale come July. But perhaps Valverde needs to win or at least shine because Nairo Quintana is supposed to be the Movistar leader for the Tour de France but Valverde has been making noises about joint leadership and success here could bolster his cause.

Vincenzo Nibali

Vincenzo Nibali was off the pace a year ago but it was all part of the plan. The scenes of him being dropped on the Col du Béal while Alberto Contador and Chris Froome attacked each other looked bad but can now be rationalised as part of a plan. He’s likely to follow this but watch closely because he’s still an instinctive racer who will have a go for the fun of it. Rein Taaramäe, Michele Scarponi and Lieuwe Westra ride in support and it’ll be interesting to see their collective level.

Joaquim Rodriguez

One rider in need of a win is Joaquim Rodriguez. “Purito” is 36 now and if he’s less prolific he’s still a very active racer with the Tour of the Basque Country to his name and a podium place in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Accompanied by a solid Katusha team including Giampaolo Caruso, this year’s route suits him as does the fight for time bonuses.

Rui Costa

June rhymes with Rui Costa. He’s won the Tour de Suisse for the last three years in a row, that’s him dropping everyone on the final climb, and he’s now opted for the Dauphiné. The same again? Perhaps not as the French switch is designed with the Tour de France in mind so he’s aiming to peak later.

Andrew Talansky

Andrew Talansky won the race last year after going on the attack while Froome and Contador marked each other. It was a gutsy triumph and not a lucky stroke, he was climbing with the best on the other days too. He’s coming back into form now after showing in the US Championships. “The Pitbull” can be single-minded when it comes to winning so it’ll be interesting to see the cohabitation with Cannondale-Garmin team mate Dan Martin who will find the course to his liking and the Irishman is out of contract at the end of the year and a result helps. (As ever the team seem to announce their team as last as possible so whether both start is provisional)

tejay van garderen

Tejay van Garderen needs a win soon. Groomed as America’s stage race star he’s been having a hard time cracking the final part but the BMC Racing team know his talents; he was only an energy gel away from the podium in the Tour last year. He’ll miss the absence of a solo time trial and is better over three weeks so watch to see if he on track but a strong ride here would be ideal to rally to the troops. Old man Samuel Sanchez rides and can still climb well. Rohan Dennis wants to be a GC rider and has thrived in this race before, we’ll see more in the high mountains.

Orica-Greenedge bring Simon and Adam Yates “for stage wins” but given they’re not going to be disputing the flat sprint finishes it means they’ll be fighting with the best in the mountains. Orica-Greenedge excel in the team time trials so the twins could come on the big days and even take the race with the time bonuses. Assuming one or both can string consistent results all week a result is possible.

Romain Bardet

Ag2r return with their stars of last July Jean-Christophe Péraud and Romain Bardet. Only Péraud is exactly where he was a year ago, chasing form right. Only now with the added stress of the approaching Tour de France where he’s expected to perform. Bardet is better with reports of progress and confidence but aiming for July so this might not be his race, as he said he’s “at 90-95%, like everyone else”. It’s still a race dear to the team, their service course is in the region but they’ll bomb in the team time trial. They were dire in the Tour de Romandie TTT and Bardet said this was an “alarm call” but these things take months and even years to turn around. Instead climber Alexis Vuillermoz could be their stage poacher, the ex-MTBer is improving on the road and recently won the GP Plumelec, hardly a famous race but Vuillermoz the climber bested the rest.

Where’s Wilco Kelderman? He had a great Dauphiné last year but on the back of the Giro. Now he’s coming into the Dauphiné fresh to build for the Tour. But he’s fluffed a few chances early this year.

Lotto-Soudal bring Tim Wellens. If the team are “divorcing” Jurgen Van den Broeck because he’s not supplied the results, it could also be because Wellens is a very promising rider. He won the Eneco Tour aged 23 and was second on two stages in the Giro. Paris-Nice was solid this year and he’s one to watch, an unlikely winner but a lively racer.

Trek Factory Racing’s Bauke Mollema is suited to this race given all the climbing and no need to do a time trial. His season is built around the Tour de France so watch what he does, especially in relation to the likes of Froome and Nibali.

IAM Cycling bring Mathias Frank rather than have him race the Tour de Suisse. It’s all about planning for the Tour de France and the climber is another to watch while new recruit Jarlinson Pantano should be in the mix on the hilly days.

MTN-Qhubeka’s Steve Cummings doesn’t make the headlines but he’s been consistently good in tough, hilly stage races while team mate Louis Meintjes is a promising climber.

Pierre Rolland has been targeting this race. Europcar won’t set the team time trial alight but Rolland wants a mountain stage and more. Expect a big bold breakaway later in the week.

Among a few others Cofidis’ Spanish exile Dani Navarro wants a top-10, Bora-Argon 18’s Dominic Nerz is still tipped as a German stage race hope, Jesper Hansen and Robert Kišerlovski are Tinkoff-Saxo’s leaders and will Rafael Valls prove to be that one hit wonder with his Tour of Oman mountain top win?

The Others
There are not many sprint stages and consequently there are not many sprinters. Nacer Bouhanni needs a big win after signing for Cofidis for more than a million euros but so far delivering the kind of results that must have team management wishing they were paying him in Rupiah rather than Euros. Giant-Alpecin’s Luka Mezgec rides after a quiet Giro. Lampre-Merida bring Sacha Modolo. Don’t forget Lotto-Soudal’s Kris Boeckmans, due a World Tour win.

Julian Alaphilippe is back after a short, it’s odd timing as he had a busy April and May, returns to racing here but will go away after and plan for the Vuelta later this year. Edvald Boasson Hagen is back to winning ways, he’s heavier and more sprint focussed so don’t expect mountain stage wins from his Team Sky days but he’s a good pick for Stage 1 already.

Chris Froome
Alejandro Valverde, Vincenzo Nibali
Rui Costa, Joaquim Rodriguez
Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Bauke Mollema
Adam Yates, Kelderman, Wellens, Rolland, Bardet, Frank, Cummings

TV: the stages finish at varying times with some slated for around 2.45 Euro time, others at 5.10pm. The daily preview here will let you know.

It’s an ASO race so you should find it on the same channel as you watch the Tour de France. It’s on Eurosport too and if all else fails you can rely on Cyclingfans and steephill.tv for links to feeds and streams.

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Augie March June 5, 2015 at 3:00 pm

Orica GreenEdge are not bringing any of their time trial heavyweights so I expect BMC to probably take out the TTT given that they are fielding 4 of the 6 guys that won in Ponferrada last year. Be interesting to see how it goes with the Yates brothers, will one support the other or will they be going for different stages?

Anonymous June 5, 2015 at 3:23 pm

Ahh, the lesser spotted Froome comes down to feed from the higher rocky outcrops for its two month season, easily spotted with its ungainly lurch like forward motion.

Anonymous June 5, 2015 at 4:34 pm

well done there

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 11:45 pm

I wonder how many anti-Froome comments are not motivated by an adoration for Wiggins.
Personally, I couldn’t care less about either of them, so it might be a long couple of months on here.
They’re bike riders: unless you have a personal connection with them, you have no logical reason to like or dislike them.

Anonymous June 7, 2015 at 1:47 am

At least one, mine. And, despite no connection, I believe my reasons are logical.

And, by the way, quit using my user name.

SeeingElvis June 5, 2015 at 4:55 pm

I admire Mr. Froome’s acumen but I find watching him painful, at least from an aesthetic point of view. As if he cares that he paints a pretty picture for me.

INRNG, regarding the comment about TJVG being “one energy gel away from the podium:”
as they make energy gels all day long, would it be fair to say that he potentially allowed himself to get in a position (of knock- my moniker is a direct reference to that state, for those who are not familiar) to use poor judgement by not proactively taking in a gel? The discussion then perhaps widens- maturity, focus, etc.
Obviously, we all make mistakes- not singling out the rider, happens to everyone at one time or another, but it is an illustration of how costly a decision- or inaction- can be at such a critical moment. I know there have been times when I needed to take something in, but the very thought of it was sickening.

Thank you, as always for the great review.

The Inner Ring June 5, 2015 at 5:12 pm

Totally agree on the gel thing. I remember an interview with one of the BMC staff, think it was Sciandri, expressing his annoyance that a mistake like this was made.

Shawn June 6, 2015 at 2:20 pm

I seem to remember talk of TJVG not eating enough on the off day before his poor stage. This is similar to Contador’s claim that he didn’t take in enough fluids between stages and, hence, his problems on the penultimate stage of the Giro.

These issues might come back to the team monitoring these details and not leaving it up to a rider’s discretionary judgment. Riders might often be too exhausted to properly keep track of their intake while off the bike.

J Evans June 6, 2015 at 7:55 pm

These sorts of claims always sound like excuses to me: seems more likely than ‘I forgot to eat/drink’.

Watts June 5, 2015 at 7:14 pm

Froome has the climbing style of a rodeo clown, yes. But efficient.

But I think his time trials are a beauty to watch. I remember seeing his TT in his breakthrough Vuelta and thinking who’s this guy? and that flat TT in the TDF ’13, very nice.

How can he look like a stickman in the mountains and a big motor in a TT? It’s so weird.

SeeingElvis June 5, 2015 at 9:10 pm

Good point.
It is because his elbows are tucked in in TT mode.

GB June 6, 2015 at 8:09 am

He has the most astounding elbows! As someone who draws occasionally, Froome is a fascinating example of negative space.

Watts June 6, 2015 at 5:59 pm

You kind of expect the elbows to ‘pop out’ during the TT effort, but alas.

HWSB June 5, 2015 at 4:40 pm

That’s a long TTT and could cause large gaps between SKY/BMC and the rest. Which should allow for some exciting mountain attacking from the contenders later.

The Inner Ring June 5, 2015 at 5:14 pm

There will be a preview for the TTT but it’s not an easy course, it climbs up. Not a lot but enough to suit Sky over Etixx-QS or OGE.

Anonymous June 5, 2015 at 6:25 pm

The grocery getter is gonna win something this year, it might as well be the Dauphine.

sifter June 5, 2015 at 10:09 pm

I loved reading “Dennis wants to be a GC”. Certainly any New Zealander would read that as “good c***” so I sincerely hope it was deliberate!

LeeRF June 5, 2015 at 10:17 pm

‘It feels a lot like a stone-age cave dweller looking up at the skies: you can see plenty of stars but have no idea what it all means.’
Modern man looks up at the stars and still has no idea what it all means 😉

AK June 5, 2015 at 11:52 pm

Wasn’t Costa meant to peak in the Tour last year as well. He got a stomach bug that messed it up, so in hindsight it was good he peaked too soon in Switzerland.
And a typo: it’s no longer the Tour de Franc, they pay in Euros now.

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 12:01 am

And guess where Froome is looking on the main picture.

Sky look like they’ve brought a team for the TTT.

I’d love to see a Yates bag a stage win.

Larry T. June 6, 2015 at 8:07 am

Just like last year, much will be made on what happens in this minor race. And probably like last year most of it will be proven wrong come Le Beeg Shew in July. But one could say the same thing 20 years ago – I can still remember getting an earful about someone who was sure to win (whose name I can no longer recall) based on his performance in what this fellow referred to as “The Daphne”.
Watching Froome ride a bicycle is starting to be like listening to TV’s Heckel and Jeckel – they all might be very good and deserving of every bit of their salary, but it’s far from pretty.

J Evans June 6, 2015 at 8:00 pm

I shall, henceforth, always think of it as ‘The Daphne’.
However, Heckel and Jeckel are not very good and do not deserve their salary: a bewildered old man and his stooge reading from a script – all the while missing what is actually happening. (I do criticise Eurosport at times, but thank my lucky stars that I don’t have to listen to Liggett and Sherwen.)

Richard S June 6, 2015 at 10:38 am

What is this current obsession with team time trials but no individual time trials? Also another sprint, or at least punchy, stage would be nice. Mountain top finishes and mega mountain stages are over rated. I know the Dauphine is a mountainous region so this can’t really be helped here, I’m just moaning in general!

gabriele June 6, 2015 at 3:57 pm

As inrng explained above, it’s a consequence of the Tour. They sort of mimic what riders will get in July, which means that it’s not an “obsession” but simply a “duplication” of what they decide for the Tour. In fact, they had an impressive monstre ITT in 2012, and they used to have in previous years, too. They had a good ITT in 2013, too, while it was more of a prologue in 2014.

It’s not at all a general trend (see this year’s Giro, but last year wasn’t that bad in terms of ITT, either, and 2013 had pretty good ITTs, too; 2012 and 2011 were decent etc.), it’s more like the TdF felt it was suffering a couple – or more – of good blows in terms of relative popularity and decided they needed to follow the Giro’s play as it has been developing during the last ten years (more complicated first week, tricky stages, unconventional terrain, more mountains).
This year they probably exaggerated, due to the characteristics of their rising French talents.

Even if a “different” edition from time to time is fun (like Giro 2009), and even if more balanced and technical courses are totally welcome in every GT, nevertheless I didn’t feel as something *wrong* that every GT had sort of a peculiar *personality*. Although the “Leblanc personality” definitely needed a little “therapy” for cycling’s sake, at least IMHO.
Zomegnan started to trace a new very interesting route, but it was Vegni and his staff who perfected it with more balanced courses and the right proportion of ITT, too.

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 2:38 pm

I don’t like this invisible man approach to conquering Le Tour and I don’t just mean Froome. Nibali seems to be adopting a similar approach. In my humble opinion it does nothing for the sport or to the appeal of pro cycling and does no more than reinforce a lack of trust.

gabriele June 6, 2015 at 3:37 pm

It’s particularly disappointing in Nibali’s case, since he had always been a different kind of rider, and was especially appreciated because of that. Since he was 23, he’s been riding several times two GTs a year, and/or a decent number of shorter stage races in a competitive form (or mood, at least), not to forget various classics and semi-classics, achieving often good top-ten placements (and he isn’t fast at all). Typically, from spring to autumn.

In 2008, 23 years old, he did Giro (11th) and Tour (19th), he won the Trentino, made a top-ten in Liège. In 2009 he focused on the Tour (7th), but made top-tens in Tour of California, Tirreno-Adriatico, País Vasco and Dauphinée. Later in the season he won two very important Italian semi-classics like Camaiore and Giro dell’Appennino. In 2010 he did Giro (3rd) and Vuelta (1st) and was 5th in the Lombardia. In 2011, Giro (3rd) and Vuelta (7th), again, top ten in Liège and Sanremo. Memorable long-range solo attack from the Ghisallo in Lombardia. In 2012 he was relatively focused on the Tour once more, he made the podium behind the Sky duo, still he won the Tirreno and made the podium both in Sanremo (3rd) and Liège (2nd). 2013 was time for his fourth “double GT” in a year, the already classical Giro (1st) and Vuelta (2nd); he won both Trentino and Tirreno, then was 4th in the Worlds.

From 2014 on… everything changed. I guess all was fine last year, hence they don’t want to take risks altering that preparation.
However, it’s a huge pity speaking of a rider that has shown in the past the kind of all-around and all-season-long consistency you can see from the data above (and I didn’t write down a good number of “lesser” races).

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 4:29 pm

Thanks gabriele, very informative. it is as if the experience of winning the Tour completely freezes them as a rider (entertainer). I don’t know of Nibali’s intentions as regard wanting to win multiple Tours but in my opinion as a long term follower of pro cycling I think nothing more of a rider whether he wins 1 or 5 tours. Wiggin’s approach, capability aside, was refreshing in that he had and still has other goals to achieve. The Froome approach just leaves me cold.

gabriele June 6, 2015 at 6:06 pm

I can understand Nibali wants to prove himself at the top level after the competition eliminated themselves last year. Despite his long-term results, many still see Nibali as the “weakest” of the four top GC contenders of recent years, hence I guess he feels the urge to show himself at the start in the best possible conditions. Logically enough, he probably isn’t yet as self-assured as Contador.
That said, I quite share your perspective and I hope (as many Italian fans do) to see Nibali going back to his old habits as soon as possible. Remain to be seen if the team agrees… Maybe Aru could be “useful” in that sense 😉

IMHO, Wiggins is an athlete which deserves even more respect than the arithmetical sum of his victories would imply (which is already impressive), and that’s precisely because of the mixed nature of his palmarès. It’s self evident that he’s *not* among the greatest GC riders: though, it’s equally evident that he’s a great rider, without further adjectives. Albeit hard to classify or to compare, he’s deserved his golden niche in cycling memories, I think. And personally, when we speak of road cycling, I’ve been pretty much more impressed by his last ITT Worlds than by most of his performances in the 2012 Tour.

J Evans June 6, 2015 at 8:58 pm

People are unconvinced by, or undecided about, Nibali because he hasn’t won a grand tour against the very best riders (not his fault). Will be interesting to see how he does this year.
And hopefully then he might go back to a more varied parcours – and, ideally, leave Astana.

Ferdi June 6, 2015 at 9:05 pm

+1 on Wiggo.

Duesseldorf June 6, 2015 at 11:37 pm

Wiggo tried to play the game like most GT winners but failed . Look Giro 2013 or his classics excursion this year .Turned out what was knwon right from the beginning: A media suitable time trial specialist with some climbing abilities
If you want to see impressive palmares check the name Cadel Evans

hoh June 7, 2015 at 1:23 am

Wiggo still wanted to do tour in 2013, just that Sky didn’t let him. Wiggo’s focus on other goals is more a result of he can’t do Tour (with Sky at least) any more. If he’d had his way, it’s very likely that he would have focus on the Tour all the way to his retirement (or a possible return to the track).

Froome, as an interesting counter part, did very much want to try other Grand Tours. If he was to be left with himself, he’d do Giro & Vuelta this year and not to turn up at Tour at all. Granted, he’s no good at one day races.

Larry T. June 6, 2015 at 5:50 pm

It’s a pity, but Nibali’s now wrapped in those “golden chains” and no longer has a lot of say in his program. Wonder how long he’ll be content to concentrate on Le Beeg Shew while cashing those Kazak paychecks vs going somewhere that might pay less but give him more freedom? People like to blame the “all for the Tour” mentality on Greg LeMond but it was only after he was shot and determined he could be good only for a short time each season that he avoided most of the rest of the season. Blame for “all for the Tour” is probably better piled onto BigTex.

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 6:45 pm

Lemond, pre shooting – at least you could see him shedding the pounds and putting in the racing miles. I know training and fitness has developed somewhat over the last 20 years but from a pure fans point of view, seeing a top rider building progress was part of the joy.

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 6:53 pm

I used to love to watch fat Cav during his first race or two of the season and then remember all his detractors’ comments come July..

Stephen June 6, 2015 at 2:42 pm

I thought Quintana was riding in this?
He’s not competed since Romandie as he?

kazan June 6, 2015 at 6:06 pm

No, he is doing Tour de Suisse I think.

gabriele June 6, 2015 at 6:28 pm

Or the Route de Sud along with Contador? I read in some French website that both will be there, and Eurosport is hence broadcasting the race. Quintana has some sweet memories there.

euro June 6, 2015 at 3:35 pm

Is there a more annoying sight than Chris Froome staring down at his SRM, elbows flayed out like a giant goose? No style on that man.

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 6:54 pm

There is Nothing more annoying than Froome, generally.

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 11:46 pm

What has he done to annoy you?

Anonymous June 7, 2015 at 1:57 am

Let’s start with bilharzia..

Froome June 8, 2015 at 8:51 am

You dislike people because they have an illness? Weird.

J Evans June 6, 2015 at 7:38 pm

Movistar need to put Valverde in his place for the Tour de France. He’s shown he cannot win it. Quintana might.

J Evans June 6, 2015 at 7:41 pm

Does anyone really believe that either Talansky or Van Garderen are ever going to win a grand tour?
Would we hear so much about them if they weren’t American?

Anonymous June 6, 2015 at 8:16 pm

Talansky no. Van Gaderen could win a TT heavy course in a few years, but I don’t think we will see one of those for a while seeing as ASO are now obsessed with making the Vuelta look flat

Othersteve June 6, 2015 at 9:07 pm

I feel the time is running out for TVG, he needs to podium sooner rather then later.

Guess we in the new world should support our Columbian cousins!

SeeingElvis June 7, 2015 at 3:10 am

I do not believe that either will podium in a grand tour from here forward.
Just a hunch.

Tovarishch June 6, 2015 at 7:52 pm

Still wondering why Adam Yates gets a ring but Simon doesn’t. Perhaps they should have half each.

Tovarishch June 6, 2015 at 8:46 pm

Sorry to interrupt but I am almost wetting myself listening to Muz TV with Josef Kobzon and various stars of the Russian music scene singing “Astana”. God, it’s awful.

spicelab June 7, 2015 at 3:26 am

People really need to move on from the Froome style fascination.

I enjoy poking fun as much as the next guy but it’s already been discussed to death.

PT June 7, 2015 at 3:40 pm

Quite right. Besides, Aru was positively Froome-esque at times in the Giro and took it to another level by crying at the same time.

NancyA June 7, 2015 at 4:37 pm

+1!

SirDave June 8, 2015 at 8:55 am

Most Froome-hate is powered by Wiggins lovers who cannot get over the fact that their hero was passed over for the better man (in terms of Grand Tours). Sad, but true.

Doubter June 8, 2015 at 11:52 pm

That’s quite a presumption. My dislike for this amazing tt rider and superlative climber (when has that been done before?) has nothing to do with Wiggins.

Not sure why some keep making this contention……some riders are likeable and some less so to certain people.

Ed209 June 14, 2015 at 3:02 am

People don’t make this connection and it’s not a presumption. It’s been plastered clearly and fervently across sites like cyclingnews.com (when they had reader comments on). SirDave also said “Most”, which means that he understands that not every person who dislikes Froome will do so because they don’t like him taking over from Wiggins.

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