A dash to Mont Ventoux. If you want to watch on TV note today’s finish has an early arrival.
The Route: 171.5km and 2,950m. Is it a mountain stage? It’s not a flat stage. Definitions matter as it’s a “Hilly finish” in the race manual which means there are 30 points to the winner in the green jersey company when normally it’s 20 points for a mountain stage. The intermediate point has 20 points for the winner so Jonathan Milan wants to score here to keep the green jersey from Tadej Pogačar.
There are no difficulties to report on the way to Mont Ventoux except some passages through towns with their street furniture, today’s stage has a long list of points durs as ASO call them, “hard points” which are cited ahead of the race. But the Mistral wind won’t blow too much today. Uzès is home to Haribo, if your tastes are more expensive the intermediate sprint is famous for its wines.
It’s uphill to the town of Bédoin and then the climbing begins on the way out through the orchards, it’s not the official climb yet but there’s 4km at 5%.
The Finish: for all the hype associated with Mont Ventoux it’s just a very hard climb, 15km at 8.8% with the first 8km regularly over 10%. Get beyond this long section through the pine forest and the boss level arrives amid the white rocks. This part is easier, first a flat reprieve past the Chalet Reynard, then a gentler 6-7% for a while. It tightens up before the final hairpin and a ramp to the line.
The Contenders: a prestige win, points for the green and polka dots competition, the sun king Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has plenty to gain from today’s stage. So there’s strong chance he’ll deploy his team to mow down the breakaway but it’s still a lot to ask, there’s only so much Nils Politt can do on the flat. He might have help from Lidl-Trek too if the team wants to give Jonathan Milan a run at the intermediate sprint. But otherwise every other team has an incentive to fire riders forward and hope the moves sticks.
The win from the breakaway has to go to a climber or someone who has seen their GC hopes evaporate. Michael Storer (Tudor) is in good form. Ben O’Connor (Jayco) is suited to long climbs but he’s 12th overall and so teams with a rider higher up like EF with Ben Healy won’t want him to take time. As you can see this helps Pogačar.
Several Visma-LAB riders have a chance and it’s been notable how they seem to be freed to race for themselves. So Simon Yates, Matteo Jorgenson and Sepp Kuss come to mind but UAE might want to ride down their rivals too, plus they’re all looking beatable at the Tour.
If Lenny Martinez (Bahrain) can make the break he has a chance. He took his first pro win here in 2023 and obviously the competition is harder but he’s improved since and today there chance to get caught between two stools, he needs the stage win as much as the mountains points. Team mate Santiago Buitrago has been hampered by a crash but can still feature. Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep) is free to race for himself now.
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Pogačar |
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Storer,Martinez, VPP, Jorgenson, S Yates, |
Weather: 28°C and a light Mistral wind, 20km/h from the NW meaning a 3/4 tailwind.
TV: KM0 is at 12.40pm the finish is forecast for 5.00pm CEST.
Postcard from Bédoin
Is there another climb in the Tour de France that attracts eulogy like Mont Ventoux? It’s visually appealing, has seen some great – and infamous – sporting exploits and it is one of the hardest climbs in France.
Let’s escape the clichés at the top because at the foot of the climb is the town of Bédoin, population 3,000. It hosts a thriving cycling economy, a case study in sport and tourism. There are more bike shops than some large cities. Gift shops sell Ventoux-branded jerseys, t-shirts, milestones and more. Guesthouses have cycling-themed names, hotels boast of secure bike rooms. It’s become a destination for cyclists.
There are not many places like this. Bourg d’Oisans plies a similar trade thanks to Alpe d’Huez, Luz-Saint-Sauveur to a lesser extent for the Tourmalet, likewise the Bormio for the Stelvio. Cycling exists as an activity in many other places like Calpe in Spain, Oudenaare in Belgium or the Shimanami Kaido in Japan but Bédoin makes for a different case study as it’s a small place where cycling is big.
One reason is the location, the Vaucluse is a sunny part of France with good – but often windy – weather from March to October making for a longer tourist season. Invest in a fleet of rental bikes and there are customers for potentially eight months of the year rather than eight weeks. Paris-Nice has visited here in March, when other famous mountain passes are still ski runs.
Having a big mountain nearby isn’t sufficient. It needs to be famous. The Fauniera or Nivolet might be bigger challenges with greater scenery; and the nearby Montagne de Lure is a 20km climb without any traffic. But they’re not destinations. Bédoin’s economy is now hitched to the Tour de France because Mont Ventoux has to stay in people’s mind, to see the mountain stage today is to think you’d like to have a go at it one day. Hoteliers and rental shop owners lobby for these repeat visits; the region knows the value of this too.
So far so good but Bédoin isn’t completely transformed into a cycling town. Public transport is modest, for all the cycling the town encourages motoring to get there. Cafes, restaurants, bakeries and ice cream shops tempt cyclists to stop but most don’t have anywhere to prop up a bike and lock it. The local roads are charming but the traffic in places is not. Especially on Mont Ventoux.
As it is 112 km to the sprint it seems likely that UAE won’t have to do the pace setting on their own … and Tim Wellens is handy on the flat.
As long as Milan doesn’t make it in the break
If Lidl-Trek close things down so Milan can win 20 points at the sprint, they risk setting up Pogačar for the win and to take 30. Ideally he goes in the break and scores from there.
Easier said than done and he was looking weak in moments on Sunday’s stage.
I don’t see any chance of keeping the race together for a peloton sprint at the intermediate sprint for all the points. Milan will likely try to get in the break, but his attempts at doing this in earlier stages have not looked great. His best chance might be to hope thst a fairly small group goes up the road and to take what points are available from the peloton sprint.
For all the talk of Pogacar getting revenge wins on Hautacam etc, it was on Ventoux that Vingegaard got the media’s full attention when he dropped Pogacar. I seem to recall Ineos did a lot of the heavy lifting, and van Aert won, but even so an important moment.
Another day and another stage with a different profile. Classic hockey stick, which because of the Green Jersey competition, might result again in a 100 km dash to the intermediate sprint. 50km/h for two hours before the climb might well effect the outcome, but these days it seems to be just another day at the races for the peloton (even though van der Poel himself wondered how guys could recover so quickly).
The winner? All depends on how UAE and Pogacar feel. With no Almeida, probably content to follow,as Visma probably hit the front early. A breakawy win for young Martinez would confirm his bane as “France’s next big hope” and all that entails, Week 3 could throw up a few surprises so we’ll see who can do what van der Poel has a problem with.
Van Der poel has pneumonia and has abandoned.
Unfortunately, Martinez is never going to be a Tour contender though. A stage win today is certainly not out of the question though.
Unfortunately for Lenny, I reckon the only Frenchman who can beat Pog on Mont Ventoux is Romain Dumas.
Ha ha – nice one…though Loeb tested the Peugeot 208 T16 Pikes Peaks car there as well.
Wouldn’t Lenny be better to go all-in on stage 18 and stage 19, from the breakaway. He can pick up a lot of mountain points on those days even if the break is caught. Today looks like a long day in the break for likely little reward. Even if the wiiner comes from the break, others in the break will be better on the final climb than him.
20km/h from the NW meaning a 3/4 tailwind
Could anybody explain for me? Wind from the NW means headwind on the 2nd half of the climb, Right? 3/4 tailwind? I’m just confused
It looks as though the road doubles back for about the last third of the climb.
I imagine our host is referring to the direction throughout most of the stage, which is largely heading due east, and so a NW wind will be a cross-tailwind for most of the day. As you say, the route then turns north-west in the second half of the climb, which could be a fierce headwind. That combination could make for a tough day out!
Yes, a tail/crosswind for most of the stage, the ideal wind to split things up but not so strong. It should be very still on Mont Ventoux today.
Reference term from sail sport, I guess:
Wind direction straight in face = 0/4 wind
Wind direction between face and side = 1/4 wind
Wind direction straight in side = 1/2 wind
Wind direction between side and back = 3/4 wind
Wind direction straight in back = 1/1 wind
Hello from July 21 (still) here in California. Wondering what I will find when I wake. Guessing a very predictable stage with an easily controlled break and a very rapid race to the intermediate sprint. Then Pog smash. Hope I’m wrong and something/someone throws a monkey wrench into the machine (not literally).
@Craig. Off topic. Is monkey wrench in the machine the US version of the English spanner in the works? Or just your line?!
It’s the standard US equivalent – they use wrench for both fixed and adjustable tools here, though I think that people still know what a spanner is
I looked up monkey wrench and was surprised to learn that it goes back to horse and buggy days when wheel nuts were not very standardised … and it gave birth to the Stilson.
You generally say “throw a wrench into the works” (not specifically a monkey wrench) and it’s the equivalent in British English of a spanner being tossed into the works.
Any climbers aiming for the breakaway will surely need one or two higher powered teammates to join them, to give them a chance to pull out a decent gap without wasting too much energy themselves…but my guess is there’ll be enough collective desire to keep the race close together, for both the intermediate sprint and the climb, which will mean another Pogacar win (unless he really is ill!)
I’d have thought very few teams cared whether things stayed together until the intermediate sprint and no more than three teams would want everything together for the climb. Not much point escorting Milan to the former nor Pogacar to the latter…
I’d expect a breakaway to be clear starting the climb, quite possibly by quite a few minutes, which quite probably won’t be enough to keep UAE at bay…
The climb to Chalet Reynard is quite brutal as all who have ridden it will confirm, and from CR onwards eases only very slightly. On terrain like that if Pogacar deserves two rings then Vingegaard must merit one at least.
IR talks of Martinez as the big (little) French hope but with CMA GGM joining Decathlon from 2026 even more pressure is being placed on Seixas. That feels inappropriate for such a young lad.
Seixas is a leap better than Martinez, though. With respect, the latter is never getting anywhere near a Grand Tour win unless there’s a randomly weak Vuelta field and they dispense with TTs.
Related: increasingly feel Remco will be swamped by emerging talent as well – you’d have to have Del Toro ahead of him for likelihood of winning a GT next.
Martinez is still an interesting rider as he’s driven and with room for improvement, he’s also better at TTs than he looks and can get better still. Still, a podium finish in any grand tour is a big ask and grinding out a result this way by finishing, say, 5th on many stages may not be his style.
A Vidberg cartoon in L’Equipe with the weight of French expectations sums it up well:
Even with some improvement, I can’t see him ever troubling the GC in Grand Tours. Jerseys and stages he could win regularly though.
I also agree with DQ that Remco really needs to watch out for the up and coming riders now, if he still has designs on a second GT win.
As I argued yesterday, I agree. Remco will find it difficult to secure his second GT win, even under the best of circumstances.
UAE seems poised to dominate all three GTs for the foreseeable future. Pog and Almeida are 26, Del Toro 21, and Ayuso 22. Behind them, Arrieta, Morgado, Christian, and Torres are developing rapidly, and given the effectiveness of the UAE machine, they are likely to climb several notches in the coming years. Add to this the high-quality and experienced domestiques. Even letting Ayuso go—which I still think is most likely—won’t really change the dynamics.
Vingo might still manage to pull off a punch, but beyond that, the GTs and major tours are UAE’s to lose. Remco will be left holding the bag.
It would be a fascinating GC picture if Pog and Ving suddenly decided to retire. I would put Ayuso and Almeida at the front, but Seixas looks very exciting and we’ve seen what Del Toro and Lipowitz can do. Not sure Remco will be able to climb with all of those guys.
Is he seen by the French media as the chosen one more than the guy who can TT really well and sits 5th on GC? Or is it just the opportunity to win the polka dot jersey that’s created expectations, along with the impression of being an old school pure climber?
It depends on the media outlet. Martinez has been tipped for some time as a promising talent. He’s been hired by Bahrain to be a GC rider, the team boss says they have a plan to win the Tour with him… but he would say that as he searches for a co-sponsor.
Despite looking just like a pure climber it’s not clear what kind of rider he is. Going back to his Paris-Nice stage win, this kind of finish suited, a punchy climb. There were more doubts about whether he can sustain things on long climbs and TTs but we saw at the Dauphiné how he sacked Enric Mas on the way to Mont Cenis.
There’s lots to improve. See how he was dropped on the opening day, his pointless breakaway on the stage to Rouen. Or how he went so hard on the Tourmalet when he only needed to crest it ahead of the others to take points and he faded later etc.
Seixas is undeniably a remarkable talent and, arguably, the standout figure in French cycling future, but Martinez is showing steady improvement as well. His performance in Romandy was outstanding, even though he fell short on the final day. I wouldn’t write him off just yet.
Well, Del Toro has the momentum. But he’s yet to win a grand Tour. The lay over for Remco at the beginning of the year wouldn’t have helped. They winged his form up for early part of the Classics campaign, but that didn’t seem to be sustainable. Might have been better off building up slow instead:
Problem with Vinge is that if he’s there, Pog will be there to out sprint him.
If, however, Vinge ended up there without Pogi in tow or minutes ahead, this Tour would just become very very ve~rrrrr~y intersting.
Ventoux and the day after a rest day, what could go wrong? Unlikely to see a repeat of the 2016 farce but chances are “something” will happen. More demonstrations?
I know it’s unrealistic to expect barriers over the last 15km but the Ventoux climb has considerable potential for problems. The sight of motos and riders opening up a narrow gap at the last second, flags waved over the riders, selfies, so-called fans running alongside… We don’t want another Froome incident, but how can riders concentrate on their performance and strategy with so much havoc all around?
It’s also a massive source of encouragement. Vauquelin did a good interview the other day describing the euphoria it created and how it lifted him.
The encouragement effect of having people cheering and shouting is quite significant. Significant enough that (good) sports studies will control for it – where applicable (e.g., trying to determine maximal capacities). I was a participant in a study a long time ago, and they literally hauled students in to stand around the ergometer/expensive-science-bike in the lab and cheer loudly at me as I did a maximal-effort sprint piece of the study. 😉
Mental effects are a very significant part of performance, I remember learning from the researchers who did that study. 😉
I hope Pollit eats his porridge this morning, will be a busy day for him.
This could be one of those days when someone loses a lot of time and drops out of a decent GC position. After the rest day and one long climb following a potentially manically fast 150km on the flat. It looks designed to mess with someones legs. It won’t be Pogacar, I fully expect him to deliver one of his statement wins.
Unfortunately I think you are right. It could have been a must-see stage, but I’m so sure TP will win that I won’t bother. He’ll add futher margins to the rest of top-10 and may clinch his grip on all 3 jerseys.
Not a ring for Jonas? He talked a good talk on the rest day, for the sake of spectacle i hope he’s right maybe this isn’t the optimal climb for a do or die attack compared to the alpine options? To quote K.Keegan I would love it, just love it, if another GC contender struck out for the win and made it to the line.
Pogačar just seems to have the measure of him… but I did think about it, as if the gap between them is narrowing. If Vingegaard can win, even in a photofinish it would be an exciting turn or at least launch lots of articles about of a reversal of fortune coming up in the Alps.
There is always the chance that Pogacar is slightly sick (it seems to be going round the peloton). If that happens then the favourite becomes Vingegaard (unless he is also sick). If healthy, then it is difficult to see Pogi losing.
I can see Roglič doing his best result here. He was good on mTT, but on hard mt stages with repeated climbs he fades. So maybe unipuerto like this will suit him, but not enough for Vingegaard and Pogačar.
Likely enough for third on the stage, and this could mean climbing a place or two in the GC. This would be a “best-case” scenario.
I have been to Ventoux just once. In 2000. Would it be too much to hope we have 6 or 7 guys knocking lumps out of each other after Chalet Reynard today as well? Probably. Still, they were all supersoldiers juiced to the gills on that day and even today when you watch it back on You Tube it seems remarkable how they are riding like that.
I trust Pog won’t be “gifting” the win to Jonas today as Lance claims he “gifted” it to Pantani?
Surely Thymen Arensman deserves a star? And surely he is the Ineos leader at this point? Wonder if he could pull a certain vintage Landa completed with the “he’s a great climber (in a sprint)” line drop from our esteemed host.
Good point—he faltered a bit toward the end, but he put in the effort and definitely looks like the strongest Ineos rider at the moment.
It may be unfair to Carlos Rodriguez and at least he is maintaining his top-10 position, by my he has been a dissapointment this year. He’s just one step below the expectations he provide himself.
Props to Vingo for the effort, but it’s tough to go up against a rider who can pull off a flawless seven-month season without even breaking a sweat.