The inevitable result, achieved through the most probable tactics: Tadej Pogačar wins Il Lombardia with an attack on the Colma di Sormano with 48km to go. The lack of surprise extended to his nearest rivals who did not dare to follow him, as if they’d decided to settle for second place already.
Many a team took to the start knowing if they didn’t try something different then the result would be obvious. The race raged for the first two hours. Many a team briefing will have insisted on sending a rider or two up the road early in the hope of avoiding a direct confrontation with Pogačar and so the morning break was a constellation of strong names.
Finally a group of 22 riders coalesced in time for the Valpiana climb at which point they had two minutes, with the bunch led by UAE’s Jan Christen. Among those up the road were Eddie Dunbar (Jayco), Dani Martinez (RedBull), Mauri Vansevenant (Soudal-Quickstep), Rudy Molard (Groupama-FDJ), Thymen Arensman (Ineos), Tiesj Benoot and Wilco Kelderman (Visma-LAB), Matej Mohorič and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain) although the latter paid for the efforts just to get there and would soon be dropped.
The breakaway’s lead kept rising with Christen and Finn Fisher-Black tasked with chasing. Three minutes. Four. Four and half. That was substantial and in the moment it looked like a lot for UAE to bring back, especially as they were lacking the likes of Mikkel Bjerg or Brandon McNulty. The was peak suspense for the day. The gap was boosted by a toilet stop for Pogačar and team mates.
UAE massed on the climb to the Ghisallo climb and Rafał Majka led the charge. The breakaway’s lead was down to two minutes as the chapel’s bells rang out with Molard leading the way. With the descent and the scenic tour around the shore of the lake done the gap was just one minute at foot of the Colma di Sormano.
Here the breakaway split with riders launching, but rather than making winning moves they seemed to be scattering uphill like beach-goers fleeing an approaching tsunami, just trying to postpone the inevitable moment they would be caught.
Giulio Ciccone made a move from the bunch but Pavel Sivakov pulled him back and when the Frenchman stood up the pedals soon after to squeeze out the last few watts with 48km to go you could tell what was coming next.
When it came there was no response from the others. Pogačar just rode away, flamboyant in white shorts, his upper body seemingly rocking in different time to his cadence, like some jazz beat.
This was always the most likely scenario, the long climb suiting Pogačar and once away no teams would be left to chase. If Remco Evenepoel and Enric Mas could not follow, they still distanced the rest. Lennert Van Eetvelt joined them to make a trio.
Evenepoel’s lack of reaction to Pogačar could be seen as a resignation but arguably a sign of wisdom. Indeed if the Slovenian is a better climber they’re a lot more similar downhill or on the flat and the Belgian tried to set off in pursuit once the Sormano was done. However this time he could not take back time.
In the streets of Como Pogačar had time to coast and celebrate. He crossed the line, dismounted and raised his bike in the air. Still brandishing his bike, he turned around to look down the finishing straight and still no rival was in sight. Evenpoel arrived over three minutes down, then Giulio Ciccone secured third place thanks to a late move.
The Verdict
Certainly predictable, seemingly inevitable. Watching live there was a moment of doubt as the breakaway kept taking time and UAE alone were left to chase but with still 100km to go the suspense cooled.
Tadej Pogačar finishes his season with his 25th win. Numerically, superficially compares to the modern day record set by Alessandro Petacchi in 2005. But feel the width: in a season of just 58 race days he’s won two grand tours, two monuments, the worlds; then explore each race where he’s often finished several minutes ahead, including the 3m16s margin here in Como. A year ago Pogačar still looked like he and his team could improve and we’ve seen this in evidence since. Pogačar hasn’t yet completed road cycling but he’s not far off, a win in Sanremo, Roubaix and two more in Paris all feel eminently achievable today. All three grand tours in a season? No, not that as he said post-race he needs to respect his team mates and allow them opportunities too. But nothing’s certain, indeed just repeating some of this year’s results again could impress; rivals can only hope for this.
Remco Evenepoel finishes a creditable second. With his Olympic double, a TT rainbow jersey and a podium in the Tour de France this will be a season to savour, especially for the way it was built out of rehab from the Basque crash. But at some point before the year ends he and his entourage will have to think where to go next year and like most others, to find some races Pogačar isn’t doing even if he’ll relish the challenge at times too.
Finally a verbal salute for Domenico Pozzovivo who finished his final Lombardia aged 41. He rode his first Giro di Lombardia in 2005 and has had three top tens. He would have had an unbroken run of starts if his team had been picked in 2009 until 2019, the year when he had a horror crash in training.
In the car home from Flanders this year I was saying to my mate that so long as Van der Poel stayed upright and wasn’t taken out by someone elses crash, I couldn’t foresee any way how he could be beaten at Roubaix. But, I am pretty sure that if Pogacar entered Flanders and Roubaix he would do to MvdP what he did to Evenepoel today. As mad as it is to say in a year when he has won the Giro and Tour with 12 stages along the way, Pogacar is a far better one day rider than he is stage racer.
That is a bold presumption that makes me think.
Rather odd logic.
Sans Pogacar MvdP romped away with Flanders putting a minute into everyone else. Sans Pogacar Evenepoel romped away with the Olympics putting a minute into every else. Evenepoel did the same yesterday, its just that Pogacar put 4 and a half minutes into everyone else. On this form Pogacar would romp away with Flanders, MvdP and all. Roubaix would be tougher but at least we might actually see him pushed somewhere near his limits in that case.
And to think people complain about Sanremo being dull! It was the only race all year that contained race*.
*slight exaggeration. But only slight.
The fact that Sanremo was the, or one of the few, good races this years tells a lot…
C’mon. If you didn’t watch the Vuelta, then you missed the best racing of the year.
@Richard S – still don’t get your logic, especially with Roubaix.
Ok. Paris-Roubaix is a bike race. Because Pogacar is much better at cycling than everyone else I think he would/will win it.
@Richard S. Sorry still don’t get your logic. He may be light years better. But he also needs a huge amount of luck to win Roubaix. So the light years better only gets him so far. Sorry if you don’t understand that.
One thing I think we can all agree on is that it would be nice to see Pogacar race Roubaix.
Pozzovivo 38th @11 minutes will probably be lost in the well deserved Pogacar hype, but what a feat on a tough course at his age of 41.
Great race, even with a more than worthy winner. One has to wonder what next with Pogacar.
My prediction about Hayter proved correct, he was the only INEOS DNF.
It would be interesting to get the perspective of someone such as Pozzovivo, a recent retiree after a long career, on what has changed in recent years. And how/why, if they know. But cyclists never seem to discuss these things, even after they retire. For 95% of Pozzovivo’s career riders attacking with 50km left of a major race was bordering on unthinkable, never mind 100. Now it happens literally every single time. If I watch cycling races for the rest of a long life and never see another long distance solo attack I’ll be very content.
In the days of Froome he seemed to have half of his team with him till about 2 km to go. Pogacar wears his tem out with 50-100 km to go and then just hares off. The way that he backs himself may not be unique but it is close.
Sometimes yes, sometimes no for Froome. Something of a sweeping generalisaiton.
Not in the Giro
That was the best of Froome we ever got. But TdF Froome pretty much fits. Was dull, dull, dull. I wished he raced more a la Giro. But I guess it was down to the other teams as well not (been able to) putting pressure on Sky.
The 2016 crosswind stage to Carcassone stands out. That was pretty cool.
Was that the same Tour when he launched a solo attack over the top of a climb? Caught Quintana & Movistar napping and held it to the line IIRC. Both attacks were spontaneous, opportunistic and impressive.
@Maximflyer Yeah and the descent to the finish off one of the big cols (can’t remember which) when all his rivals were waiting for an attack on the climb. I think people are a little selective at times with their views of Froome (sure he sat in the train plenty too).
If he really wants a tour triple I honestly think this should have been the year to tick it off. If fortune balances out over a career then illness, serious injury, bad luck or a turning-30 existential crisis will eventually have to come for even Pogacar.
Agree. This was the year to do it. Unless Gianetti finds more good stuff in the drawers…
You got it. And I’m sure he will.
Seems it was intra-team politics in the background that prevented a tilt at the Vuelta.
Yeah agree.
I know that Pog never openly said he wanted to ride the Vuelta this year but it seems to be the brewing revolt on UAE that sealed it.
Has that been stated reliably, or was it just gossip on a Slovenian website?
He mentioned that he has to consider his teammates after Lombardia, I think?
Additionally, Geraint Thomas mentioned (in his podcast?) that, after he suggested to Pogačar during a Tour stage that he should do the Vuelta, he declined, saying he had to consider his teammates.
Thanks (excuse my unintentional anon.).
I still think Pog should have done the Vuelta. I honestly doubt he’ll ever have another chance to win all three GTs in one season, and nobody else has even come close (albeit it used to be basically impossible before the Vuelta moved dates).
I think he should have put his foot down and done it. Essentially, he is the team, and the idea that he didn’t do this so that Almeida or maybe Yates could take on Roglic (who they were never likely to beat) is borderline ludicrous.
Plus he could still have done the Worlds.
I also think the team should have told the domestiques that that is what they are. If they don’t like it, they can go to another team and earn less. And, frankly, win just as many grand tours.
Best single season in cycling ever?
Best single cyclist in a season ever
Nope. Eddy Merckx 150 starts with 52 wins, 1970-1973 at least 30 wins per season. Fifty eight starts with 25 wins is amazing, but the sheer amount of racing in the Merckx era was astounding.
Surely his win rate is more impressive.
2 Grand Tours, 2 Monuments and the World Championship in one year is unprecedented. But that’s quite a specific combination. Merckx managed similar domination several times; for example 1971 (one Grand Tour, three monuments and the World Championship) or 1972 (two Grand Tours and three monuments – plus the Hour record).
The striking difference between then and now is the selectivity – Pogačar (in similar fashion to many current riders) races comparatively rarely, but tends to hit every race he rides in contention to win. Riders in the Merckx era raced far more, in part because teams were smaller and the number of starters per team in each race tended to be larger (so a smaller pool of riders were available to fill all the starting spots, even with races having fewer starters then); and in part because that’s simply what happened.
In a way what Tadej has done is even more impressive.
Higher win rate, plus he was won these races with 3-4 peaks – I count the Giro mini-peak as a peak. He used Giro to build for the Tour, but he went home and dialed it back for a week or so and then ramped back up again for Tour.
Not to revive worn-out topics, but the thing that prevents me from
being bored by Pogi’s dominance is the appealing, perplexing paradox of his persona, the like of which I’ve not seen before: Galactico sans ego.
He is not the kind of athlete who helps any of us feel better about our struggles on or off the bike but do we watch sport / look at art only to have our self-esteem bolstered by underdogs? Once we accept that some feats are beyond almost all of us, there is something very affirming of our shared humanity in seeing a man who can triumph at will while maintaining what appears to be such good grace.
Please let it be real.
Yes. It made me think about sport and cycling in particular and what it means. I buy into the ur-myth of cycling as suffering, a sport for phlegmatic hard men, like mining in Lens or scraping a living on Jutland fields as the north sea winds blow. But also sport can offer transcendence and a brightness of being. A glory. As when watching Federer at his peak, or Zidane with all the extra time he possessed, or Michael Jordan’s overworldiness, or Usain Bolt. Pogacar does this. I am thankful for it.
Lovely writing!
Yeah I don’t fully understand people who call Pogacar’s stranglehold boring. This brand of dominance has only been seen once in history of the sport…isn’t that the definition of unique? Special?
In which sport is a stranglehold _not_ boring? The more predictable a sport is the more boring.
Some people want to see the very best at the top of their game, others want suspense, a contest. There’s no wrong or right here, taste is personal.
Philippe Brunel, retired as L’Equipe’s lead cycling writer, had his definition of a champion as not just someone who wins a lot but could also overcome a situation in which they were disadvantaged and turn this into a win. With Pogačar we’ve not seen much of this of late, in the past his team wasn’t built for him but now it is. Plus he’s rarely struck by misfortune, although so far as this can strike any time.
Agree with all. But will be interesting to see how spectators, viewers, sponsors, … will react to a Merckx-like era. This was the first WT race this year i didn’t follow basically because it was (as your preview suggested) a 99%-likelyhood tap-in. Nothing against Pog but this kind of predictability is hardly selling outside a fairly narrow audience.
2025 will show…
Valid points.
I spent 4 years working in Norway many years ago, when they put in extreme effort to returning to be the best nation in the world in cross-country skiing. And they succeeded in a spectacular fashion – look at the results from the last 5-6-7 winter olympics. Of course this fed a surge of fierce pride and interest in Norway and among a few others where the sheer level of X-C performance was appreciated, but it also fed a circle of dropping interest in the broader public that remains to this day.
Now I’m not saying that this is comparable to UEA/Pog and I know that X-C skiing is a much more niche sport, but some of the dynamics are still there.
Think it very much depends on what you are watching sports for. I loved watching Federer play, but only when he met another player who could put up a fight and make the game interesting. Watching him demolish a qual-player in the first round of a tournament was boring. And I have the exact same feeling for pro-cycling. The overmatched and predictable are boring. The competitive races not. But each to their own. If a 6 hour race where you know (with 95% confidence) that Pogacar will win with 2-4 minutes is your stuff then by all means watch it.
I wont.
Swapping Federer and Nadal (yes, I’m Spanish) I get some of your point, but still I much preferred the long intense 5-set matches between Rafa and one of the other Big Three even with the occational loss, rather than see him demolish a line of lower rankings at Roland Garros. At least thats what sport in general and tennis, football and cycling in particular is for me. The rivalry, the intensity and the competetion. The race.
Indeed. Also a Rafa fan. 2008. Rafa winning vs Federer at Wimbledon was dramatic and super theatre. Terrific sport as drama. Rafa eviscerating Federer at RG was something else; two hours of completeness of purpose and execution. Not tense but remarkable to witness. Both great and memorable spectacles in their different ways.
Both memorable indeed. I of course much prefer the Wimbledon match. I never really warmed to RG trashings but I understand why some are more into that.
Well stated.
How much do we really know about Pog’s persona? Yes, he seems to be a chatty, smiling guy with a highly irritating habit of look-how-tired-I-am-theatrics, but beside that?
Good enough for me, in the absence of any other ‘evidence’. His peers don’t seem to have a problem with him as a person either. There’s a comparison to be made with at least one other previously dominant rider (early 2000s, ‘won’ the Tour quite a few times). He was a bully and a thug who sought to stamp on rivals and intimidate anyone who dared to cross him. We may not have known every last detail, but it was pretty obvious at the time and made him extremely hard to like or admire, and that’s taking no account of the later revelations about his behaviour. On the other hand, from day one Pogacar has come across as someone who enjoys what he does, which is why so many people like him. It’s hard to fake that kind of attitude consistently.
Listening to various podcasts I hear current riders report that he is what he appears to be – an ‘ordinary guy’, a well-adjusted person. I also believe you can see it for yourself in interviews.
One of the remarkable influences his success has had, is to turn Remco into a humbler, more reflective champion than he looked like becoming.
Yeah – I particularly like the one where Matt Stephens listed various silly nicknames for him (some a bit nuts) and asked him to pick the one he liked best and Pog happily played along. I think those who are media savvy but didn’t like the questioning would have shown it a little.
I love pogacar too. This isn’t boring at all. I love how fearless he is.
Also, I’m praying the other teams learn tactics next year. The tactics are abysmal.
I’d be surprised if there are any tactics that can defeat a team doing essentially a leadout 100-50km from the end of a race and firing a guy up the road who can ride the rest of the way at watts the rest of the field can’t even imagine. Sivakov commented after the World Championships that it wasn’t so much the power on the climbs, but that he just kept going like that uphill and downdale relentlessly with absolutely no let up.
In complete agreement. The idea that the combined “other teams” can just chalk up another set of tactics and the UAE/Pog will dance to their tune is naive in the extreme. UAE can sit back and roll along until the last 100 km, fire up under Majka, Soler, .. and Pog can do a PDB-rerun if needed. There is no way any combination of smart tactics can beat a guy that can do what we saw on PDB. If Pog needs to take another 2 minutes he will just do it.
This is one of several factors behind Pogačar’s success rate now. A few years ago UAE looked “lite” in its support for him, look at, say the 2021 Tour squad and it was OK but well below the likes of Jumbo and Ineos. Now it’s placing two helpers in the top-10 in the Tour etc. On Saturday they could ride down a breakaway with almost 5 minutes lead; but for six riders in the team their virtual finish line was the foot of the Sormano, then for Sivakov it was halfway up, they’re so confident in their leader to do the rest they don’t have to worry about the final 50km, the point when many others need to play their cards.
Looking at the race I actually think Pog could have won in Lombardy even with only 2-3 teammates on duty…
It’s been 25 years now that I follow cycling, and often wondered how it was to be a cycling fan during the Merckx era, thinking such domination wouldn’t exist again. Now here we are… Sure, still some way to rejoin Merckx (14 victories in the Monuments) but even Merckx didn’t have a season like this one. I’m a little bored but also very interested to see this in live, how the others (cyclists and followers) react, etc. Pogacar is like a revealer : you can’t lie about your strenght, your shape when you rides against him, you can’t lie about what you like and dislike in pro cycling when it comes to him. And, as Touch of Frost already said, he does it with such simplicity, as if there was no PR behind him (or it’s a really good one).
I remember also when the races were decided only in the very last kilometers each time, because nobody could or would attack before, and every follower was complaining how boring it was (and races were mainly really really boring in the Armstrong era ; I don’t know how I ever became a cycling fan watching the TdF in those days). Now everyone is still complaining for the contrary. Maybe that’s the only real lesson of the Pogacar era : cycling fans will always complain.
It depends why you watch cycling. If you watch for a race, a genuine race between genuine (near) equals that provides tension and drama then this season, Sanremo, the Vuelta and some minor races aside, has been a total washout. Speaking for myself I would in previous seasons/eras avidly watch the major one day races, from start to finish where possible, so as to not miss the little things that all added up to affect the result. This year there just hasn’t been any point. Of the monuments I’ve only done it with Sanremo this year. Sure Pogacar and MvdP are impressive but the physical act of cycling isn’t entertaining in itself week in week out. I seek out the sprint stages of Grand Tours now too and feel short changed when a breakaway robs me of some long awaited action.
100%
This is the first year I have actually followed the sprint stages in the Tour.
As I said, the Arsmtrong years in TdF (2003 excepted), the Valverde wins in the Classics and the Sky years in TdF were far worse in terms of racing excitation…
I’ll take exception to the Valverde wins 😉 but certainly the Armstrong and Sky years were just as horrendous as the Pog races this year…
And I have no idea why I watch cycling. I started when it was very boring, I was 17 but never had a doubt I loved it, I wouldn’t know why. Also, I think my interest differs now from what I liked in my first years.
Pogacar has had an astonishing season but, based on PCS points, Merckx exceeded his season’s score seven times – and six times by a large margin. Comparing epochs is difficult but in my long life following the sport no other rider comes close to either, though Hinault might disagree.
🙂 I can relate. During the Froome era I was also more interested in sprint stages (and those very few medium mountain stages) and what a great bunch of sprinters we had.
This was meant as a reply to Richard S
Chapeau Pozzovivo! I only today noticed that this was his last race at all. Would have watched it despite the boredom, had i known.. 🙁
WHY oh why do the other teams not learn. The best that the other teams can come up with in their briefings is to attack… and attack and attack… let’s try to put someone in the break… to cook themselves to battle for a spot in the break and then to cook themselves all day – ZERO chance they will be able to hold Pogacar’s wheel 5-6 hours in when Pogacar catches the break.
Plus, even if this rider in the break could hold Pogacar’s wheel when he comes up in a solo attack…. Your team has ZERO chance to win.
The far more logical tactic is to spend the first few hours with your entire team following tadej’s wheel. Then you have your entire team following UAE the entire race, and your team leader is sitting tight all race too. Now when tadej launches his attack everyone can mark him (or at least 2-4 strong riders can mark him).
Better even would be if 2-3 top teams did this. And after 200+km no matter how strong Tadej is he could not shake 10-12 top riders who are relatively fresh.
It’s been very proven for 2-3 years now that race in race out if you attack him and his team you are only cooking your entire team plus Tadej’s teammates. Then as has several times another team will then take over at the front to try and put tadej under pressure… the only thing it does is give UAE and Tadej a break.
The tactics are a joke. One team has by far the strongest individual rider…. So their team HAS to do all of the work.
They’ve done that. They can’t mark him. That’s the point. He blows peoples legs up. That only leaves going up the road ahead of him. If someone is going to peak 5 times a season, there isn’t much you can do. Gianetti has really found something here.
Name a race where everyone else has sat back and let UAE lead the entire race….
The problem usually is that when tadej attacks he has been sitting on all race and everyone else is cooked. Look at World’s, the entire Belgian team was riding on the front and evenepoel had to work too. So he couldn’t chase when tadej attacked.
The only way to compete with tadej is to be as calm as possible and be fresh when he goes…. Then you and teammates sit on tight.
Every other race when he launches everyone else has been riding a lot all day.
So the way to beat plastic pog is that 20 teams sit on his wheel and hope for the best?
What insight!
You don’t understand racing tactics…. When one rider is by far the strongest you need to force them to make the first move.
What teams have been doing is trying to grind him down with attacks, which is dumb because they soften their own riders far more than him. If UAE has been on the front all day then when Tadej attacks Quickstep can mark him. Van der Poel can mark Tadej and sit on his wheel. Evenepoel, if as fresh as Tadej because he was in the break all day, can sit on Tadej’s wheel when the attack comes.
Yes, you don’t give an armchair ride to tadej by pulling the peloton all day – Belgium lost the worlds road race all by themselves.
@CA Problem with this is that UAE can easily let 1-2 guys run the peloton at leisure and as soon as it heats up, Pog will still ride away. Your idea may work on a flat route, but given that Pog can break any ascent record at will, any route with more than minuscule hills will still enable him to break ahead when required.
Why would UAE ride on the front all day, unless there is a break to control?
Not quite sure what your tactics are.
If there is a break without any UAE’ies, then yes, sure, UAE will have to work and control. Which was we saw Sunday.
With no break, why should UAE do any work? They have the favourite and they know they can wait for the race to drain the other teams. Pogi can then roll out with 100-90-80-70-60 km to go.
Saturday. Not Sunday. My bad.
I’ll reply to the main thread – the teams, and it seems maybe I’m not being clear enough. I’ll use the last race as a specific example.
This is exactly what happened on the last Monument of the season:
For two hours, every team’s lieutenants and top riders are burning their matches… every single team. So, you have Tadej and a few other top riders sitting on and staying roughly the same level of fresh – but all the team’s (including all of the contending teams) full complement burning matches.
Everyone is attempting to put Tadej and his team under pressure… But 100% Tadej is sitting on knowing he will be able to dust the other teams’ leaders when he makes his move, and at that point no one will have a team who can chase him down. Plus, he is sitting in the wheels riding at a very sustainable pace, and he is riding at a more comfortable pace for him than the other leaders.
Once again, this is exactly what Tadej is expecting and hoping for. He loves a strategy where the entire peloton is cooking itself.
The only way to adjust is to not fall exactly into the expectations of the top rider, plus force Tadej’s team to do the work… For two hours, every single team is effectively doing the work as UAE marks moves (staying in the wheels) and Tadej is sitting on, getting an arm chair ride by less powerful riders who are cooking themselves.
The smart move tactically for his main competitors is to mark Tadej – stick your entire team on Tadej’s wheel. Never touch the front, if Tadej’s team sends someone up the road, let him go – someone else will chase him down. If no one attacks to create a break, that’s fine, stay on UAE’s wheels and let UAE ride tempo all day.
It’s been proven race after race, that you can’t beat Tadej by using your team to attempt to eliminate his team. It only results in your team burning all of your own riders for when Tadej ultimately attacks.
The goal has to be to bring as large of a group as possible to the finish line… which means stay calm and keep your riders as fresh as possible. If Tadej attacks with 50/100km to go, and you have a fresh team, it’s not possible for Tadej to outpace a pack that is fresh too. Tadej’s hail mary attacks have only worked against pelotons that have put a tonne of work in all day.
” If Tadej attacks with 50/100km to go, and you have a fresh team, it’s not possible for Tadej to outpace a pack that is fresh too.”
There are 2 problems with this. The first is that it makes no sense to anyone but one to wear themselves out catching Pog just to launch Remco from 20 km or (for a slightly different all but one) haul Van der Poel to the line. So they’ll just tell Soudal or Alpecin you want it, go get it. We saw something like that at the World’s — a strong chase group worried about Evenepoel and Van der Poel. The other is that this really only has a chance on flatter, wider parcours, which is what makes MSR such a lottery. You can’t get a pack to chase up the bergs of Flanders or the hills of Liege or Lombardy. You *might* get a strong chase group who’ll spend too much time marking the strongest in the group or trying to break on their own or otherwise not committed to working with each other. Like we saw at the World’s.
That’s the point – Soudal, Alpecin, Quickstep, Visma, etc. ALL have to stop trying to attack UAE/Pogacar at the beginning.
If 4-5 serious teams save their top lieutenants and team leaders for the final 1-2 hours, instead of burning them at the beginning, it’s the only chance you have to beat this guy.
Seriously, it’s idiotic to attack and attack at the beginning. And, every single team is guilty of this. Which is why at the moment Tadej launched, there was no one available to mark him. And the break… they’ve been riding hard for 4+ hours when he catches them. Obviously they can’t latch onto his wheel.
That might work at MSR. But that won’t help at all up the Koppenberg or La Redoute, never mind the Sormano. There the team leaders have to pick up the gauntlet.
This is not how I saw it. Riders were cooking themselves to get in the break, to get in front of Pogacar and give themselves a smidgen of a chance. And other teams may have chased a) because they missed the break or b) because they considered someone who had got in the break to be too good to allow. In this instance 90% a). Everyone knows in a straight fight with Pogacar on any hill they don’t stand a flicker of a chance. I don’t believe any team was doing riding with the primary intention of making the race hard, thats just a byproduct, or to put Pogacar under pressure, they know that isn’t what will happen.
End result, they were cooked…. we both disagree on the initial intentions, but end result is exactly the same.
Note, that if you save your teammates until Tadej’s attack then it isn’t a straight fight. At World’s and Lombardia, Tadej attacked riders who were at or well over their limit and had been working for much of the day, while Tadej had been sitting on the wheels.
When Tadej attacks (after losing UAE’s top riders), what would have happened if Remco still had 2-3 fresh climbers? Or, at World’s if Belgium had 3-4 guys who had been sitting on all day rather than pulling and attacking? You 100% have a much more realistic chance to race Tadej.
I really don’t understand your idea. Everyone in the peloton should just ride at a leisurely pace, to not tire out. And then at the first hill or other climb, then the combined teams will *really* break Pog?
This makes no sense whatsoever.
It makes way more sense than what they are currently trying.
Did I say ride at leisurely pace? I said the top teams to mark the strongest rider on the planet rather than try once again to break him. It never works.
The only chance you have is to glue on his wheel, force UAE to chase the break and save your team for Tadej’s guaranteed solo launch.
CA: OK, lets play along. We are in the early hours of a race. We have 4-5-6-7 top teams all sitting on Pog and a number of lesser lights going for the break. What wil UAE do? I see three scenarios:
1) UAE will try to get one rider in the break, look at the rest of the teams and say: “your turn”.
2) UAE will use up 1-2-3 riders – Bjerg, Soler, Politt, Wellens-types to control. If need be they can easily do this, sacrificing the riders as they go and keep any thinkable break in short chain.
3) UAE will do nothing. Let the break(s) run away and look at the teams behind and say “OK, so now”? Pog himself can, in any conceivable race that is not completely flat (in which case he’s not likely to be there anyway) wait it out and run away on the first climb of any size, eat up the break and leave the rest to sort it out.
So what is your idea?
MediumMig – yes, that’s the new scenario that Tadej needs to face.
For one, zero chance he is happy letting an easy break go up the road and get 30 minutes and win the race. The responsibility is 100% on tadej and UAE to control this and pace the peloton for first 5 hours. So, tadej is using his first 4 teammates. 4-6 top teams have done nothing but sit on.
Now when Tadej launches his move the other top leaders are far fresher than at any race this year plus they have several teammates to ride full out (taking turns) to mark or chase down ONE man.
Finally, someone else is understanding how race tactics work. I’ve taken A LOT of heat from everyone on this blog for my ideas. But none of the races this year following the generally accepted strategy has come close to working… NONE. Tadej wins when he suits up, the other teams try to put him under difficulty and then he opens the taps and boom, race over.
MediumMig – also, “easily” marking a break over a 260-300km monument with 3 riders?!? HA! Have you ever ridden on a race before. Riding 40+kph for 5 hours with only 3 riders on front… give me a break.
Plus, if UAE sends someone up the road, then any of the other leaders’ send ONE guy to sit on the UAE wheel… don’t take a pull, completely kill the cohesion of the break if that UAE guy gets in it.
This is called tactics…
CA:
OK, I will also agree that scenario 2) is the most likely, but only barely and not always.
However I don’t think it would do much difference to the outcome, if – as an example – this had been applied for Lombardia. As we saw it, UAE was clearly missing some of the diesel engines Saturday, but when they turned on the heat on Ghisallo, the game was up. It took UAE no time to cut the lead to nothing. Remco had the luxury of being able to shadow Pog, and was still left holdning the bag as soon as Pog opened. As in *immediatly*. If he had a few team mates left at this stage, what could they have done to help on Sormano? Nothing.
Yes, if the rest of race had been a flat 30 km run to Como, it could potentially had turned the tables, but Pog is not doing the Scheldeprijs-style races. And then your tactics doesn’t really matter, because the geography is playing into UAE’s means.
I would actually turn it around. The only slim chance of beating Pog is to go a completely different way. Turn on the heat from the start and use your teams up. Get as many teammates up the road as possible, and use these as support when Pog opens. The defensive option will never work.
MediumMig – your recommendation is the exact scenario that isn’t working right now…
I think your first comment was the most honest, you don’t understand my idea.
The goal is to get your riders into a position where they are fresh enough and with enough numbers to sit on Tadej in the critical ending of the race.
CA:
No its not. What they are doing now is sending 1-2 guys out in front per team. This is clearly not working as we agree, but neither would your tactics. Pog (and UAE) is simply too strong.
How many riders – even among those not helping UAE chasing the break – were left when they reached the foot of Sormano? 30? 25? 20?
They need to utilize the teams while they are still fresh, i.e. use say 3-4 riders instead, from the start of the race. Not 1-2 as now. I know it’s a big gamble but as we can see, UAE can easily reduce the peloton to little more than 20 riders when need be. So your defense will never work.
Your description of the last few Tadej wins is completely off.
Belgium had a stacked team, rode the entire team hard for the first 4-5 hours. Remco had zero fresh support when Tadej took off with 100+km to go.
Similarly for Lombardia – when you send 1-2 guys out front into the break, after 2 hours of trying, you have in reality used 4-5 guys with repeated attacks to make this stick. Quickstep and a couple other teams missed the break, so they had to work really hard in hour two to launch a second break to catch the first break.
End result, several top teams had used a lot of efforts in the first 100km of racing.
I don’t think you understand how much of an effect these efforts have on the riders when you get to hour 5 and 6. Each time Tadej has attacked he has been by far the freshest rider in the peloton. It’s very simple, strategy as you are describing it does nothing to soften up Tadej.
It’s a completely failed strategy, and you are suggesting they aren’t doing enough to attempt to hurt him… c’mon, really?
CA:
We are at the end of the road here. I share your frustration and sense of boredom, but we completely disagree on what can be done. As I see it you and I saw two different races Saturday, and we are obviously never going to share the outlook.
Have a nice day.
Medium Mig – now, that I agree on. I am very excited to see how next year plays out. Looking forward to another great racing season.
Take care
On a stats note, inevitably you have to go back to Merckx to find a solo win by a bigger margin – 3’31” in 1971. Simpson won solo (from a stellar chase group) by 3’8″ in 1965. Before that, you have to go back to the 1940s to find solo winning margins of over 3 minutes.
The first few times a rider massively dominates a one-day race with an incredible ride, it’s interesting.
The number of times Pogacar has done it, for me, there’s little interest – to the extent that I FFWD through this race and barely watched 10 minutes.
I know these are incredible performances, and for some that is interesting, but I personally want to see a race – I don’t really care who the people are.
To be fair, in some races, it’s Pog’s opposition’s tactics that are at fault. At Lombardia – a more hilly course – there was almost certainly no way of beating him, but at the World Championships, the group that wasn’t far behind him for the final dozens of km (which were not that hilly) could probably have caught him – if they had worked together. Yes, you don’t want to help MvdP to the front, but if you don’t catch Pog, you definitely won’t win. Ergo, that’s job no. 1.
And that keeps happening. For years, I bemoaned that very few riders (bar no-hopers) ever tried a loan attack because the dogma was that it would never work because the other riders would work together to catch you. Then, a few exceptional riders showed that this is possible. And now others do it too. The baffling part is that riders seem to have forgotten the most basic tactic of cycling of working together to bring this loan rider back.
Sure, but at Worlds, how do you get someone like Ben O’Connor to help. They catch Pogs and he has zero chance to win. No one lets him sneak off like he did. Then you have probably one other guy in that group who is smoked who can’t work and then the whole group is disrupted. Easier said than done.
The Worlds was one example. It’s seemingly every race where they don’t work together.
On paper you are right, but in reality the dynamics are different. If you catch a break at the Worlds with – say – Remco, MvdP and Hirschi – and have Pog up the road, are you going to ride yourself to the limit, if you are a rider just under their level? Of course not. You will hitch it out and assume that the big boys will have the responsibility to do the work. Or at least 90% of it.
But you see it when the riders are fairly even, for example, breaks in grand tours. Just in the last maybe two or three years it’s become the norm that the rider who attacks from the break first wins. Because the others always refuse to work together.
Look at Stage 2 in the Tour de France. It was virtually gifted to the break.
And actually that’s another point: with GC contenders more determined these days to take stages, the best time for others to win a stage is early in the race, before any mountains are reached – those are the breaks that the GC riders are far more likely to let go.
J Evans – from a high level, I agree with you. It’s the inability of the other riders to utilise a strong strategy and work together that ultimately gifts the win to Pogacar.
Not sure what the “strong strategy” is. If Pog’s main rivals and their teams decide to back away and play the defense, then any team without a “star” will grab the opportunity and try for breaks. It will likely make the race even more aggressive. You don’t expect 20+ teams to conspire just to take out Pog, do you?
Realistically only 5-6 teams have a shot… and those teams MUST save all of their riders to chase down the inevitable solo attack from Tadej.
Quickstep spent significant time sending Vansevenant up the road in Lombardia. That means Vansevenant and at least 3-4 others were working very hard in the first 2 hours to chase the break, and then Vansevenant rode hard all day long.
@CA I get your point, but it only works on a flat stage. Not on a stage with any significant (or even barely significant) climbs. SQS, Lidl, EF, … could have placed 50 fresh riders at the bottom of Sormano all to no avail. Pog would have smashed them regardless.
RyanFelt… I don’t think you saw the parcours… the race didn’t end on the Sormano where Tadej attacked.
If 5 teams had relatively fresh depth then a strong peloton working together could have kept Tadej A LOT closer than 3 minutes
@CA Not sure we saw the same race. At the start of Sormano Sivakov had reduced the peloton to around 20 riders with only atomized remains of the break ahead. At the top of Sormano Pog was alone around 1:15 ahead of RE. From there – on terrain that on paper should suit RE, being the TT WC – Pog took another 2 minutes on RE.
Two. Minutes.
None of your tactics would have made the slightest difference. RE could have had the entire SQS squad with him there, done a full Team TT, and still lost to Pog.
CA -> your idea makes some sense for the Worlds, but absolutely NO sense looking at Lombardy. I don’t think you watched it.
Your arguments are proving my point.
At Lombardia, top teams with a contending leader spent the first two hours sending their riders up the road to get in the break… and chasing the break down and then rinse, repeat, etc.
Tadej spent that time sitting on wheels waiting.
Sivakov is an excellent rider, but he isn’t powerful enough to shred riders who weren’t already under difficulty.
You guys are proving my point – if Remco’s team didn’t waste time creating a break, several would have been right there with Sivakov and fresher than Sivakov.
When Tadej shot up the road and passed the break, none of the riders who were put into the break to mark him could touch him… they had been riding hard for 5 hours. Silly to think they would have been able to sit on Tadej’s wheel who had kept his efforts calm for 200km when they spent 200km riding at tempo pace.
100% my tactics would have resulted in a LOT fresher riders when Sivakov took the front. Plus, when Tadej launched he would have had much fresher riders to chase him down. Remco wouldn’t have been chasing solo…
Your tactics resulted in Remco losing 3 minutes in 50km… 3 minutes… He had no one to help him. The efforts to put Vansevenant in the break was completely wasted. He was useless when Tadej caught the break… completely useless.
Alright Inrng – I apologise, I’m done on this topic. Let’s see how 2025 goes and what tactics work. I really can’t wait.
CA -> So if Vansevenant hadn’t joined the break, the race would have been turned completely around?
Your “tactics” are moronic.
Anon – the guy who placed 2nd…. had zero help chasing the winner in the last 50km. His entire team spent 2 hours chasing the break and inserting a really strong rider into this break… this rider spent the next 3 hours racing full tempo…
The winner blew the doors off the break, and put 3 minutes into the second place rider in 50km.
Remco needed help for the finale… anything to keep Tadej within reach… but his team was done hours before.
Your tactics put the race out of reach. That’s a fact.
-> CA
So you think that Vansevenant could have followed and even helped his captain on Sormano? Lol.
Honest question here, I’m not as astute with race tactics as some others commenting here . . .
In two recent TDFs (not this year), Visma was able to earn the win by marking Pogacar consistently and dedicating most of their team’s efforts to wearing him down until Jonas could capitalize. Will they be able to try the same approach again, or has something now changed which diminishes their chance of succeeding this way (assuming Jonas is fully fit) ?
I think it more came down to Vin just being better than Pog in the TdFs of 22 and 23. I don’t think Pog’s dodgy tactics in 22 cost him the win and I have my doubts about lingering injury in 23 – I just think Vin was better.
Now that UAE have a much stronger team – at least about equal with Visma – I think it’ll very much come down to legs. (And I’ve no idea which of them would have the upper hand – it certainly used to be Vin, when it came to the TdF.)
It used to be that Pog was much punchier but JV was stronger on long climbs, especially at altitude. So Jumbo’s tactics were focused on isolating Pog in a one-on-one battle. Now that’s way harder because a) UAE has put together a superteam for all parcours; and b) Pog has seemingly improved his fueling/endurance/whatever, so he’s less prone to blowing up and losing three minutes on one bad day. As we saw in this year’s TDF, if he can just stay on the wheel while others make the race hard, he’s going to win 90% of the time. Makes it hard to imagine how next year will be any different, but hope springs eternal.
Great points – the rest of the group has to change their tactics… trying to put him into difficulty is playing into his hands. And it happens every…. single…. race these days.
Attempting to soften Tadej with constant attacking turns into a 200-rider leadout because he is sitting on while every other rider cooks themselves.
Other teams have to ride with intelligence, attacking Pog or his team is clearly a terrible strategy.
But what is it you suggest? That alle non-UAE riders sit on Pogi’s wheel? Exactly what would you expect UAE to do in that situation? I know what I would do as UAE DS. Send a single guy out on a break and/or another one to control the tempo of the peloton and the rest of the team to roll easy on stand-by. And your whole set of tactics collapse.
There is no easy way to beat Pogi, but yours is about the worst I’ve seen.
Michael – I don’t think you understand how tactics are playing out.
Look at this fall, how do the races develop? The teams attempt to tire Tadej out, spend 1-2 hours creating a super break, lose most of their team within first 3-4 hours, then Tadej launches and he is gone… At that point, it is Tadej vs. individual leaders who have zero chance to catch him.
I don’t think you understand how each race plays out. It’s the same strategy each race.
I’m suggesting that you mark UAE and Tadej all race. If UAE sends one rider up the road, you launch a rider of equal ability to mark him (SIT ON HIS WHEEL, never take a turn).
What will happen is a small low-level break will form, and you force UAE to manage the break. Your entire team sits on UAE and conserves energy for when Tadej launches. Then your team and team leader (and the other top teams who hopefully have also decided to conserve their energy) can mark Tadej. This will change the current pattern, which is gift wrapping the races to Tadej.
With all respect CA, you don’t know what you are talking about. Did you see the Lombardia? Even if Remco had arrived at the foot of Sormano with 4 fresh helpers, the result would have been the same. He didn’t even *try* to follow Pogi. And Pogi didn’t win by 16, 36 og 66 seconds. His margin was 3 minutes and 16 seconds. Pogi could have rested half his team, and still have been able to crush the break. And any rider on his wheel.
Like it or not (I´’m slowly trending towards only following the results on PCS rather than the live transmissions), Pogi cannot be beaten in a race like that when he is at this level (well, at the level he has somehow been for 7 months..).
And thus, the UCI came to draw up a handicap tariff of extra ballast and baggy jerseys for riders. /s
For many sports fans it’s a four year wait between Olympics. We’re getting the best whenever any bike rider wins these days, not just Pogacar. It’s great to have seen the standards come on so much in road racing lately. Who will be the next to take things even further ..?
What’s not to like? What do you really propose instead of letting the best do the job?
And it’s not like the Armstrong days. The public absolutely loves Pogacar. He always has time for his rivals and he’s becoming quite the patron for them all too – only because they let him. He’s had the same opportunities as other rising stars and has really made the most. He’s successful a n d he really enjoys it all. It’s not complicated and, same as it’s always been, the race is won by the first to cross the line.
“What’s not to like?”
Well UAE for one. When you have a state-owned team with an infinite bank account that can and does hoover up all of the best riders on the market, you have a serious problem. Yes, Pog is one of the greatest cyclists we’ve ever seen, but even he wouldn’t win nearly as much as he does without a really strong team. When you assemble the Death Star of cycling teams, is it a surprise that it kills everything in its path?
Whoa. Think about your language there, at a time when countries elsewhere quite literally are killing everything. This is just sport.
And it’s only money – the thing we all work for, with energy as one of our biggest bills – and it all ends up somewhere. Instead of just keeping it all, some sovereign wealth funds, some wealthy people or corporations choose to fund sports teams.
We can all see sportswashing for what it is, whilst also enjoying the performance of individuals the money is rewarding.
Or would you prefer your top athletes not to be paid? And paid by those who can afford it the most?
Leaving the human rights issues aside (which we seem to agree on anyway) the larger point I was trying to make is that having most of the best riders concentrated in one team is not healthy for the sport. We’ve seen this happen in football, where one team can suffocate any hope of competition because they can afford to assemble a roster no other team can hope to match (Juventus, Bayern, for example). Yes, eventually this domination will break, but damn it makes for dire, boring viewing while it’s happening. I don’t know what the solution to this is, especially given the way cycling is currently run. I don’t think it’s a problem that can really be solved without upending the entire sponsorship model of the sport. A unicorn like Pog will win a lot regardless, but what we saw in Lombardia wouldn’t be possible if he were on Jayco or Astana.
I beg to differ. His margin might have been less than the 3:16 to Remco, but he would have crushed the field regardless. Lets say the break got 4 minutes more? Best in the break was Meurisse almost 5 minutes back crossing the line.
… but beside that I agree with all your points. Only the Vuelta was not a dire show.
Juventus, Bayern… they have nothing on Scottish football, where no team except Celtic or Rangers has won the league since 1986, and there is precisely zero chance of that changing. That’s what happens when money becomes the dominant feature in a sport. (For the life of me, I cannot comprehend why anyone follows Scottish football – I gave up in the 90s.)
J Evans
Almost similar in Spain. I dropped football long ago, as it was more and more a RealMFCB rivalry.
Pog is a massive talent, so he would continue to win regardless of his team. But it’s become soooo much easier with the team UAE has assembled (and continues to assemble; look at the young talent they have signed over the past few years). It does have a bit of the feeling of PSG, Man City etc. when riders like Vine, McNulty, Del Toro and others are just “part of the squad.” I actually think the big story that isn’t getting a lot of attention is the total number of wins in the team this year. One can only hope that a healthy Visma team and a stronger Bora can at least break the stranglehold that UAE has had in 2024.
There have been many other very strong teams: US Postal, Sky, Jumbo-Visma only last year.
I agree – sport washing isn’t ideal, but it’s funding this sport that we love and debate about on this great blog.
None of us pay ticket fees to this sport, I’m from Canada and a lot of my phone/tv bill supports my hometown hockey, baseball and basketball teams. But, unless I buy flooring from Belgium, pay for British gas, or drop a bag of $20 bills on Tadej’s doorstep, there is no indirect or direct path for my money to get to my favourite riders.
We can all agree that the model for this sport is not ideal, however my priority list of issues has cycling sportwashing far far at the bottom of the list.
Also, on another note, I’m very happy that the women’s side of the sport is getting stronger (financially and from a sporting perspective) – I really want to show my daughter that her sports are just as important as my sons’.
Very much looking forward to 22 March (MSR).