Tadej Pogačar is putting previewers out of business. He’s won the last three editions of this race and his late season form seems so good so he can ride into the history books this Saturday and swap comparisons with Eddy Merckx for one with Fausto Coppi who won this race four times in a row (1946-1949)… but also took a fifth win in 1954.
It’s hard to write about the other contenders because how to get ahead of Pogačar? Still it might be fun to see them try.
The Route
Of all the five Monuments, Lombardia’s route changes the most. As this morning’s L’Equipe mused this comes with peril as the race searches for its cultural anchor points. Watch the race on Saturday and it’ll look like Lombardia and the annual Bergamo-Como parentheses surely work better than past editions of years ago where the race finished in Milan, far from any climbs.
This year’s edition is Bergamo-Como, west to east, 252km and well over 4,000m of vertical gain. The first four climbs contribute plenty to the day’s vertical gain with the Selvino a staple of the race and locals alike. It makes the first two hours or more hard going.
The Madonna del Ghisallo is tackled via a “new” route. Rather than the “poor man’s spaceship” ramp out of Bellagio as Gianni Brera once wrote, this way up is more a pauper’s travelator or in more cycling terms, a big ring kind of climb. At the top the race will pass the chapel and cycling museum in the other direction before descending to the lake for a breather. Only just as the road is narrow and being in position for the Sormano climb counts for plenty.
Colma is an old word for a pass or a peak (from the Latin culmen, as in culminate) and this is a familiar climb but it’s not the Muro, the vicious side road, but just the main climb up. It’s a quasi-Alpine climb, 13km at 6.4% but if we scratch the small flat area before the top most if the climb is 7% or more.
The Finish: no Citiglio and the San Fermo features once which makes for a less selective finish, and probably more action before on the Sormano. Still it’s not easy, a tight turn at foot places a premium on going in first before the narrow road twists up through the woodland, it’s 2.7km at 7% reaching 10% before the top. Then it’s downhill and a slight modification to the finish with the race no longer finishing by the lake but more inland because of high water but it stays flat.
The Contenders: Tadej Pogačar has won the last three editions, the course suits and he’s in form. To paraphrase Pavel Sivakov after the Zürich Worlds, Pogačar was doing 700 watts uphill and Sivakov’s problem was he kept doing this on the descent, then on the flat and he just couldn’t follow the relentless pace. This makes him the five-chainring pick but in sport they don’t equate to 100% probability.
Pogačar’s helped even more by a strong UAE squad where Marc Hirschi, Jan Christen, Adam Yates and Pavel Sivakov could all win but if they’re somehow in the mix for the win then so will be others from rival teams so as much as UAE may want to redistribute some opportunity, why risk it? For some this is boring, for others it’s the chance to see someone leading in their field at their pomp, like watching Fangio, Jordan or Woods. There’s no right and wrong here. However returning to the team they’re strong but lack a tractor-like rider who can pull on the flat as well as the climbs and rivals might want to exploit this.
As ever the way to win is to move before Pogačar does but as we’ve seen lately he goes earlier than most expect. So it’ll be interesting to see the morning breakaway and whether some big names join the usual Polti-Kometa and Bardiani invitees. Otherwise good luck to anyone hoping to stay on Pogačar’s wheel on the Sormano.
This is the problem with citing all the other riders, someone like Tom Pidcock (Ineos) can sprint well, handles the climbs and especially the descents well and is searching for a result when others have already gone on holiday… (update: Pidcock is a non-starter) so if anyone leaves it to the Sormano then Pogačar can take 30 seconds or more on the climb and parlay this into a minute going into Como.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) is the other star name and it’ll be interesting to see what his plan is. He spoke of fatigue in his pre-race presser but some form should still be left, it’s more how to use it. Surprise perhaps, barging away on a flat piece of road where relative to Pogačar he’s got an advantage and remember UAE’s relative weakness here too. But pre-Sormano this implies building a buffer for the climb; post-Sormano implies he’s still with the Slovenian.
Enric Mas (Movistar) has been second here before and the form looks right now too but he’d like a more selective finish to help narrow things down.
Matteo Jorgenson leads a strong Visma-LAB and for a thought experiment, imagine how things would have been for the Dutch team had he not signed for them? There’s a lesson for UAE and us onlookers too when it comes to expectations for the following season.
Another American contender is Neilson Powless who’s just won Gran Piemonte. That race has an ever-changing course but the recent edition was like a mini-Lombardia and Georg Steinhauser was looking strong too so up EF Education-Easypost to invent something.
Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) rides his last Lombardia and is a sentimental pick. This was one of the races that made him when, as a neo-pro in 2012, he was on the attack. Back then a young pro active late into a 250km race was sign of potential. He’s got a capable team with Kevin Vermaerke capable of finishing off a solid season.
Roger Adria has proved a useful signing for Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe but a Monument is probably asking too much.
Simon Yates (Jayco) can say goodbye to the team he’s been with for a decade and having finished fith in Emilia the form is there for a result.
David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) could be like Mas as a Vuelta finisher in form but is less reassuring and how to win, as if he’s alright in a sprint there are faster. Among them team mate Romain Grégoire.
Bahrain probably want the season to hurry up and end, they’ve slipped to 17th in the UCI rankings for this year. Still Pello Bilbao and Antonio Tiberi bring options.
Home hopes probably rest on Giulio Ciccone who can climb with the best and packs a decent sprint, plus he was looking aggressive in Gran Piemonte but turning this into a result is tough.
We could look wider, think Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X), Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa) or Alessandro Pinarello (VF-Bardiani-CSF) but of course for these riders just to get ahead of a few names above would impress, let alone finding away past Pogačar and Evenepoel.
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Tadej Pogačar |
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– |
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Remco Evenepoel |
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Enric Mas |
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Hirschi, Jorgenson, Yates2, Vansevenant, Ciccone, Bilbao, Bardet |
Weather: 17°C and mostly cloudy. The poetic label of “the race of the falling leaves” (la classica delle foglie morte for locals) feels redundant, even bizarre, in recent years given spells of warm weather in September and October. But this year the weather’s been very different since early September and so look out for the autumnal tones… and even leaves on the road.
TV: RAI for locals and VPN surfers where it’s live from 10.25 CEST on RAI Sport, then 2.00pm on RAI Due. See Eurosport-Discovery-Warner-HBO-whatever-it’s-called-where-you-live for the international feed. KM0 is at 10.35am and the finish is forecast for 5.00pm Euro time.
‘Get up the road early and get a big gap’ would be the best advice to anyone wanting or hoping to win. Taking on Pogacar head to head later on will only result in one winner!
Remco wins this by going long. The only person who could match or better him with that tactic would be Pog. I am hoping for a long range duel between the two. 100km of one-on-one battling.
Will we get to the point where every team except UAE essentially unites to form a superteam? Would it even make any difference?
We sometimes get talk of alliances but can anyone cite an example where it’s happened? (not chasing a break down together etc, here we’re talking about ganging up to specifically take on one rider).
The other Russian riders chasing down Sivakov?
It’s a theoretical possibility, but the question is: who benefits? Teams with a rider in the break aren’t going to ride anyway, so you’d be relying on the teams with nothing to gain to help their rivals. A grand coalition might work in stage race, where results can be shared, but surely not in a one day.
THE PCS startlist does not include Pidcock. An error?
He was done to ride… until five minutes after the preview went out. Will amend the text above.
Pidcock has put an amusingly petulant Instagram post out saying he was deselected and the form was there, it’s disappointing etc. One to watch transfer wise of not in the actual race.
Normally these things happen in private, “illness” or “personal matters” used as cover. There’s been talk he could change teams, clearly he’s not happy but there’s the matter of contracts plus it’s late in the day.
Just replying to your comment below, fair enough, probably too harsh from me, although I’m vegetarian and I hope I would decline the sausage a little more gracefully!
That doesn’t reflect well on Pidcock. He’s said to be paid over £2million yet is only 29th in the PCS ranking behind many lesser paid riders. Maybe he should keep quiet and provide the results to justify the wages.
I think it’s £2.4million. Certainly not good value for money on the road. There is something seriously amiss, with underperformance on the road, personality clashes and a self indulgent attitude. Probably best that Pidcock moves on for both their sakes.
And the quicker the better!
I was really put off Pidcock by his carry on when drinking a beer after he won Amstel. I know some found it amusing but I thought it was deeply disrespectful to the sponsors who have supported that race for a long time.
Are the staff justifying their wages?
Andrew, he doesn’t drink alcohol, it would be like asking a vegetarian to eat a sausage at the GP Wurst or a burger at the McDonalds Classic etc. They should have got a 0% Amstel for him.
@DRW. But what road team will want to match those wages and results? He has won some big races but nowhere near enough given his abilities. But a move looks like his best option…
Pidcock out, no hoper Ethan Hayter in. The INEOS debacle continues!
Looks as if his time there is coming to an end, maybe the team too? Cycling is possibly too far down the list of priorities for Sirs Jim & Dave what with sailing and finding a new Man Utd manager!
Ratcliffe really likes cycling and it’s a good way into some places that Manchester Utd or sailing etc don’t overlap so apparently the team is here to stay (but obviously they’d not say the opposite). But you do wonder for the “yacht test” when guests fly in to dine on board and amid the chatter someone asks, “so Jim, have you won the Tour de France again this year” and he can’t reply yes.
The team’s been overtaken in the budget terms but there’s more to their troubles with recruitment and just rotten luck like Bernal’s crash. It’s something to explore more in the off-season perhaps.
But they just don’t seem to be a team planning for the future. From the outside, managed decline seems to be what’s happening (maybe not even managed that well!).
Unless a meteorite hits him, or some old dear pulls out of her driveway and takes him out, Pogacar will win this race. It is as near a certainty that any sporting event with 200 participants can be.
Fair play to the organisers for not going mental with climbs in the finale for once, they finally got the memo.
Last race of Pozzovivo, or does he race again after in Veneto ? He could have won it once, I think (the year when Zaugg won, maybe the biggest surprise of a monument in the last 30 years… Guesdon, Vansummeren had other results ; Zaugg only had some top-ten in some stages of the Vuelta before and after this…)
At the age of 40 Jack Nicklaus achieved a Total Driving number (combination of distance and fairways hit) of 23. No one has matched it since. I did see him once on the practice tee and he was extraordinary.
Woods was a devil with a putter in his hands but I think I would prefer to watch Sam Snead take a swing at the ball.
Plenty of time for plastic pog to do his trademark “look-i’m-so-tired” show on Sormano.
You mean the fake puff of the cheeks? He takes the fans for idiots or is one himself.
Who even cares? I’d rather watch paint dry than another Pogacar win. The only question is whether he goes solo from Ghisallo or Sormano.
no.
TV: those in French-speaking Belgium and Luxembourg can watch live on RTBF terrestrial from 13h40 though Pogacar cruising to another win may put many off.
A top five for Bardet would be a highlight here and a nice end to a long career – he’s always been loyal to his teams too! Good luck Romain.
My error. He’s continuing to June 2025 according to PCS.
He’s planning to ride the Dauphine and bow out there. A fitting end. I’ve greatly enjoyed his swashbuckling swansong, mixed with a paternalistic role with the younger riders. Looking forward to these last rides and hope he gets a send off like Pinot.
I like Bardet too and hope for similar in terms of a send-off and a few good results before June (including here) would be the icing on the cake.
He’s out this morning with illness. A pity as the form in Zürich was good and he was in the break during the Tre Valle Varesine before they stopped racing.
No word of Mohoric? Am I missing something, or am I just stupid
4,500m of climbing seems too much. He’d have to be over the Sormano with the best to then weave his magic on the descent and build a lead. Or something like that, we’ll see. A good shot at the top-10 though. Happy to be wrong as it would be a surprise result.
I think this race and others like it, Liege/Strade Bianche/Emilia (any race with any sort of hill in it), really suffer in the current era of uber domination. Pogacar eats these races for breakfast. And if for whatever reason he isn’t there, Evenepoel does. I feel like I can already see this race in my head. Pogapoel will take off somewhere in the final 100k, certainly no later than the final 50k. Commentators will wax lyrical, Italy will look lovely and an hour or two later they will cross the line arms aloft. They might get off and carry their bike. I’m giving Evenepoel semi equal billing but in reality he blows hot and cold and is not currently hot enough. I fully expect Pogacar to walk away with it, I only hope he leaves it as late as possible. I feel like this course could’ve given certainly Van Aert and possibly MvdP a shout if they were up against conventional cyclists.
Bookies are now offereing bets on Gianetti’s – errr… Pogi’s – margin will be 2, 3 og 4 minutes.
Just putting more time into the TT world champion. lol.
Lol Gianetti…..
Just a note on the climb to Sormano: it’s not the road close to the “muro”, this time they climbed from the opposite side, where they usually descend and where Remco had his terrible crash.
Yes, once over the top it’s past the telescope and round to the left to begin the descent and there’s the “muro” going downhill. I’d advise against descending this.