Almost a rest day, this stage was promised for the sprinters and supposed to offer a predictable scenario. Only strong winds are forecast and we could have an afternoon of crosswind action.
The Route: a ride past several war memorials and mass graves in the Somme. The race does a good job of commemoration, marking the moment without turning the race into a sombre procession.
As you can see from the map above the route twists and turns on its way to Amiens, one minute running south, the next going north. As the weather forecast below shows strong crosswinds from the west are likely so the bunch is going to be exposed a lot of the time. Without branching off too far into military history one reason the Battle of the Somme happened was the exposed terrain and the exposed ridges. Today’s modern agriculture means the roads are even more exposed to the wind too. It creates the vicious circle where everyone fears a split so they drive the pace and fight to get to the front and so the chances of a split go up.
The Finish: a flat run into Amiens. Like all French towns there’s a series of roundabouts to negotiate before entering. The finish uses large boulevards and if there’s a right-hand bend in the final kilometre it’s a gentle sweeper, one for a lead out train to hug the inside and force other to follow or take a longer line.
The Contenders: a sprint finish seems likely but in the crosswinds we can expect a reduced group. So who has got the legs? Mark Cavendish will be keen to make amends for the Zeeland finish and so will his leadout team which is looking very strong.
André Greipel is in good form and as he showed on Sunday the crosswinds are fine too. He leads the points competition and a win would do his chances of holding the green jersey a lot of good. He was dropped yesterday though. John Degenkolb‘s pure speed remains to be seen against others, this is a good test he’s got an excellent team and the more windy, the better. Peter Sagan should be close but it’s hard to see him winning.
We’ll see Nacer Bouhanni back in the sprints, he’s been going for the intermediate sprints but has been beaten so outsprinting the others looks hard; his one time rival Arnaud Démare is from just down the road in Beauvais but he’s been invisible so far.
One who hasn’t got the legs so far is Alexander Kristoff, telling the press he’s not got the form he enjoyed in the spring classics but he’s still a force to be reckoned with. If it’s a windy day watch for the likes of Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tony Gallopin or Zdeněk Štybar, classics riders who can finish fast.
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Mark Cavendish, André Greipel |
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John Degenkolb |
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Kristoff, Sagan, Bouhanni |
Weather: cool and cloudy with a temperature of 18˚C. There will be steady 30-40km/h breeze which will gust up to 50km/h. The “a spring classic a day” theme continues.
TV: the finish is forecast for 5.15pm Euro time. Check in early to see if the wind is being exploited by the teams.
If you can’t find it on TV you’ll find it online with Cyclingfans and steephill.tv for links to feeds and streams.
Kristoff has not said anything about bad form as a cause for his lack of results. He has had a bit of bad luck with falls and punctures. According to his coach, he is pushing as big as, if not more, wattage as he did in the spring. He will be back, and I guess today.
I’ll have to check the source, think he gave an interview to a German paper. But if he and Stein Ørn say otherwise then it’s good news as the more sprinters in contest the better.
Without dedicated sprint trains–or with impaired trains due to recent crashes and injuries–for sure it’s difficult to call the sprint finish. But based on the forecast of strong winds, perhaps another Zeeland stage we will see today? So, no easy day for the GC hopefuls and their teams. As for the sprinters, those with the strongest team mates in highest numbers to get them to the finish will be the true contenders today. Greipel once again!
Greipel because he has Adam Hansen, who, “eats pain for breakfast” (which he tweeted after dislocating his shoulder), and we all know that is the breakfast of champions!
Greipel’s leadout has suffered. Henderson, his normal leadout guy, is injured and hanging on. Similarly Hansen.
There seems to be a steady wind of 16-20mph forecast for the Amiens area according to the forecast I’ve just looked at. I hope those GC boys have their wits about them. As of yesterday Nibali looked in the mood to try and force things and win a few of his lost seconds back.
I’m actually hoping for a mundane windless stage with a nailed on sprint finish, for 2 reasons. Firstly all the drama of these opening stages plays in to the hands of the big teams. It pays to be at the front and there’s only room for so many. By the time Tinkov, Sky and Quick Step have got themselves lined up there’s no room for anyone else and they will inevitably lose time in any breaks. I’m getting a bit sick of watching Tossato and Bennati hammering it out while Bertie sits in behind sucking on an ice lolly. Look at the situation of all the French GC men, they are all on pretty small lower funded teams and they are all floundering. The best of them is Barguil and he’s on a sprint orientated team surrounded by big rouluers. Is that a coincidence? I’d rather see the GC men battle mano a mano. And, my second reason, I enjoy big bunch sprints. They are a rare beast these days, endangered even.
Agreed, this Tour has favoured the big budget teams who can afford luxury domestiques. Potential winners of the big Spring Classics (with their associated pay cheques) were the ones shepherding Nibali, Contador, Froome and TJ around. Movistar’s leaders showed they can look after themselves though, their rouleurs went missing.
I too enjoy seeing the sprint trains vying for position and the timing and power needed to nail a leadout is really impressive.
On the subject of French teams, I agree.
I was thinking about this the other day – if there is to be a French winner of TdF in the foreseeable future, does the said rider have to be in a non-French team (ie one of the big boys) ?
I think so, sadly. Unless there’s some French billionaire out there who is thinking of investing.
The French Cycling Fed launched a campaign a couple of years ago to try to attract a big corporate sponsor for a national track and road programme. Didn’t come to anything.
I remember Dave Brailsford speaking to some media during the 2013 Tour (possibly on the second rest day) with Froome & Sky clearly going on to notch up consecutive victories. I don’t know if he was in a state of euphoria or if it was the beginning of hubris but he mentioned how he would love to win the Tour with a french rider (Pinot perhaps?). It came across as quite patronizing almost as if the French teams weren’t capable of producing a French winner.
bb: yeah, that was very odd, for all kinds of reasons. Then there was an outcry, and cue Brailsford rowing backwards faster than a competitor in the Boat Race.
Generally speaking, I agree. Notably about the money thing… yet it’s not only about the money. Precisely the two you named (Tosatto and Bennati) aren’t exactly top expensive riders who would be captains during the Spring Classics. They’re very good gregari, with an impressive know-how in complicated classics-style stages, and it’s a merit to have picked them. Maybe it will also turn out to be a problem when Contador will have less help on the mountains. Remember the Giro and how everyone was blaming Tinkoff team? (partly rightly so, partly not that much). On the other hand, you can go around buying sort of cobbles captains like Astana did with Boom but things may not work out perfectly if the team doesn’t work as a unity on that terrain. I suspect that the French teams had similar problems, it’s not like thay didn’t have pretty good support riders for these situations at all (Ladagnous, Vansummeren, Bakelants, Gaudin, Démare himself, and the young Senechal shouldn’t be that bad etc.).
It’s not like Giant has only rouluers and is one only sprint train. There’s Geschke, there would be Dumoulin, who can climb very well.
I hope today is more relaxed for the sake of my nerves… 3 weeks of everyday GC show down will be exhausting!
Betting the house on Cavendish today.
Oh dear. Homeless now?
I remember you used to have maps of the last few K’s of the route in your preview. I am a bit disapointed that they are no longer there, as they actually made the sprint and sprint tactics much more interesting (at least to me).
Any particular reason they are gone?
Ok, let’s put them back in.
Thanks a lot 🙂
I surprised nobody mentioned how well all the big GC contenders did on the cobbled sections yesterday. Other than Pinot they all finished in the front group, with Nibali and amazingly, Froome attacking off the front. I was thinking to myself, if certain interested parties or tactics cannot “get rid” of skinny climber types on the cobbles, then we have a real interesting race on our hands. Were the big men holding back and pacing the climbers on those final sectors or were they really holding their own?
I think the headwind made it difficult for anyone to get a meaningful gap, which was a shame I agree (there’s nothing more I like than a really broken up race…)
“I surprised nobody mentioned how well all the big GC contenders did on the cobbled sections yesterday.”
They did, plenty; see the Stage 4 Review post. Good call by INRNG to separate the reviews from the previews. Just need some folks to remember that they’re guests, or get their own blogs 😉
Oh – I didn’t see the review post, that must be a new thing. I’m a supporter and normal commenter, I think I get a break, dude.
Mark Renshaw will be the most anxious man in the pel0ton this afternoon, eager to drop Cav perfectly in the mix, to spare another dig from the manx missile. It took quite a few defeats by Kittel before Cav removed his ‘Fastest man on two wheels. Fact’ strapline from his website, I only hope he doesn’t get outshone by another German on this tour.
I like the profiles with the kilometers reversed, very useful when watching the stage, if anyone else needs it:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/22582295/Tdf15.profile.stage.05.v01.png
Inrng – any thoughts on why the breaks are going away so easily from the gun?. As I recall it’s usually a real fight for the first 90mins, particularly as non-represented Pro-Conti teams, for example, chase down early moves to get their guys some airtime… it almost looks pre-agreed this year!
The Giro and the Tour have been (not constantly) switching their respective roles in that sense during recent years…
Because right now the breaks have no hope of staying away over such flat terrain and with both the sprinters and the GC teams driving hard.
By contrast things will be wild in the Pyrenees as there won’t be such a chase.
Thanks for the map reinstatement, thats a short final stretch to the line. Which make me think it will favour pure power or fastest kick.
If you read the text you’ll learn it’s a gently sweeping bend rather than a sharp one 😉
so you did! missed that, thank you
I’d say the wind will squash breaks, not promote them. Little to no genuine cross-tail wind means no meaningful splits, just a well-policed Moto 1 off the front, brought back timely. Cav to win.
Both sprints so far have been in to strong head winds / slight uphill run-in.
Does this seem to disadvantage Cavendish ?
He doesn’t have the size / power of Greipel and Sagan, and is mis-timing his surge, going early and getting out-muscled near the line ?
Or is it purely a timing issue ?
The next sprint finish in Le Havre is similar, I understand.
Crash Collateral.
Although debated often and dismissed as impractical. Begging the question, what is possible for injury protection beyond the crash helmet? First, I gather is looking at the empirical view of crash statistics to consider the cost versus benefit of new technology in kits. Second, is what potential effectiveness may be likely if protective kits are developed, being reduction of injury without undue additional burden on the riders. Vaughters, I believe, explained a crash simulating being shoved out of moving vehicle at 70kph. It seems nonsensical in contrast to other high velocity sports (excluding football aka soccer) that such minimal protective effort is the norm. Rider longevity is a prime concern in my imagination. Thoughtful views please. :-\
Shouldn’t discount rugby (the British sort, not American football). Football’s nothing compared to it. Literally you can punch people’s face whilst running at full speed as long as you don’t bend & re-extend your arm.
auto deploying airbag body armor on shoulders and around neck. if they were reusable (ie they deflated afterwards and so would not be bulky or require a bunch of work after a crash) that would be awesome.
If I were a team owner, I’d have the team wearing kit which goes past the elbows and knees and has some slim padding across contact points like knees/hips/elbows/shoulders. Wouldn’t stop breaks but would reduce abrasions and skin injuries. The SCOTT fabric which doesn’t disintegrate under abrasion is perhaps the cleverest thing I’ve seen in this direction to date. Don’t know if anyone is using it and certainly no-one has their knees or elbows covered.
Some Giant-Alpecin riders are wearing Etxeondo Dyneema clothing at the moment and their riders have been ‘testing’ it extensively so far this tour. It’s working.
Personally, I hate having elbows and knees covered, weirdly it’s always my forearms / hips that take the hits and not my knees / elbows if I spill anyway.