Milan-Sanremo Preview

Tadej Pogačar starts a race and for once he’s not the outright favourite. This illustrates the elusive charm of Milan-Sanremo, a race where strongest rider does not necessarily win, it takes craft and luck too.

The Route

289km plus four kilometres of neutralised parade on top. The start’s in Pavia rather than Milan and a lament that cycling has been ejected from Italy’s business capital. But it doesn’t change the sporting aspect of the race, there’s still 115km to Ovada across the Po plains and past many rice fields, this is where the early breakaway will form.

The Passo del Turchino is lifts the race away from the dismal flatlands over to the playground of the Mediterranean coast. It is a genuine mountain pass but a gentle one, 25km at less than 2% and so gentle a regular railway runs alongside for the most part, it’s only when the rails enter a tunnel that the pass kicks up to 5-6% for the final two kilometres. Until recently there was a narrow tunnel at the top where it paid to get through first to start the descent in a good position but it’s been replaced by a wider version and so there’s no bottleneck. The descent to Genoa is longer and more technical.

The race reaches the Via Aurelia coastal road with scenic moments interspersed with hectic passages through towns with roundabouts and protruding kerbs and the jostle for position starts. The three capes arrive, small climbs but by now with 240km done, riders are being ejected by the speed and distance. Positioning now is cuthroat as riders don’t want to cede ground.

The Cipressa is the hardest climb of the day, compounded by the 261km that has preceded it. Listed as 4.1% gradient for 5.6km it’s really over 5% for nearly 4km and then flattens out for a balcony section. The descent is tricky in places, especially for tired riders trying to eek out gains. Then comes nine kilometres back on the Via Aurelia.

The Poggio is less steep and the early ramps are connected by corners where riders often have to dab the brakes because they’re going up so fast. Two thirds of the way up and the road straightens out and the steepest part comes, this is the moneytime moment.

It’s downhill into Sanremo. It’s a tricky descent because of the slender margins, nobody can afford to let a rival take a few bike lengths but it’s not the flowing downhill Super-G schuss, many of the bends require riders to power out of the exit so it suits beefy riders as much as daredevils.

The Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is the complete package. Able to float on the Poggio, he can sting in a Sanremo sprint too. Technically assured, he can exploit the descent and has a sense of the win. He’s had a discreet time at Tirreno-Adriatico and should be all the better for it, it’s energy saved for today.

Team mate Jasper Philipsen starts but was last seen climbing into an ambulance with the right side of his body raw from abrasions from a crash in Nokere, and later reports of a hand injury. Cleared to race he’ll have lost sleep and be sore ahead of a 300km day.

Can Tadej Pogačar (UAE) win? Yes but for a change it’s just not so simple as riding the field off his wheel as there are no climbs steep and long enough for him. The flight of fancy scenario with an attack on the Cipressa is real. and boosted by a tailwind. The more realistic method may just be to tenderise rivals on this climb, then fry them on the Poggio with an attack with the hope that nobody can follow; and the back-up that if some do he might be able to take them in a sprint. His crash in the Strade Bianche matters twice over, once as it will have left him sleepless and sore, second as might just have an extra finger on the brake levers.

Lidl-Trek come with an alluring team with past winner Jasper Stuyven, the in-form duo of Mads Pedersen and Jonathan Milan. Stuyven had a big crash in Tirreno-Adriatico but can still play a crucial role to guide the other two. Pedersen was on the rampage in Paris-Nice so the form is there but how to win? As extravagant as his climbing form seems to be it seems improbable he’ll jump away solo on the Poggio and has it come with a trade-off for speed? Milan though has this base covered and while he is a hulk of a sprinter he’s no flat-track bully, he’s got an athletic side and could cope with the Poggio, especially hoping things regroup. This combination compounds as Pedersen can follow moves and then sit on if needed.

Once invincible in the time trials Filippo Ganna (Ineos) is reinventing himself. He packs a powerful sprint but so do rivals so if he relies on this he’s playing the percentages. Many see a win à la Cancellara where he comes down the Poggio in contention and then barges clear in the streets of Sanremo to take the win. His problem here is this requires a moment’s hesitation from others but he can pounce when everyone is on the ropes, especially if the Poggio has ejected team mates of rivals who would be needed to required to chase. Axel Laurance is an outside sprint card to play too.

Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) has won before and can do it again, give him a few metres and he’s gone while the rest hesitate. But pulling this feat off once in a career is an achievement, twice would be astonishing.

Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) is having a great start to the year and looks renewed and liberated and back to showing his magician-like abilities on a bike. But how to win here? He is good for the Cipressa and Poggio. Many say the Poggio’s descent is technical but it’s one that doesn’t flow so well, it relies on grunt as well for riders to sprint out of corners if they want to take time so he has an advantage here but it’s not massive. He can sprint well but as we saw last year he took a flyer in town only to get caught; the likes of Van der Poel may fancy their chances against him in a sprint.

Locals on the Poggio must recognise Michael Matthews (Jayco) because he can be spotted there several times a week. The Monaco resident dreams of this race and is well-suited which explains why he’s been on the top-10 six times, including second place last year. But he’s now 34 and never a frequent winner. He was discreet in Paris-Nice but this could count in his favour.

Visma-LAB don’t come with a fanfare but with Olav Kooij they’ve got one of the fastest sprinters and he can hope to clear the Poggio in a good position and then deliver. Axel Zingle packs a good sprint but is better suited to uphill finishes, he could be Kooij’s shepherd on the Poggio.

Now comes the long list of contenders. Name the rider and like some chose-your-adventure book we could write how they triumph; only look at the past winners and there are few plucky upstarts. Still outsiders can hope and Magnus Cort (Uno-X) leads a team that’s thriving this season and he’s very fast in the finish. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) leads a team that’s struggling but he’s got what takes to win. Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) returns to racing in Europe and seems suited while team mate Maxim Van Gils is ideal too, he sprints well in a small group and winning this season already, likewise Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) and even Rick Pluimers (Tudor) and so on.

Van der Poel
–
Pogačar, Pedersen, Ganna
Kooij, Philipsen, Pidcock, Milan
Cort, Girmay, Matthews, Mohorič, Van Gils

Weather: overnight rain clearing in the morning and a chilly 7°C then 16°C on the coast.

Crucially there will be a light tailwind following the race all along the Via Aurelia of 15km-20km/h. This does heighten the crash risk as the speed rises but later can reward attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio. These climbs snake up so exploiting the wind in the right places counts.

TV: live from start to finish. The race rolls out at 10.15 CET and tune in early to watch the joint VF- Bardiani-Faizanè and Solution Tech – Vini Fantini team trial as these two invitees crowd the morning breakaway. The capi start at 3.45pm and the Cipressa at 4.15pm but things could run faster with the tailwind. The finish is forecast for 5.00pm CET.

It’s RAI for locals and VPN users but swapping channels from RAI Sport to Rai 2 during the day. Elsewhere it’s on Max-Discovery-Eurosport-TNT, J-Sports in Japan, Flo in Canada and SBS in Australia.

Women’s Sanremo: the race is revived and this will change the rhythm of the day, a peak with the finish at 2.30pm CET. With the men’s race a derogation-demanding event of long distance it’s a pity the women’s event doesn’t borrow from this. Yes it’s just great there’s race back on the calendar but Genoa to Sanremo may be more straightforward without the ultra distance.

Obvious picks are SD Worx-tandem Lotte Kopecky and Lorena Wiebes, with local hopes on Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek) but you’ll get a more detailed and informed preview over at procyclinguk.com.

48 thoughts on “Milan-Sanremo Preview”

  1. A good summary. Thanks. Can’t wait… for the final 50kms;

    On a side point, Lewis Askey is riding after almost 200km at Denain yesterday and almost 190km at Nokere Koerse the day before. That doesn’t sound like sensible preparation for one of the most important races in the calendar. Maybe he’s just there to make up a roster of seven.

  2. I reckon UAE will have a go at softening everyone up on the Cipressa, and Pogacar or maybe Wellens will have a bit of a dig. It will come back together though and we’ll have the usual attack 3/4 of the way up the Poggio by either Pogacar or MvdP. Pedersen, Pidcock and Ganna will just about be able to hold on. There’ll be a bit of semi serious toing and froing in Sanremo, Ganna will launch a long one, MvdP will run out of steam and Pedersen will win with time to get his hands up. Matthews will win the bunch sprint. So there you go.

    • I would be happy to see Pedersen win but I have a feeling that Pogacar is more formidable than ever and will have learnt from last year.

      • The victories of Goss, Gerrans and, in a different way, Ciolek were by-products of the Manie years, then the main reason why RCS doesn’t want that sort of course back. Personally, I loved it, but I must admit that the dynamics it generated favoured wins from athletes of a lesser absolute quality, which the organiser didn’t love, even if the race as such had become really interesting for 3-4 hrs…

        • Gabriele, that’s a good point. I’d overlooked that.

          I have to say I love the current course, but I’m interested (as noted elsewhere) in seeing course changes every now and again. Not to the substance of the race, but to some of the shades and detail.

          • Matt G was exceptionally talented and one of the few sprinter-type riders that Cavendish at his peak really rated. Alas, he didn’t have the work ethic or desire to match the natural talent (his place in Tasmania famously had years worth of sponsor-provided unopened stretching mats and roller kits) and his bikes were junk through pure lack of attention. A shame for us cycling fans but he’s happy now running g a steam railway tourist attraction back home!

            Conversely, Gerrans is a rider who built an incredible palmarès way beyond his natural ability. Clever guy.

          • Yes, he was, I appreciated him much for the glimpses of quality he showed from time to time. Same for Ciolek and even more so Gerrans, others wrote good lines on the subject here. And that string of winners wasn’t of a much different quality from, say, Stuyven or Mohorič, either. What was a death sentence to Le Manie was that they came in a row and that the dynamic was always very similar (lesser rider allowed to get along wheelsucking on a free ride precisely because of his lesser status – not even as a break survivor à la Hayman! – and who turns out to be the most underwhelming winner, technically speaking, over a stellar top 5 or so).

  5. 156km for the women’s race is preposterously short. The whole point of M-SR is the length. At that distance, it’s just a sprinters’ race that happens to end in Sanremo.
    It’s way past time that cycling stopped this misogyny: women are perfectly capable of doing longer races.
    The distance of the women’s race should be (roughly) whatever distance would take the same time as the men’s race will take.

    • From what little I’ve read on the subject a number of top racers have welcomed the return of the race and are not unhappy with a race around that distance. Annamiek van Vleuten campaigned for a much longer distance but she seems to be the outlier.

      The return of Milan-San Remo Donne is a great start and the course and distance will surely evolve. What I think is irrelevant but I see no need for it to mirror the men’s race.

      What is interesting is that the most significant new men’s classic of recent years, Strade Bianche, started at c. 185km and has only lately lengthened to c. 215km, a distance some feel has not enhanced the race as a spectacle.

      Times change.

      • Strade Bianche is not a monument – which is absolutely fine – and its length is one of the reasons it never will be (despite what some TV commentators like to suggest).

        I’m certainly not saying that all races should be long (I wouldn’t change the distance of Strade Bianche, for instance) or that longer races are better, but the length is what makes M-SR what it is (true of all monuments, but particularly this one).

        I also don’t think that women’s races should mirror men’s races, but while you say the ‘distance will surely evolve’, women’s races are consistently far shorter than they need to be. A woman can ride a bike for 6 hours, just like a man can.

        • For whom are women’s races far shorter than they need to be? The audience? I’m not seeing the women’s peloton itself saying MSR Donne needs to be six or seven hours long.

          We are at least in agreement that Strade Bianche is not a monument…!

    • Agreed. They rode Trofeo Alfredo Binda last week with almost as many kms. Couldn’t the organisers find something around 200kms, otherwise it’s just routine.

    • As a mere side note (the whole debate is complex and interesting) during the first 75 minutes the women averaged 44 km/h on a slightly more rolling course while the men were at 45 km/h on a totally flat one. Obviously we’re speaking of two totally different situations, but the mere fact that the quantitative difference is so reduced is telling. The women peloton’s got rising average athletical depth and this kind of terrain (and length) prompts athletically (not necessarily tactically) aggressive racing, whereas the men are on a waiting game which is further slowed down by the decreasing athletical depth of the field.

    • Is 156km preposterously short for the women’s race? You may well be correct. And surely, if they trained for it, women would be capable of a 6-hour race.

      BUT, we have to remember the race is on public rounds. We need to be grateful that the local people have agreed to have their road closed so we can enjoy the race; and note that the race organisers don’t pay for this closure. Part of the reason the local government authority agrees to this is that people get to see their local region. The problem is that women’s sport (rightly or wrongly) gets much lower viewer numbers, which makes it much harder to justify closing the road. Lets appreciate the fact that the road has been closed at all for our entertainment.

      • “Much lower”, especially in Classics, is a bit exaggerated. And the trends are on their side.
        If you then also consider which markets might tourist offices be interested in…

        Feel assured that the race is held because it brings a series of advantages, not as Italy or RCS are caring about equality (I’ll admit they’ve been probably forced to by third parties, up to a certain point).

  6. I presume van Aert is saving himself for the cobbles, but this seems a mistake. He’s 30 and has one monument to his name, and a rider of his calibre shouldn’t be missing a race as big as this.

    • We’ll know in four weeks whether it was a mistake or not!

      Hopefully fate doesn’t conspire again to deny him the opportunity and he starts RVV and PR healthy and fit.

      • Winning one of the other monuments isn’t necessarily dependent on him not racing this one.

        But yes, I really hope we see him at full strength and without unfortunate punctures, etc.

    • I think he’d rather go all in for Flanders and Roubaix rather than invest effort attempting a second MSR victory: a cobbled monument is just so, so much more valuable to his palmares… it would be viewed as a disappointment (maybe even a failure) if he never won one (a bit like Sagan never winning MSR).

      Flanders must be a particular target, though I reckon, with Pogacar around, WvA’s chances are better at Roubaix

      • I think van Aert is a good enough climber to stay with Pogacar in the Ronde. MVDP managed it once and he’s not as good a climber as WVA.

        • On short walls, MvdP is proportionally better, as seen multiple times and in CX, too. WVA could fancy his chances on Oude Kwaremont à la Pogi, of course.

          • But then comes the Paterberg…

            Whatismore, and always speaking in relative terms, you need to be closer in strength to your stronger rival to keep him on the Paterberg than on the Oude Kwaremont. Slight parametres which are shifted by details, at this level, which makes the two Pog vs. MvdP Ronde rounds we’ve had sooo good.

            Anyway, 100% agree that the presence of a third element representing a middle ground of sort would make it an even more wonderful “three bodies problem”…

  7. Using your limited resources carefully is to “eke out”

    To eek out describes the noises I make when watching them do that on a tricky descent

  8. I agree with your ‘ring’ rankings. If Pog hadn’t fallen in Strade i would give him a 4, he’s so good at just riding others off his wheel. Pedersen’s form is very good, so I imagine he would be able to follow MvdP and Pog on the poggio this year, but how to beat MvdP? Would he have to descend better? Perhaps his preference would be to get away with Pog only and beat him in a sprint.

      • Funnily your response only appeared once I hit post on mine. Seems like we were watching the same races. I really hope Trek can challenge again MVDP and Pogi, it makes racing more exciting.

      • He said this week he really needs a team to be able to do this, that he’s not as strong as Van der Poel but if he can get a tactical advantage then he knows he can turn the tables. The interesting thing is that he is saying this out loud, he was also saying he might not be able to beat Pogačar in Flanders but he’ll try as even Pogačar is up the road after attacking up the Oude Kwaremont he could puncture etc so the win is always in play until the end. When he’s in the right interview his answers are refreshing for their frankness.

  9. Can we expect G Thomas to be visible at some stage… grafting for Ganna? I hope he’s not just there to make up team numbers. It would be a pity for his distinguished career to peter out in anonymity.

  11. So, MvdP can float and sting, while Pogačar can tenderise and fry… Perhaps, after the overnight news, the appropriate boxing/culinary metaphors are: you need a team that can grill the opponents and then pack a big punch. So, I’m going for Big Mads leading out Even Bigger Jonathan Milan to victory.

  12. Would be at all realistic a thought that Pogacar could attack from the bottom of the Cipressa?
    The idea being that he looks better suited to a longer attack rather than a punch, plus it would force the contenders into more of a dilemma about who commits to chasing.

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