World Tour Promotion-Relegation Update

46 thoughts on “World Tour Promotion-Relegation Update”

1. I’m rather baffled that Ineos is still third, given they’ve been criticised pretty much non-stop this season for under-performing.

   • That surprised me as well. Over the last 12 months (so including the back end of last season, post Tour de Frsbce), their top scorers were:

     Rodriguez – 1276
     Ganna – 918
     Narvaez – 881
     Pidcock – 874
     Bernal – 805
     Tarling – 630
     Thomas – 568

     It’s pretty thin pickings, but I suspect also shows that the points don’t always equate to visibility. For example – Bernal having nearly half as many points again as Thomas, and practically equal to Pidcock? Yet in that time Thomas has had a Grand Tour podium and Pidcock a classic win – and Bernal has achieved what, exactly? He’s had top 10 overall (but no wins) in five stage races this year, including four at WT level – so harvested lots of points but in a largely anonymous fashion.

     Carlos Rodriguez is the 11th best rider on points this year – but you need 7 of him to equal Pogačar. I don’t think they have any other rider in the top 20 this season.

     • Bernal did look slightly promising earlier in the season so it was a pity that he seemed to be struggling so much in the Tour.

   • They had a strong May, Rodriguez winning Romandie and then Giro of course. But slipped to third this this year after Visma jumped from fifth to second, I think it’s more they’re judged against expectations.

     • I suppose they’re expected to win. A lot. And they haven’t been doing that…but they’re also never out of the picture entirely, and so I would guess they’ve been harvesting a lot of points from top 5 / top 10 positions in both stages/one-days & GC.

   • They have unrealistic expectations at this point in my opinion. Right now they are in a transition period. they are losing their long time GC/Super Dom. They have several young stars with high expectations in the future in Rodriguez, Pidcock, and Tarling. Ghana, Sheffield are both very strong and should be around a while.

     I am not sure any team is going to find a talent that can compete with Jonas and Pogocar for a while.

     • Excellent points! I absolutely despised Sky, but over the past couple of years I have warmed to Ineos (except Pidcock) and I think some of the criticism has been excessively harsh. They have had excellent Giros over the past two years and were a whisker away from the win in 2023. They have been fairly strong in the spring, and who knows where they would be if Bernal even had a normal injury rather than what he had. This year’s Tour was a bit of a shocker to be honest, but other than that they really haven’t been that bad. As you pointed out, it won’t be easy to find a GC rider who can seriously challenge for the yellow jersey any time soon.

       • I’d honestly like to see Ineos concentrate on revamping their classics squad rather than trying to compete against Visma and UAE. They have Rodriguez, who may or may not improve, as well as a few very young riders who may develop into GC contenders down the line. Unless they manage to sign Remco, it’s hard to see them scoring a grand tour win in the short term. There would be much more upside to trying to win monuments and classics than obsessing over winning the Tour.

         • Rodriguez is decent but even if he improves he’s going to be a long way off the best.
           If they want a GT contender for next season, they need to spash the cash on Remco.

         • Andrew August looked good on the Czech Tour. Only 18 he’s got time on his side.

         • They should send Rodriguez to the Giro next year since there’s no way Pogacar, Vingegaard or Evenpoel is going there next season. If he’s really a guy who will improve enough to be a real contender he wins the Giro next year.

       • Craig – “over the past couple of years I have warmed to Ineos (except Pidcock)”
         I have to agree with you about Pidcock. I don’t follow mtb, but became aware of the controversy regarding his Olympic win. Reminds one of what Schwartzbauer said after the last ‘incident’:
         ‘When asked if he was hoping for an apology from Pidcock, Schwarzbauer said: “Yes for sure, but in the end I would rather hope that he doesn’t do it again. That would be more important for me than an apology.”’

         • I’m no Pidcock fan, and I thought his move on Schwarzbauer was dodgy to say the least, but to me his pass on Monday was a perfectly acceptable racing move

     • Currently lying third in the overall Olympics’ medal table. Bet Ratcliffe’s investment per medal is a lot less than GB who are just ahead of them.

2. Decathlon – AG2R has now gone a month without a single win! (The last three were national championships with Hänninen, Lapeira and Armirail.)

   But even so, they are the only team that has won more points in 2024 than in the whole of 2023 – and with a huge margin: 10,101 – 9,109!

   • Maybe it wasn’t the new bikes then? 😉

     You could see looking at the Tour team it was going to be hard. Bennett racked up wins in Dunkerque but hadn’t won a World Tour level sprint. The team had baroudeurs but there were few stages for baroudeurs. Plus with hindsight we now know Gall was injured and ill before the Tour which wasn’t explained before so he was going to struggle to climb like last year.

     Can see Benoît Cosnefroy back to winning ways soon, the Tour du Limousin and the Quebec races while Gall and possibly Lafay can thrive in the Vuelta etc.

     • Yes, the team was built around two uncertain riders. The Groupama situation is maybe more problematic : Gaudu is lost, Grégoire has difficulties to confirm, Martinez goes away, Pithie too, maybe Küng… They loose their golden Conti generation, and the Conti has been less convincing for two years, lot less than the Decathlon one. Recruiting Martin won’t fix the problem. The team seems a little bit lost in transition.

       • Madouas seems to be most consistent at Groupama. #25 and two hours back in the GC may be at little less than hoped, but at least he tried and hung on to the end. Interestingly enough he himself said he would never be able to match his #10 in the 2022 GC again, but who knows, even in the age of 7+ watts/kg..

3. The TdF points haul confirms just how poor FDJ were… I can’t think of a single thing they did in the whole race.

   I wonder if Arkea and Astana’s early TdF success dampened any subsequent ambition? Cav certainly seemed to be taking fewer risks at the end of sprint stages. I guess, for Arkea, breakaway chances were scarce for everyone . But I don’t recall them making many more attempts?

   • Champoussin and Rodriguez tried at times for Arkéa but not much chance of a big result. Vauquelin is another example of how you need a top rider just to win from a “small” breakaway. The lucky, plucky breakaway hero is almost over.

     • Was Lenny Martinez sick during the Tour. He was non-existent. He wins any small climbing race in France but couldn’t stay with the top 30 of any climb in the Tour?

       • Almost, he was tired. He was drained in the Tour de Suisse which was supposed to be his last race before a long break and then the Vuelta but the team seems to have gambled he might still be able to pull something out and picked him at the last minute, a further surprise as he’s leaving the team and normally only riders who are core to the team go to the Tour. He just got more tired. We’ll surely see more of him in the coming years.

         • They tried a Pinot 2011′ coup… As said before (sorry, didn’t see that conversation when I wrote the above), they’ve lost the path and search it in the past of the team… I didn’t think Pinot’s departure would do so much harm to the team, but all the young hopes are having a hard time or leaving.

         • I suppose Martinez must have pushed for inclusion – a sign of confidence or rather over-confidence – though FDJ should have resisted. It was maybe a sign of FDJ’s desperation for results and a failed experiment which will have sapped the rider’s self-belief.

         • From the sounds of it Martinez didn’t insist, they wanted him more.

         • If FDJ pushed Martinez into the TdF squad against his will it was unwise, and also a sign of desperation – maybe even irritation that a former Conti rider wasn’t more loyal.

           Who do they have left for a deceent Vuelta roster now?

   • Last year, FdJ had a lot of publicity – by the virtue of Pinot’s epilogue. This season, Madiot probably surmised he’d better got the headlines *before* the race started – with his ridiculous claims about the race being baked after Galibier.

     • FDJ are seeing how hard life is without a pure sprinter. They have lots who could win from a reduced field on a lucky day (Penhoet, Pithie, Watson, Askey…) but it’s not enough. Saying that, letting Demare go was wise but picking the right replacement is hard. Is there good French sprinter?

     • The top three after the Galibier stage were the top three at the end of the race, although second and third swapped places. Maybe Madiot knows a thing or two about bike racing after all?

       • No. He claimed Pogacar would have unsurmountable lead based on constant UAE attacking from stage 1. And therefore there would be lot of opportunities for breakaway after Galibier. That Madiot’s claim aged particularly well, didn’t it?

         He just wanted to be quoted a lot.

         • Well if not exactly an “unsurmountable lead” it was at least clear after Galibier that UAE could demolish the field, and that the Tour was Pog’s to lose. So Madiot wasn’t that far from the mark.

4. Teams likely to be out of the WT will find it hard to lure guaranteed points scorers who will easily find a place with a better funded, more secure and better organised team. They’ll also find it hard to compensate with better remuneration needed unless, like IPS, they can find a cycling-mad sugar daddy. After a sticky start IPS have made some wise recruitment choices but who is now available for the likes of Arkéa?

   • David Gaudu for 2026? A return to Brittany, new challenges, already looking forward to the family atmosphere… can almost read the press release now.

     It’s not easy to see who is available and who they can afford to sign. The likes of Tudor are building a better squad and investing more as well. But Arkéa have made some clever signings, Mozzato as the obvious example.

     • Gaudu? Interesting suggestion, and if he doesn’t turn things around over the next 12 months or so, he might have no WT options left. However, would Arkéa want to risk it? He could become their Peter Sagan, or at least a cheaper version of it. They probably already regret appointing Démare, who has so far looked detached from his team (and his job) in most of his appearances. It seems unlikely that they would want to roll the dice yet again if relegated, especially since their great spring was due to a very different type of riders.

       Many thanks for the update on the points standings, as always. Much appreciated!

   • In the PCS rankings there are 4 French riders in the top 50, with the highest ranked being Cosnefroy at no. 24 and Bardet on his way out. How much of the French teams’ struggles is due to a shallow French talent pool?

   • Difficult choices for Arkea, could turn out to be a case of ‘damned if you Gaudu, damned if you Gaudon’t…’ We’ll find out soon enough!

5. Dumb question cause I’m pretty sure it was asked and answered before: Are there points to grab at Olympics?
   If I look at today’s PCS results page, it seems there are points…

   • Yes, 455, 325, 260 for the podium today and about double that for the road races.

     Full tables if you scroll at https://inrng.com/2024/01/uci-points-rankings-2024

     • That is kind of awkward. They are racing for/with their national teams, but their trade teams get the points?

       • Yes, but the rider is coached by their team, on their team’s bike etc. It’s perhaps as awkward to point out that yesterday’s TT results probably had little to the respective national countries, other than the accident of birth and a skinsuit.

       • The trade teams don’t really “get” the points as such, they don’t actually own any world ranking points in their own right and only get to add together the individual totals won by the riders on their team while contracted for that team.

         The point is that national team racing is a good thing, and so the UCI allowing the teams to benefit from the ranking points is a fair pay off for the cost of supporting their riders who are honoured with national representative selection.

         It doesn’t just apply to the Olympics, but any time they enter a road race in a national representative team such as World Championships, Continental Championships, second tier multi-sport events like the Commonwealth Games or Asian Games, national team entries in UCI classified races etc.

         The reverse is also true in that there are national rankings used to determine qualification for the Olympics and the World Championships, which are made up of adding together the best riders’ individual totals in a similar manner to the team ranking.

     • At least that will be good for Ineos, who I think had the most riders of any trade team in the TT with five.

6. >First just look at the top. UAE keep pushing the x-axis out. With over 26,000 points for 2024 they’re on more than double the next team.

   Have you truncated the x-axis of the first graph? Unless my eyes are deceiving me, UAE’s blue column is not double the width of that of Visma.

   • The graph is the cumulative 2023-2025 total, so it’s 57k vs 42k rather than 26k vs 12k.

     WorldTour qualification is based on adding together the team rankings from the previous three seasons. All licences will be awarded en bloc at the end of the 2025 season so they will use the 2023+2024+2025 seasons.

   • It’s UAE’s blue bit that has been shortened, I assume to make it fit on the page!

7. Ineos racking up wins in Paris. Too bad it’s all MTB.

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