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A Forecast for Contador

There are huge industries dedicated towards predicting the future.

Meteorologists try to predict the weather, only they struggle to get things right when they look more than four days ahead. French radio often carries adverts for clairevoyants, literally someone with clear vision, one call on a premium phone line and you can speak to somebody who’s going to predict your future! But the greatest shysters work in finance where you’ll find “economists” and analysts offering forecasts on GDP data, exchange rates and company profits, yet they are more often wrong only they keep at it. If meteorologists struggle to get the weather right for the weekend, it’s absurd for someone to forecast where an exchange rate will be… in a year’s time.

So what I’m saying is that we humans struggle to predict events. But we’re also suckers for prediction and phrophecy! With this in mind, here is why Contador is going to win today:

  • Schleck will try to attack early, Contador will follow him. Schleck will therefore end up tired, leaving Contador ready to pounce in the final two kilometres
  • Contador is rumoured to be suffering from hayfever. With the bad weather, Contador’s lungs will be opened up
  • The heat has been sapping the explosive riders, including Contador. Today’s colder weather will suit an explosive Contador, rather than the slightly steadier Schleck
  • Contador has yet to win a stage and it’s said he’s keen to land a win in the race
  • Astana are proving stronger, Saxo just don’t have what it takes once the roads get steep

We’ll see. Either way today’s stage looks exciting.

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