Paris-Roubaix Preview

95 thoughts on “Paris-Roubaix Preview”

1. Nice coincidence that this happens the same weekend as the Grand National. Both absolute lotteries in terms of picking a winner and both will have plenty of fallers.

   That said, it’s hard to look past Kristoff if he doesn’t come unstuck with punctures, mechanicals or a fall.

   I expect plenty of teams will attack Katusha on the pave so Paolini will have to earn his money and keep him well positioned.

   • Druids Nephew and Wiggins..

     • Fallers?

     • I had my money on Red Rum. Where did he finish?

       • in a beefburger, like they all do.

2. I think Wiggins may surprise a few people… make of that what you will!

   In last year’s race he was never at the very front but made the final selection when the pace eased back in the final sectors and the fragmented breakaways reformed before Terpstra attacked.

   Alternatively we get to see one last sulky bike toss after a mechanical and then we don’t see his sulking anonymity in the pack.

   The TT World Championships show he can perform at the very highest level when he wants to, maybe so far this spring its been about avoiding incidents, gaining experience and topping up form?

   • I’ll take that.
     I was very surprised to see him in the final move last year and the effort made me appreciate him much more (after he had been boring so much in the Tour he won).
     He surprised me again in the world TT.
     Stybar sees him as the most important contender.

     So why not?

   • Roubaix is no statistically programmed ITT and so working to power output, timings and stuff like that just doesn’t work. This is why Wiggins won’t win.

     • Roubaix is the most statistically analyzable of the Spring, with a large helping of chance folded into the mix.

       The only reason everyone talks so much about Wiggins’ failures is because of all of his successes…

       • Wiggins did well last year due to being helped by Thomas- he wont return the favour so the best thing that can happen for Sky is that he looses interest early doors- a scenario that is not unlikely.

       • I’m happy to agree with Sean Kelly that, for his talent, Wiggins should have achieved more. The fact is that by the time Sky started backing Wiggins on the road they already had a better rider called Chris Froome. Froome would have won the Vuelta in ’11 if Sky had backed the right man and the Tour in ’12 had they not backed Wiggins. Thereafter, Wiggins was demoted and hasn’t gone toe to toe with the top on the road really since, settling for lesser targets against lesser riders (save for his ITT success and P-R ’14).

         That said, IF he does win tomorrow it will make him one of the greatest all-rounders (road + track) of all time.

         • True that Froome’s chances were reduced by team tactics, especially during that Vuelta, quite false that he “would have won”. It’s a possibility, I agree, but far it’s far from granted.
           Perplexing it may be, that year Cobo appeared just stronger.
           And the 2012 Tour… well, it just had a “poorly balanced” course (to say so, we can also consider it a legitimate decision by ASO, strategic in many senses), since it favoured ITT specialists quite a lot.
           There’s not so much of team strategy in ITT (yes, you can have some form of team strategy, like asking the gregari to sit back, but apparently it wasn’t Froome’s case), and Froome was more than 2′ down compared with Wiggins. With the “easy” mountains featured by the race that year, him surging and taking the victory from his teammate is far from certain.

         • Undoubtedly, Sky backed the wrong man in the 2011 Vuelta – and Cobo’s win isn’t perplexing: he was drugged up to the eyeballs, so he could get one big contract (look at his palmares before and since – especially since). (And he can’t wear a helmet properly.)
           As for the 2012 TDF, we’ll just never know – but you can’t fault Sky there: they got a 1-2. (Also, mind-numbingly dull though it was, that’s not Wiggins’s fault; that’s all of his competitors’ fault for failing to challenge him.)
           Wiggins is nowhere near as bad and nowhere near as good as those lacking objectivity say he is: his palmares is impressively varied, whilst at the same time his grand tour record is two thirds, apart from the win. He’s not a donkey and he’s not Hinault.
           I think a lot of people – myself included – are just irritated by the hype (but, again, that’s not his fault).

         • For hype and hyperbole, see Sean Yates on Cyclingnews.

         • without Michelle Cound’s money, we’d never have even heard the name Froome. He’s a dog…

         • ‘Anonymous’ – See Gabriele’s comment below about doping accusations; or at least spell out what you actually mean – with evidence, preferably.

3. 40/1 on Greipel… with the form he had at Ronde I think it’s worth a punt. If he wins I’ll be going bananas!

   • If he rides like Flanders, he’ll be cooked before the end, and it seems he’s been cooked all week due to that ride!

     Inrng – Is there a reason why Lotto-Soudal don’t try protecting Greipel a little more? If he could get to the end he’d be a favourite. Can he not last the distance?

     • Greipel was on Belgian TV this week saying the classics are where he repays the team for their work for him in the summer. He’s riding for Roetlands

4. My heart says Wiggo just for the great story it would make, despite my dislike for SKY. Same with Sagan who could finally get the 1000 kg monkey off his back. My head says all that stands in Kristoff’s way is bad luck…….and John Degenkolb. In the spirit of Paris-Roubaix we took a little ride today over a road with paving stones as vicious as those of the Hell of the North. Not only that, it was a switchbacked climb as well! But we used MTB’s as there’s ZERO chance I could ride this climb without 2.0″ tires @ 40 psi. Tomorrow we’ll bounce around on cobbles even worse on the Appia Antica in Rome before settling in to watch the big boyz battle it out.

   • + 1

5. I am going to take a chance and say Devolder.

   • That seems about as likely as seeing Elvis. 🙂

6. My money is on Sep Vanmarcke. He will attack on the Carrefour de’l Arbre.

7. Glad you didn’t go heavy on the Wiggins hyperbole. To my mind he should be happy if he gets near the top ten again. Roubaix, as you said, is a most unpredictable race. You can’t program it like a track meet or a Tour stage. Has Wiggins got the nous and the guts and the luck?

   No chance.

   PS Going with Kristoff to make it a classics season to remember!

   • Whereas as you, for the umpteenth time go heavy on the anti-Wiggins hyperbole. Give it a rest, will you?

     • Let’s debate the ideas. If you think Andrew E is wrong, let’s hear how Wiggins can win, what scenario do you think he needs?

       • Sorry, that was me. I am not sure that Andrew E is interested in debating. He seems to take every opportunity to have a go at Wiggins. I would be surprised if he wins tomorrow but that doesn’t take away from his status as the best British rider of this generation. I am not sure if there is anything wrong with being a fan.

         • Wondered when you would turn up tovarish. I said wiggo would get shelled out on the oude kwatemont last week. A little flippant I know but didn’t he just ride round at the back of the ronde abusing pinarellos on the way? As intng pointed out he has no history of winning individual races other than its why would he suddenly start winning with the queen of classics. And how? TT away from everybody in a world class field? Not a likely scenario is it?

     • Wiggins fanboys are forever touchy. Its almost as if they are imitating their hero. I said why I think Wiggins can’t win. You tell us why, on form and with recent history, he can.

       • Simple really, P-R is definitely an event for riders with big engines and core strength. As current world TT champion, he definitely has those. He has also put a huge effort into preparing himself for this event. As I said, I don’t expect him to win but it is disingenuous to write off his chances so lightly.

         • Wiggins 1st, Degenkolb 2nd, Sagan 3rd

         • Strange as it may seem I am, or was, a big Wiggins fan. His career post Olympic Gold though has left me disillusioned with him and his road career. As I said above, Sean Kelly’s appraisal seems best: he has under-achieved.

   • why you think wiggins lacks nous? and wouldnt you call it rather gutsy to try winning p-r a the end of such a career?

8. I’m going with GVA for three reasons.

   1. He’s super strong, as has been proved by him constantly being at the business end of hard classics over the past few years.

   2. He’s got a great team. BMC have looked better this year than they have in the past, especially Oss who could be key (or as INRNG suggests, a second option).

   3. Statistical probability. He’s been on the podium of big classics so often the law of averages means he has to wind up on the top step eventually.

   • He does seem to be due.

     Sad that Phinney is not available to help.

     • Agreed, anyone got any word on Phinney’s return to racing? Tour of California maybe?

       • There is no timetable yet on Taylor Phinney’s return to competition.

9. Paris Roubaix will prove once again to be the most race of them all and will elude Kristoff. Boom wins from a small group – maybe with Vanmarcke and Sagan on the podium? I would love to see Sagan but I think he needs a complete reboot.

10. It’s much easier (for me) to figure out which pavé they’re on using [Distance Remaining], which is the data point provided by the broadcast. If my math is correct:

    Sector Distance from Velodrome (km)
    27 155 – 152.8
    26 148.5 – 146.7
    25 145.5 – 141.8
    24 141 – 139.5
    23 133 – 130.7
    22 123.5 – 121.9
    21 120 – 117.5
    20 117 – 115.4
    19 104 – 101.5
    18 95.5 – 93.1
    17 89.5 – 87.9
    16 83 – 79.3
    15 75.5 – 73.1
    14 72 – 69.6
    13 65.5 – 64.1
    12 60.5 – 58.8
    11 54.5 – 51.8
    10 49 – 46
    9 43 – 42.3
    8 36 – 34.6
    7 33.5 – 33
    6 27 – 25.7
    6b 24.5 – 23.4
    5 20 – 18.2
    4 17 – 14.9
    3 15 – 13.9
    2 8 – 6.6
    1 1.5 – 1.2
    0 0 – 0

    • Very helpful, thanks

11. Not sure why everyone is do down on Wiggins chances. I’m not a Wiggins fan but he looked good last year, is built for it, and is the worlds best tt’r right now. Plus had a strong team. Sounds like a lot of Froone fans want to see him lose.

    • He’s won three road races in a 15 year pro career, one of which was the national championships so a reasonably shallow field and another other was the Tour de l’Avenir. His record of success in one day races isn’t proven. Still he can get into TT mode in this race and try to ride away but go early and he risks being brought back, leave it late and it’ll be very tactical.

      • It’s such a striking stat that it is well worth repeating. 3 road races in 15 years! Given the press hype around him for this race ( and generally), I would never have guessed that his road wins would be so sparse.

        Wiggins has many talent but most of all the ability to generate news copy. Win or lose tomorrow, I look forward to fewer Wiggin’s news stories in the future but that’s just me.

        • The interesting thing is that Wiggins says he just wants to reach Roubaix first, it’s sections of the media who go to town with the coverage. Presumably his high profile celebrity status in Britain accounts for some of this and his Tour de France status means he’s a more familiar name around the world than Vanmarcke or Kristoff etc.

          • Inrng, I expect better of you than that. It isn’t just the British media that are talking about this as Wiggins last race at this level. He is iconic because he has the unique (?) achievement of both World and Olympic championships on the road and on the track. I didn’t notice anyone complaining about the eulogising of Cadel Evans on his retirement.

          • Perhaps you read me wrong, I’m not complaining about the amount of coverage, as you say his status is why there’s a lot of focus on him.

        • O’Grady, Vansummeren, Backstedt,Knaven. There are plenty of past winners with no real one day form.

          • My take is those guys were super domestiques who often raced in this format and essentially had a lucky day in the way the race played out. They’re not on the winning list because that was rarely their role. I am neither fan nor critic of Wiggo and just hope that he has a decent day which settles things once and for all. He is a great bike rider and has the good grace & luck to be retiring on one of the greatest days of the year.

            As for his chances: If I were to use a bookmakers’ cold logic; Wiggo has mostly won when he is in control of his environment. Track, TT, GT. He does not seem to thrive when things get messy or complicated. Thus, if I were a bookie, I’d be giving long odds.

    • I think Inrng has it right. Wiggins has no great record of winning road races. If anything, people should be asking why his fans think he can win when he has so little history of it ON THE ROAD.

      • Because their fans: so objectivity is removed. O’Grady, Vansummeren, Backstedt, Knaven were all P-R regulars, whereas Wiggins has done well once. In his favour is his obvious physical ability; against him is the fact that other than last year he’s never shown any great aptitude for either cobbles or one day racing.

        • Personally, I always want British riders to lose. Not because of my utter disdain for nationalism, but because if cycling becomes popular in Britain (so this applies especially to the TDF) I might end up having to pay Sky £40 a month to watch it, instead of £4 to Eurosport.

          • Ha. I love this comment.

12. Rode the P-R Sportif today. Arenberg was like an ice-rink covered with slime.

    I’ll be astonished if no-one crashes there tomorrow.

    • I would be equally astonished if nobody crashes there under ‘perfect’ conditions.

      • AFAIR, nobody went down in the forest last year.

13. Degenkolb beat Kristoff in the sprint last time they went head to head in a sprint, so if they arrive together I don’t know what will happen. I expect many long range attacks from Good riders to avoid getting to the velodrome with either of them, so I’m hopeful for an interesting edition. Bring it on!

    • It was a 350 m sprint for Kristoff. Although Degenkolb started far behind I think Kristoff wins head to head.

      I think i showed he have the acceleration with what must have been very tired legs after being the engine in a 28 km brake away in RVV. Terpstra isn´t a sprinter, but still.

14. I am thinking Sagan is being underestimated here. I think he may well win. GVA is another good bet. Wiggins? In my view he is a rank outsider.

15. I’ll never get over that Paolini stopped his lead out 75m for early Milan – Sanremo. Could he not waited 100m to hit the front ?

    M – SR , RRV and PR in the same season had made Kristoff the hero he deserves to be.

    • He hasn’t won PR.
      And presumably Paolini was tired having dragged Kristoff all the way up the Poggio.

      • Sorry*: If he wins tomorrow i´ll never forget:) Now its okei.

        Paolini did a fantastic job. What he did up Poggio is some of the best I’ve seen by a domestique. BUT: when he obviously was tired, why did he hit the front with 1 k to go?

        Anyway: it´s a shame that Kristoff don´t have a better team around him . It´s not too much to ask that the world’s best classic rider has two domestique afterPoggio, or at least one with fresh legs.

        Then Kristoff is almost unbeatable in M- SR.

16. I think Wiggins does have a chance of winning, but Thomas seems like the stronger Sky rider at the moment, but of course this is Paris-Roubaix. Anything can happen. I would like to see Sagan take it but I have a sense of inevitability that Kristoff will win; Katusha are just on fire right now.

17. Wiggins creates an enormous amount of enmity, which is a great shame. He is a personality who has helped generate terrific global interest in the sport. His success has been without the use of illicit drugs when he comes from the tail end of a generation that largely relied on drugs.

    It appears the enmity stems from his Tour de France success. Where many of his detractors say Froome should have won that year. Froome was not employed to win, he was employed to help Wiggins win. Froome tried to upstage Wiggins but was unable to follow up that attempt to upstage in the TT’s which formed an integral part of the Tour that year. Wiggins won, end of story. So can he win Paris Roubaix? Yes of course he can. Why? First off the race itself is a bit of a lottery and luck plays its part. Second, he has the cycling strength, the determination and the support required. Finally, if he makes it to velodrome and is in with a shout of winning, Ttere can few better experienced riders in the field when it comes to a track race. I hope he does well and would be delighted for him to win, even just for the romance of such an achievement.

    • Cycling has a fundamental problem. Everyone the federation likes is clean until the statute of limitations kicks in. You want me to believe a guy that somehow wins a single grand tour, and podiums one other time at the same event did it clean.

      This is cycling. It’s only a matter of time.

      • The difference with Wiggins’s victory in the TDF was that it was so unexceptional – he didn’t blast the others away, he just churned up the hills in his own style.
        Also, the riders who have been found doping were rarely so vociferous in their condemnation of doping – because they feared being outed by others/looking silly when caught – with one obvious exception (and look how vilified that person has – rightly – been since caught).

        • I can remember various exceptions to the correlation between being vocal against doping and being clean.

          That said (and not answering to J Evans anymore), I feel that crazy conjectures about specific riders being clean or not is part of the wind of change that the closing of CN’s comments section has brought to inrng – I’m not here since very long ago, hence I’m not sure if it was usual before, but for certain it wasn’t in my first months on these pages.
          Is that really needed, considering that we won’t know before ten years or so (if ever)?
          Trying your guess about the winner of the following race or about the racing season can be fun, you’ll be able to check if you were right… but this?
          Don’t get me wrong, postmodern cycling has found a new source of entertainment in debating if a team/rider is clean and why you can argue that or the contrary, but I somehow feel that’s a more private form of entertainment, whose appropriate context would be in person, with friend, with a clearer joking attitude.
          When it’s made publicly, to prove other points, it looks like a tricky argument, since nobody will soon be able to state that it’s valid or not.
          Discussing the possible general state of cycling is equally theological, but at least lacks of the inquisitorial (or exonerative) part that makes the “bespoke”, tailor-made debate sound a little cynical, too, both when people try to assume than “X” was clean and when they try to show that, no, “HE” was a dope. Whenever we look at doping in a very personalised way, we are getting it wrong, IMHO. Rant mode off 😉

          • True, it’s no guarantee.

            As for the second part of your comment, I completely agree: see the quote from above ‘without Michelle Cound’s money, we’d never have even heard the name Froome. He’s a dog…’ – baseless, anonymous and meaningless.

    • +1

18. about the wiggins saga: today is a good portrait of him and his career in the renowned swiss newspaper NZZ (its in german)

    http://www.nzz.ch/sport/bradley-wiggins–anarchist-und-analytiker-1.18519864

    • Cheers, read that via Google translate. Interesting piece.

19. I hope it rains so all the wiggo fans cry when their champ steps off the bike on the first set of pave.

    • There are I believe as many evidence of Wiggins riding on the limit and winning in the rain as there is of him “descending like a girl” as he unfortunately put it.

      If it rains I still expect Wiggins to do well.

    • This comment made me laugh. One thing I will say: Wiggins will probably either win or be nowhere.

      • Or perhaps he will chuck his road bike one last time.

        Just kidding my Sky friends.

        • I love the way he can throw a bike. He’s a pro.

    • Don’t need rain. He can ride back into the lead group if conditions are juuuust right. But, that’s it. Other teams know this and can/will act accordingly.

      Meanwhile, Sky has at least two other strong contenders and will waste them as they go off to ride their own races. Or, it will be Flanders and the Olympics all over again. Too much work, too early, and for no good reason anyway.

20. I wonder if the 3 wins has a ring of “lies, damn lies and statistics” about it? Yes, only 3 in 15 years, but how many years has Wiggins concentrated on the road? And when he has done so it’s been about tours, hence about not expending too much energy in one day, keeping in touch and winning with a great TT time.

    Throughout his time with FDJ and Cofidis the road was used to build form for the track. Up until Bejing 2008 his focus was track, so then we’re talking about 2009 to 2013 really.

    Nevertheless I also can’t see him winning. The only way I think is similar to Terpstra last year – but in reality he froze a little last year not expecting to be in that position and 2013 may have been Wiggins’s best chance of a win.

    • While I agree with the general sentiment that it will be difficult for Wiggins to win, he does have a chance. His sprint is not as bad as some make it out to be. If he arrives at the velodrome with Kristoff, or Degenkolb, or even Sagan or Van Avermaet, he’ll probably be outsprinted. But if gets there with guys like Boom, or Vanmarcke, he still has a chance. He won a field sprint in the 2012 Tour of Romandie after going for a long one, and if he arrives at the velodrome with guys who are decent but not spectacular sprinters, he has a chance. In fact, if people think he has to go solo to win, it might play in his favor, as he could team up with some guys who are confident they could beat him. But, all that aside, I think Sagan finally gets the monkey off his back and takes it.

    • He just needs to make the race into a time trial, to crank up the pace at some point and go clear over the cobbles, then hope the chase is marked by the likes of Thomas and Stannard.

21. Bring it on! I love this race so much. This one is more open than it has felt in years. Such a toss up. My money is on Kristoff who is riding out of his skin at the moment. Anything can happen with punctures and mechanicals but that’s true for all of them. I’d love to see Dege do it here and he’s my other pick. Sagan and Sep Vanmarke are off the boil. Stybar and Terpstra are impossible to pick between but I’d favour the cyclocross rider. Wiggins has the engine but listening to him here in the uk he doesn’t really sound like he wants to win – he’ll be happy with a respectable place and a shower. Would love to see G win as well but it’s not his year. Anyway, who knows?! This race is a total toss up and watch something completely unexpected happen- which will look totally obvious in retrospect! C’mon Kristoff!

22. I’ve got a feeling that a sky rider will get the teams first monument win. So that means, based on the usual accuracy of such feelings, that they’ll all be punctured, crashed or lost by the time the winner hits Roubaix. Spending the day preloading on sleep after a good, windy hack about this morning. No cobbles here, just an over zealous use of coarse chip seal that.i have developed many devious routes to avoid the worst of :). Kristoff can’t win again, can he?

23. I too think Degenkolb can take Kristoff (And the rest) in a sprint on the Velodrome. I can’t see Wiggins in the top 5 and I think the 4/5 that neither he nor Thomas finish in the Top 3 is a decent bet.
    I would love to see GVA soloing to the finish, he deserves a big win like this for his continuous agression, ambition and bad luck… It’s going to be great..

    If you fancy a punt on the race, have a peek here too.. http://www.cyclingbetting.co.uk/paris-roubaix-2015

    • What a brilliant ride by Degenkolb. The strongest rider all day, permanently in the first 10 on the road, smart enough to realise that Van Avermaet was too good a rider to let go with all those around him dithering. A sprinter to go in chase of those two guys? Incredible. Kelly-esque. A very profitable day for me, I hope a few of you got on, especially the Thomas/Wiggins bet, that was giving money away.. 🙂

24. In the absence of the great Fabian Cancellara I’m supporting Geraint Thomas. Despite the unpredictability of the race and the supposed need for options Sky should be doing everything they can to help him. Other teams work exclusively for one outstanding rider, Sky should do the same.

    With this in mind, if sideshow Brad’s stated aim is merely to finish (and this is no mean feat), I would hope, if for nothing more than the Wiggins P-R machine, he puts in at least one decent turn in support of the man most likely.

    Failing that, go Sep!

25. Really think people are underrating Greipel. The way he rode last Sunday he looks a better bet to place than Roelandts.

    • Agreed and at 40/1 it is a great value. If Thor can place — what was it?, 3rd?– Greipel can.

    • He was very good but has promised to play a team role again. Also it’s just that bit easier to be so visible between 200 and 240km than the final 20km. Still, 40-1 is a good price for an outsider.

26. Oh dear oh dear. I really wish Cycling News had not removed their comments section. I think we all agree that the Inner Ring produces articles of exceptional quality. But over the last few weeks, with the focus predominantly having been on the cobbled classics, the amount of wiggins and sky LOVE or wiggins and sky HATE in the readers’ comments has really dampened the intelligence and impartiality of the blog. Yes this blog is written in the English language, but I have never read it as an English blog. (Velo News articles have an American bias, for example; Cycling News has an English bias.) In today’s post, I can feel the Inner Ring is at pains to downplay Wiggins’ chances but the comments just shout about him both for an against. Please, do as the Inner Ring does and forget any nationalistic bias. I cringe every time I see the word W******s or Team S*y on here. There are so many more players to discuss.

    Sorry for the lengthy rant.

    • It’s generally a reaction to a comment that borders unnecessarily on the vitriolic, Beno.

      Anyway, for my part I hope for a great race. My money’s on Stybar.

      Walked the Carrefour de l’Arbre on Sat. That secteur gets worse every year, I’m sure of it. Lots of sportive riders digging in yesterday in a whole world of hurt.

    • Thanks, Beno!
      Could not have said it any better. May the best man win!

    • He does seem to provoke curious reactions in some and grab a lot of attention too.

27. Topsport Vlaanderen bring Edward Theuns and Jelle Wallays

    They stole one race from WT teams, I genuinely hope one or both podium.

    • In particular, the story of this Jelle Wallays is quite incredible. This guy won a Paris-Tours and a Dwars door Vlaanderen in less than one year, 2 big races while he has been nowhere in monuments so far. When he has an opportunity he delivers.
      I think a GVA for instance would just change all of his placings over the last year for these 2 victories.

28. Wow, great win by Degenkolb. Those last 12 km were really crazy, but he took the race into his own hands and won quite handily on the velodrome.

Comments are closed.