A day of wild suspense awaits. Ok, it’s sprint stage so the suspense will come late in the day but it could be more unpredictable than many a mountain stage.
Foix et raison: a move of 34 riders got clear amid shade temperatures in the high thirties Celsius, including Biniam Girmay who won the intermediate sprint ahead of Jasper Philipsen and Mads Pedersen. Girmay sat up, Philipsen would be dropped.
Jan Tratnik took off after the sprint with Mathias Vacek joining him before Alex Kirsch bridged across. The trio had a minute but Vacek was sitting on.
Quinn Simmons led up the Col de Montségur, trying to sit at the Lagrangian point between a speed sufficient to deter attackers and the pace Mads Pedersen could climb. Movistar’s Pablo Castrillo attacked near the top and was joined by Marco Frigo and they were joined by eight more including three from Lidl-Trek.
Castrillo made plenty of attacks but each one looked increasingly stale; his team mate Raul Garcia Pierna had lost his jump too. It was valiant but the Lidl-Trek trio were the strongest riders in the move: Vacek had been able to roll with Pogačar in the Tour de Suisse recently, Simmons an Aura Tour stage winner and Pedersen, well he hadn’t won a race this season yet but is among the best going for a finish like this. Their strength was impressive but so was their cohesion, carefully covering moves and never being caught out. They had force to spare and overcome a hesitation or mistake but didn’t need to deploy it. As much others may have wanted to believe they had a chance, reason said Lidl-Trek was always going to win in Foix.
Kévin Vauquelin tried to bomb the final corner but Mads Pedersen launched his sprint with a late bid for the combativity prize such was his finishing kick and dealt with the Frenchman in a way remiscient of ASO finish zone boss Stéphane Boury tackling a protester last year in Toulouse when Jonas Abrahamsen outsprinted Mauro Schmid.
Back in May team DS Steven Jongh came out to check the course and once he reached the finish called Pedersen to say it was perfect for him. Your blogger reconned the roads and thought the same. Pedersen takes the green jersey but now come the pure-sprinter friendly stages.
Torstein Træen is the new yellow jersey wearer, the Norwegian (trivia: with a Japanese grandmother) has 28 seconds on Sean Quinn, almost four minutes on Vacek and then nearly eight minutes on Tadej Pogačar. He’ll get to spend Stage 5 in yellow. Stage 6 is the Pyrenean mountain stage with the Aspin-Tourmalet combo. He’s finished 9th overall in the Vuelta so ought to be ready for a long spell in yellow. His hold on yellow depends whether Pogačar or others make incendiary moves on the Tourmalet. This probably suits Pogačar too.
The Route: 158km and 1,600m of vertical gain. If this is going to be branded a sprint stage it’s a mildly hilly one and can be exploited by breakaway riders but probably later on. The start has some big wide roads and an unmarked climb before Trie-sur-Baïse but all on rolling roads.
The spice comes later in the stage with some rolling roads with some sharp climbs, one is marked but others are not. Nothing big it could be exploited by some riders but plenty of teams with house sprinters have an interest in containing things and the short distance suits teams wanting to keep a lid on things. The more subtle interest is which teams work all day and which other ones try to free ride off the back of them.
The Finish: flat and often but not always wide boulevards in Pau and the same finish as 2024 when Jasper Philipsen won, including a sharp left turn by the flamme rouge.
The Contenders: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-PremierTech) and Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) are the two lead sprinters on paper. Philipsen has a slight advantage with this hilly course but the climbs today are mild but might sap Merlier by a small amount; but he will be fresh from not going in the breakaway and sitting out intermediate sprints.
Two opposing stories with Biniam Girmay (NSN) as a multiple Tour stage winner trying to get a big win again after an excellent 2024 vintage and things look promising, twice now he’s won intermediate sprints. Meanwhile Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CGM) is a debutant after his first Tour win and a big talent to deliver this.
It’ll be hard for someone else to win ahead of these four but no sprint is ever the same. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) can win bunch sprints but would like an uphill run to the line, just placing is good for his green jersey quest. Milan Fretin (Cofidis) is on the up. Fernando Gaviria (Caja Rural) would be fun after all these years. Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain), Max Kanter (XDS-Astana) and Pascal Ackermann (Jayco) don’t win very often. Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X) hasn’t won a World Tour sprint. Arvid de Kleijn (Tudor) is a flat sprint specialist and already struggling in the hills. Finally Pavel Bittner (Picnic-PostNL) has won Vuelta stages but it would be a miracle for his team if he wins.
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Philipsen, Girmay, Merlier |
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Kooij |
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Pedersen |
Weather: sunny and hot but not as infernal as the previous stage, 35°C with a NNE breeze of 10km/h.
TV: KM0 is at 2.15pm and the finish is forecast for 5.45pm CEST. If you’re rationing your viewing then tune in late to catch the approach and bunch finish. There’s plenty of gentle scenery to enjoy all day.
Right, back to the cycling.
The thing I noticed in today’s stage was the behaviour of Pog and Træen. Pog was laughing and joking with his teammates, so did not seem at all disturbed at losing the yellow jersey. This might possibly be due to the fact that Urška is back on her bike and won’t need surgery, so giving him a better reason to be happy than getting another fluffy lion.
Træen looked HAUNTED on the cooldown bike. He was staring into the distance with a blank expression as if he had shell-shock. He was in the red jersey during the Vuelta so should know somewhat what he’s in for, but he gives the impression of a condemned man heading to the gallows.
You would have thought any cyclist would love to be in the yellow jersey at the Tour de France, but it seems otherwise…
I watched Træen’s interview on TV and it was drier than the road surface. He seemed to be about as happy as if he’d found a €5 note on the floor, nice but with the concern it belong to someone else so not ready to spend it yet.
Hopefully it sinks in and he enjoys the start of the stage and all that follows soon.
He looked more enthusiast of his first ever TDF than of the current one…!
People are different. The yellow jersey means the world to Torstein, but he is the sort of person who keeps his emotions on the inside, combined with the fact that I dont think he had truly realized what had happened right after the stage.
If you watch some interviews, at least on norwegien TV, with the Uno-X staff and team mates (like Thor Hushovd and Jonas Abrahamsen), you will see how much the yellow jersey means to the team, and I can assure you it means just as much to Torstein, even if he doesn’t show it on TV.
+1
I think it was the shock of not only being in yellow in the world’s biggest race but also having a near 8-minute lead.
Absolutely loved that stage. Once it became clear that the gc favorites weren’t interested, the mathematics started to come into play, and it seems that Traeen is a master at the jersey snatch. Quinn was close but must have known he would be very unlikely to end up in yellow. For everyone else it was just a matter of how to beat Mads, and with the trucks he had with him in the break that also looked next to impossible. There’s something special about a race where the likes of Vacek and Simmons are just there to set up someone else’s win (although Vacek must have been contemplating his own possibilities).
Tomorrow for the fast men, and what a meh list that is compared to ten or fifteen years ago. Would be shocked if the winner isn’t either Philipsen or Merlier.
I was rooting for Mads but didn’t really love the stage. Fine but nothing special – too dominant, too strong a team, no real suspense ever. Like some of Pog’s win. Huge athletical merits but this season I’ve liked better some Giro stage as far as break mayhem is concerned. Or what Mads did on several occasions (eventually winning… or not) at the previous Giro.
Yeah, admittedly looked pretty obvious for the last half hour. Still super impressive when Mads finally let loose. It’s just a personal preference, but I really like the random breakaway stages when the virtual leader changes and you start to do the math about what the rest of the race is going to look like. See: O’Connor, Ben, 2024 Vuelta
Even before that, Montségur was the only moment of action in hours, given that the previous break from the break always looked doomed as Vacek sat on wheels. And even on Montségur, with such a long flattish way to the line after it, you already knew it was game over a couple of kms before the top, when it became so apparent that no serious gap was going to be possible.
Credits to Lidl-Trek for the show, a well-played game by great athletes is in itself a show, and Vacek, Simmons, Pedersen were a sight to behold, a true juggernaut. Yet, as in other wins by Pogi et al., other elements of the sport were indeed missing, namely… competition.
And I said that as a fan of both Pogi and Mads.
Not a rant, anyway, I mean, it was fine and surely a good break was needed after the first 3 stages. However, curiously enough, the only stage which I liked big time until now was the TTT – that is, the one whose result I didn’t like as a fanboy!
(I’d have much much much preferred Ganna, or maybe Remco or a miracle van der Poel… even if no need to say that it was greatly deserved).
“Aura Tour”, we’re gonna make the name stick!
I am all for this, especially as the swivel-eyed right-wingers running said region can’t stand the acronym Aura! For them it always has to be Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes in full, with hyphens.
Waerenskjold’s win at Het Nieuwsblad surely counts as a World Tour sprint win? He won a bunch sprint from a bunch of 50-odd riders.
I counted it out. A great win but not a pure bunch sprint, more a contest of who was left standing. He’s a strong rider and often a great lead-out because of his size but rarely able to get past the big names. Would like to be wrong as it’d be an underdog win and a new name to add to the top.
Lagrangian casually mentioned on a cycling blog. That’s why I love this place!
(love to see it.)
Joshua “Lagrange” Calvert will ring a bell for a few cycling fans. Lovely use of the term here.
I hadn’t heard of him, he looks like an interesting character. But I think the Lagrange mentioned here is a different Josh. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph-Louis_Lagrange .
I still prefer Inrng’s Giro 2024 application of the positional invariant to Alaphilippe, Hirt and Vansevenant.
https://inrng.com/2024/05/giro-stage-8-preview-prati-di-tivo/
I was going register to say exactly the same thing. Delightful, playful and precise writing that’s a joy to read.
Might not Sean Quinn try to take yellow from Træen in the coming days? I mean, this might be the best chance he ever gets to wear it.
He should try, but how to achieve it?
And has he already burnt too many matches? He’s been pretty aggressive in the past few stages, maybe he’s got the same energy on tap that Healy had last year
Generally speaking, not a kind TDF course for “scattisti” (even less so since Pogi and Del Toro decided to count themselves in the category).
And Sean Quinn belongs quite much to that category, at his own level of course.
This edition reminds me of some recent Giro route, breakaway friendly but with modestly selective finales to foster a “lottery effect”, thus allowing a spoil system of sort where even minor teams and athletes can grab a major prize on a lucky day.
Not a bad idea to implement a feeling of broader “competition” when the race risks to feel lacking of it.
The Pidcock, van der Poel, Healy, Gregoire, Schmid, Skjelmose might be asking themselves what they signed up for.
Back to Sean Quinn, I think that IF he could get to the finale tomorrow close enough to Traen, and IF Vacek or the Big Favs don’t let them too far behind, and IF he isn’t much more tired than Traen due to the previous climb (three huge IFs), THEN the Gavarnie’s very finish is more suited to him than to Traen, especially if team EF commits to the mission. They could make Quinn sneak away with their more explosive riders 5 or 3 kms from the finish line and take the needed difference. Not an easy feat of course.
If it doesn’t work like that and he’s again in contention, surviving tomorrow, then Ussel might be a good chance – and the only one. St. 7 and 8 are terribly flat in the last 40 kms or so, hence even a break would be chased by both Uno-X and the sprinters teams, while Le Lioran looks clearly advantage climbers and might turn into a slaughterfest anyway. I can’t see Sean Quinn still in the maillot jaune mix after Gavarnie *and* that.
If you discount Quinn taking yellow, the more relevant question is how long can Træen keep it?
I think Mr Ring’s input is needed!
Presumably UAE & Visma will take a back seat today and leave organising the show to Uno X and the sprinters teams.
I do wonder about how the excessive heat (even 35 degrees today is very hot) will affect the riders over a period of time. They are drinking huge amounts of fluid (Torsten Traen appeared to be drinking Danish “Irn Bru” at the finish yesterday) which must have an impact on their physiology. I know the riders “train” their digestive tract these days to enable taking in vast amounts of carbohydrate at specific intervals but surely processing such large amounts of fluid must have some impact on the body.
Tadej Pogacar made some comments about his health prior to the stage yesterday, it could be kidology but can tbelieve he would be the only one with issues.
It’d be a surprise if it’s not a sprint finish. Not a lot of willing participants for the breakaway either I would guess.
Health wise, the guys must be taken on buckets of electrolytes to keep going.
Riders train for liquid intake capacities as well – gut training is a well established training protocol, and they will each intimately know what their electrolyte needs are vis sweat testing, as well as their overall sweat rate per hour in given conditions, having collected rafts of longitudinal data over the years. Mr. & Mrs. average endurance punter have access to all the above via sports physiology clinics & companies such as Precision Nutrition.
Where I compete mostly in the trail running sphere, the current conversations surrounding heat training science, hydration & gut training are well advanced & several influential coaching voices follow what is happening in professional cycling very closely, looking at what the pros are doing & then sifting, sorting & distilling that information for recreational athletes.
I was training this spring for a substantial 100K ultra, and my coach added heat training protocols & gut training very early on in my training block. Glad she did, it was 33 degrees in Morzine on event day.
Doesn’t mean guzzling a ton of liquid/hr is any more pleasant – hydration (much like nutrition) fatigue is real.
What these guys are doing in these spheres is on the outer edges of current nutrition performance & is something to behold indeed!
Lagrangian optimisation I was already familiar but ” scattisti” is s new one for me., Gabriele.
Thank you to both of you.
I’m currently 200km north of today’s stage and whilst temperature is a bit lower today, humidity is nasty.
Predicting a bit of a go-slow stage.