Giro Stage 8 Preview

If Wednesday’s uphill ride Abetone had a lively finish it was short. Today’s arrival at Campitello Matese is a genuine summit finish with 13km at 7%, enough to scatter the field into small groups. Whoever takes the maglia rosa here can hope to hold it for a week.

Stage 7 Wrap: 264km, 7 hours 22 minutes and nothing to write about. Only the two minutes of the stage to watch: the first 30 seconds to check Alberto Contador, the final 90 seconds to see finale in Fiuggi. A win for Diego Ulissi who kissed the ground in Fiuggi; in the papal sense rather than the accidental as he was overwhelmed by the win. No wonder because since his return from a nine month ban he hadn’t cracked the top-10. Alberto Contador looked ok but later complained of pain for hours, today is the test. The finish suited Michael Matthews but he isn’t at 100% with pollen allergues and decided to lead out Simon Gerrans.

The Route: 186km, long enough. The Forca d’Acero is getting on for 30km at 4%, a real energy sapper before a long descent interrupted by some small climb but all on regular roads.

The Finish: the profile says plenty, a steady climb of 6.9% for 13km before a brief drop to the finish line. The climb is a regular wide road, wide that’s designed to allow easy access to the ski station at the top throughout winter, the kind you can drive a bus up.

Fabio Aru Giro 2015

The Contenders: this could be a stage with two races, one for the breakaway riders to contest the win and another among the GC riders behind. Normally the GC teams would set a fierce pace to the foot of the final climb but Tinkoff-Saxo will want to shepherd Alberto Contador while Astana will be wary of putting Fabio Aru in the race lead because it could mean leading the race all week.

For breakaway picks, let’s think of Jan Polanc (Lampre-Merida) again, Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto-Jumbo), Ilnur Zakarin and Pavel Kotchetkov (Katusha), Pieter Weening (Orica-Greenedge), Enrico Barbin (Bardiani-CSF) or Janier Acevedo (Cannondale-Garmin) as they’re all riders who can climb well but sit far down on GC but just some names among others.

Among the GC candidates Fabio Aru looks the most aggressive, even if Alberto Contador was 100% Aru seems to have the faster sprint, Richie Porte is content to track the moves. Contador looked fine yesterday, if he was suffering he did a good job of masking it when the TV cameras were on him. Wounded pride could have him surprising today plus he’s got a long track record of bluffing… but I think this is too far-fetched, he doesn’t need to surprise his rivals. Today is D-Day for him, double-day, because if he loses chunks of time then I can’t see him riding all the way to Milan just to collect a finisher’s medal. Indeed the long Forca d’Acero could be telling if he has to pull on the bars for an hour.

Back to the racing and Mikel Landa is a second option to snipe the win for Astana as he seems to be climbing with the best, while Porte and Aru mark each other he could clip away. Otherwise Roman Kreuziger, Katusha’s Yuri Trofimov, FDJ’s Alex Geniez or maybe Nippo-Vini Fantini captain Damiano Cunego will be in the mix. We’ll know if Rigoberto Uran can salvage something: the first week has ended and we could be down to Porte and Aru only for the GC if the Colombian hasn’t recovered from his cold. Kreuziger will be an interesting one to watch, does he have room to play his own cards now or will be riding beside Contador no matter what? This will give us the best clue about Contador’s state of health.

Aru, Porte
Landa, Kreuziger, Trofimov, Cunego, Contador, Barbin, Geniez, Pirazzi, Van den Broeck, Zakarin

Weather: cloudy, cooler conditions with just 21°C and rain showers.

TV: the feed is supposed to start around 3.00pm and the finish is forecast for 5.15pm Euro time. Cyclingfans and steephill.tv both have links to feeds and stream.

Monte Carpegna

The Giro is: formulaic. The race often follows a similar route every year with a dash south along one coast and a return up the other coast before the entire final week spent crossing the Alps. Money means big ski resorts in the Alps can bid for stages while places like today’s finish at Campitello Matese probably have to blow a multi-year marketing budget to bring the Giro for a day. The Apennines mountain range that runs along the spine of Italy offers plenty of climbing – like Monte Carpegna pictured above – and if they’re not big on altitude there are many tough climbs. The Alps are wonderful but it’s fun to imagine a Giro without the Alps for just one year, a break in the formula.

27 thoughts on “Giro Stage 8 Preview”

  1. Concur on the classics length stage assessment of a snoozefest, or rather background noise while I clean the kitchen.

    Aru for the win, stage and jersey.

  2. Should Aru attack and take time over superior TTs Contador and Porte or stay put so he does not hold the jersey for a week…?? I think if you can attack, then attack as you never know what tomorrow can bring..

  3. I chose this stage for my visit to the Giro a) for the reasons you described – not a great stage for TV b) it was close to where I am (Rome) and it turned out to be great fun. In case anyone wants to know more about that –
    http://cycleitalia.blogspot.it/2015/05/giro-ditalia-2015-more-living-dream.html
    Today I look (on TV) for attacks on Pistolero. They gave him a day off yesterday, but I can’t see rivals who have the energy not having a go at him today.

  4. Using the vaguely similar 42km TT stage from last year’s Giro as a rough form guide, we see that Aru finished 2:55 down on Uran. In the 2014 Vuelta over a 37km TT with some more hills he lost 1:48 to the Colombian. Therefore since this year’s Giro features a longer and flatter TT, it’s possible Aru could lose up to 4 minutes to a rider like Uran or Porte considering them TT form they’ve shown so far this year, and possibly quite a bit to Contador too although his form is not as well known (and by stage 14 he may still be feeling the effects of his fall). Therefore I think Aru really has to attack on a stage like this and try and bank as much time as he can on GC before the TT. If he can’t drop Porte then he’ll have literally a mountain of work to do in the final week.

  5. I like the combination of a long stage before the mountain-top finish. Riders will feel more cooked than expected, while others will be unexpectedly feel better. A GT is a suite of exhausting marathons.

    • +1 I think we have to suffer the odd dull stage for the good of the rest of the race. Stephen Roach said in a column yesterday a grand tour should be about endurance. The fatigue from yesterday will hopefully help make today even better.

      • It’s different for viewers and riders. Those viewing can be selective and tune in on the right days or at the right time to see the action but the riders feel a bit put upon. Yesterday wasn’t even that gruelling, a slow average speed and recovery ride watts, although obviously for seven hours.

        • “Put upon”? Cue up the violins. 264 kms was a long slog for sure, but compared to the golden age of cycling the modern riders have it pretty damn easy – no double stages, a fancy team bus (and even a fancier, private one you can sleep in if you’re REALLY special) feather-light bicycles, team staff to do pretty much everything but wipe their a__es, etc. Nobody is stopping any of them getting a real job if they’re just too “put upon” in this SPORT.

          • the old ‘it’s not like the old days’ adage . I don’t watch cycling for how good a teams bus is, i watch for the cycling. And the cycling is still as good

          • Nothing I wrote in my comment claimed the racing wasn’t as good, Mr. Caz. It was just that I don’t think the riders should consider themselves “put upon” especially with what those who came before them faced. And one can certainly argue the sport’s not in the best “health” in a lot of ways despite all the funds being spent on things like a fancy bus, etc.

          • Not that long ago, the TdF would include one or two stages beyond 300km (sometimes it would be a boring stage, sometimes not), and riders didn’t feel anything but that the race was like that. Give me one decent reason why today’s riders should feel any different.

        • Anyway, in Italy 2M people watched Friday’s stage on TV for the last 40′ at least. The share was about 17%. Highest number of viewers till now (tomorrow we’ll have today’s figures), even if I must say the race is generally doing great not only among hardcore fans, if we look at TV figures: around 1.7M also on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

      • Orica’s Chaves fell out of GC today saying he suffered because of the long hours of saddle they had yesterday. He got worn out, wasn’t used to that kind of long range riding.

  6. Does Diego Ulissi remind anyone else of Michele Bartoli?! His build, riding style and even his face look similar i think. Before his blooper last year I thought he was a potential classics winner, even more so now after a finish like that.

  7. Lots of talk about Contador’s shoulder but there hasn’t been many updates on his knee after the crash. I wonder how that could affect his climbing today?

  8. In all likelihood, this was Contador’s weakest day. Aru and Porte failed to capitalise.
    And apart from Aru’s first attack, they really failed to try: in the last 3km, Intxausti was riding faster than the Maglia Rosa group and even Cunego could ride away.
    Aru’s and Porte’s attacks in the last km were too little – didn’t even drop Cataldo – and too late – not the way to put Contador under pressure.
    I find it very hard to believe that none of the other favourites could ride faster than they did today – a lot of riders stayed with them until the last km – and I think it comes down to guts. Contador’s got those in spades – and would never ride as Aru and Porte did today.
    To win a grand tour you have to be brave. If you wait and wait, you can leave it too long (as Schleck showed in 2011).
    Contador has this race in the bag – barring further injury or a crash.
    Oh, and well done to the director to miss the big favourites finishing (other than the last 100m). Great shot of the cars.

    • I’m not sure Porte wants the Maglia Rose yet, puts a hell of a lot more pressure on Contador at the moment to keep it. Aru seems keen to take it, but again, that will mean Astana having to work much harder.

    • I’m not sure that the fact that Porte didn’t even try is good news for his rivals. Maybe he’s just sticking to a plan. He’s defending himself well, apparently without much effort, and with the TT on his side, he could win this inflicting just a couple of good blows on the others. Obviously, given Contador’s conditions it may have been interesting to test him, but Sky haven’t exactly been showing these last years that their best weapon is reading the race and playing it by ear, whereas the planning thing looks like their favourite field.

      • Too true about Sky: Contador’s injury should have changed the plan. The past has shown that Porte is particularly good at time trials (although not that superior to Contador), but it has also shown that Porte often has a bad day.
        As for Aru, his time trialling will have to have been massively improved for him to get anywhere near first place.
        These reasons, plus Uran’s inferiority in the climbs, are why I think Contador has it.

  9. While I may be shouted down for saying this, I think Contador is foxing a little. I’m sure his shoulder probably aches however there are plenty of legal drugs that he can take to help mask that pain. I say this because they say that the worst thing to do with a painfully dislocated shoulder is to lift your arm above your shoulder. If you have access to the TV footage, before Contador went on stage to collect the jersey he can be seen doing exactly this, without any sign of pain, as he adjusts his hat and smooths his hair. He then walked on stage with his arm hanging limp. Either his painkillers are working a treat or his injury isn’t as bad as he’s making out. Personally I think Voekler would be proud.

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