The Spin: Gent-Wevelgem Preview

Saturday, 23 March 2013

Once a midweek consolation for the sprinters amidst the classics season, this is a World Tour race on a Sunday and a full-on dress rehearsal for next Sunday’s Tour of Flanders.

Mont Cassel, the Kemmelberg and more difficulties await but the biggest threat comes from the weather with snow likely. This could change the route or even force a cancellation of the race. A confident press release last night said the race “is sure go ahead” but if a race can stop traffic, it can’t control the weather. The start has been moved to Gistel nearer the coast but nobody can be sure until tomorrow morning. Should the race go ahead then the weather will remain a real danger with winds of 50km/h.

With fingers crossed for the race, here is preview with all the usual commentary on the route, TV timings and two forecasts, one for the weather and one for the race.

The Route
Another race with a false name, Gent-Wevelgem does not start in Gent. Instead Deinze should be host to the start, a town of about 30,000 people some 25km away from Gent. It was the hometown of Karel Van Wijnendaele, the journalist who started the Tour of Flanders race in 1913. However bad weather has seen the start moved to Gistel towards the coast… the hometown of Johan Museeuw, the “Lion of Flanders” from the 1990s.

The course is 234km long and heads west to the coast, through Tielt, Torhout and Gistel before reaching the port and resort of Oostende. Here the race hugs the coast. In years past the race has seen crosswinds shred the peloton to pieces, with riders blasted by the sand blown off the beach but Sunday’s edition looks calm, the kind of day when a visit to the Belgian coast could almost be a pleasant outing. See the detailed weather forecast below.

The race turns away from the coast and heads inland, crossing into France and past old coal mines and slag heaps that tell of the region’s industrious past and dull present. It’s here the climbing begins with Mont Cassel (Casselberg) tackled twice, once on each side. Onwards to the Mont des Cats (Catsberg) in Dutch, These French climbs are paved, proper roads and whilst short and steep, are not savage. Back into Belgium and the race twists and turns to include as many bergs as possible in order to soften up the field and prevent an inevitable bunch sprint. In particular the Kemmelberg is climbed twice.

The Kemmelberg
Once the site of slaughter in the First World War, the Kemmel now welcomes all to ride up its cobbled road. It has been used in this race since 1955 when it was wholly unpaved. Now a mix of tarmac and cobbles, there are several routes up and down and recent editions have seen the race take a more sensible descent after the cobbles provoked bouncing water bottles, bikes and even riders to fell others in the race, notably Jimmy Casper.

This sanitisation means the climb can be less decisive than in the past but it remains a rough climb where riders tend to pick the dirt path to the side of the cobbles; and even if the descent is on tarmac it is narrow and twisty. With the Kemmelberg out of the way there are 30km to the finish.

The Contenders
Peter Sagan? As I said in Milan-Sanremo, his greatest weakness is his reputation because nobody wants to find themselves with him with a kilometre to go and if they do, then like Gerald Ciolek, they’ll patiently wait on his wheel. But this race offers a selective route.

People say Team Sky need a result. They made their ambitions clear for the classics season but have yet to get the result they want and consequently people are wondering what they’re doing. None of this matters really because a win in the Tour of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix will change everything. But they come with a galaxy of stars, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Geraint Thomas, Ian Stannard and extra sprint options with Chris Sutton and Bernhard Eisel.

Another team where it’s hard to pick the leader is Omega Pharma-Quickstep because Mark Cavendish and Tom Boonen ride together. Last year Cavendish saw the lead group form in front of his eyes and ride away, he was just a few wheels off the pace whilst Boonen made the front group, crucially with three team mates to drive the pace and take the group away from others. The same story too with BMC Racing where Philippe Gilbert, Taylor Phinney, Daniel Oss and Greg Van Avermaet can each hope of the win.

Fabian Cancellara is obviously strong but no matter how good you are, a 50km/h headwind spells trouble and it’s hard to see him soloing away this time although it would be possible if his chasers can’t club together. André Greipel missed the move too last year but Lotto-Belisol come with Jurgen Roelandts as insurance, he punctured at the wrong time in the GP E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Orica-Greenedge’s best bet seems to be Sebastien Langeveld who is now assuming “dark horse” status for the remainder of the cobbled classics although Matthew Goss is a sprint option. The long flat finish suits the sprinters meaning this race is harder for the likes of Juan-Antonio Flecha or the impressive Andrey Amador but the weather could change everything. John Degenkolb of Argos-Shimano, Daniele Bennati of Saxo-Tinkoff and Arnaud Démare of FDJ as outside sprint picks. Wildcard invites Europcar come with Damien Gaudin and Seb Turgot, both in form and remember Turgot made the podium in Roubaix last year.

The Scenario
Often a bunch finish sprint albeit from a smaller group the grim conditions suggest even fewer riders will make it to the finish. In fact you wonder if riders will bail on this race given the Tour of Flanders next weekend? The cold could force a lot of riders to stop and therefore make it harder for the teams with sprinters to set up their riders.

Still, this is the classic for Mark Cavendish to win. You sense the Tour of Flanders is for other OPQS riders and this one is for him. If it becomes a war of attrition in the cold perhaps we could see Ian Stannard and J-A Flecha together, each turning on the power, their only weapon.

But given we don’t know if the race is going to happen, predicting the winner is even harder…

Weather
Last year was hot enough to make the finish line photo hazy but no such luck this time with snow threatening the race.

  • Temperatures will range between -5°C and 3°C (23-37°F )
  • Overnight and early morning snow will turn to sleet and then dry out leaving cloudy skies
  • A 50km/h wind will blow from the east meaning an early tailwind and a powerful headwind to the finish line. But for much of the race it means a crosswind and it will only make the race harder

Given all this the race organisers are concerned about another Milan-Sanremo. Remember Milan-Sanremo was cold but the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad was colder, so cold that men and women alike had to go to hospital with frozen eyeballs (light tissue damage, not frozen solid of course). The difference with Sanremo was that the snow was wet and heavy and soaked the riders to the skin. The race route could be changed, for example there’s talk the loop into France for Mont Cassel and Le Mont des Cats could be scrapped but the snow knows no borders.

The latest is that the race is on but will start from Gistel near the coast. Then each climb and descent will be checked one by one and those that are ridable will be used but if some are risky they’ll be deleted from the route.

TV
Local coverage starts at 2.20pm Euro time with the finish expected from 4.40pm to 5.10pm Eurotime. Belgian TV has the race and cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv will offer links to more video streams.

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{ 13 comments }

Frank March 23, 2013 at 1:58 pm

Stannard!

Mr. Anderson March 23, 2013 at 2:42 pm

Concerning Cancellara, he may like to win this, but I’d think he could relax a little now & let others tow him around with the knowledge of yesterday’s victory. Or take advantage & put the nail in the coffin. One or the other.

Kasper Thomsen March 23, 2013 at 5:38 pm

Accoridding to Sky’s website the route have been altered: http://www.teamsky.com/article/0,27290,28653_8583373,00.html

Kasper Thomsen March 23, 2013 at 5:39 pm

Which you already had noted… Sorry :p

ano March 23, 2013 at 6:39 pm

on the weather: the wind transport cold, dry arctic air straight from Nova zembla to the low Countries tomorrow. The sun will have warmed the air a bit but the temperatures will stil be around 0°C. But the arctic eastern wind will be the biggest problem. They are warning that tomorrowmorning the windchill can go down to -15°C or even lower on the most exposed parts. At noon, the sun will have warmed the country but 50 km/h arctic wind is not nothing.

ano March 23, 2013 at 6:42 pm

This is mostly for the Netherlands, Belgium is more south so maybe +5°C for the windchill

Stefano March 23, 2013 at 10:41 pm

Being from the Midwest, I know what it’s like riding in actual temps around freezing with wind chills well below freezing; did it all the time when I lived up there. It’s do-able no problem for a couple hours (my standard cold-weather ride time). However, 5 hours (+/-) is a different story. If it’s really as cold/windy as they predict it will be interesting to see how teams manage to keep their riders warm. Also will be interesting to see how many abandon the race. This is a time for the the REAL classics hard men to show themselves.
Regarding Cancellara, I’d be very surprised to see him make a serious effort to win this one. Ride it for training & save your energy for De Ronde & P-R.

Larry T. March 24, 2013 at 8:36 am

These are SPRING classics so I’m hoping spring shows up soon…by next Sunday so I can ride the citizen Ronde without freezing my a__ off. Going there from Sicily was a gamble anyway..but no matter what, I’ll be there on Sunday to watch the real guys in action.

The Inner Ring March 24, 2013 at 9:45 am

It’s wintry everywhere, the normally sunny Corsica is getting bad weather today for the Criterium International too

ano March 24, 2013 at 9:38 am

In zeeland, not far away from the belgian coast and with normally the same weather, the windchill is now -12°C, luckily West-Flanders is the only place in Belgium where it didn’t snow last night.

Anonymous March 24, 2013 at 10:21 am

Eurosport 1/2 Germany can’t seem to be able to decide between Crit Int, Catalunya and Gent-Wev, so they apparently leave out Gent…
At least I’ve got the Eurosport Player – thanks for nothing -.-

mrboba March 24, 2013 at 6:02 pm

What were the odd ‘glasses’ europcar were wearing today? here’s a blurry grab: http://i.imgur.com/u3CGej1.jpg

Josh March 24, 2013 at 7:03 pm

I noticed those too. One guy looked like he was wearing MC Hammer glasses, the others’ seemed like old-timey Steampunk welding sunglasses. Neither were advisable fashions.

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